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Bracketology 1/13
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 04:03 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 03:24 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 03:05 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:21 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  True, but I still don’t think we should lose to the likes of UGA, ECU, Tulane and Seton Hall. SLU and UCF are decent. I’m sure I could go back further than last season to find more rat teams we’ve lost to on the road. It’s definitely a trend.

Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.


All I’m saying is, I get where the other poster is coming from. We really have no clue who we might lose to on the road. Regardless of how hard it is to play on the road, if you lose to enough bad teams, you’re gonna find yourself on the outside looking in. Anyways, I hope we can flip a switch and go on a run.

FWIW I doubt the committee looks at our conference and thinks anyone is really that great outside of Houston. We would be next on the list, but the 2nd best team has to prove it.

Based on what? What is the criteria?


Expectations? Program prestige? Wanting the 2nd team to be someone other than a team like UCF that no one cares about?

I don't understand. We are a two bid league. What does does program prestige have to do with anything?
01-13-2023 04:32 PM
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cscottl1981 Offline
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Post: #22
Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 04:32 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 04:03 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 03:24 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 03:05 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.


All I’m saying is, I get where the other poster is coming from. We really have no clue who we might lose to on the road. Regardless of how hard it is to play on the road, if you lose to enough bad teams, you’re gonna find yourself on the outside looking in. Anyways, I hope we can flip a switch and go on a run.

FWIW I doubt the committee looks at our conference and thinks anyone is really that great outside of Houston. We would be next on the list, but the 2nd best team has to prove it.

Based on what? What is the criteria?


Expectations? Program prestige? Wanting the 2nd team to be someone other than a team like UCF that no one cares about?

I don't understand. We are a two bid league. What does does program prestige have to do with anything?


I’m just saying a bracketologist could throw our name out there based on whatever they please. They think our resume is good enough at this point and then they flip a coin. Who knows? And I would say who cares, but clearly some do. I agree on 2 bids for the league. That’s why I said we’ll have to prove it. The assumption is Houston will win the conference regular season and tournament. That may not come to fruition, but in all likelihood it will. We haven’t done enough yet to distinguish ourselves and prove that we’re the 2nd best team. I assume that’s why people are fretting?
01-13-2023 06:33 PM
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Tigerspartan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Bracketology 1/13
I understand some peoples frustration with the bracketology talk.

But they just don’t understand the situation. We are in a pretty unique spot, the American i think is underrated. But it’s a 2 bid league. Just is what it is. In the context of bracketology, it is a huge deal where we are from a national perspective. You might think that joe lunardi doesn’t know crap, but everyone reads it. The selection commitee sees it. AP writers see it. It influences the National narrative. And if we are perceived as third in the conference, we will be third in the conference and in the NIT.

We have some opportunities left. A lot can happen. But we have to be a clear number 2. Right now we are a clear number 3 and headed in the wrong direction.

Still, UCF has one thing we don’t. A quad 4 loss. That keeps their resume within our striking distance. It’s not over yet but we have dug ourselves a hole.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2023 07:11 PM by Tigerspartan.)
01-13-2023 06:56 PM
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ncrdbl1 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:21 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  True, but I still don’t think we should lose to the likes of UGA, ECU, Tulane and Seton Hall. SLU and UCF are decent. I’m sure I could go back further than last season to find more rat teams we’ve lost to on the road. It’s definitely a trend.

Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.

SH is just 10-8 and has won last 2 to get to that point.

They're 6th in the 11 team Big East with a 3-4 conference record.

StL is currently tied for second in A-10 but is 11-6 overall.

We started as last byes which means we were next four above last four in.

Made some progress then dropped below where we started.

Right now we'll need our annual late season run to qualify for an at large bid.

May not happen this year if Malco and A-Lo are out for significant periods of time.
01-13-2023 07:46 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 07:46 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.

SH is just 10-8 and has won last 2 to get to that point.

They're 6th in the 11 team Big East with a 3-4 conference record.

StL is currently tied for second in A-10 but is 11-6 overall.

Never said Seton Hall was great, I said they were decent. They're 69 in the NET and 54 in Kenpom compared to 96 in the NET and 81 in Kenpom for St. Louis. So what were you saying about those two teams again?
01-13-2023 07:54 PM
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ncrdbl1 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 07:54 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 07:46 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.

SH is just 10-8 and has won last 2 to get to that point.

They're 6th in the 11 team Big East with a 3-4 conference record.

StL is currently tied for second in A-10 but is 11-6 overall.

Never said Seton Hall was great, I said they were decent. They're 69 in the NET and 54 in Kenpom compared to 96 in the NET and 81 in Kenpom for St. Louis. So what were you saying about those two teams again?

Those number make both teams non tournament teams. Not NCAA for certain and bubble NIT teams.
01-13-2023 08:01 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 08:01 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 07:54 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 07:46 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(01-13-2023 02:34 PM)msu35 Wrote:  Add Seton Hall to your "decent" list, and Tulane is moving up at 4-1 in the conference and 11-5 overall. The UGA loss last year wasn't great, but the team shifted gears and finished out the season strong. I suspect we'll beat ECU on the road this year.

To reiterate, you want to know a trend? It's tougher for all teams to win on the road, that's why road losses don't hurt a team in analytics like a home loss. Something to consider.

SH is just 10-8 and has won last 2 to get to that point.

They're 6th in the 11 team Big East with a 3-4 conference record.

StL is currently tied for second in A-10 but is 11-6 overall.

Never said Seton Hall was great, I said they were decent. They're 69 in the NET and 54 in Kenpom compared to 96 in the NET and 81 in Kenpom for St. Louis. So what were you saying about those two teams again?

Those number make both teams non tournament teams. Not NCAA for certain and bubble NIT teams.

Okay, but I'm not sure how that's relevant or a counterpoint to what cscottl1981 and I were discussing when you quoted my post. We weren't talking about them being tournament teams, just that they were decent losses which means they were Q2 losses at worst. Tulane was also a Q2 loss. Not ideal, but certainly not the end of the world for the Tigers and of course the loss at UCF was decidedly Q1 - a "good" loss.

The way you highlighted how Seton Hall seemingly has been performing worse than St. Louis makes it come across as if you didn't believe Seton Hall belonged in the list of "decent" losses per the original discussion. Going into detail about how they required the last two games to have a winning record and their ranking in the conference was telling. The reality is that they're the better team, compared to St. Louis, when looking at the analytics; but that's moot. They both qualify as Q2 losses for us, so roughly equal.
01-13-2023 08:15 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-13-2023 06:56 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  I understand some peoples frustration with the bracketology talk.

But they just don’t understand the situation. We are in a pretty unique spot, the American i think is underrated. But it’s a 2 bid league. Just is what it is. In the context of bracketology, it is a huge deal where we are from a national perspective. You might think that joe lunardi doesn’t know crap, but everyone reads it. The selection commitee sees it. AP writers see it. It influences the National narrative. And if we are perceived as third in the conference, we will be third in the conference and in the NIT.

We have some opportunities left. A lot can happen. But we have to be a clear number 2. Right now we are a clear number 3 and headed in the wrong direction.

Still, UCF has one thing we don’t. A quad 4 loss. That keeps their resume within our striking distance. It’s not over yet but we have dug ourselves a hole.

Not over yet? It has barely started. Beat UCF at home, tie game.
01-14-2023 01:26 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Bracketology 1/13
The AAC has historically averaged 2.7 teams per NCAA tournament. The last 2 years, we've only had 2 teams in. We're due a 3-team year. I think this may be the year.

Don't write the conference off as a 2-bid league quite yet. Although certainly this talk is preferable to the 1-bid nonsense some of you say at this time every other year.
01-14-2023 10:20 AM
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fsquid Offline
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RE: Bracketology 1/13
We can't shoot so dropping a few and also beating Houston wouldn't surprise me.
01-14-2023 03:00 PM
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Unionman76 Online
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Post: #31
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 03:00 PM)fsquid Wrote:  We can't shoot so dropping a few and also beating Houston wouldn't surprise me.

we lead our conference in field goal percentage (47.3%)
01-14-2023 04:13 PM
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Eagleonpar Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 04:13 PM)Unionman76 Wrote:  
(01-14-2023 03:00 PM)fsquid Wrote:  We can't shoot so dropping a few and also beating Houston wouldn't surprise me.

we lead our conference in field goal percentage (47.3%)

Offense is NOT our problem
01-14-2023 05:03 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 10:20 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The AAC has historically averaged 2.7 teams per NCAA tournament. The last 2 years, we've only had 2 teams in. We're due a 3-team year. I think this may be the year.

Don't write the conference off as a 2-bid league quite yet. Although certainly this talk is preferable to the 1-bid nonsense some of you say at this time every other year.

And that's what some are saying now, it's crazy. IF both us and UCF are in the 40's in the NET, we will both probably make it. Btw, Vandy beating Arkansas should give us a little bump.
01-14-2023 05:08 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Bracketology 1/13
It's the same thing every year. As soon as the team makes a few mistakes, the vermin are emboldened to come out of the shadows.
01-14-2023 05:14 PM
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AtlTigerfan Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Bracketology 1/13
I see everyone beating up on each other in conference again this year. Tulane beat UCF today and then Houston comes to NO on Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the Cougars. They seem to be pretty good. At one point of the game they were beating UCF by 20.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2023 09:45 PM by AtlTigerfan.)
01-14-2023 09:44 PM
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Cletus Offline
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RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 05:14 PM)msu35 Wrote:  It's the same thing every year. As soon as the team makes a few mistakes, the vermin are emboldened to come out of the shadows.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmyprecisepen.com%2Fwp-c...ipo=images]
01-14-2023 10:04 PM
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Tigerspartan Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 09:44 PM)AtlTigerfan Wrote:  I see everyone beating up on each other in conference again this year. Tulane beat UCF today and then Houston comes to NO on Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the Cougars. They seem to be pretty good. At one point of the game they were beating UCF by 20.

Houston at Tulane should be fun to watch. The American is underrated pretty strong top half.
01-15-2023 08:13 AM
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tnzazz Offline
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Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 05:14 PM)msu35 Wrote:  It's the same thing every year. As soon as the team makes a few mistakes, the vermin are emboldened to come out of the shadows.


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01-15-2023 09:01 AM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Bracketology 1/13
To summarize our position according to Group B in my post from the other day...

Most of the $EC sucked and our wins against them were meaningless. Vandy sucks so bad and they are going to finish last in the $EC.
25 Auburn
57 TAM
92 Vandy
113 Ole Piss

Nebraska sucks, why did we even play them?
97 Nebraska

Tulane is an embarassment, they are #161 in the NET. We are out of the tournament...
94 Tulane

We are on the outside looking in. We lost a must win game and there is no way we can catch up...
43 UCF
50 Memphis

We lost a game at the beginning of January, we are out of the tournament, we suck, we choke, Penny is a **** coach, we will be in the NIT again (too stupid to remember that we won a game in the actual tournament last year), I'm not watching them anymore, they suck, blah, blah, blah.
(This post was last modified: 01-15-2023 12:55 PM by Stammers.)
01-15-2023 12:55 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Bracketology 1/13
(01-14-2023 10:04 PM)Cletus Wrote:  
(01-14-2023 05:14 PM)msu35 Wrote:  It's the same thing every year. As soon as the team makes a few mistakes, the vermin are emboldened to come out of the shadows.

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01-16-2023 11:22 AM
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