Their arch-nemesis is off to the Bears. Their secondary Enemy has gone quiet. The only thing holding the Pac back right now is...the Pac. The big 12 finalized their deal 2.5 months ago, Kliavkoff has come up with some pretty flimsy excuses...I'm starting to wonder if that "bidding war" is ever going to materialize. Every day adds just a little bit more pressure.

Here are some things that I think might be holding up negotiations:

1. Reluctance from too many schools to go with Amazon/Apple
2. Demands for unequal revenue sharing from UW and UO
3. Refusal of several schools to sign a GoR
4. Inability to reach consensus on term of media contract
5. Demand of some schools for significant exit fees
6. Grenades from the big 12
7. Yearning for the old days of the Alliance
8. ESPN and/or others won't pay what Kliavkoff wants, no other bidders materializing
9. Other

Hmmm, I think I'll make this a poll.

Please pick your top choice if you think that several apply.

At this point, there's no pressure on them to DO something. The B12 is done with their media rights deal. Those cards remain open on the table. The P12 has a lot of moving parts and it probably has factions that aren't unified on all fronts. I imagine it remains a work in progress.

Some dust still needs to settle following Warren’s departure. It’s still not clear if UW and UO will come to terms with losing the biggest proponent of B1G expansion and the source of any leverage they might have had in negotiation.

There’s no leverage for unequal revenue sharing because anybody other than OSU and WSU can just go to the BigXII if that comes to fruition.

Once all that sinks in then options can be weighed from position that is more conducive to teaching agreeable terms.

They can’t get over that they aren’t worth what they think they are. It sucks being in the late time zones when most of the country is ready for bed and you don’t have Los Angeles market anymore and sandiego market isn’t Los Angeles market.

In a way, they are feeling G5’s pain. But they will have to come to term and be happy with what they get. It appears temporary anyway. Like 6 or so years temporary. Maybe less. DEAL WITH IT! This fan of an underpaid, overachieving G5 team has ZERO ****ING sympathy for you!!

(01-18-2023 09:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  At this point, there's no pressure on them to DO something. The B12 is done with their media rights deal. Those cards remain open on the table. The P12 has a lot of moving parts and it probably has factions that aren't unified on all fronts. I imagine it remains a work in progress.

Well there is. Their contract expires in 18 months. They really need at least an agreement in principle in the next 6 months.

(01-18-2023 11:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 09:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  At this point, there's no pressure on them to DO something. The B12 is done with their media rights deal. Those cards remain open on the table. The P12 has a lot of moving parts and it probably has factions that aren't unified on all fronts. I imagine it remains a work in progress.

Well there is. Their contract expires in 18 months. They really need at least an agreement in principle in the next 6 months.

I mean, there is obviously a drop dead-line but that isn't the case right now. There was a lot made of B12 vs P12 getting their deals done first. I'm just saying that is now moot and they can negotiate without the "noise."

Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

It's looking bad... they just have to take the 25-30 with a GoR for six years and fall further behind. If there was a plan B, they'd have figured it out by now. They are lucky CU and Zona didn't already bolt.

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

Boy would we take that offer. I doubt we get the invite even though we shared a conference recently with the majority of members. Would Texas State be a more likely candidate to keep Navy happy playing in Texas?

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

Aresco would probably have to settle for UL-Monroe.

It seems like LaTech is very loyal to Judy ... I mean why else would would they still be in C-USA?

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

UNT is the already in-place replacement for SMU. Any other additions would be some other part of the country. Not sure who the American would want to add or be able to entice over.

The chances of doing a Western Expansion have dwindled, and those options are further unlikely if SMU is also out of the conference. CSU and Air Force make sense, but if they didn't move before, I don't see them moving now. Even without SDSU the MWC is more sensible home for those programs.

If they are looking for teams that are proximate to the Western Division, the AAC could look at LA Tech or USM. The Eastern Division would be a better place for call ups IMO. I would look at Marshall, Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, or Georgia State/Southern.

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I agree - I think out of any conference, the PAC would be the most likely to be fine with an Amazon and/or Apple deal.

(The west coast having so much tech business - silicon valley, etc.)

And setting aside local and/or cultural "fit" - I think, as you mention, they'd also like to get paid better, please : )

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

I'm not positive but I think most conference require June 30 if not earlier (I think one's in April).

So I agree, I think they're just hammering out details.

And I think Washington is likely waiting to see who the new B10 commissioner is, to start some talking.

all the rest likely waits on that...

(01-19-2023 11:08 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

(01-19-2023 11:18 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

UNT is the already in-place replacement for SMU. Any other additions would be some other part of the country. Not sure who the American would want to add or be able to entice over.

The chances of doing a Western Expansion have dwindled, and those options are further unlikely if SMU is also out of the conference. CSU and Air Force make sense, but if they didn't move before, I don't see them moving now. Even without SDSU the MWC is more sensible home for those programs.

If they are looking for teams that are proximate to the Western Division, the AAC could look at LA Tech or USM. The Eastern Division would be a better place for call ups IMO. I would look at Marshall, Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, or Georgia State/Southern.

Tech or the Ragin Cajuns would be the top options. Its too bad they cant take both----that annual divisional rivalry would be great fun. Those two fan bases seem to really dislike each other.