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UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #41
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
I believe that UNLV & SDSU will be invited. However the question becomes for content and the desired "Pac after dark format" does adding Hawaii and say Boise State, New Mexico or Colorado St make more $sense or moving into Texas via a SMU/UTSA/Rice (only need two in Texas) for new markets brings in the PAC more $$$.

If they add Hawaii they are R-1 and all their football home games could fit the ESPN after dark slot ESPN covets, and after the PAC12N overpayment to Comcast, maybe Apple or Amazon takes over the PAC12N and ESPN pays more for Tier1 After dark...with the addition of:

MARKET.............................TV HOUSEHOLDS (2021–22)......CONF FAN AFFILIATIONS
SDSU(R2) #27 San Diego...............1,132,300.............................N/A
UNLV(R1) #40 Las Vegas.................833,510...............................N/A
N. Mexico(R1) #48 Albuquerque.......716,800...............................N/A
Hawaii(R1)#67 Honolulu..................464,090................................N/A
01-25-2023 09:10 PM
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No Bull Offline
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Post: #42
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(01-23-2023 07:42 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  As reported by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unl...15569/amp/

UNLV needs to start winning football games and drawing crowds to have a shot.
01-25-2023 09:17 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #43
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(01-24-2023 09:39 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-23-2023 08:29 PM)johnintx Wrote:  
(01-23-2023 08:11 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  If this were 1991, I'd see it. Then again, they didn't have Allegiant Stadium back then but I don't see it now.

That's the deal. If they still had a championship-level hoops program, it could have dragged the football program with it as Las Vegas grew.

Now, they have a metro area of 2 million. They have a NFL stadium, and Thomas & Mack is still a good college arena. But, they compete with the NFL, the NHL, possibly MLB (if the A's move there), and all of the things Las Vegas has to offer.

I don't see it, either.

UNLV's actual athletic performance has certainly been an anchor on its conference realignment prospects.

However, the Las Vegas market is, without question, the single biggest positive to UNLV and can't be discounted.

I've never understood the "pro competition" critique for college programs. Once again, I'm from the Midwest where we manage to watch both the Big Ten (or Notre Dame if that's your thing) AND the NFL and other pro sports at the very highest levels without any pro/college fan divide. Elsewhere, the most valuable college sports program (Texas) directly overlaps with the fan base of the most valuable NFL team (Dallas Cowboys).

The point is that any market that has any value at all HAS pro sports and other entertainment options. The two largest markets that currently aren't legitimately covered by at least one P5 school (e.g. a flagship with a broad enough fan base can deliver a market even if that flagship isn't directly in that market) are San Diego and Las Vegas. If UNLV were even halfway competent in football, they would be in a P5 league already because the number of markets of any value that don't already have P5 competition is truly only down to them and San Diego.

Depends on how you define markets. By DMA yes that is true. But DMA has almost zero relevancy for cable which ESPN and FoxSports1 are looking at. Cable and streaming both overcome broadcast boundaries which makes surrounding population more relevant. What surrounds Vegas are whorehouses. That may be why FoxSports had UNLV on their channels zero times.
Yesterday 12:21 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #44
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(01-25-2023 09:17 PM)No Bull Wrote:  
(01-23-2023 07:42 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  As reported by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unl...15569/amp/

UNLV needs to start winning football games and drawing crowds to have a shot.

To put it into perspective, since the D1A/1AA split, UNLV may be one of the worst football programs in FBS. That UNLV isn’t an academic giant, either, I don’t know if there’s even a concrete number of football wins UNLV can notch for consideration.
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #45
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 07:05 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-25-2023 09:17 PM)No Bull Wrote:  
(01-23-2023 07:42 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  As reported by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unl...15569/amp/

UNLV needs to start winning football games and drawing crowds to have a shot.

To put it into perspective, since the D1A/1AA split, UNLV may be one of the worst football programs in FBS. That UNLV isn’t an academic giant, either, I don’t know if there’s even a concrete number of football wins UNLV can notch for consideration.

the Las Vegas market is, without question, the single biggest positive to UNLV and can't be discounted. As it is expected to grow maybe double in the next decade. If the Pac does not want to be the "Next Big East" they will have to choose wisely on how they transform. I think it is safe to say the reason why the BIG12 is able to survive they endorsed BYU & Houston, two teams that the PAC12 snubbed recently. They need to look at markets and reinvent the conf if they want to survive.
Yesterday 08:05 AM
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Poster Offline
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Post: #46
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 08:05 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(Yesterday 07:05 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-25-2023 09:17 PM)No Bull Wrote:  
(01-23-2023 07:42 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  As reported by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unl...15569/amp/

UNLV needs to start winning football games and drawing crowds to have a shot.

To put it into perspective, since the D1A/1AA split, UNLV may be one of the worst football programs in FBS. That UNLV isn’t an academic giant, either, I don’t know if there’s even a concrete number of football wins UNLV can notch for consideration.

the Las Vegas market is, without question, the single biggest positive to UNLV and can't be discounted. As it is expected to grow maybe double in the next decade. If the Pac does not want to be the "Next Big East" they will have to choose wisely on how they transform. I think it is safe to say the reason why the BIG12 is able to survive they endorsed BYU & Houston, two teams that the PAC12 snubbed recently. They need to look at markets and reinvent the conf if they want to survive.

The PAC to a large extent already has Las Vegas, and another poster claimed that Las Vegas is already considered a home market for their crappy conference network. Why do you think the conference championship game is held in Las Vegas.

Plus Las Vegas is only the #40 sized market in the country. Las Vegas is completely surrounded by desert and has no suburbs whatsoever.
Yesterday 08:50 AM
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andybible1995 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
The Pac needs to stay at 10 members. Unless any of the remaining Big 12 members get really good at football and basketball, there's no point in adding anyone at this time.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 09:03 AM by andybible1995.)
Yesterday 09:03 AM
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #48
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 09:03 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  The Pac needs to stay at 10 members. Unless any of the remaining Big 12 members get really good at football and basketball, there's no point in adding anyone at this time.

If they stay at ten members they will not have the content to demand 30M per year. They need inventory to create content. We already know they will lose 2M per year off of Tier Three rights (Comcast overpaid for PAC12N). Maybe they can sell the PAC12 N to Apple or Amazon and combine that with ESPN to get close to 30M at 10 members, but I think the path FWD is to follow what the BIG12 did, they expanded add new markets, created inventory and increased their payout. I do not think the Pac would be able to lose USC & UCLA and the LA market and expect a pay raise. In essence while they were offered the same contract as last time it is a pay raise because it is divided 10 ways not 12. To get to 30M they will have to expand, The Presidents will have to decide to they want to be a WEST Coast Ivey and take less money or losen up on the R-1 requirement and take into account what TV Markets Amazon/Apple and ESPN desire.

I can also see scenario where Oregon and Washington will get a greater share than everyone else just to get a grant of rights signed.
Yesterday 10:33 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #49
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
I’d like to think that of the reasons the MWC, in its prime when it had Utah, TCU, and BYU, didn’t get AQ status was partly because its bottom, which was definitively UNLV and UNM football at the time, was beyond atrociously bad. Heck, back then, Colorado State and Wyoming weren’t always much to look at, either.

Poster’s got it: Las Vegas is already PAC turf. Going east with Utah and Colorado sandwiched Nevada in a way that doesn’t make it a unique college sports island that pushes any sort of footprint, even if Vegas is looking like a national transplant city.

UNLV football stinks. A nice stadium and arena are great, but you don’t need the school to get the conference to play there, I’m sure.
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Post: #50
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 10:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:03 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  The Pac needs to stay at 10 members. Unless any of the remaining Big 12 members get really good at football and basketball, there's no point in adding anyone at this time.

If they stay at ten members they will not have the content to demand 30M per year. They need inventory to create content. We already know they will lose 2M per year off of Tier Three rights (Comcast overpaid for PAC12N). Maybe they can sell the PAC12 N to Apple or Amazon and combine that with ESPN to get close to 30M at 10 members, but I think the path FWD is to follow what the BIG12 did, they expanded add new markets, created inventory and increased their payout. I do not think the Pac would be able to lose USC & UCLA and the LA market and expect a pay raise. In essence while they were offered the same contract as last time it is a pay raise because it is divided 10 ways not 12. To get to 30M they will have to expand, The Presidents will have to decide to they want to be a WEST Coast Ivey and take less money or losen up on the R-1 requirement and take into account what TV Markets Amazon/Apple and ESPN desire.

I can also see scenario where Oregon and Washington will get a greater share than everyone else just to get a grant of rights signed.

You need good inventory to increase the value. I don't see how SDSU's and SMU's mediocre inventory would somehow bump the PAC's value from $250 to $360M...or even something above $300M.

Plus, with two new teams, you risk that the expansion eliminates quality games like Utah-Oregon and Stanford-Washington to fit in weaker matchups like SDSU-Stanford and SMU-Utah.
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #51
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 11:08 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:03 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  The Pac needs to stay at 10 members. Unless any of the remaining Big 12 members get really good at football and basketball, there's no point in adding anyone at this time.

If they stay at ten members they will not have the content to demand 30M per year. They need inventory to create content. We already know they will lose 2M per year off of Tier Three rights (Comcast overpaid for PAC12N). Maybe they can sell the PAC12 N to Apple or Amazon and combine that with ESPN to get close to 30M at 10 members, but I think the path FWD is to follow what the BIG12 did, they expanded add new markets, created inventory and increased their payout. I do not think the Pac would be able to lose USC & UCLA and the LA market and expect a pay raise. In essence while they were offered the same contract as last time it is a pay raise because it is divided 10 ways not 12. To get to 30M they will have to expand, The Presidents will have to decide to they want to be a WEST Coast Ivey and take less money or losen up on the R-1 requirement and take into account what TV Markets Amazon/Apple and ESPN desire.

I can also see scenario where Oregon and Washington will get a greater share than everyone else just to get a grant of rights signed.

You need good inventory to increase the value. I don't see how SDSU's and SMU's mediocre inventory would somehow bump the PAC's value from $250 to $360M...or even something above $300M.

Plus, with two new teams, you risk that the expansion eliminates quality games like Utah-Oregon and Stanford-Washington to fit in weaker matchups like SDSU-Stanford and SMU-Utah.

As I've noted elsewhere, I don't think that's really the calculation the Pac-12 should be making, just as I didn't think the Big 12 should have gone with a small (or even no) expansion in 2021 in the wake of the UT/OU defections (and in that case, the Big 12 made the right choice by restocking with 4 schools as opposed to the bare minimum).

At the end of the day, the Pac-12 expanding back to 12 members is essentially purchasing an insurance policy against future defections. It's one thing when there are 2 obvious schools that would be future defections over everyone else, such as the case with the old Big 12 with UT and OU. In that case, UT and OU had so much power over everyone else that they could stop expansion in its tracks and there wasn't anything anyone could do about it.

That's not the case for the Pac-12. Most people *think* that Washington and Oregon are the schools that would be most likely get Big Ten invites, but it absolutely wouldn't shock me at all if the Big Ten ended up adding Stanford and Cal instead while Washington and Oregon are left behind. Likewise, Stanford and Cal can't bank on getting into the Big Ten themselves. For everyone else, no one wants to be *forced* to join the Big 12 in the event of further losses from the Pac-12 for a multitude of reasons. (To put it bluntly, the institutional snobbery of the Pac-12 is REAL, even among the Four Corners schools.) That is truly an Armageddon scenario last resort that all of the schools except maybe Arizona don't want to touch if they can avoid it at all.

So, the Pac-12 might not get full value for adding SDSU and someone else (which I think would be SMU more than UNLV). However, that's the price of an insurance policy. Most of us will pay a lot more for various types of insurance than we'll ever have in terms of claims (at least outside of health insurance), but we still buy it because that 1% chance of a total disaster would financially ruin us. Better to "lose" a relatively small amount of money to protect against that 1% disaster scenario. That's the Pac-12 - further defections could lead to the outright dissolution of the league entirely, which no one in the league wants because none of them can feel 100% confident that they're getting another conference home that they want.

I think people are VASTLY underrating how much the Pac-12 schools (outside of maybe Arizona) don't want anything to do with the Big 12, so while a lot of us here can say, "They'll get paid the same or more money in the Big 12, so it's no big deal to move if there are future defections," the reality is that the institutional snobbery combined with sheer pride (e.g. Colorado having to stoop to rejoining the Big 12 that it left or Utah having to ask to join BYU's conference) within the Pac-12 is massive (and once again I'm not talking about Stanford and Cal, but Colorado and Utah and even Arizona State trying to change its image to be more academically-oriented).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 11:44 AM by Frank the Tank.)
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #52
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 11:41 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think people are VASTLY underrating how much the Pac-12 schools (outside of maybe Arizona) don't want anything to do with the Big 12, so while a lot of us here can say, "They'll get paid the same or more money in the Big 12, so it's no big deal to move if there are future defections," the reality is that the institutional snobbery combined with sheer pride (e.g. Colorado having to stoop to rejoining the Big 12 that it left or Utah having to ask to join BYU's conference) within the Pac-12 is massive (and once again I'm not talking about Stanford and Cal, but Colorado and Utah and even Arizona State trying to change its image to be more academically-oriented).

I believe it. Also that even with the sinking ship as it appears, if PAC thought very lowly of many of the B12 schools, even someone like Iowa State, no much if anything may have changed regarding that snobbery.

Only the PAC knows who it received applications from after the Texas-OU SEC announcement. I suspect they may have received apps from many, and maybe all of the remainders. That nothing was done, with B12 hurting, THEN after USC-UCLA bolted? There are problems in that conference out there.
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Post: #53
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 11:08 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:03 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  The Pac needs to stay at 10 members. Unless any of the remaining Big 12 members get really good at football and basketball, there's no point in adding anyone at this time.

If they stay at ten members they will not have the content to demand 30M per year. They need inventory to create content. We already know they will lose 2M per year off of Tier Three rights (Comcast overpaid for PAC12N). Maybe they can sell the PAC12 N to Apple or Amazon and combine that with ESPN to get close to 30M at 10 members, but I think the path FWD is to follow what the BIG12 did, they expanded add new markets, created inventory and increased their payout. I do not think the Pac would be able to lose USC & UCLA and the LA market and expect a pay raise. In essence while they were offered the same contract as last time it is a pay raise because it is divided 10 ways not 12. To get to 30M they will have to expand, The Presidents will have to decide to they want to be a WEST Coast Ivey and take less money or losen up on the R-1 requirement and take into account what TV Markets Amazon/Apple and ESPN desire.

I can also see scenario where Oregon and Washington will get a greater share than everyone else just to get a grant of rights signed.

You need good inventory to increase the value. I don't see how SDSU's and SMU's mediocre inventory would somehow bump the PAC's value from $250 to $360M...or even something above $300M.

Plus, with two new teams, you risk that the expansion eliminates quality games like Utah-Oregon and Stanford-Washington to fit in weaker matchups like SDSU-Stanford and SMU-Utah.
Correct
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Poster Offline
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Post: #54
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 12:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 11:41 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think people are VASTLY underrating how much the Pac-12 schools (outside of maybe Arizona) don't want anything to do with the Big 12, so while a lot of us here can say, "They'll get paid the same or more money in the Big 12, so it's no big deal to move if there are future defections," the reality is that the institutional snobbery combined with sheer pride (e.g. Colorado having to stoop to rejoining the Big 12 that it left or Utah having to ask to join BYU's conference) within the Pac-12 is massive (and once again I'm not talking about Stanford and Cal, but Colorado and Utah and even Arizona State trying to change its image to be more academically-oriented).

I believe it. Also that even with the sinking ship as it appears, if PAC thought very lowly of many of the B12 schools, even someone like Iowa State, no much if anything may have changed regarding that snobbery.

Only the PAC knows who it received applications from after the Texas-OU SEC announcement. I suspect they may have received apps from many, and maybe all of the remainders. That nothing was done, with B12 hurting, THEN after USC-UCLA bolted? There are problems in that conference out there.



The PAC wouldn’t even take an Oklahoma-Oklahoma State package in 2011.


It’s not clear that the PAC really ever valued anybody in the Big 12 except for Texas. Even Oklahoma almost seemed to be considered the cost of getting Texas.

And actually even Texas got rejected by the PAC around 1990, although the PAC finally saw their value 20 years later.

It’s pretty pathetic to go from that mindset to looking at schools like SDSU, SMU, UNLV and God knows who else.
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #55
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 12:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 11:41 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think people are VASTLY underrating how much the Pac-12 schools (outside of maybe Arizona) don't want anything to do with the Big 12, so while a lot of us here can say, "They'll get paid the same or more money in the Big 12, so it's no big deal to move if there are future defections," the reality is that the institutional snobbery combined with sheer pride (e.g. Colorado having to stoop to rejoining the Big 12 that it left or Utah having to ask to join BYU's conference) within the Pac-12 is massive (and once again I'm not talking about Stanford and Cal, but Colorado and Utah and even Arizona State trying to change its image to be more academically-oriented).

I believe it. Also that even with the sinking ship as it appears, if PAC thought very lowly of many of the B12 schools, even someone like Iowa State, no much if anything may have changed regarding that snobbery.

Only the PAC knows who it received applications from after the Texas-OU SEC announcement. I suspect they may have received apps from many, and maybe all of the remainders. That nothing was done, with B12 hurting, THEN after USC-UCLA bolted? There are problems in that conference out there.

Right - it's a given that every Big 12 member was going to take an invite from any of the other P5 members in 2021. The creation of the Big Ten/Pac-12/ACC Alliance, as short-lived and farcical it was, also glaringly highlighted that the rest of the P5 looked at themselves as being above the Big 12. That perception has been engrained in these schools ever since the poaching of the Big 12 started in 2010 and it's not going away easily. They could very well look at the landscape and say, "We'd legitimately rather be in the closest thing that the West Coast has to the Ivy League than make a few more million dollars in TV money compared to the Big 12. We'll take that financial haircut to preserve our group." Sure, any of those Pac-12 schools would take a Big Ten invite in a heartbeat because they get the double whammy of both more athletic money *and* academic prestige, but I wouldn't apply that to the prospects of them moving to the Big 12 outside of truly having zero other options for power conference membership survival.

Once again, I don't think this is just a Stanford/Cal issue. Washington is just as elitist as the Bay Area schools, Colorado looks at itself that way when it comes to graduate programs, Oregon is trying to keep itself in the AAU, and Utah just joined the AAU while having serious issues in its relationship with BYU (to put it mildly).
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Post: #56
RE: UNLV AD Eyes Potential Move to Power 5 Conference
(Yesterday 12:39 PM)Poster Wrote:  
(Yesterday 12:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 11:41 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think people are VASTLY underrating how much the Pac-12 schools (outside of maybe Arizona) don't want anything to do with the Big 12, so while a lot of us here can say, "They'll get paid the same or more money in the Big 12, so it's no big deal to move if there are future defections," the reality is that the institutional snobbery combined with sheer pride (e.g. Colorado having to stoop to rejoining the Big 12 that it left or Utah having to ask to join BYU's conference) within the Pac-12 is massive (and once again I'm not talking about Stanford and Cal, but Colorado and Utah and even Arizona State trying to change its image to be more academically-oriented).

I believe it. Also that even with the sinking ship as it appears, if PAC thought very lowly of many of the B12 schools, even someone like Iowa State, no much if anything may have changed regarding that snobbery.

Only the PAC knows who it received applications from after the Texas-OU SEC announcement. I suspect they may have received apps from many, and maybe all of the remainders. That nothing was done, with B12 hurting, THEN after USC-UCLA bolted? There are problems in that conference out there.



The PAC wouldn’t even take an Oklahoma-Oklahoma State package in 2011.


It’s not clear that the PAC really ever valued anybody in the Big 12 except for Texas. Even Oklahoma almost seemed to be considered the cost of getting Texas.

And actually even Texas got rejected by the PAC around 1990, although the PAC finally saw their value 20 years later.

It’s pretty pathetic to go from that mindset to looking at schools like SDSU, SMU, UNLV and God knows who else.

I think the PAC stays at 10 unless it can poach from the XII. If the B1G poaches from the PAC, I can see the XII bringing in PAC schools well before the PAC invites non-power schools. Inviting non-power schools looks much less like a lateral move than moving to the XII.

The XII is in a really good position.
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