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msu35 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(01-31-2023 06:41 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Well half the college basketball teams qualify as Q4 games at home. So that's why there are so many games in that category - even for Top 50 teams.

There is no denying that top teams in the NET play more Q1 and Q2 games, and play fewer Q4 games. Now the "feedback loop" has some to do with that. But their scheduling also does. That's what I'm focused on.

I think if we cut out all Q2 and Q3 games and moved them to Q4 games, it would be disastrous for us - even if we blew them out.

And thanks for the coding. If anyone has guidance for that, I'd appreciate it.

You seem to not be getting the point at all if you're stating, "There is no denying that top teams in the NET play more Q1 and Q2 games, and play fewer Q4 games." Really? That's not the takeaway that the data reflects. Question. Why is there such a sudden and precipitous decline from Q1 to Q2 that isn't present with the other tiers and then a mirrored ramp up to Q4? This should show you that having a significant number of Q4 games where you can run up the score is part of the strategy, just like having a bunch of Q1 wins is a distinguishing factor among top teams.

I also believe you're misunderstanding the approach that I'm suggesting, which is based on what the most successful teams are doing. To be clear, I advocate cutting as many Q3 games as possible and shifting them to Q4 teams that we can blow out. The Q2 games will come as an artifact of conference play and through natural attrition as anticipated Q1 teams slip. It will initially be more difficult for us to get a significant number of Q1 games, but if the rest of the conference will follow this type of scheduling, the AAC can create its own feedback loop to the benefit of all teams. What I've stated is not wrong and there is nothing to ponder. It is a documented fact that the NET absolutely rewards blowouts in an unlimited fashion. Are you saying you can't see the proof in the NET rankings for teams compared to their performance?

I'll take this one step further and chart it out for you because visualizing data isn't necessarily easy when it's presented in a table. Look at the line graph and tell me you don't see something interesting with regards to the top 50 teams. Notice how only that group is an anomaly? All of the other teams have a similar proportion with the exception of the top 50. Of course they should have more Q1 games scheduled as a top 50 team will be playing a higher standard of competition in general and being in a P5 conference helps with Q1 opportunities. That's not really the interesting part, it's the Q2, Q3, Q4 side of the graph that illustrates what I'm saying.

Hear me now and believe me later, but the truth is the key facet is blowing out weak competition to run up the NET efficiency metric. Look at FAU and Boise State again and tell me how they're ranked 20 spots above us. Take any other team with a similar schedule and win ratio. I bet you that they will be higher than us in the NET (likely much more so) if they have a significant number of games with wins of 20 points or more, irrespective the quadrant of the opponent.

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Edit: Just re-read this to make sure I didn't have too many typos, and my tone comes across not as I intended and i apologize if it seems strong. I'm just passionate about this because for all this time we've been led to believe that the NET caps wins and it never made any sense. The team has always been so underrated and undervalued with regards to the tournament. Much of the perceived tone is really just frustration on my part for us having to deal with such a rigged system and an utter lack of meaningful transparency. So please don't misinterpret the verve as anything directed towards any individuals. It's just me being very passionate about finally understanding what the heck is going on at the NCAA and what we can do to fight fire with fire.
(This post was last modified: 01-31-2023 10:39 PM by msu35.)
01-31-2023 07:30 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
The part that I think you're missing is that half of all NCAA teams can qualify as Q4 games. It's not a simple 4-way split of 363 teams to put them into quadrants. Only the top 21% of teams can qualify as Q1 games (top 75 teams in away games), but up to 56% can qualify as a Q4 (bottom 200 teams in home games). You have over 2x as many teams falling into Q4.

So obviously Q4 games are going to be large - no matter the rankings grouping a team falls into. Notice in your graph that the blue line is the lowest for Q4 games and the slope is less. Top 50's are playing fewer Q4 games - absolutely and relatively.

And another obvious reason for the high % of Q4 games relative to Q's 2-3 (for top 50 teams) - buy games. All top programs have a few and they are most always going to be Q4 games.

There are plenty of top 10 schools who have minimized Q4 games:
#3 Alabama (4)
#6 St Mary's (4)
#7 Kansas (3)
...
And then more closer to our resume:
#17 Creighton (4)
#26 San Diego St (1)
#27 Arky (4)
...

So we are certainly disagreeing on the "strategic scheduling" theory that would have Memphis max out on Q4 games.
What we certainly agree on is that Memphis has not been beating teams up like we should have, and it has softened our metrics as a result. Why? I think much of it has to do with missing A-lo and Malco for so much of the season. The other is our tendency to take our foot off the gas.

Conclusion? I don't think a radical change is needed to Memphis's scheduling philosophy - other than adding some more potential Q1 OOC. This year looked like a good mix, coming into the season. I think we just need to keep the foot on the gas for these 2nd halves of dominating wins.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2023 05:03 PM by Tiger87.)
02-01-2023 04:49 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(02-01-2023 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The part that I think you're missing is that half of all NCAA teams can qualify as Q4 games. It's not a simple 4-way split of 363 teams to put them into quadrants. Only the top 21% of teams can qualify as Q1 games (top 75 teams in away games), but up to 56% can qualify as a Q4 (bottom 200 teams in home games). You have over 2x as many teams falling into Q4.

So obviously Q4 games are going to be large - no matter the rankings grouping a team falls into. Notice in your graph that the blue line is the lowest for top 50 teams and the slope is less. Top 50's are playing fewer Q4 games - absolutely and relatively.

And another obvious reason for the high % of Q4 games relative to Q's 2-3 (for top 50 teams) - buy games. All top programs have a few and they are most always going to be Q4 games.

There are plenty of top 10 schools who have minimized Q4 games:
#3 Alabama (4)
#6 St Mary's (4)
#7 Kansas (3)
...
And then more closer to our resume:
#17 Creighton (4)
#26 San Diego St (1)
#27 Arky (4)
...

So we are certainly disagreeing on the "strategic scheduling" theory that would have Memphis play only Q1 and Q4 games.
What we certainly agree on is that Memphis has not been beating teams up like we should have, and it has softened our metrics as a result. Why? I think much of it has to do with missing A-lo and Malco for so much of the season. The other is our tendency to take our foot off the gas.

Conclusion? I don't think a radical change is needed to Memphis's scheduling philosophy - other than adding some more potential Q1 OOC. This year looked like a good mix, coming into the season. I think we just need to keep the foot on the gas for these 2nd halves of dominating wins.

It's fair to disagree. We can continue to do what we do and allow lesser teams to leapfrog us in the NET. That is the reality. There is no drawback to playing a soft Q4 team compared to a Q2 or Q3 team that could potentially hand us a loss that hurts. The likelihood of us losing to a Q4 is dramatically reduced. Why do you think they're Q4 in the first place?

If you look at the schedules of the top teams, outside of conference play, they highly preference Q4 to Q3. Why is that? It's in the data. There is no question. Eliminating non-conference Q2 and Q3 games, and scheduling only Q1 and Q4 teams where there is an option is the absolute best approach for optimal NET placement. Those are the facts.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2023 05:25 PM by msu35.)
02-01-2023 05:08 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #24
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
Just FYI, the B-12 is projected to get 9 of their 10 schools NCAA tourney invites, check the number of Q1 games they play & how close most of the scores are.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2023 08:57 AM by Atlanta.)
02-02-2023 08:44 AM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(02-02-2023 08:44 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Just FYI, the B-12 is projected to get 9 of their 10 schools NCAA tourney invites, check the number of Q1 games they play & how close most of the scores are.

Texas Tech is 12-10 with nine Q1 losses, but they're still ranked 64. Guess what? Of course they have a bunch of Q4 blowout wins, which elevates them, and has them ranked in the top 100 with barely a winning season. Memphis and the AAC need to get with the program, and create our own feedback loop soon. I don't want to belabor the point, but everything I've stated in these two threads is absolutely the best way to ensure optimal tournament placement and NET ranking, even with a sub-par season. Why wouldn't a team want that?

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02-02-2023 10:56 AM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #26
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(02-02-2023 08:44 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Just FYI, the B-12 is projected to get 9 of their 10 schools NCAA tourney invites, check the number of Q1 games they play & how close most of the scores are.

I see 8, but there might have been an update since the 31st. What is your point with close Q1 games and how close they are?
02-02-2023 10:57 AM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(02-02-2023 10:57 AM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2023 08:44 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Just FYI, the B-12 is projected to get 9 of their 10 schools NCAA tourney invites, check the number of Q1 games they play & how close most of the scores are.

I see 8, but there might have been an update since the 31st. What is your point with close Q1 games and how close they are?

I believe it was an awkwardly worded way to say that they all have roughly the same number of Q1 games on their schedule through their conference play (e.g. the feedback loop I'm talking about.)
02-02-2023 11:01 AM
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fsquid Offline
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Post: #28
RE: new AAC hoops scheduling
(01-31-2023 05:50 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  
(01-31-2023 03:51 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Up the non conference a bit and we'll be fine. No need for the gimmicks. Also, keep it at 18 conference games.

I don’t think we can up it much more than we did this season

based on what I've read in the media, the non-conference will be a bit higher next season. One thing we really need to start doing is win that first game of the in season tournaments. Better to play the two on the winners bracket than the 2 on the losers.
02-03-2023 08:47 PM
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