(01-27-2023 01:17 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 11:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Question: why would an unaffiliated fan from Orange, Riverside, etc Counties suddenly start pulling for San Diego St instead of USC or UCLA?

I get that San Diego St has some untapped potential, I just don’t see a lot of it coming from outside of San Diego Co unless it’s friends and family of students and alumni in the bordering counties.

For the PAC it doesn't matter if those people become SDSU fans it just goes to show how important it is for them to maintain a footprint in the region.

LA County - 10M
San Diego County - 3.3M
Orange County - 3.2M
Riverside County - 2.4M
San Bernardino County - 2.2M

Total - 21.1M

That's the 5 most populated counties in California and they're all in Southern California (if you include Imperial, Santa Barbara, and Ventura that's another 1.5M). The PAC just lost a large chunk of that, are they willing to cede all of it?

Yes - that’s the core figure. We can talk all day about whether SDSU has a large fan base or not or whether they’re getting fans in Orange County or not, but those 5 Southern California regions put together are the size of the entire State of Florida by population. The Pac-12 can’t just give up on a region that’s the size of Florida or, even worse, give even a slight chance of the Big 12 getting the only other school there besides USC/UCLA while the Pac-12 is shut out entirely.

Like I’ve said, this is a specific situation for the Pac-12 akin to the Big 12 being in a position where it had *zero* schools in the State of Texas and, even worse, there only 1 single FBS option as opposed to multiple options (as there in Texas). Someone intimated that SDSU hit the jackpot location lottery and I think that’s the case here. This analysis wouldn’t apply to any other single school in any other conference where the location in and of itself is way too important to leave a gap. People need to see that the Pac-12-SDSU situation is wholly unique in a way that’s totally different from the normal “Is this expansion going to make us more TV money?” analysis.

(01-27-2023 04:00 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 03:56 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 11:09 AM)YNot Wrote:  Arizona moves to the Big 12.

At that point, only OSU and WSU would be left in the Pac-12, I'd assume the Big XII would take them, too?

I think the Big 12 *could* take Oregon State and Wazzu, but I wouldn't assume that and I'm not convinced that they would.

Are Oregon State and Wazzu combined worth $62M+ to ESPN and FOX? I don't think they are. If given the choice, I think the Big 12 would grab Arizona and then San Diego State over Oregon State or Washington State.

Even if Oregon State and Washington State are revenue neutral for the Big 12, it certainly seems like teams need to be more than revenue neutral when conferences expand to 16 or more.

(01-27-2023 10:57 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 09:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 11:40 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 11:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Question: why would an unaffiliated fan from Orange, Riverside, etc Counties suddenly start pulling for San Diego St instead of USC or UCLA?

I get that San Diego St has some untapped potential, I just don’t see a lot of it coming from outside of San Diego Co unless it’s friends and family of students and alumni in the bordering counties.

I can tell you why. Parts of Riverside County like Lake Elsinore are just 30 mins from Mission Valley whereas they are, again depending on traffic, a couple hours or more from USC or UCLA. LA Traffic and what side of it you are on has a big impact on what you may or may not do.

Proximity does not necessarily mean that you gain a following. In Ohio, we’ve got plenty of people who are within 25 miles of BGSU, Toledo, Ohio, Kent St, Akron, Miami, and Cincinnati who are t-shirt Ohio St fans and know little to nothing about the team in their own backyard. Casual fans tend to gravitate to your bigger brands, even if a smaller one is closer.

Yes and no. Depends on affinity. Ohio State has affinity across Ohio. And Ohio traffic is nothing like LA traffic or distances in CA.

Most people in the east are shocked at the distance apart things are in the west and conversely westerners are shocked how close things are in the east. Columbus to Cincinatti is a 90 min drive. 90 minutes doesn’t get you very far in LA especially in traffic which is a lot of the time. My commute from Fullerton to Diamond Bar often took 45 minutes and that was only 16 miles.

You can take 45 minutes getting from the rental car dropoff to LAX!

(01-28-2023 07:22 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-27-2023 01:17 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 11:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Question: why would an unaffiliated fan from Orange, Riverside, etc Counties suddenly start pulling for San Diego St instead of USC or UCLA?

I get that San Diego St has some untapped potential, I just don’t see a lot of it coming from outside of San Diego Co unless it’s friends and family of students and alumni in the bordering counties.

For the PAC it doesn't matter if those people become SDSU fans it just goes to show how important it is for them to maintain a footprint in the region.

LA County - 10M
San Diego County - 3.3M
Orange County - 3.2M
Riverside County - 2.4M
San Bernardino County - 2.2M

Total - 21.1M

That's the 5 most populated counties in California and they're all in Southern California (if you include Imperial, Santa Barbara, and Ventura that's another 1.5M). The PAC just lost a large chunk of that, are they willing to cede all of it?

Yes - that’s the core figure. We can talk all day about whether SDSU has a large fan base or not or whether they’re getting fans in Orange County or not, but those 5 Southern California regions put together are the size of the entire State of Florida by population. The Pac-12 can’t just give up on a region that’s the size of Florida or, even worse, give even a slight chance of the Big 12 getting the only other school there besides USC/UCLA while the Pac-12 is shut out entirely.

Like I’ve said, this is a specific situation for the Pac-12 akin to the Big 12 being in a position where it had *zero* schools in the State of Texas and, even worse, there only 1 single FBS option as opposed to multiple options (as there in Texas). Someone intimated that SDSU hit the jackpot location lottery and I think that’s the case here. This analysis wouldn’t apply to any other single school in any other conference where the location in and of itself is way too important to leave a gap. People need to see that the Pac-12-SDSU situation is wholly unique in a way that’s totally different from the normal “Is this expansion going to make us more TV money?” analysis.

Don't forget the 2 million plus in Tijuana.