IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

TCB!

I agree. My target for this team is 21-8 as well. Losing both Houston games, and away game somewhere gets us something around 28 - 33 in the NET IMO. More than enough to make the tournament. That Cincy win gave us some breathing room

(01-23-2023 01:45 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  I agree. My target for this team is 21-8 as well. Losing both Houston games, and away game somewhere gets us something around 28 - 33 in the NET IMO. More than enough to make the tournament. That Cincy win gave us some breathing room

We have a pretty good chance of taking Houston at the Forum, especially if we get some players back.

(01-23-2023 01:45 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  I agree. My target for this team is 21-8 as well. Losing both Houston games, and away game somewhere gets us something around 28 - 33 in the NET IMO. More than enough to make the tournament. That Cincy win gave us some breathing room

I would really prefer not to be in the 8/9 game again.

GTG! TCB!

(01-23-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

Seems about right. Need to handle business and not slip up to inferior teams. I think the the Tigers can split with Houston. If we protect home court, we can afford to drop a road game, say Wichita State, and still finish with 7 losses heading into the conference tournament.

However, Penny teams can be frustrating. Just when you think they are rounding into form, they go and do something that drives us all nuts.

I'll have to temper my expectations and let it all unfold.

(01-23-2023 05:20 PM)TiminMem23 Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

Seems about right. Need to handle business and not slip up to inferior teams. I think the the Tigers can split with Houston. If we protect home court, we can afford to drop a road game, say Wichita State, and still finish with 7 losses heading into the conference tournament.

However, Penny teams can be frustrating. Just when you think they are rounding into form, they go and do something that drives us all nuts.

I'll have to temper my expectations and let it all unfold.

The game I have circled is at USF. They have lost close games including to us and Houston, and handled UCF very easily. They are up and down, but they can play well.

(01-23-2023 01:49 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 01:45 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  I agree. My target for this team is 21-8 as well. Losing both Houston games, and away game somewhere gets us something around 28 - 33 in the NET IMO. More than enough to make the tournament. That Cincy win gave us some breathing room

We have a pretty good chance of taking Houston at the Forum, especially if we get some players back.

Jayden is back, will get more minutes as he gets into game shape.
Malcolm should be back soon.Same goes for him. They need to get about 20 minutes a game from him.

(01-23-2023 05:49 PM)Stammers Wrote:  The game I have circled is at USF. They have lost close games including to us and Houston, and handled UCF very easily. They are up and down, but they can play well.

It simply boils down to Harris and his performance on any given night. Aside from the Houston game, among their string of losses since they played us, he wasn't the top scorer (for the Bulls) in the game. When he's been able to put up the most points, they win.

(01-23-2023 05:55 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 01:49 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 01:45 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  I agree. My target for this team is 21-8 as well. Losing both Houston games, and away game somewhere gets us something around 28 - 33 in the NET IMO. More than enough to make the tournament. That Cincy win gave us some breathing room

We have a pretty good chance of taking Houston at the Forum, especially if we get some players back.

Jayden is back, will get more minutes as he gets into game shape.
Malcolm should be back soon.Same goes for him. They need to get about 20 minutes a game from him.

I'm hoping Penny gives Jayden's spot to Kennedy.

I would have thought at the beginning of the season, that one out of Kennedy, McCadden or Franklin would have eaten into Lomax' minutes considerably. When Lomax is in the game, KD can conserve a bit of energy. He doesn't have to bring the ball up the court or chase the other team's point guard. We need for one of them to be able to do a little bit of that.

The other thing, is that it would be nice to get KD down to 28 or at least 32 minutes in some of our games. He is logging too many miles, considering what he has to do when he is out there.

I’ll feel a lot better this time next week if we are 17-5.

What happened last time we were all feeling good and waiting for the polls to come out the next day? Tulane.

We need to go out and smoke SMU and Tulsa. That will put us at 17-5 and we will have a 6 day break before Tulane at home. Hopefully we can start to get a little healthier.

(01-23-2023 06:20 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  I’ll feel a lot better this time next week if we are 17-5.

What happened last time we were all feeling good and waiting for the polls to come out the next day? Tulane.

We need to go out and smoke SMU and Tulsa. That will put us at 17-5 and we will have a 6 day break before Tulane at home. Hopefully we can start to get a little healthier.

I know it's not the prevailing opinion, but we need to run the score up as high as we can too. Just in case. Won't hurt and it might game the NET.

(01-23-2023 05:49 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 05:20 PM)TiminMem23 Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

Seems about right. Need to handle business and not slip up to inferior teams. I think the the Tigers can split with Houston. If we protect home court, we can afford to drop a road game, say Wichita State, and still finish with 7 losses heading into the conference tournament.

However, Penny teams can be frustrating. Just when you think they are rounding into form, they go and do something that drives us all nuts.

I'll have to temper my expectations and let it all unfold.

The game I have circled is at USF. They have lost close games including to us and Houston, and handled UCF very easily. They are up and down, but they can play well.

They for sure gave us a scare here. I was at the game last year in Tampa. The home court advantage won’t be a factor. Yuengling Center had more people in Penny jerseys than they had USF fans.

On Jerry palm’s update today we are an 8 seed.

On lunardis update today we are off the bubble. Time to string together some wins.

(01-23-2023 07:16 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  On Jerry palm’s update today we are an 8 seed.

On lunardis update today we are off the bubble. Time to string together some wins.

Win 2 games this week and the bubble talk probably goes away

We really need some more Quad 1 wins. It would help if Cincy (81) or Vandy (85) can win a few games and move up a few spots. Currently we are 1-3.

(01-23-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

(01-23-2023 08:57 PM)mairving Wrote:  We really need some more Quad 1 wins. It would help if Cincy (81) or Vandy (85) can win a few games and move up a few spots. Currently we are 1-3.

Certainly wouldn’t hurt. But our ticket at this point relies on no bad losses. If cincy becomes a quad one and we take a quad 3 or 4 loss it cancels out. Win all the quad 3 and 4 games left on schedule and root like hell for Auburn, vandy, A and M, and maybe most importantly Tulane. We need them to stay top 135 or that turns into a quad 3 loss.

(01-23-2023 09:01 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  

(01-23-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  IMO, we need to be 21-8 and then win 1 game going into the tournament. The only two teams that we need to beat to lock down the bid are UCF and Cincinnati, both on our home floor. We can lose both games to Houston and one other game before the conference tournament. We will be favoured in all of our 11 games, except the two against Houston. By the time the regular season finale comes along, we might even be favoured at home against Houston.

If we beat UCF and Cincinnati, we are 3-1 against the other two teams that could get the conference's second bid. We will easily have a much better NET than both of them if we beat them.

If UCF beats Houston during the regular season, and then again in the conference tournament, we will become a 3 bid league. We won't be knocked out with a NET in the mid 30's. On a side note, our NET probably won't improve more than 10 points even if we win our next 5, because we are playing very bad opponents. Also, I expect USF to be an extremely tight game.

22-9 likely gets us a 9 seed. Beat Houston at least once and finish 23-8 and we are likely an 8 seed. Beat Houston once and reach the conference tournament final and we are likely a 6-7 seed. Win the conference tournament and likely a 4-5.

(01-23-2023 08:57 PM)mairving Wrote:  We really need some more Quad 1 wins. It would help if Cincy (81) or Vandy (85) can win a few games and move up a few spots. Currently we are 1-3.

Certainly wouldn’t hurt. But our ticket at this point relies on no bad losses. If cincy becomes a quad one and we take a quad 3 or 4 loss it cancels out. Win all the quad 3 and 4 games left on schedule and root like hell for Auburn, vandy, A and M, and maybe most importantly Tulane. We need them to stay top 135 or that turns into a quad 3 loss.

Auburn is a 23 currently so they are safe for Q1, A&M should stay a Q2, they are at 52 and need to remain in the top 75.