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Poll: 3-point lead - they have the ball and are in bonus +
Foul intentionally and put them on the line for 2
Absolutely don't foul - play straight up
Play aggressive D and if you foul, you foul
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To foul or not?
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holyterror Offline
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Post: #21
RE: To foul or not?
(01-16-2023 07:07 PM)Hoots Wrote:  I think different situations require different strategies. In other words, I don't believe you either always do it or always don't. It depends on a number of factors. I usually say don't foul, but in this case I was hoping they would. It just felt like the right time to do it. Hindsight, I know. But I just didn't like the feel of the situation at that time.

Yes. One factor is who you've got available to make sure you get any rebounded miss. If your top 2 rebounders have fouled out or injured, that's something to consider.
01-17-2023 11:19 AM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #22
RE: To foul or not?
When your guards are shooting 87% and 78% from the line respectively, you lean more towards fouling. Especially knowing that KD is able to get open when the ball is inbounded, 99% of the time.
01-17-2023 11:23 AM
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holyterror Offline
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Post: #23
RE: To foul or not?
(01-17-2023 11:23 AM)Stammers Wrote:  When your guards are shooting 87% and 78% from the line respectively, you lean more towards fouling. Especially knowing that KD is able to get open when the ball is inbounded, 99% of the time.

Or is able to sink a fall away jumper over a fully-extended 6-8 forward. My Lord, what a big shot that was!
01-17-2023 11:26 AM
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mairving Offline
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Post: #24
RE: To foul or not?
Temple had 17 offensive rebounds which should be a consideration in fouling. They make the first and miss the 2nd getting the rebound which can be problematic.

Kenpom Analysis

Quote: Based on my assumptions, defending has surprisingly worked out to be a slightly better strategy over the past three-plus seasons. I’ll try to explain why, but first I think it should be obvious why it might appear that fouling is better. There are 79 cases of something bad happening when a team chose to defend to just fifteen for the foulers. You don’t have to look hard to find cases of a team hitting a three in the closing seconds to force overtime. It happens almost every weekend.

I am not sure if his analysis including leaving a good shooter wide open to shoot.
01-17-2023 11:29 AM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #25
RE: To foul or not?
Just foul...
If you foul there is an entire sequence of unlikely events that has to occur for them to tie or win the game. And in that sequence of events your team has the opportunity to seal the win (rebound miss free throws, make your free throws, etc.)

If you do not foul then there is no real sequence of events but rather one play. They are almost definitely getting a shot off with a chance to tie so it only takes one lucky shot, one defensive breakdown or one stupid foul for them to tie the game.
01-17-2023 11:34 AM
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snowtiger Offline
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Post: #26
RE: To foul or not?
It’s not cut and dried like to be or not to be is.

extenuating circumstances loom large

Intuition works better than Kenpom.
01-17-2023 11:39 AM
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gusrob Offline
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Post: #27
RE: To foul or not?
(01-16-2023 07:07 PM)Hoots Wrote:  I think different situations require different strategies. In other words, I don't believe you either always do it or always don't. It depends on a number of factors. I usually say don't foul, but in this case I was hoping they would. It just felt like the right time to do it. Hindsight, I know. But I just didn't like the feel of the situation at that time.

Agree. 04-cheers
01-17-2023 12:05 PM
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BengalBurger Offline
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Post: #28
RE: To foul or not?
i agree with 6 seconds or less - then foul. not with 12 seconds left though - too much time left.
01-17-2023 12:06 PM
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gusrob Offline
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Post: #29
RE: To foul or not?
Fouling = I believe my team will shoot free throws better than or equal to the opposing team.
01-17-2023 12:07 PM
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geosnooker2000 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: To foul or not?
(01-17-2023 12:07 PM)gusrob Wrote:  Fouling = I believe my team will shoot free throws better than or equal to the opposing team.

Or, it will eat enough time off the clock they won't get another look closer than a half-court prayer. You have to consider these are not pro players. Very few can take the ball cleanly the length of the court in less than 3 seconds.
01-17-2023 04:24 PM
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Eagleonpar Offline
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Post: #31
RE: To foul or not?
I never understood why you don’t just station all 5 players around the 3 point line. 1 at the top of the key; 2 on each wing and 2 in each corner. I guess you could call it a reverse zone. Just guard that area and don’t follow any cutters to the basket. Put your longest guys out there too. Don’t worry about drives and it also takes away a lot of the screening. This of course is an under 10 second defense only.
01-17-2023 05:19 PM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #32
RE: To foul or not?
(01-17-2023 05:19 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  I never understood why you don’t just station all 5 players around the 3 point line. 1 at the top of the key; 2 on each wing and 2 in each corner. I guess you could call it a reverse zone. Just guard that area and don’t follow any cutters to the basket. Put your longest guys out there too. Don’t worry about drives and it also takes away a lot of the screening. This of course is an under 10 second defense only.

Of course you "zone" scenario is not what Penny was running. But you can guarantee he preached to everyone to not leave shooters and chase cutters through the lane. We just had two veteran players have a mental error at the worst time. Fortunately, another veteran, KD, rose up and saved the day...
01-18-2023 08:51 AM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #33
RE: To foul or not?
(01-18-2023 08:51 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-17-2023 05:19 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  I never understood why you don’t just station all 5 players around the 3 point line. 1 at the top of the key; 2 on each wing and 2 in each corner. I guess you could call it a reverse zone. Just guard that area and don’t follow any cutters to the basket. Put your longest guys out there too. Don’t worry about drives and it also takes away a lot of the screening. This of course is an under 10 second defense only.

Of course you "zone" scenario is not what Penny was running. But you can guarantee he preached to everyone to not leave shooters and chase cutters through the lane. We just had two veteran players have a mental error at the worst time. Fortunately, another veteran, KD, rose up and saved the day...

Apparently we have mental errors repeatedly on the perimeter since we seem to allow so many open perimeter shots opportunities. Thankfully several of our opponents have poor perimeter shooters just like us.
01-18-2023 09:20 AM
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Tiger1983 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: To foul or not?
I understand the reason for fouling, but detest it. Fouls spoil disrupt the flow of the game and often prevent dramatic outcomes.
01-18-2023 09:24 AM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: To foul or not?
(01-18-2023 09:24 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I understand the reason for fouling, but detest it. Fouls spoil disrupt the flow of the game and often prevent dramatic outcomes.

That's kind of the point.
01-18-2023 09:25 AM
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gusrob Offline
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Post: #36
RE: To foul or not?
(01-17-2023 05:19 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  I never understood why you don’t just station all 5 players around the 3 point line. 1 at the top of the key; 2 on each wing and 2 in each corner. I guess you could call it a reverse zone. Just guard that area and don’t follow any cutters to the basket. Put your longest guys out there too. Don’t worry about drives and it also takes away a lot of the screening. This of course is an under 10 second defense only.

I like that you're thinking. But the bottom line is that you aren't only defending the 3. Opposing team has the option for a quick 2 followed by going for steal/fouling on D. No reason to concede a quick 2 with 10+ sec remaining.

It didn't work. Nothing is full-proof. But Penny ran a viable defensive option.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2023 09:48 AM by gusrob.)
01-18-2023 09:48 AM
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Tigerx3 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: To foul or not?
Intentionally fouling in the last 2 minutes with no attempt on the ball should be 2 free throws and possession.
01-18-2023 09:49 AM
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geosnooker2000 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: To foul or not?
(01-18-2023 09:49 AM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  Intentionally fouling in the last 2 minutes with no attempt on the ball should be 2 free throws and possession.

It already is. That's not what we are talking about.
01-18-2023 09:59 AM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #39
RE: To foul or not?
(01-18-2023 09:20 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-18-2023 08:51 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-17-2023 05:19 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  I never understood why you don’t just station all 5 players around the 3 point line. 1 at the top of the key; 2 on each wing and 2 in each corner. I guess you could call it a reverse zone. Just guard that area and don’t follow any cutters to the basket. Put your longest guys out there too. Don’t worry about drives and it also takes away a lot of the screening. This of course is an under 10 second defense only.

Of course you "zone" scenario is not what Penny was running. But you can guarantee he preached to everyone to not leave shooters and chase cutters through the lane. We just had two veteran players have a mental error at the worst time. Fortunately, another veteran, KD, rose up and saved the day...

Apparently we have mental errors repeatedly on the perimeter since we seem to allow so many open perimeter shots opportunities. Thankfully several of our opponents have poor perimeter shooters just like us.

Your last sentence is a fact. Having said that, only 3 out of our 18 opponents shoot worse than we do from outside. We are ranked #320 at 30.7% One of them is Auburn, ranked #329 at 30.2%. Purdue is ranked #250. Duke is ranked #314 at 31.1%.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2023 08:02 PM by Stammers.)
01-18-2023 11:45 AM
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steves Offline
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Post: #40
RE: To foul or not?
How much time, how many fouls on key players, time outs left, whose doing the fouling ... Too many ways to screw it up. I'll go straight up ... No wait ...
01-18-2023 07:50 PM
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