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If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
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Aztecgolfer Online
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Post: #81
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-29-2023 06:41 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 05:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 11:26 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 02:22 AM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  We are assuming that there is a 5-6 year contract option available at a price a school will be willing to sign a GoR.

Also lots of assuming on this message board and elsewhere that FOX and ESPN prefer the Pac survives as Power 5 conference — as opposed to collapse whereby the B1G, Big XII and MWC absorb the remains.

The B1G presidents and FOX/ESPN bigwigs may not want the blood of the Pac-12's demise (or a messy lawsuit) on their hands, but they're certainly not going to turn their backs on consolidation that ultimately benefits all of their bottom lines.

Not one of those entities has publicly questioned the Big XII commissioner's open pursuit of Pac-12 schools and a "coast to coast" conference. Yappy is serving both their purpose and his own by trying to destabilize the Pac and (further) weaken Kliavkoff's negotiating position

I don't think we should call him "Yappy" as he has proven to be both an astute negotiator and an excellent Commissioner overall. Again, all Cattle, very little hat.

As far as destabilizing the Pac, he's just looking to capitalize on the current opportunity. If this were 2034 then he'd be talking about the importance of Eastward Expansion for the big 12. If the Pac wants to stop getting attacked from all sides then they need to sign a new media rights deal and a GoR, as long of one as they can get everyone to agree to.

I think that the Pac's situation is perhaps more dire than many of us realized. Kliavkoff isn't competing with the new big 12 deal anymore, he's now competing with the revenues from a combined big/Pac. So, their current options seem to be:

1. Stay together with the knowledge that UO/UW are likely leaving in the 2030-2036 time frame, causing huge destabilization that would likely leave several current schools out of the dance. Get to remain for now with 9 other schools that are aligned with you academically, socially, politically, etc etc. $22m media rights deal.

2. Leave as an entire group to the big 12. UO/UW are still leaving in the 2030-2036 time frame, but you'd still have a 20 team conference that would be clearly superior to the ACC. 40% of the new conference is aligned with you academically, socially, politically, but maybe you'll be able to influence the rest into coming around to your way of thinking down the road... $42m media rights deal, plus another couple million from NCAAT units. No more worries about retaliation from Comcast for stealing their $50m.

So, it's a $20m+ gap where Kliavkoff sits right now. What if CAL of all schools ends up being the catalyst here. They can get a $45m big 22 deal put together, steal $10m from UCLA every year, and all of a sudden they're almost on par with UCLA's revenues, but they get the benefit of staying together with the rest of the Pac schools and having significantly lower travel expenses and significantly fewer pissed off alumni. They'd say "we really wanted to stay together as a Pac 12, but once UCLA left us behind we had to scramble for the benefit of every school. This new big 22 helps us all immensely and keeps us together as a group".

They were never competing with the Big 12 deal. They are going to beat that number. This doomsday Pac-12 crap just gets old. First, people have numbers on the Pac-12 media deal that they pull out of the air. Then people are apparently in touch with the Oregon and Washington leadership and know that they won't sign a GOR. There is always a possibility they never get an invite to the Big Ten.

Leave as an entire group to the Big 12? Really? I think the PAC schools would unanimously reject that.

Yep, it wasn't that long ago that the AAC wonks were talking about which B12 schools they should add once TX and OU announced their move to the SEC.
01-30-2023 04:54 PM
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Aztecgolfer Online
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Post: #82
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-29-2023 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder if the Big 10 could get $100M/yr for a Big 10 after dark package and use the $100M to pay Oregon and Washington a reduced payout.

Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado join the Big 12.


With the expanded CFP you got to wonder why UW and Oregon would want to leave. They have a better chance at a national title by staying in the PAC.
01-30-2023 04:56 PM
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Aztecgolfer Online
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Post: #83
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-30-2023 12:50 AM)46566 Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 12:30 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 02:22 AM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  We are assuming that there is a 5-6 year contract option available at a price a school will be willing to sign a GoR. ...

Baked into the question as posed is that we are in scenario where the best deal available to the PAC10 (maybe +X) does not see Washington and Oregon starting talks with the Big12.

If that's the case, the best deal requires a GOR, and a deal without a GOR will be for less.

One wrinkle would be where a 7 year deal gets the best money, and UW/UOregon are reluctant to grant more than 5 or 6, but that is a different question from the one posed. "Not signing a GOR, period" directly says even a 5 year GOR is off the table.

Unless Washingon and Oregon are in talks with the Big Ten that are making headway, they are going to sign a short GOR. You cannot turn down millions of dollars on the table because "maybe something will change". Eventually it comes time to stop dithering.

As far as it seems anyone on this site would know, perhaps the rumors of the deal getting worked out "in the first quarter" are on target, and they are just finalizing the mechanics of how the transition of the P12N content to ESPN is going to work.

I see the big 12 going to the 4 corners schools instead of Washington or Oregon. Locking up Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and getting back into Colorado has to be more than what Oregon and Washington bring. You probably count New Mexico into the Big 12 TV deal.


New Mexico? Terrible football program.
01-30-2023 04:58 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #84
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-30-2023 04:56 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder if the Big 10 could get $100M/yr for a Big 10 after dark package and use the $100M to pay Oregon and Washington a reduced payout.

Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado join the Big 12.


With the expanded CFP you got to wonder why UW and Oregon would want to leave. They have a better chance at a national title by staying in the PAC.

For better or worse, that simply has never been the driving force of conference realignment.

It's about maximizing conference-level revenue even if it makes the road to a national title tougher.
01-30-2023 05:51 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #85
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-30-2023 05:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 04:56 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder if the Big 10 could get $100M/yr for a Big 10 after dark package and use the $100M to pay Oregon and Washington a reduced payout.

Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado join the Big 12.


With the expanded CFP you got to wonder why UW and Oregon would want to leave. They have a better chance at a national title by staying in the PAC.

For better or worse, that simply has never been the driving force of conference realignment.

It's about maximizing conference-level revenue even if it makes the road to a national title tougher.

Well yeah! You may get a bid for being the PAC champ but if you are 35 million behind in media revenue, another 11-13 million behind in gate, you aren't going to compete! That's pretty much it!
01-30-2023 06:27 PM
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Aztecgolfer Online
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Post: #86
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-30-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 05:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 04:56 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder if the Big 10 could get $100M/yr for a Big 10 after dark package and use the $100M to pay Oregon and Washington a reduced payout.

Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado join the Big 12.


With the expanded CFP you got to wonder why UW and Oregon would want to leave. They have a better chance at a national title by staying in the PAC.

For better or worse, that simply has never been the driving force of conference realignment.

It's about maximizing conference-level revenue even if it makes the road to a national title tougher.

Well yeah! You may get a bid for being the PAC champ but if you are 35 million behind in media revenue, another 11-13 million behind in gate, you aren't going to compete! That's pretty much it!


February 22, 1980.
01-30-2023 11:00 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #87
RE: If Washington and Oregon say, "We are not signing a Pac-12 GoR. Period."
(01-30-2023 11:00 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 05:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 04:56 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(01-29-2023 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder if the Big 10 could get $100M/yr for a Big 10 after dark package and use the $100M to pay Oregon and Washington a reduced payout.

Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado join the Big 12.


With the expanded CFP you got to wonder why UW and Oregon would want to leave. They have a better chance at a national title by staying in the PAC.

For better or worse, that simply has never been the driving force of conference realignment.

It's about maximizing conference-level revenue even if it makes the road to a national title tougher.

Well yeah! You may get a bid for being the PAC champ but if you are 35 million behind in media revenue, another 11-13 million behind in gate, you aren't going to compete! That's pretty much it!


February 22, 1980.

Does Mike Eruzione work for the PAC 12? Or are you saying you're waiting for a "Miracle on Ice"?
01-30-2023 11:36 PM
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