jimrtex
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RE: $150 million dollar question.
(01-24-2023 08:34 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (01-23-2023 11:23 PM)jimrtex Wrote: (01-23-2023 06:21 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: The hypothetical is too clear cut in the sense that it’s “easy money” - anyone and everyone is taking $150 million from a U.S. TV network. There’s not much of a hard choice there.
I’d be much more interested in where this dilemma is *actually* happening: massive amounts of money *are* being offered in sports without regard to whether it would make a profit… but it’s coming from places like Saudi Arabia and Qatar where there is a lot of consternation about human rights issues and, in the case of American academia, taking money from places that directly contravene their environmental and sustainability mandates.
Are any US universities going to be willing to take *that* type of money (particularly with how academia is across the board no matter if it’s a blue state or red state location)? The fact that LIV Golf is paying out monster contracts to big-name golfers but can’t get a TV deal in the US without giving away for free is instructive.
I apparently did not explain my premise very well. This competition would be limited to 16 schools. They would likely have to give up their conference payments in exchange for the $150 million.
Our initial invitation is limited to the nine schools that have finished in the Top 16 CFP poll a majority of the time (5/9).
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Penn State.
We then make the offer to 13 schools that have finished in the Top 16 3 or 4 times.
Auburn, Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Iowa, Michigan State, Mississippi, Oklahoma State, USC, Utah, TCU, Washington, and Wisconsin.
If this resulted in more than 16 teams total, these teams would have a playoff to determine the 16 teams.
The offer could be extended to other schools if necessary.
To be honest and as I think about it more, I don’t think $150 million would be enough for the Big Ten schools with the TV contract that they just signed. Probably not for the SEC schools, either.
In any event, a Super League isn’t going to base its invites solely on performance during the CFP era. Any setup of the sort is about the most powerful brands. There’s a strong correlation between performance and brand value there, but it’s not a one-to-one relationship. For instance, Texas wouldn’t qualify based on your criteria even though they would be a must-have invite #1 from a business perspective if I’m paying out $150 million per school for a Super League. This entire conference realignment board exists because multiple leagues deemed Texas to be the most valuable school for expansion back in 2010. Not having Texas in a Super League is a non-starter just as not having any pro football Super League without the Dallas Cowboys would be a non-starter.
It goes back to who outside of the Big Ten or SEC would actually even have a chance for a Super League in the first place. Florida State and Miami would for sure… but I don’t think Oregon and Washington are no-brainers or else they would have been invited to the Big Ten already. If they can’t add $100 million per year each to the current Big Ten, how would they be worth $150 million per year each in a Super League? There’s no one else that can be pointed to as that extraordinarily valuable for football purposes. UNC has a lot of traditional conference realignment value as an all-sports school, market location and academics, but not as a pure football play.
The Big Ten and SEC have already aggregated the schools that would be in a Super League with only a very small handful of exceptions (e.g. maybe even only a couple). Those two leagues are with other non-elite programs that still reflect other institutional goals (whether it’s presence in important markets, cultural fits, academic fits, etc.). At the rate that their TV contracts have been rising, the Big Ten and SEC could get to at least the ballpark of $150 million per year per school on their own without having to deal with schools that they otherwise don’t really want to associate themselves with. So, it would take a LOT more than $150 million each to pry them away.
On the flip side, note that the practical economics are that even at $150 million per school each, that’s at a level where that TV network would be better off just paying up for more NFL games (which would get higher ratings) instead. The NFL had 82 of the 100 most-watched TV programs in 2022. In contrast, college football had 5, with 3 of them being CFP games and 1 being the Rose Bowl. The only regular season game on the list was Michigan - Ohio State. So, college football is popular, but they’re not NFL package numbers (which is what these Super League proposals would require to realistically work out financially). There were a lot of hypothetical Super League-level matchups this year, such as Alabama-Texas, Ohio State-Penn State, and ND-Clemson, and yet *every* Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday Night NFL game got higher ratings than all of them (even the worst matchups). If I’m throwing billions of dollars around as a TV network, I’m sending that directly to the NFL for efficiency purposes.
What are the annual NFL payments? $9-$10 billion. I am only paying out $2.4 billion for a Saturday window that the NFL is legally barred from entering.
If Ohio State gets $100 million now, they are subsidizing Northwestern and Indiana, same way with Alabama and Missouri.
There could be a second tier. I don't know if you are familiar with how the English Football League evolved. It started with 12 teams, mostly in the Midlands. No teams from London. There were teams that wanted to be added, and rather than expand, they had the new clubs play in a second division. The best teams from the second division could be elected to the first division. Initially, they might look at performance, and attendance, etc. Some teams disbanded, or the first division might become larger, until they reach 20 or 22 or 24.
Eventually a third and fourth division were added, and promotion and relegation were formalized. But until recently, there was not automatic promotion from the Conference to the EFL. Teams still had to be elected, and there would be conditions such as suitable (size and all-seater) grounds.
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