Do they get in?

Maybe because Bernadette McGlade is a senior member of the committee, which means she's had the most time to build the deepest relationships outside of Chris Reynolds.

(01-27-2023 10:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Do they get in?

VCU (NET #70) is currently 16-5. If they were to win out, they'd finish the regular season with a 26-5 record.

That alone would almost certainly be enough to put them in the NCAA tournament.

1. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2021 NCAA tournament with a 19-7 record.

2. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2019 NCAA tournament with a 25-8 record.

3. Two A-10 teams earned at-large bids in 2018 with 26-8 records.

4. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 26-9 record.

5. Dayton earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 24-8 record.

Moreover, VCU is currently in 1st place in the conference standings, and they currently have only one close competitor, St. Louis (14-6), although (13-8) Dayton is close behind in the NET rankings.

Overall, VCU appears fairly likely to either win the A-10 championship and an automatic berth, or to earn an at-large bid. Their odds of earning an A-10 bid may be close to 50-50.

I assume by the way the question is phrased that you mean would they get an at large bid if they lose in the conference tournament. I would be surprised if they didn't. However, it's awfully early to be talking about winning out. There's a lot of basketball to be played between now and then, and I'd be equally surprised if they finish with 25 wins.

(01-28-2023 05:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 10:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Do they get in?

VCU (NET #70) is currently 16-5. If they were to win out, they'd finish the regular season with a 26-5 record.

That alone would almost certainly be enough to put them in the NCAA tournament.

1. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2021 NCAA tournament with a 19-7 record.

2. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2019 NCAA tournament with a 25-8 record.

3. Two A-10 teams earned at-large bids in 2018 with 26-8 records.

4. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 26-9 record.

5. Dayton earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 24-8 record.

Moreover, VCU is currently in 1st place in the conference standings, and they currently have only one close competitor, St. Louis (14-6), although (13-8) Dayton is close behind in the NET rankings.

Overall, VCU appears fairly likely to either win the A-10 championship and an automatic berth, or to earn an at-large bid. Their odds of earning an A-10 bid may be close to 50-50.

Yeah but the A-10 is very down this year, it's no guarantee.

If they win at least 25 games they are in, probably on the 10 or 11 line, in my opinion. Regardless of the metrics, the A10 is still a very highly respected league among the college basketball community. VCU also carries name recognition due to their past successes in the tournament. The NCAA Tournament is about TV ratings and revenue, not about crowning a national champion. A lot of people will tune in, just to see if VCU can make an upset in the 1st round.

(01-27-2023 11:23 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Maybe because Bernadette McGlade is a senior member of the committee, which means she's had the most time to build the deepest relationships outside of Chris Reynolds.

Yeah, I suspect the politics will show up in some way. I don’t think it’s a lock for the A10 to send two (maybe we get another first alternate thing), but I’m looking at the Mountain West and thinking there’s no way they send all five of those top-50 NET teams.

The one to watch is Charleston if they don’t take home the AQ. Even shakier if they lose that game and another before the CAA tournament. They’ve crept up the NET, but KenPom still doesn’t buy in. A chance for “if the A10 isn’t sending two, CAA sure as heck isn’t.”

VCU with a current NET rank of #70 is on the outside looking in, but IF they win out would have a very good shot.

Of course, the exact same thing could be said of USM at #67, with a record of 15-4.

The Atlantic 10 was proactive and did what it had to do to say at the highest level possible but does anything think they have too many teams now and kind of hurt themselves ? If the Big East takes Dayton and or St. Louis, will they be replaced or do they even have to be replaced ?

(01-28-2023 05:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 10:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Do they get in?

VCU (NET #70) is currently 16-5. If they were to win out, they'd finish the regular season with a 26-5 record.

That alone would almost certainly be enough to put them in the NCAA tournament.

1. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2021 NCAA tournament with a 19-7 record.

2. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2019 NCAA tournament with a 25-8 record.

3. Two A-10 teams earned at-large bids in 2018 with 26-8 records.

4. VCU earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 26-9 record.

5. Dayton earned an at-large bid in the 2017 NCAA tournament with a 24-8 record.

Moreover, VCU is currently in 1st place in the conference standings, and they currently have only one close competitor, St. Louis (14-6), although (13-8) Dayton is close behind in the NET rankings.

Overall, VCU appears fairly likely to either win the A-10 championship and an automatic berth, or to earn an at-large bid. Their odds of earning an A-10 bid may be close to 50-50.

1 small difference. The A10 in all those years was a good conference. This year the conference sucks ass. A-10 this year is the 12th best conference. In those years you're talking about they were the 8th or 9th best conference at worst. Huge difference there. That means a lot.

(01-28-2023 08:16 AM)mvfcfan Wrote:  If they win at least 25 games they are in, probably on the 10 or 11 line, in my opinion. Regardless of the metrics, the A10 is still a very highly respected league among the college basketball community. VCU also carries name recognition due to their past successes in the tournament. The NCAA Tournament is about TV ratings and revenue, not about crowning a national champion. A lot of people will tune in, just to see if VCU can make an upset in the 1st round.

25 win teams from #12 conference typically don't make it a lot of times. The A10 is straight garbage this year.

(01-28-2023 10:29 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Of course, the exact same thing could be said of USM at #67, with a record of 15-4.

That’s a good and tough comparison. USM’s NET to KP ranking difference is something around 30 places; KP barely has them in the top 100. But, both have little to be proud of. NC-SOS for both aren’t good (VCU’s better), and the Q1/2 records are really about the value of beating Liberty (USM) or Pitt (VCU).

It’s Saint Louis who should have the higher ceiling in the A10 should they win out to the conference championship game. Providence and Memphis wins make them a little harder to overlook come Selection Sunday if they don’t come away with the AQ. NC-SOS in the top 60 even more tough.

Well, so much for this...

So much for that, VCU just lost to a mediocre St Bonaventure team. 1 bid A10 is almost a certainty this year. Deserved after the **** OOC that they had.

Sorry for jinxing you VCU fans, if we even have any on this board.

There was no jinx - we've known it was going to be a 1-bid league for a while now.