(01-25-2023 06:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 05:37 PM)Poster Wrote:  Honestly, I suspect they’re making this revelation public just as an excuse to get rid of the conference network. Which I don’t blame them for in the least.

Making it public at least gives them that option. But remember, they were going to have to tell the schools they would be getting less so, they needed to get out ahead of it. It's the only way they could blunt the ability of the schools to use it as an excuse for further departures.

Another $2m off the table...talk about rubbing salt in the wounds of their member institutions. It's only for a couple years and unlikely to result in further defections, but still...man, the optics of this are just horrible. The absolutely most charitable way you can view this is that Larry Scott was such a hard-charger that his lieutenants were afraid to tell him that the PACN was even worse than they thought it was.

(01-25-2023 08:42 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 06:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 05:37 PM)Poster Wrote:  Honestly, I suspect they’re making this revelation public just as an excuse to get rid of the conference network. Which I don’t blame them for in the least.

Making it public at least gives them that option. But remember, they were going to have to tell the schools they would be getting less so, they needed to get out ahead of it. It's the only way they could blunt the ability of the schools to use it as an excuse for further departures.

Another $2m off the table...talk about rubbing salt in the wounds of their member institutions. It's only for a couple years and unlikely to result in further defections, but still...man, the optics of this are just horrible. The absolutely most charitable way you can view this is that Larry Scott was such a hard-charger that his lieutenants were afraid to tell him that the PACN was even worse than they thought it was.

I wondered about that, too.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...kelly-2022

If this had been the PACN, they'd still be overpaying him in 2026.

(01-26-2023 12:03 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 08:42 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 06:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 05:37 PM)Poster Wrote:  Honestly, I suspect they’re making this revelation public just as an excuse to get rid of the conference network. Which I don’t blame them for in the least.

Making it public at least gives them that option. But remember, they were going to have to tell the schools they would be getting less so, they needed to get out ahead of it. It's the only way they could blunt the ability of the schools to use it as an excuse for further departures.

Another $2m off the table...talk about rubbing salt in the wounds of their member institutions. It's only for a couple years and unlikely to result in further defections, but still...man, the optics of this are just horrible. The absolutely most charitable way you can view this is that Larry Scott was such a hard-charger that his lieutenants were afraid to tell him that the PACN was even worse than they thought it was.

I wondered about that, too.

The whole thing was a cluster mess. I doubt Scott wanted to be bothered with the mundane until he needed scapegoats and then he had interest. But since this didn't out while he was there, I doubt he ever knew about this. It's about the right amount of time for Kliavkoff to be figuring out where to look for answers. I'd say he is more likely to have uncovered this. And yes, getting it out there keeps it from sticking to his skirt and it blunts its impact a wee bit. As far as it keeping anyone from bolting it only lessens the impact of using this as an excuse. Refusal to sign a new GOR simply means the schools will keep all options open. I'll be surprised if they sign a new GOR that doesn't put them on par with the New Big 12.

The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

If this is in fact true, Yormack needs to start circling the carcass and nipping at the flesh. Start with the 4 C's. You get them to move to the big 12, then Washington and Oregon have nowhere else to go and will be forced to follow AND sign the Big 12 GoR, because if B1G doesn't offer them, their only alternative at that point is staying in a MWC PAC merger or independence. So basically forced into it.

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

GORs are probably a thing of the past. I’ve never even seen a source clearly stating that the Big 12 has signed a GOR. And Kansas (which probably has about a 5% chance at the P2) is the only Big 12 school that seems to have greater than 0% odds at the P2.

(01-27-2023 06:41 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

GORs are probably a thing of the past. I’ve never even seen a source clearly stating that the Big 12 has signed a GOR. And Kansas (which probably has about a 5% chance at the P2) is the only Big 12 school that seems to have greater than 0% odds at the P2.

That's a good question about the nB12 GOR or lack thereof. I have assumed that their 2025 media deal includes a GOR, but I admit I am just assuming that.

But I would be surprised if they do not have one. IMO, GORs are still likely to be viewed as good things, as they boost the media payout. What is viewed as bad about them, by the schools that have reservations, is when the media deals are very long such that the GOR stretches out far in to the future, like the ACC deal.

So what I expect is that new media deals will include GORs, but be short, meaning of the seven-year variety, which is what everyone seems to be signing these days.

IIRC, all of them basically are that length or in the case of the nB12 soon will be, save for the ACC and SEC. I expect the nPAC to sign a seven-year deal too.

We'll see.

(01-27-2023 06:58 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 06:41 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

GORs are probably a thing of the past. I’ve never even seen a source clearly stating that the Big 12 has signed a GOR. And Kansas (which probably has about a 5% chance at the P2) is the only Big 12 school that seems to have greater than 0% odds at the P2.

That's a good question about the nB12 GOR or lack thereof. I have assumed that their 2025 media deal includes a GOR, but I admit I am just assuming that.

But I would be surprised if they do not have one. IMO, GORs are still likely to be viewed as good things, as they boost the media payout. What is viewed as bad about them, by the schools that have reservations, is when the media deals are very long such that the GOR stretches out far in to the future, like the ACC deal.

So what I expect is that new media deals will include GORs, but be short, meaning of the seven-year variety, which is what everyone seems to be signing these days.

IIRC, all of them basically are that length or in the case of the nB12 soon will be, save for the ACC and SEC. I expect the nPAC to sign a seven-year deal too.

We'll see.

Quo, with regard to everyone in the Big 12 but Kansas, it might be argued that their valuation is essentially homogenized in that if any one of those schools left it would not impact the value of the remaining schools, unlike the departure of Texas and / or Oklahoma.

When the remaining schools are truly worth essentially what they are being paid then all that need be done if one leaves is for the conference to add another of relative value. In that event there is nothing gained and nothing lost by not having a GOR. The Caveat would be that defections should not happen more than two at the time.

That said where would they go? The PAC is valued slightly less, the ACC slightly more, but all relatively in the same ball park.

If the SEC and Big 10 have GOR's that may soon be all that is required. I can see 2 to 4 adds for the Big 10 remaining and the same for the SEC unless unequal revenue sharing becomes a thing.

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

I can think of 3 reasons off the top of my head

1. They already have an offer from the B1G, or they expect to get one soon
2. They don't like the money offered
3. They don't feel that a theoretical all-streaming offer from Amazon offers enough of a premium to be worth the theoretically reduced exposure

1 is self explanatory, but 2/3 could be a lot of different things. It could be the deal is $29m instead of $31m and they want to be ahead of the big 12, it could be that they're saying "give us $45m each or we're leaving, we don't care how you get the money for us", or it could be "ESPN has lowballed us at $18m and Amazon jumped that up to $22m, no thank you".

If it's a potential deal that's a couple million apart then it seems likely that they'll eventually reach an agreement and the leaks should start coming any day now. If it's more like $10-15m apart, however, then nobody is going to leak anything to anybody b/c they don't want the 4c to leave while Yormark still wants them. They might just be hoping to stall long enough that the economy starts showing signs of life and a new bidder emerges.

(01-27-2023 08:33 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

I can think of 3 reasons off the top of my head

1. They already have an offer from the B1G, or they expect to get one soon
2. They don't like the money offered
3. They don't feel that a theoretical all-streaming offer from Amazon offers enough of a premium to be worth the theoretically reduced exposure

1 is self explanatory, but 2/3 could be a lot of different things. It could be the deal is $29m instead of $31m and they want to be ahead of the big 12, it could be that they're saying "give us $45m each or we're leaving, we don't care how you get the money for us", or it could be "ESPN has lowballed us at $18m and Amazon jumped that up to $22m, no thank you".

If it's a potential deal that's a couple million apart then it seems likely that they'll eventually reach an agreement and the leaks should start coming any day now. If it's more like $10-15m apart, however, then nobody is going to leak anything to anybody b/c they don't want the 4c to leave while Yormark still wants them. They might just be hoping to stall long enough that the economy starts showing signs of life and a new bidder emerges.

Yeah, those reasons make sense.

The more the nPAC deal drags out, and I do think it is dragging out now, the more I think there are troubles of the money/exposure kind bubbling behind the nPAC scenes.

(01-27-2023 07:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 06:58 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 06:41 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

GORs are probably a thing of the past. I’ve never even seen a source clearly stating that the Big 12 has signed a GOR. And Kansas (which probably has about a 5% chance at the P2) is the only Big 12 school that seems to have greater than 0% odds at the P2.

That's a good question about the nB12 GOR or lack thereof. I have assumed that their 2025 media deal includes a GOR, but I admit I am just assuming that.

But I would be surprised if they do not have one. IMO, GORs are still likely to be viewed as good things, as they boost the media payout. What is viewed as bad about them, by the schools that have reservations, is when the media deals are very long such that the GOR stretches out far in to the future, like the ACC deal.

So what I expect is that new media deals will include GORs, but be short, meaning of the seven-year variety, which is what everyone seems to be signing these days.

IIRC, all of them basically are that length or in the case of the nB12 soon will be, save for the ACC and SEC. I expect the nPAC to sign a seven-year deal too.

We'll see.

Quo, with regard to everyone in the Big 12 but Kansas, it might be argued that their valuation is essentially homogenized in that if any one of those schools left it would not impact the value of the remaining schools, unlike the departure of Texas and / or Oklahoma.

When the remaining schools are truly worth essentially what they are being paid then all that need be done if one leaves is for the conference to add another of relative value. In that event there is nothing gained and nothing lost by not having a GOR. The Caveat would be that defections should not happen more than two at the time.

That said where would they go? The PAC is valued slightly less, the ACC slightly more, but all relatively in the same ball park.

If the SEC and Big 10 have GOR's that may soon be all that is required. I can see 2 to 4 adds for the Big 10 remaining and the same for the SEC unless unequal revenue sharing becomes a thing.

I like this idea, that, with the exception of Kansas all of the other nB12 schools are arguably homogenous as you describe. Heck, IMO it would apply to Kansas as well. I think if they left the nB12 it would not put much if any dent in the nB12 payouts.

I guess this adds up to something like the nB12 having the "stability of the unwanted" in the sense that none of them, save possibly for Kansas, would have anyplace else to go for the next 7-10 years.

So .... OK, maybe they do not have a GOR in that 2025 deal. :)

(01-27-2023 09:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:33 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 08:07 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The Monty Show:The PAC 12 Has A Money Problem...Is San Diego State The Solution?

The PAC 12 Conference is in the middle of a scandal that allegedly saw them keep $50 million dollars in over-payments from Comcast. How bad is this for the PAC 12 Networks? What are the long term ramifications for the PAC 12 Conference in it's efforts to get a new TV deal?


Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIJ1RA2Kyg

FWIW, I find it interesting when Monty says that the TV negotiations are over, they either accept or find another TV partner. Oregon & Washington refused to signed a GORs ...WOW!

Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

I can think of 3 reasons off the top of my head

1. They already have an offer from the B1G, or they expect to get one soon
2. They don't like the money offered
3. They don't feel that a theoretical all-streaming offer from Amazon offers enough of a premium to be worth the theoretically reduced exposure

1 is self explanatory, but 2/3 could be a lot of different things. It could be the deal is $29m instead of $31m and they want to be ahead of the big 12, it could be that they're saying "give us $45m each or we're leaving, we don't care how you get the money for us", or it could be "ESPN has lowballed us at $18m and Amazon jumped that up to $22m, no thank you".

If it's a potential deal that's a couple million apart then it seems likely that they'll eventually reach an agreement and the leaks should start coming any day now. If it's more like $10-15m apart, however, then nobody is going to leak anything to anybody b/c they don't want the 4c to leave while Yormark still wants them. They might just be hoping to stall long enough that the economy starts showing signs of life and a new bidder emerges.

Yeah, those reasons make sense.

The more the nPAC deal drags out, and I do think it is dragging out now, the more I think there are troubles of the money/exposure kind bubbling behind the nPAC scenes.

Let’s hope that it’s all just about money and/or exposure.

(01-27-2023 09:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 07:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 06:58 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 06:41 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:02 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Why wouldn't Oregon and Washington sign a short term 5 to 7 year GOR? That basically keeps the rest of their west coast club together and removes the threat of the Big 12 while allowing for a move on the next Big 10 contract.

The way I see the Pac 12's objectives
- Keep the core 10 financially comparable to the Big 12
- Create a shell that can survive in case the Big 10 expands further next decade

As Frank said, like the ACC, the PAC likes being together. They are not going to jump anywhere unless its the Big 10 and the money is just too good. Get through this contract and create a western shell that can survive and replenish after any future Big 10 expansion. There is nothing the PAC can do about Big 10 expansion.

GORs are probably a thing of the past. I’ve never even seen a source clearly stating that the Big 12 has signed a GOR. And Kansas (which probably has about a 5% chance at the P2) is the only Big 12 school that seems to have greater than 0% odds at the P2.

That's a good question about the nB12 GOR or lack thereof. I have assumed that their 2025 media deal includes a GOR, but I admit I am just assuming that.

But I would be surprised if they do not have one. IMO, GORs are still likely to be viewed as good things, as they boost the media payout. What is viewed as bad about them, by the schools that have reservations, is when the media deals are very long such that the GOR stretches out far in to the future, like the ACC deal.

So what I expect is that new media deals will include GORs, but be short, meaning of the seven-year variety, which is what everyone seems to be signing these days.

IIRC, all of them basically are that length or in the case of the nB12 soon will be, save for the ACC and SEC. I expect the nPAC to sign a seven-year deal too.

We'll see.

Quo, with regard to everyone in the Big 12 but Kansas, it might be argued that their valuation is essentially homogenized in that if any one of those schools left it would not impact the value of the remaining schools, unlike the departure of Texas and / or Oklahoma.

When the remaining schools are truly worth essentially what they are being paid then all that need be done if one leaves is for the conference to add another of relative value. In that event there is nothing gained and nothing lost by not having a GOR. The Caveat would be that defections should not happen more than two at the time.

That said where would they go? The PAC is valued slightly less, the ACC slightly more, but all relatively in the same ball park.

If the SEC and Big 10 have GOR's that may soon be all that is required. I can see 2 to 4 adds for the Big 10 remaining and the same for the SEC unless unequal revenue sharing becomes a thing.

I like this idea, that, with the exception of Kansas all of the other nB12 schools are arguably homogenous as you describe. Heck, IMO it would apply to Kansas as well. I think if they left the nB12 it would not put much if any dent in the nB12 payouts.

I guess this adds up to something like the nB12 having the "stability of the unwanted" in the sense that none of them, save possibly for Kansas, would have anyplace else to go for the next 7-10 years.

So .... OK, maybe they do not have a GOR in that 2025 deal. :)

The only way Kansas is not homogenous with the rest is if there is a hoops breakaway. Kansas's hoops value would slightly more than double and that's enough to make them second only to Notre Dame in value added out of the rest of the schools not in the SEC or Big 10. Without that they are in the bottom third of the Big 12. It's feast or famine for them depending upon whether hoops is monetized.

Remember as a hoops brand Kansas's value is second only to Kentucky's and the Cats would shoot up the revenue pole in the SEC (they are in the middle now) if their hoops value was slightly more than doubled.

On the subject of whether a B12 grant of rights has been signed, this still appears to be the extent of what's been reported (2022 October):

Sports Business Journal
The Big 12 managed to achieve several of its primary objectives, namely stability and security, the ability to go back to its 12 member schools to seek an extended grant of rights and a leg up on any future conference expansion.

ESPN
A source said that the league is expected to agree to a grant of rights with its 12 members for the length of the deal.

(01-27-2023 10:35 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  On the subject of whether a B12 grant of rights has been signed, this still appears to be the extent of what's been reported (2022 October):

Sports Business Journal
The Big 12 managed to achieve several of its primary objectives, namely stability and security, the ability to go back to its 12 member schools to seek an extended grant of rights and a leg up on any future conference expansion.

ESPN
A source said that the league is expected to agree to a grant of rights with its 12 members for the length of the deal.

Yeah, I’ve found articles like that in Google searches too.


There were articles right before the deal was signed saying the Big 12 was “expected” to sign a grant of rights. And I’m pretty sure the conference commish was loudly saying they’d sign a GOR.

But after the deal was actually signed, I can’t find even one article saying they actually did sign a grant of rights.


If Kansas (or possibly some other Big 12 teams that have delusions about getting into the Power 2) ended up holding up the Big 12 GOR, I have a very hard time imagining Oregon or Washington signing a PAC GOR.

(01-27-2023 10:35 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  On the subject of whether a B12 grant of rights has been signed, this still appears to be the extent of what's been reported (2022 October):

Sports Business Journal
The Big 12 managed to achieve several of its primary objectives, namely stability and security, the ability to go back to its 12 member schools to seek an extended grant of rights and a leg up on any future conference expansion.

ESPN
A source said that the league is expected to agree to a grant of rights with its 12 members for the length of the deal.

From 2022 November, a report that a B12 grant of rights is due for discussion after the final media contract goes before the membership for approval.

Jon Wilner Q&A

For reasons he lists (see story), Wilner doesn't expect lasting damage to contract negotiations from the audit situation.

PAC commissioner George Kliavkoff remains very quiet. Fans don't like the 'radio silence' but member presidents and media negotiators do—and those people are his top priority right now. Confidence in the commissioner remains strong among presidents and ADs.

The odds of PAC 'survival' remain greater than those of PAC 'extinction' by nearly 2-1.