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The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
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shizzle787 Offline
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The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
The Pac-12 still does not have a TV contract, but Kliavkoff has made at least one statement recently that makes me think expansion has less than a 50% chance of happening. At this point, I am starting to buy into the narrative that schools like Stanford, Cal, and Washington do not want to dilute their academic brands and rub shoulders with Cal state schools like SDSU or a private school from Texas like SMU.
I also point back to stugray's observation that leagues usually expand before they announce a TV deal. Therefore, I think the Pac-12 stays put at 10.

With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone. I expect the Big 10 to stay at 16 for the time being.

Both the ACC and SEC are in a holding pattern until the 2030s.

I do think the Big 12 will add Gonzaga once the Pac-12 gets its TV deal as the four corner schools will be locked in for the time being (not that they are going anywhere anyway as long as Washington and Oregon stay around). Adding the Zags gives the league another national brand and will possibly lead the league to go to a 20-game conference schedule to be on par with the Big 10, ACC, and Big East.

With Gonzaga out of the mix, the Big East likely has no need to expand as there is no great candidate remaining.

With there being no movement among FBS P5 football schools, the MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.

There has been recent news about C-USA potentially adding FCS football-only programs. I believe the league adds NDSU and SDSU as football-only additions. This would allow the FCS powerhouses the opportunity to stay in the Summit league for Olympic sports, move up to FBS, and helps C-USA gain at least one program that could have the brand recognition and sporting ability to fight for a playoff spot a few years down the line.

This would leave the Missouri Valley Football Conference with 10 schools, but that is a stable number for FCS so the league stays put.

With the exodus of Gonzaga, the WCC will look to expand. I'm starting to think they will simply go back to 9 members. This will keep the 16-game schedule without diluting the league too much. I ultimately think team #9 will be Grand Canyon.

The WAC is a league that just won't die but its FBS aspirations with the A-Sun will. I don't see the merged football league making it to the promised land. When the dust settles, I see the WAC adding Central Arkansas to get to 7 football members and adding Little Rock to get to 12 schools overall and as a travel buddy for the former. At this point, 7 of 12 overall schools and 5 of 7 football football schools will be in Texas and Arkansas. The league's eastward movement is a life-saver.

I have no doubt there is a battle of wills going on between the CAA and Southern, but ultimately neither will be able to raid the other.

Both the Big West and Summit decide to stand pat as well.

So do the America East, Big Sky, and Patriot.

The Horizon league decides to get into the action to get back to 12: it selects...Morehead State, the best remaining brand in the OVC. (You were thinking I was going to say Bellarmine.) Morehead State is a public school with a decent basketball tradition and non-scholarship football in the Pioneer.

The MAAC is sitting at 11 and has mentioned it would like to get to 12. Wagner fits the bill. The school would put its football into the Big South-OVC alliance.

The SWAC decides to get into the action by adding Tennessee State to get to 13 schools. The league capitalizes on the instability of the OVC to get it done.

The NEC is down to 8 schools after losing Wagner and makes a defensive move by adding Le Moyne, a Division 2 institution.

The MEAC attempts to add some Division 2 institutions but none can make the financial commitments, the league decides to stay at 8.

Queens looks around and realizes the geography and predominantly basketball focus of the Big South is a better fit and makes a move to that league. The Big South would now be at 10 schools.

The Southland, still at 10 schools, takes a breath as no one touched it and decides to stay at 10.

This is where things get weird: the A-Sun is down to 9 schools (3 football) and the OVC is down to 7 schools (5 football + 5 affiliates). The A-Sun has the numerical advantage, but the OVC has more football stability as I believe the A-SUN/WAC marriage fails after the WAC grabs Central Arkansas.

So what happens? I think a deal is made: the A-Sun agrees not to raid the OVC while the OVC/Big South agrees to take in the three remaining three A-Sun football programs for a 13-team football league. But wait there's more....

The A-Sun adds West Florida to get back to 10 schools, and UWF gets an invite into the hybrid football league to get it up to an even 14.

The OVC is still at 7 schools. UIndy decides to make the move up, and the league begrudgingly adds Chicago State to get to 9.

That leaves us with 365 Division 1 schools, 136 FBS schools, and we keep 32 conferences.
01-24-2023 06:03 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
Horizon would target Bellarmine before Morehead. Bellarmine is urban and the entire Horizon is (sub)urban. Morehead is not only rural, it is one of the most remote schools in D1. Bellarmine also has a budget that fits in the Horizon while Morehead’s is near the bottom of D1.
01-24-2023 06:17 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 06:03 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Pac-12 still does not have a TV contract, but Kliavkoff has made at least one statement recently that makes me think expansion has less than a 50% chance of happening. At this point, I am starting to buy into the narrative that schools like Stanford, Cal, and Washington do not want to dilute their academic brands and rub shoulders with Cal state schools like SDSU or a private school from Texas like SMU.
I also point back to stugray's observation that leagues usually expand before they announce a TV deal. Therefore, I think the Pac-12 stays put at 10.

With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone. I expect the Big 10 to stay at 16 for the time being.

Both the ACC and SEC are in a holding pattern until the 2030s.

I do think the Big 12 will add Gonzaga once the Pac-12 gets its TV deal as the four corner schools will be locked in for the time being (not that they are going anywhere anyway as long as Washington and Oregon stay around). Adding the Zags gives the league another national brand and will possibly lead the league to go to a 20-game conference schedule to be on par with the Big 10, ACC, and Big East.

With Gonzaga out of the mix, the Big East likely has no need to expand as there is no great candidate remaining.

With there being no movement among FBS P5 football schools, the MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.

There has been recent news about C-USA potentially adding FCS football-only programs. I believe the league adds NDSU and SDSU as football-only additions. This would allow the FCS powerhouses the opportunity to stay in the Summit league for Olympic sports, move up to FBS, and helps C-USA gain at least one program that could have the brand recognition and sporting ability to fight for a playoff spot a few years down the line.

This would leave the Missouri Valley Football Conference with 10 schools, but that is a stable number for FCS so the league stays put.

With the exodus of Gonzaga, the WCC will look to expand. I'm starting to think they will simply go back to 9 members. This will keep the 16-game schedule without diluting the league too much. I ultimately think team #9 will be Grand Canyon.

The WAC is a league that just won't die but its FBS aspirations with the A-Sun will. I don't see the merged football league making it to the promised land. When the dust settles, I see the WAC adding Central Arkansas to get to 7 football members and adding Little Rock to get to 12 schools overall and as a travel buddy for the former. At this point, 7 of 12 overall schools and 5 of 7 football football schools will be in Texas and Arkansas. The league's eastward movement is a life-saver.

I have no doubt there is a battle of wills going on between the CAA and Southern, but ultimately neither will be able to raid the other.

Both the Big West and Summit decide to stand pat as well.

So do the America East, Big Sky, and Patriot.

The Horizon league decides to get into the action to get back to 12: it selects...Morehead State, the best remaining brand in the OVC. (You were thinking I was going to say Bellarmine.) Morehead State is a public school with a decent basketball tradition and non-scholarship football in the Pioneer.

The MAAC is sitting at 11 and has mentioned it would like to get to 12. Wagner fits the bill. The school would put its football into the Big South-OVC alliance.

The SWAC decides to get into the action by adding Tennessee State to get to 13 schools. The league capitalizes on the instability of the OVC to get it done.

The NEC is down to 8 schools after losing Wagner and makes a defensive move by adding Le Moyne, a Division 2 institution.

The MEAC attempts to add some Division 2 institutions but none can make the financial commitments, the league decides to stay at 8.

Queens looks around and realizes the geography and predominantly basketball focus of the Big South is a better fit and makes a move to that league. The Big South would now be at 10 schools.

The Southland, still at 10 schools, takes a breath as no one touched it and decides to stay at 10.

This is where things get weird: the A-Sun is down to 9 schools (3 football) and the OVC is down to 7 schools (5 football + 5 affiliates). The A-Sun has the numerical advantage, but the OVC has more football stability as I believe the A-SUN/WAC marriage fails after the WAC grabs Central Arkansas.

So what happens? I think a deal is made: the A-Sun agrees not to raid the OVC while the OVC/Big South agrees to take in the three remaining three A-Sun football programs for a 13-team football league. But wait there's more....

The A-Sun adds West Florida to get back to 10 schools, and UWF gets an invite into the hybrid football league to get it up to an even 14.

The OVC is still at 7 schools. UIndy decides to make the move up, and the league begrudgingly adds Chicago State to get to 9.

That leaves us with 365 Division 1 schools, 136 FBS schools, and we keep 32 conferences.

Thank you for the interesting read.

I do think it's too early to dismiss P5 realignment yet. It usually is announced closer to deadlines, and we have months yet for that.
01-24-2023 07:02 PM
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72Tiger Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
Can't see Grand Canyon going to WCC. If Gonzaga were to leave (long shot) that opens the door for Seattle. Institutional fit is so much better.
01-24-2023 07:22 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 07:22 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  Can't see Grand Canyon going to WCC. If Gonzaga were to leave (long shot) that opens the door for Seattle. Institutional fit is so much better.

Agreed. Seattle is the logical replacement for Gonzaga. And while Seattle's departure will be a blow to the WAC, the silver lining is that it will reduce the WAC's geographic footprint and balance its eastern and western divisions with five members each.

For those reasons I predict that a Gonzaga move to the Big 12 would result in the WCC ending up with 9 members and the WAC 10. Also, I expect the WAC's football teams to follow though with their plan to create a football-only FCS conference jointly with the ASUN's football teams. While the members of that new conference may continue to pay lip service to moving up to FBS as a group, I doubt more than one or two will ultimately pull that trigger.
01-24-2023 07:56 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 07:56 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(01-24-2023 07:22 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  Can't see Grand Canyon going to WCC. If Gonzaga were to leave (long shot) that opens the door for Seattle. Institutional fit is so much better.

Agreed. Seattle is the logical replacement for Gonzaga. And while Seattle's departure will be a blow to the WAC, the silver lining is that it will reduce the WAC's geographic footprint and balance its eastern and western divisions with five members each.

For those reasons I predict that a Gonzaga move to the Big 12 would result in the WCC ending up with 9 members and the WAC 10. Also, I expect the WAC's football teams to follow though with their plan to create a football-only FCS conference jointly with the ASUN's football teams. While the members of that new conference may continue to pay lip service to moving up to FBS as a group, I doubt more than one or two will ultimately pull that trigger.

Is Seattle being decent for the last couple years going to be enough for Saint Mary's and USF to let them in? Those two would be calling the shots. While Seattle had a 20 win season in '17-'18, they have yet to earn an NCAA or NIT bid since returning to Division 1 (though that could very well change this year)
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2023 08:07 PM by jdgaucho.)
01-24-2023 08:05 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
I think Gonzaga is all dressed up with nowhere to go. Well excellent in basketball, they don’t help the football mission of the Big 12 or PAC 10 and I’m not sure the Big East wants a lone West Coast program.

If they were to leave, Seattle would be the logical replacement and then the WAC recalibrates at 10.
01-24-2023 09:55 PM
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46566 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
If Gonzaga leaves they then go back to 10 and a 18 game schedule. I think they add Seattle to stay in Washington and Cal Baptist as another California trip.
01-24-2023 10:36 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
All of these replies are valid. I think the odds of the Pac-12 expanding are 40/60 at this point. I think the odds of Gonzaga finding a new home are 50/50. Bellarmine to the Horizon is the conventional pick, but that league does not take transitioning Division 1 members so they would need to wait a year. Seattle would be a geographical replacement for Gonzaga, but Grand Canyon has more potential and a far superior fanbase. The WCC could go back to 10 members. If Gonzaga leaves, I think going back to 10 vs. staying at 9 is 50/50.
01-24-2023 11:04 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
"With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone."

I know this is a common sentiment, but I think Kevin is getting a bit too much credit/blame for the USC/UCLA thing. It might take another 7-12 years...but the B1G (and SEC) will go big-game hunting again.
01-24-2023 11:05 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 11:05 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  "With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone."

I know this is a common sentiment, but I think Kevin is getting a bit too much credit/blame for the USC/UCLA thing. It might take another 7-12 years...but the B1G (and SEC) will go big-game hunting again.
Possibly, but expansion is done until then.
01-24-2023 11:13 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 11:05 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  "With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone."

I know this is a common sentiment, but I think Kevin is getting a bit too much credit/blame for the USC/UCLA thing. It might take another 7-12 years...but the B1G (and SEC) will go big-game hunting again.

I would say that he deserves plenty of credit/blame. Texas has approached the Pac several times over the years, and they, or their Commissioners, could never finalize the deal. Sometimes it was just Texas, others they had friends that the Pac would love to have today, but every single time they dropped the ball. USCLA approached the B1G and it was finalized within 24 hrs. Warren deserves something for that. Though maybe the something that he got was a huge raise and a job with the Bears.
01-24-2023 11:23 PM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 06:17 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Horizon would target Bellarmine before Morehead. Bellarmine is urban and the entire Horizon is (sub)urban. Morehead is not only rural, it is one of the most remote schools in D1. Bellarmine also has a budget that fits in the Horizon while Morehead’s is near the bottom of D1.


Bellermine's main goal is get a SoCon invite. They are spending a lot of money to their campus as we speak.
01-25-2023 01:07 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 07:56 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(01-24-2023 07:22 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  Can't see Grand Canyon going to WCC. If Gonzaga were to leave (long shot) that opens the door for Seattle. Institutional fit is so much better.

Agreed. Seattle is the logical replacement for Gonzaga. And while Seattle's departure will be a blow to the WAC, the silver lining is that it will reduce the WAC's geographic footprint and balance its eastern and western divisions with five members each.

For those reasons I predict that a Gonzaga move to the Big 12 would result in the WCC ending up with 9 members and the WAC 10. Also, I expect the WAC's football teams to follow through with their plan to create a football-only FCS conference jointly with the ASUN's football teams. While the members of that new conference may continue to pay lip service to moving up to FBS as a group, I doubt more than one or two will ultimately pull that trigger.

Second the motion. Seattle would be first in if Gonzaga is last out...Gonzaga block gone...WA replacement...they pass each other at the WCC door as Gonzaga leaves and Seattle enters...

GCU could be a potential replacement for BYU...brings a suitcase full of woodrow wilson's ($100,000 bill)...says they're here with the Woodrow Wilsons as fiducial reassurance...turns suitcase towards WCC...opens suitcase showing contents to WCC membership committee...
[Image: File:US-$100000-GC-1934-Fr-2413.jpg]

Cal Baptist waiting on deck...SoCal school...balances WCC's northern and southern CA schools with four members each region...just in case GCU's Woodrow Wilsons gambit doesn't pan out...
01-25-2023 02:50 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 11:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(01-24-2023 11:05 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  "With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone."

I know this is a common sentiment, but I think Kevin is getting a bit too much credit/blame for the USC/UCLA thing. It might take another 7-12 years...but the B1G (and SEC) will go big-game hunting again.

I would say that he deserves plenty of credit/blame. Texas has approached the Pac several times over the years, and they, or their Commissioners, could never finalize the deal. Sometimes it was just Texas, others they had friends that the Pac would love to have today, but every single time they dropped the ball. USCLA approached the B1G and it was finalized within 24 hrs. Warren deserves something for that. Though maybe the something that he got was a huge raise and a job with the Bears.

That's a very good point.

USC may have gone to the Big10 with an idea, but it takes a "closer" to not only "get it done", but get it done effectively and fast.

Warren has now established that college sports are a billion dollar business.

And all too often we're seeing the "leadership" at these schools not stepping up.

College sports can keep the athletes' amateur standing, but the media deals are big business, and schools' internal choices are affecting that business. The people running things can't be acting like amateurs too.

Many of the issues at the PAC, the B12, and the ACC, have been self-inflicted - both in what they have done, and what they have not done. No not every deal is the right deal to accept. But there have been potential deals to be made which could have been negotiated.

And you're right - it's pretty clear that professional decision-makers have been watching, and when that opportunity appeared, Warren has reaped the benefits.

Now it's just a matter of what the B10 decision-makers decide to do next.
01-25-2023 03:31 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (January 24 edition)
(01-24-2023 06:03 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Pac-12 still does not have a TV contract, but Kliavkoff has made at least one statement recently that makes me think expansion has less than a 50% chance of happening. At this point, I am starting to buy into the narrative that schools like Stanford, Cal, and Washington do not want to dilute their academic brands and rub shoulders with Cal state schools like SDSU or a private school from Texas like SMU.
I also point back to stugray's observation that leagues usually expand before they announce a TV deal. Therefore, I think the Pac-12 stays put at 10.

With Kevin Warren going to the NFL, the Big 10's biggest cheerleader for expansion is gone. I expect the Big 10 to stay at 16 for the time being.

Both the ACC and SEC are in a holding pattern until the 2030s.

I do think the Big 12 will add Gonzaga once the Pac-12 gets its TV deal as the four corner schools will be locked in for the time being (not that they are going anywhere anyway as long as Washington and Oregon stay around). Adding the Zags gives the league another national brand and will possibly lead the league to go to a 20-game conference schedule to be on par with the Big 10, ACC, and Big East.

With Gonzaga out of the mix, the Big East likely has no need to expand as there is no great candidate remaining.

With there being no movement among FBS P5 football schools, the MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.

There has been recent news about C-USA potentially adding FCS football-only programs. I believe the league adds NDSU and SDSU as football-only additions. This would allow the FCS powerhouses the opportunity to stay in the Summit league for Olympic sports, move up to FBS, and helps C-USA gain at least one program that could have the brand recognition and sporting ability to fight for a playoff spot a few years down the line.

This would leave the Missouri Valley Football Conference with 10 schools, but that is a stable number for FCS so the league stays put.

With the exodus of Gonzaga, the WCC will look to expand. I'm starting to think they will simply go back to 9 members. This will keep the 16-game schedule without diluting the league too much. I ultimately think team #9 will be Grand Canyon.

The WAC is a league that just won't die but its FBS aspirations with the A-Sun will. I don't see the merged football league making it to the promised land. When the dust settles, I see the WAC adding Central Arkansas to get to 7 football members and adding Little Rock to get to 12 schools overall and as a travel buddy for the former. At this point, 7 of 12 overall schools and 5 of 7 football football schools will be in Texas and Arkansas. The league's eastward movement is a life-saver.

I have no doubt there is a battle of wills going on between the CAA and Southern, but ultimately neither will be able to raid the other.

Both the Big West and Summit decide to stand pat as well.

So do the America East, Big Sky, and Patriot.

The Horizon league decides to get into the action to get back to 12: it selects...Morehead State, the best remaining brand in the OVC. (You were thinking I was going to say Bellarmine.) Morehead State is a public school with a decent basketball tradition and non-scholarship football in the Pioneer.

The MAAC is sitting at 11 and has mentioned it would like to get to 12. Wagner fits the bill. The school would put its football into the Big South-OVC alliance.

The SWAC decides to get into the action by adding Tennessee State to get to 13 schools. The league capitalizes on the instability of the OVC to get it done.

The NEC is down to 8 schools after losing Wagner and makes a defensive move by adding Le Moyne, a Division 2 institution.

The MEAC attempts to add some Division 2 institutions but none can make the financial commitments, the league decides to stay at 8.

Queens looks around and realizes the geography and predominantly basketball focus of the Big South is a better fit and makes a move to that league. The Big South would now be at 10 schools.

The Southland, still at 10 schools, takes a breath as no one touched it and decides to stay at 10.

This is where things get weird: the A-Sun is down to 9 schools (3 football) and the OVC is down to 7 schools (5 football + 5 affiliates). The A-Sun has the numerical advantage, but the OVC has more football stability as I believe the A-SUN/WAC marriage fails after the WAC grabs Central Arkansas.

So what happens? I think a deal is made: the A-Sun agrees not to raid the OVC while the OVC/Big South agrees to take in the three remaining three A-Sun football programs for a 13-team football league. But wait there's more....

The A-Sun adds West Florida to get back to 10 schools, and UWF gets an invite into the hybrid football league to get it up to an even 14.

The OVC is still at 7 schools. UIndy decides to make the move up, and the league begrudgingly adds Chicago State to get to 9.

That leaves us with 365 Division 1 schools, 136 FBS schools, and we keep 32 conferences.

Bellarmine would be chosen over Morehead State, but Bellarmine wants to be in a southern based conference, so the Horizon may have to look elsewhere.

Wagner putting their football program in the Big South would be a golden opportunity for the conference to call up UNC-Pembroke from D2. That would give the Big South six football schools and would get them out of the partnership with the OVC.

As for the OVC, Arkansas Little-Rock leaving would be strange, considering they were just added to the conference. But if the WAC adds Central Arkansas from the ASUN, I could see the WAC adding UALR as well. I'm surprised the WAC didn't go after them when they added UT-Arlington.

The OVC would likely replace Tennessee State with Lipscomb to keep their presence in Nashville. I also think they would readd Austin Peay as well. Austin Peay is probably in better standing with the conference than Eastern Kentucky as they are in a lawsuit alongside Jacksonville State for leaving. I agree that the OVC would try to add UIndy from D2 again. I doubt they would add Chicago State. The OVC needs members but they're not that desperate for members.

The ASUN might also target Valdosta State in addition to West Florida to move up from D2.

I don't see Gonzaga leaving the WCC for the Big 12. The Big 12 is already a strong conference in basketball with their recent adds. Plus Gonzaga is only good while Mark Few is there. Once he leaves or retires, they will more than likely fade into irrelevancy. But, should they leave, Seattle would be the logical replacement. The WCC could also go for Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon. But, Cal Baptist isn't a strong candidate and Grand Canyon's for-profit status would be frowned upon by the conference.
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2023 11:57 AM by andybible1995.)
01-25-2023 04:03 AM
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