Commentary by Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/...8838c.html

(01-19-2023 01:13 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Commentary by Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/...8838c.html

Eh. Loyola is stinking it up this year, but its hard to say the MVC is great and the A-10 sucks when the A-10 is ahead of them in the NET ratings (along with several other non-power leagues).

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2...conference

I think the MVC did well in their recovery, but not at the expense of the A-10.

He’s looking right so far. Until 2018, Loyola had 1 NCAA Tournament in a 50-year stretch. Now that Porter, Krutwig, & friends have washed out, Loyola’s back to where they were those 50 years.

Loyola’s NET is 289. 289! And that’s with 2 seniors who were top players on the Sweet 16 team.

Murray and Belmont are programs who’ve been sustainable for decades. So the MVC lucked out with Loyola’s 5-year golden age, and then may have just accidentally rid itself of a 50-year albatross.

(01-19-2023 01:44 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:13 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Commentary by Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/...8838c.html

Eh. Loyola is stinking it up this year, but its hard to say the MVC is great and the A-10 sucks when the A-10 is ahead of them in the NET ratings (along with several other non-power leagues).

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2...conference

I think the MVC did well in their recovery, but not at the expense of the A-10.

I think the writer moreso means swapping out a freefalling Loyola for a sustainable Belmont/Murray made the MVC winners in that swap.

The league’s performance this year hasn’t been good, but it’s because of their already existing members (Evansville, Valparaiso) - as opposed to any impact from realignment (UIC has been bad, but even they have a better NET than Loyola).

All we know for sure is that right now, today, as things stand, the Valley would not benefit from having Loyola basketball.

Nobody can predict the future, but we do know what today looks like.

You don’t make long term decisions based on short term results. The A10 certainly doesn’t suck, but they may have acquired an albatross.

(01-19-2023 01:55 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  You don’t make long term decisions based on short term results. The A10 certainly doesn’t suck, but they may have acquired an albatross.

I don't think Loyola will be a long term burden on the A-10. I could be wrong, but they seem to have some ambition about them now and I doubt poor results will be tolerated for long.

A good read. I enjoyed.

I remember as a kid when Memphis (then Memphis State) was in the Missouri Valley from 1968 to 1973. As a Tiger fan, I remember my father talking about the Valley. It's exciting to see Belmont now in the MVC, and I watched a good bit of the Bruins vs. Murray game earlier this week. That rivalry was strong in the OVC but even better now.

I wish Loyola well in the A10 but the Valley will be fine. Gordon highlights that well in his article.

Loyola is a very good institutional fit for the A-10 both academically and athletically. One bad season doesn’t change that.

Loyola wasn’t much to look at when MVC tapped them, but understood the value of having a Chicago school and a reputable one at that. A better choice for the Valley than UIC, I guess, but it didn’t make for better basketball. I was annoyed for the likes of Murray State and ORU that they couldn’t get the nod.

I’m not surprised A10 got them. But, I do worry that they’ll become George Mason. The best work being behind them. One deals with a Saint Louis-type who only gets good when they want to be somewhere else, but, at least the conference benefits from that good play. We don’t need another Fordham, Mason, or Duquesne though, even if you have the metro area in the footprint.

Still, in both the A10 and MVC’s cases with Loyola…at least it was them and not Detroit Mercy. Ick.

(01-19-2023 02:04 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:55 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  You don’t make long term decisions based on short term results. The A10 certainly doesn’t suck, but they may have acquired an albatross.

I don't think Loyola will be a long term burden on the A-10. I could be wrong, but they seem to have some ambition about them now and I doubt poor results will be tolerated for long.

I don’t think any conference has as many up and down programs as the A10. Virtually all of them have been high achievers at some point, and just about any time, they have a few that are currently.

With few exceptions, even the current bottom teams have been highly competitive in relatively recent history. Look at UMass, St Joes, URI, GW. All have been good, and most likely will again, but they haven’t done much in recent years.

Loyola very well may be the same. The A10 has always been the kind of league that has some pretty crappy teams, along with whoever is good at the moment. Other than Dayton, few have been too consistent.

Jeff Gordon, the master of hyperbole.

One season doesn’t a bad fit make. See Mizzou 2012

Ugh - that's some circa-2005 "think like a fan" conference realignment analysis: "Valuable School leaves Lower Conference for Better Conference but Valuable School struggles in Better Conference in Year 1 while the Lower Conference replacements are performing well, so therefore Lower Conference wins in conference realignment!"

Look - I really have a lot of personal affinity for the MVC. As someone whose parents met at UIC (giving two low income people that had *zero* money for college an affordable education that allowed them to move into the upper middle class) and my late father having worked on that campus for the majority of his career, the move by Loyola was great for me in the sense that I'm very happy to see UIC move up.

However, it's obtuse to think that the MVC is better off without Loyola - a Chicago school that has been to the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen over the past few years in an MVC where most of its members literally wouldn't *survive* without Chicago-area students - for any reason. The MVC isn't better off academically, location-wise or competitively without Loyola for the long-term (not just one season).

By the same token, Loyola moved to an A-10 that is in a much stronger position than the MVC for conference realignment purposes where the only league that's realistically poaching from them is the Big East. Note that the A-10 is at 15 members. If/when they're looking for #16, you better believe that Belmont is going to be VERY high on that list and the MVC could very well be in the same backfilling position yet again. Whether or not Loyola has a bad season doesn't change that calculus.

Mason doesn't belong in the same conversation with Fordham and Duquesne. They haven't been great but haven't been as bad as either of those two.

(01-19-2023 02:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Ugh - that's some circa-2005 "think like a fan" conference realignment analysis: "Valuable School leaves Lower Conference for Better Conference but Valuable School struggles in Better Conference in Year 1 while the Lower Conference replacements are performing well, so therefore Lower Conference wins in conference realignment!"

Look - I really have a lot of personal affinity for the MVC. As someone whose parents met at UIC (giving two low income people that had *zero* money for college an affordable education that allowed them to move into the upper middle class) and my late father having worked on that campus for the majority of his career, the move by Loyola was great for me in the sense that I'm very happy to see UIC move up.

However, it's obtuse to think that the MVC is better off without Loyola - a Chicago school that has been to the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen over the past few years in an MVC where most of its members literally wouldn't *survive* without Chicago-area students - for any reason. The MVC isn't better off academically, location-wise or competitively without Loyola for the long-term (not just one season).

By the same token, Loyola moved to an A-10 that is in a much stronger position than the MVC for conference realignment purposes where the only league that's realistically poaching from them is the Big East. Note that the A-10 is at 15 members. If/when they're looking for #16, you better believe that Belmont is going to be VERY high on that list and the MVC could very well be in the same backfilling position yet again. Whether or not Loyola has a bad season doesn't change that calculus.

I've been saying Loyola was a bad add since before they even played a game in the A-10, so this isn't Johnny Come Lately analysis.

(01-19-2023 03:31 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Ugh - that's some circa-2005 "think like a fan" conference realignment analysis: "Valuable School leaves Lower Conference for Better Conference but Valuable School struggles in Better Conference in Year 1 while the Lower Conference replacements are performing well, so therefore Lower Conference wins in conference realignment!"

Look - I really have a lot of personal affinity for the MVC. As someone whose parents met at UIC (giving two low income people that had *zero* money for college an affordable education that allowed them to move into the upper middle class) and my late father having worked on that campus for the majority of his career, the move by Loyola was great for me in the sense that I'm very happy to see UIC move up.

However, it's obtuse to think that the MVC is better off without Loyola - a Chicago school that has been to the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen over the past few years in an MVC where most of its members literally wouldn't *survive* without Chicago-area students - for any reason. The MVC isn't better off academically, location-wise or competitively without Loyola for the long-term (not just one season).

By the same token, Loyola moved to an A-10 that is in a much stronger position than the MVC for conference realignment purposes where the only league that's realistically poaching from them is the Big East. Note that the A-10 is at 15 members. If/when they're looking for #16, you better believe that Belmont is going to be VERY high on that list and the MVC could very well be in the same backfilling position yet again. Whether or not Loyola has a bad season doesn't change that calculus.

I've been saying Loyola was a bad add since before they even played a game in the A-10, so this isn't Johnny Come Lately analysis.

People could point to Loyola's 1 NCAA Tournament in the 50 years before 2018 as evidence they would fall right back into what they were once the Porter/Krutwig remnants graduated.

No other "struggle in Year 1" examples compare to Loyola because there's no one who vaulted up just 5 years removed from 50 years of sustained futility.

I'm an MVC guy and I was certainly happy when I heard that the A10 was taking Loyola. I knew their program would turn into a dumpster fire again, I just can't believe it has happened so quickly. UIC is a better institutional fit for the league anyways, especially since they have a baseball program. After the Belmont, Murray State, and UIC adds (all 3 have baseball), the MVC no longer needed DBU. Just to be clear though, DBU left on their own. The MVC didn't force them out.

I doubt the MVC will expand beyond 12 unless someone leaves. Missouri State seems to flirt with FBS football, but I often wonder if that's more their fans than the actual administration. I also think that Belmont could be a prime target for the A10 if they go to 16. Nashville is basically halfway between Charlotte (Davidson) and St Louis (SLU).

If Belmont ever leaves I think Northern Kentucky, St Thomas, UMKC, and Milwaukee would be the finalists. The MVC needs to add an exit fee like the SOCON did to discourage movement. We could also find out if anyone opposes it.

I feel pretty confident that Indiana State, Evansville, Valpo, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Drake, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, and UIC will be in the league for a long time to come. Probably Bradley too, but some of their fans think they are all that.

(01-19-2023 04:05 PM)mvfcfan Wrote:  I'm an MVC guy and I was certainly happy when I heard that the A10 was taking Loyola. I knew their program would turn into a dumpster fire again, I just can't believe it has happened so quickly. UIC is a better institutional fit for the league anyways, especially since they have a baseball program. After the Belmont, Murray State, and UIC adds (all 3 have baseball), the MVC no longer needed DBU. Just to be clear though, DBU left on their own. The MVC didn't force them out.

I doubt the MVC will expand beyond 12 unless someone leaves. Missouri State seems to flirt with FBS football, but I often wonder if that's more their fans than the actual administration. I also think that Belmont could be a prime target for the A10 if they go to 16. Nashville is basically halfway between Charlotte (Davidson) and St Louis (SLU).

If Belmont ever leaves I think Northern Kentucky, St Thomas, UMKC, and Milwaukee would be the finalists. The MVC needs to add an exit fee like the SOCON did to discourage movement. We could also find out if anyone opposes it.

I feel pretty confident that Indiana State, Evansville, Valpo, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Drake, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, and UIC will be in the league for a long time to come. Probably Bradley too, but some of their fans think they are all that.

My understanding is that Belmont officials are quite pleased with the MVC and would likely view the league as being more practical (from a travel perspective) than the A10 (not that an A10 invite will ever come). I could see Belmont being a Valley member for many years — though I'm on record on this board as liking the A10 for Belmont due to that league's many members being "city schools" like BU.

Worth noting: Belmont accepts a fairly significant number of students from Illinois, Indiana and Missouri (thus making the MVC membership all the more understandable).

https://www.belmont.edu/oair/factbook/ad...shmen.html