(01-15-2023 01:56 PM)Acres Wrote:  Can absolutely see this as a real possibility. Kliakov wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t try the hardest to grab TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Tech to play in the central time zone. SMU would be the last resort in my opinion.

I think big12 schools would consider if all current pac10 schools sign a GOR. The revenue would need to increase to at least $40 million , tv only, per school.

The big12 schools haven’t signed extended GOR. Regarding the exit fees, that could be negotiated down to 50 million per Dodd and would be doable since it would mean 6 schools leaving including Oklahoma and Texas.

Ultimately, my guess is if the big12 can’t poach pac10 schools, the pac will raid it.

Where did you read that? I haven't seen/heard any discussion of that at all. What I have read is a lot of "big 12 signs new media rights deal" on or about Oct 30, 2022.

I agree on Kliavkoff, he should be working his tail off to recruit big 12 schools, or to get them to reopen merger discussions. But $50m, $80m...why would any big 12 school pay money to go make even less and play in a conference that's mostly 1500 miles away, far away from recruiting grounds and in areas with significantly less football enthusiasm? I'm not as down on the Pac long term as many others, I do think that they're much more likely to stay together now that Warren is gone and the B1G Presidents can't reach consensus, but their next chance to go back to "hunter" instead of "prey" will come in the 2030's, not today.

Let me spell it out for you and wrap it up in a tight little bow: N-O! No!

Why, you may ask? What can the PAC offer them that the Big XII can't? Some iPads?

I predict they both raid the mwc for a total of 4 to 6 schools.

(01-15-2023 02:04 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 01:56 PM)Acres Wrote:  Can absolutely see this as a real possibility. Kliakov wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t try the hardest to grab TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Tech to play in the central time zone. SMU would be the last resort in my opinion.

I think big12 schools would consider if all current pac10 schools sign a GOR. The revenue would need to increase to at least $40 million , tv only, per school.

The big12 schools haven’t signed extended GOR. Regarding the exit fees, that could be negotiated down to 50 million per Dodd and would be doable since it would mean 6 schools leaving including Oklahoma and Texas.

Ultimately, my guess is if the big12 can’t poach pac10 schools, the pac will raid it.

Where did you read that? I haven't seen/heard any discussion of that at all. What I have read is a lot of "big 12 signs new media rights deal" on or about Oct 30, 2022.

I agree on Kliavkoff, he should be working his tail off to recruit big 12 schools, or to get them to reopen merger discussions. But $50m, $80m...why would any big 12 school pay money to go make even less and play in a conference that's mostly 1500 miles away, far away from recruiting grounds and in areas with significantly less football enthusiasm? I'm not as down on the Pac long term as many others, I do think that they're much more likely to stay together now that Warren is gone and the B1G Presidents can't reach consensus, but their next chance to go back to "hunter" instead of "prey" will come in the 2030's, not today.

True the media rights extension has been reported in the media. The conference hasn’t announced it.

Regarding travel, it’s not a concern , TCU would be playing 3 schools that are close ( Tech, Okie State, Tech) , and three four corner schools . Add two in state out of conference . That’s one or two long distance hauls , pretty much equal to now if you consider WV and Cinci.

Again as stated above it , would only work if pac12 secures a deal 10 million higher than the big12 with this arrangement. The combined revenue would need be closer to 55-60 million per school. Heavily lift for Kliakov for sure.

(01-15-2023 12:04 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...when the Texahoma 4 deal fell thru, that probably killed any PAC poaching of the BIG XII... looks like SMU would be the best bet, although if I were an SMU fan, not sure if I would want to be on that island and not have regional games.

Aresco grabbed all of the C-USA Texas teams in the Central Time Zone to appease SMU, and of course to prevent the MWC from entering Texas...

Of course, it would be a BIG spike financially for the 'Stangs, so I figure they would jump...

Not all. We know Texas State and UTEP are still in FBS, and we have Tarleton State, SFAU, Sam Houston State, Lamar, Abilene Christian and UTRGV going or wants to go FBS.

Imagine where Lamar be today if the WAC invited them to join the conference with UTA, UTSA and Texas State?

(01-15-2023 12:26 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 12:02 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 11:49 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The invitations would be declined.

I mean, what an offer: "We are offering you less money for worse travel and less exposure in the areas you are most concerned with!!!"

My thought is that adding them should improve the money situation.

In a substantial way? There's not yet any indication that the PAC-10 is on level pegging with the new Big12 media deal, so part of any increase would have to go to catching up with the Big12, and another part to pulling far enough ahead to make it appealing to move when, everything else equal, they would prefer the Big12.

Quote: If SMU is considered a good option for the PAC, then surely these 2 are.

It seems more plausible that SMU is a feasible option.

I mean, if the premise is "without considering whether the schools would be interested in joining", then the PAC-10 would take USC and UCLA or Texas and Oklahoma ... or all four.

(01-15-2023 12:50 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  No one is leaving the Big 12 except for a Big 10 or SEC invite.

IDK, I could see Cincinnati, WVU, or UCF taking an ACC invitation at some point.

(01-15-2023 12:32 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Why would TCU and Tech do this--- you think they would rather associate with Oregon State and Washington State than schools in Texas or Oklahoma? To play primarily on Apple TV?

I'm at a disadvantage in this conversation, as I don't know how Apple TV works. Can I watch it on my TV, or only on another device like a computer or phone? If I want to watch it, is it free or would I have to pay something for it? If I buy Apple TV can I still watch everything I now can watch on cable without having to pay extra?

I guess if I had to pay something for Apple TV, or if I couldn't watch it on my TV, I just wouldn't watch the PAC and any Big 12 teams they add. That's not that big a loss to me, so I guess I don't have a dog in the fight. But if there are any TCU fans or Tech fans who stop watching their teams play doesn't that reduce their value to Amazon?

(01-15-2023 12:02 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 11:49 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The invitations would be declined.

I mean, what an offer: "We are offering you less money for worse travel and less exposure in the areas you are most concerned with!!!"

..."and you each have to pay the Big XII $80M to accept this offer!"

(01-15-2023 02:53 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 12:04 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...when the Texahoma 4 deal fell thru, that probably killed any PAC poaching of the BIG XII... looks like SMU would be the best bet, although if I were an SMU fan, not sure if I would want to be on that island and not have regional games.

Aresco grabbed all of the C-USA Texas teams in the Central Time Zone to appease SMU, and of course to prevent the MWC from entering Texas...

Of course, it would be a BIG spike financially for the 'Stangs, so I figure they would jump...

Not all. We know Texas State and UTEP are still in FBS, and we have Tarleton State, SFAU, Sam Houston State, Lamar, Abilene Christian and UTRGV going or wants to go FBS.

Imagine where Lamar be today if the WAC invited them to join the conference with UTA, UTSA and Texas State?

...it will be interesting how some of these 'advance' over the next decade... I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more of these end up in C-USA over the next few seasons (I think Tarleton and SFA are the supposed 'next ups' whenever C-USA comes calling...)

(01-15-2023 07:15 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 12:50 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  No one is leaving the Big 12 except for a Big 10 or SEC invite.

IDK, I could see Cincinnati, WVU, or UCF taking an ACC invitation at some point.

However, with the Big XII very stable now and with a massive exit fee, this site's Crystal Ball of Experience (CBE) says much more likely is, unfortunately {from the nostalgic point of view}:

Continued raids of the PAC and ACC by the SEC and B1G.

ACC, announced in only ~9 years from now, at its latest, to lose its most valuable programs at the end of their current GoR. Maybe UNC, Clemson, FSU, UVa, GTech, +???

The remaining next tier of ACC programs, if not all (via a "merger"?) join the Big XII as its new East or Atlantic Division, with UC,WVU, and UCF in that division too.

And the remaining PAC second-tier, if not all, joining the Big XII as its West or Pacific Division, with BYU, + maybe ??? (SDSU, UNLV, ...).

At that point, the Big XII Central Division may need more teams, and SMU, Tulane, ... may get the call-up. If a Mountain Division is formed too, then more call-ups from the MW, e.g., UNM, WY, CSU, ...

And, now I'm suggesting such, that:

The Big XXX () then plays round-robin in each division, and the division champs then play for the conference championship. Am I remembering correctly that the rules already allow for semifinal FB champ games if the conference is big enough?

(01-15-2023 08:05 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 12:32 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Why would TCU and Tech do this--- you think they would rather associate with Oregon State and Washington State than schools in Texas or Oklahoma? To play primarily on Apple TV?

I'm at a disadvantage in this conversation, as I don't know how Apple TV works. Can I watch it on my TV, or only on another device like a computer or phone? If I want to watch it, is it free or would I have to pay something for it? If I buy Apple TV can I still watch everything I now can watch on cable without having to pay extra?

I guess if I had to pay something for Apple TV, or if I couldn't watch it on my TV, I just wouldn't watch the PAC and any Big 12 teams they add. That's not that big a loss to me, so I guess I don't have a dog in the fight. But if there are any TCU fans or Tech fans who stop watching their teams play doesn't that reduce their value to Amazon?

If most of your content is not on ESPN on FOX you are invisible. As for the streaming services, the only people who will be watching that are the individual fans of the schools playing.

Also, yes there is not much of a difference between flipping a linear channel from a Hogan's Hero's re-run to ESPN v. firing up the streaming service, but subconsciously there is a difference.

P.S. I said Apple in my OP I meant Amazon.

(01-15-2023 02:50 PM)Acres Wrote:  ... Again as stated above it , would only work if pac12 secures a deal 10 million higher than the big12 with this arrangement. The combined revenue would need be closer to 55-60 million per school. ...

This is a longer winded way of saying it is highly unlikely to work. Adding two schools, neither of which are likely to have a free standing media value of $55m-$60m, to a conference of schools that are on average below a free standing media value of $55m-$60m, to arrive at an average media value of $55m-$60m, requires a whole lot of synergies to make it work -- and there just is not a lot of synergy between TCU & Texas Tech on the one hand and most of the PAC schools on the other.

(01-15-2023 08:05 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 12:32 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Why would TCU and Tech do this--- you think they would rather associate with Oregon State and Washington State than schools in Texas or Oklahoma? To play primarily on Apple TV?

I'm at a disadvantage in this conversation, as I don't know how Apple TV works. Can I watch it on my TV, or only on another device like a computer or phone? If I want to watch it, is it free or would I have to pay something for it? If I buy Apple TV can I still watch everything I now can watch on cable without having to pay extra?

I guess if I had to pay something for Apple TV, or if I couldn't watch it on my TV, I just wouldn't watch the PAC and any Big 12 teams they add. That's not that big a loss to me, so I guess I don't have a dog in the fight. But if there are any TCU fans or Tech fans who stop watching their teams play doesn't that reduce their value to Amazon?

It’s a box that serves as a hub for streaming cable and apps. It sort of replaces a cable box if your cable company offers an app to stream their cable TV packages.

Amazon’s version is a Firestick and no it would not be hard to find Pac games because I’m sure they’d be promoted as soon as you turn on the TV in that situation. In the case of Apple TV, you’d access the Pac games through an Amazon app.

Apps are basically becoming premium “channels” with live and archived content available. I believe big time schools will develop their own apps (especially for football) and conference collective bargaining will be left to the small schools.

People can fight it, but this is the way everything is going. Cable providers are going to phase out hook ‘em up cable and go streaming eventually. Why? It’s cheaper for them.

(01-15-2023 03:47 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Before the new media deal goes further than "intent" - what if the PAC invited Texas Tech and TCU?

And what if wishes were fishes??? There would be no room for water in the sea.

(01-16-2023 11:06 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 03:47 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Before the new media deal goes further than "intent" - what if the PAC invited Texas Tech and TCU?

And what if wishes were fishes??? There would be no room for water in the sea.

If wishes were fishes, we all could eat : )

The PAC-12 made a colossal mistake not going after Big XII West schools like TCU, Texas Tech, OK State, Kansas, K-State, and/or Baylor when TX/OU went to the SEC and the XII was down to 8.

They might have been able to dissolve the Big XII with no exit fees or at least strike a mortal blow where it was no longer P-5.

From a supply/demand standpoint, the same amount of TV dollars would be chasing 4 conferences instead of 5, meaning more money for all 4 of them.

Instead, the piss poor PAC-12 leadership rolled over for USC, a school that was going to leave anyway.

(01-15-2023 02:38 PM)JSUCleburneslim Wrote:  I predict they both raid the mwc for a total of 4 to 6 schools.

What 4 - 6 schools in the MWC are worth grabbing? SDSU, Boise, AF (who are not interested)... who else?

(01-16-2023 12:37 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 02:38 PM)JSUCleburneslim Wrote:  I predict they both raid the mwc for a total of 4 to 6 schools.

What 4 - 6 schools in the MWC are worth grabbing? SDSU, Boise, AF (who are not interested)... who else?

Colorado State, Utah State (probably), Fresno State (definitely would jump at the chance), Wyoming (why not? they'd have to expand their football stadium, though)...

(01-16-2023 12:31 PM)WAChsenburggemeinde Wrote:  The PAC-12 made a colossal mistake not going after Big XII West schools like TCU, Texas Tech, OK State, Kansas, K-State, and/or Baylor when TX/OU went to the SEC and the XII was down to 8.

They might have been able to dissolve the Big XII with no exit fees or at least strike a mortal blow where it was no longer P-5.

From a supply/demand standpoint, the same amount of TV dollars would be chasing 4 conferences instead of 5, meaning more money for all 4 of them.

Instead, the piss poor PAC-12 leadership rolled over for USC, a school that was going to leave anyway.

Yes