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Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #1
Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
We're due for one, we get one every five years or so (not counting Butler, who was a single digit seed for both of their runs). So whose it gonna be? 2/3 the way through the season here are some candidates:

(In alphabetical order)

College of Charleston
Cornell
Drake
Florida Atlantic
Iona
Kent State
Liberty
Oral Roberts
Seattle
Southern Illinois
Southern Miss
UC-Santa Barbara
01-18-2023 10:30 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-18-2023 10:30 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  We're due for one, we get one every five years or so (not counting Butler, who was a single digit seed for both of their runs). So whose it gonna be? 2/3 the way through the season here are some candidates:

(In alphabetical order)

College of Charleston
Cornell
Drake
Florida Atlantic
Iona
Kent State
Liberty
Oral Roberts
Seattle
Southern Illinois
Southern Miss
UC-Santa Barbara

Whoever wins the Missouri Valley. The winner will probably be a 12 seed when all is said and done.
01-18-2023 10:32 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
Oral Roberts looks the most like a George Mason/VCU/Wichita/Loyola to me.

Charleston too, but I think they'll be a single digit seed.
01-18-2023 10:35 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-18-2023 10:32 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(01-18-2023 10:30 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  We're due for one, we get one every five years or so (not counting Butler, who was a single digit seed for both of their runs). So whose it gonna be? 2/3 the way through the season here are some candidates:

(In alphabetical order)

College of Charleston
Cornell
Drake
Florida Atlantic
Iona
Kent State
Liberty
Oral Roberts
Seattle
Southern Illinois
Southern Miss
UC-Santa Barbara

Whoever wins the Missouri Valley. The winner will probably be a 12 seed when all is said and done.

Historically, that's the safe bet. I don't see that capability in any of this year's teams though. It's basically an 8-team blob of 75-150 caliber teams.
01-18-2023 10:37 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
I know most are gonna go with Charleston or FAU but:

A. There's a chance they get single digit seeds and

B. These random mid-majors came from obscurity during the regular season, often finishing a little low in their conference's standings.
01-18-2023 10:39 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
The Belmont Bruins are getting better by the game (but I've now likely jinxed them).
01-18-2023 10:52 PM
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Todor Online
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Post: #7
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
It’s often a team who’s resume may not be that impressive overall, but is very good late in the season. After a team has some losses early, their record never looks that impressive. Look for those teams that are 8-2, 9-1, 10-0 in their last 10, even if they have 10 losses on the season.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2023 11:08 PM by Todor.)
01-18-2023 11:07 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
We're really not due for one and the reality is the nation wants them up to the Elite 8. We want big brands in the Final Four.

Their success is entirely based on the matchups they receive from the committee.
01-18-2023 11:54 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
How are we not due for one? On average, we've been getting one every 5 or so years (George Mason 2006, VCU 2011, Loyola 2018) not even counting Butler, who made it back-to-back years. With parity and the lack of dominant teams compared to the past, if anything it'll happen more often.
01-19-2023 12:05 AM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
Also I agree about their success being due to the matchups given by the selection committee.
01-19-2023 12:07 AM
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WhoseHouse? Online
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Post: #11
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
I kind of like Kent St.
01-19-2023 04:41 AM
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Fresno St. Alum Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
How many NCAA virgins are getting in this year?
01-19-2023 04:45 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-18-2023 10:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Oral Roberts looks the most like a George Mason/VCU/Wichita/Loyola to me.

Charleston too, but I think they'll be a single digit seed.

Yeah, if Charleston is lucky and the committee is generous, CoC gets the 6-line. But I don’t think they’ll get that high, and they’ll end up in the 7-10 “stew.”

Were UNCW to steal the CAA AQ…that might be interesting. UMass-Lowell was interesting for a bit, too.
01-19-2023 06:52 AM
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jimrtex Offline
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-19-2023 04:45 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  How many NCAA virgins are getting in this year?
Three (or 2).

Based on odds of winning conference tournament from teamrankings.com:

0 3.0%
1 13.1%
2 24.9%
3 27.1%
4 18.9%
5 9.0%
6 3.1%
7 0.8%
8 0.1%

16% 0 or 1
71% 2 to 4
13% 5 or more

Likely 1 of SIUE/UT Martin or Youngstown St/Fort Wayne
Likely 1 of UMass Lowell/New Hampshire/Maine/NJIT or Grambling/Bethune-Cookman or Utah Valley/Cal Baptist/UTRGV or Sacred Heart/St.Francis (Brooklyn)
Likely 1 of 23 others

This assumes no at-large. Utah Valley has a NET ranking of 80, all others are over 100.
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2023 09:02 PM by jimrtex.)
01-19-2023 03:40 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  How are we not due for one? On average, we've been getting one every 5 or so years (George Mason 2006, VCU 2011, Loyola 2018) not even counting Butler, who made it back-to-back years. With parity and the lack of dominant teams compared to the past, if anything it'll happen more often.

While it's true that those three made it in the most recent 16 tournaments, it's also true, unless I am mistaken, that those are the only ones to have ever done so in the history of the tournament. So it is rare.
01-19-2023 07:49 PM
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whittx Offline
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
Not Cornell. This team isn't as good as the 09-10 loaded with seniors that went to the Sweet 16 in their third straight tournament. That team was a 12 seed.
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2023 08:38 PM by whittx.)
01-19-2023 08:36 PM
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WhoseHouse? Online
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Post: #17
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-19-2023 07:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  How are we not due for one? On average, we've been getting one every 5 or so years (George Mason 2006, VCU 2011, Loyola 2018) not even counting Butler, who made it back-to-back years. With parity and the lack of dominant teams compared to the past, if anything it'll happen more often.

While it's true that those three made it in the most recent 16 tournaments, it's also true, unless I am mistaken, that those are the only ones to have ever done so in the history of the tournament. So it is rare.

This. But also we kind of got this last year with Saint Peters anyway. They didn’t make the final four but given their seed, I’d say it was even more impressive.
01-19-2023 09:00 PM
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jimrtex Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-19-2023 07:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  How are we not due for one? On average, we've been getting one every 5 or so years (George Mason 2006, VCU 2011, Loyola 2018) not even counting Butler, who made it back-to-back years. With parity and the lack of dominant teams compared to the past, if anything it'll happen more often.

While it's true that those three made it in the most recent 16 tournaments, it's also true, unless I am mistaken, that those are the only ones to have ever done so in the history of the tournament. So it is rare.
There have been six double-digit seeds to make the final four, but LSU 1986, Syracuse 2016, and UCLA 2022 would not be considered a mid-major. One would have to look at the distribution on #10 and #11 seeds between the P6 and other conferences.

#12 have been about as likely to reach the Sweet 16, as #10, and #11. That is likely due to the opposition. A #12 would generally face a #5 and #4, but then would go up against a #1 in the Sweet 16. 21 #12 have reached the Final Four but only 2 of the 21 have gone further.

#11 would generally face #6 and #3 and then #2. Of the 24 who have reached the Sweet 16, 9 have won to reach the Elite 8.
01-19-2023 10:48 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
(01-18-2023 11:54 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  We want big brands in the Final Four.





YOU may want big brands in the Final Four, but a lot of people who aren't heavily into betting/gambling (and they're by far the majority) love to see a Cinderella team advance that far.

A lot of people considered the 1979 Final Four to have been one of the classics:

Michigan State (Magic Johnson) - Indiana State (Larry Bird) - DePaul - Penn (Ivy)
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2023 04:32 AM by Milwaukee.)
01-20-2023 04:30 AM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Random double-digit seeded mid-major in the Final Four?
^
That said, people's desire to see unheralded teams advance wanes the longer a Tournament goes on.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2023 04:50 AM by _C2_.)
01-20-2023 04:49 AM
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