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The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
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Unionman76 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
Could today set a record for top 25 teams losing ?
01-14-2023 09:07 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-14-2023 08:42 PM)Alcalde2 Wrote:  
(01-14-2023 08:38 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-14-2023 08:35 PM)Alcalde2 Wrote:  Losing to Wofford was perhaps the punch in the mouth Texas A&M needed. They seemed to turn the corner, now winners of 6 in a row including beating ranked Missouri, LSU and on the road at Florida. They were up 40 at South Carolina just minutes ago. Looking like thats becoming more and more of the quality win we hoped for.

Also Vanderbilt just upset Arkansas and is above .500.

All of this goes to show why it's too early in the season to gnash teeth, crying that the sky is falling.

I agree 100%. Ive said on here that if we had beaten UCF, alot of the lower IQ posters on the board would be talking 5/6 seed and darkhorse dreams. 4 points separates in their minds a seed high enough to avoid a 1 or 2 early, and never making another NCAA tourney again. Thats the expected result of the emotions of passionate but unintelligent sports fans

We have a dozen or so psycho fans.
01-14-2023 11:55 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #23
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.
01-15-2023 01:04 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.
01-15-2023 01:07 PM
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Stammers Offline
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RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

The other "funny" thing is how we have posters trying to downgrade our $EC schedule saying that the teams aren't very good. Not only were Auburn, TAM and Vandy very good wins; our 3 point loss at Alabama gave us a very good bump. The calculations show that as the equivalent of a win on a neutral floor.
01-15-2023 01:13 PM
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AtlTigerfan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I know its early, but I'm pulling for everyone we've played already. It only helps if they win. I can't pull for UCF.
(This post was last modified: 01-15-2023 02:15 PM by AtlTigerfan.)
01-15-2023 01:14 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #27
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.
01-15-2023 01:32 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #28
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:14 PM)AtlTigerfan Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I know its early, but I'm pulling for everyone we've played already. It only helps if they win. Except maybe UCF.

Vandy had a great win yesterday, and if Texas A&M continues their streak, they could end up being a Quad1 home win for us as well.
01-15-2023 01:35 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

Ah, okay. It wasn't apparent that you understood with your initial post. I agree, there is a "hidden" formula, and the NCAA isn't going out of their way to enlighten the masses. It could be as simple as a static "fudge factor" modifier they apply to each team based on their opinion, for all we know. Frankly, based on what I've seen from the NCAA over the past decades, objective and fair are not terms that come to mind. Likely not possible to reverse engineer their "calculations."
01-15-2023 01:38 PM
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Eagleonpar Offline
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Post: #30
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:13 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

The other "funny" thing is how we have posters trying to downgrade our $EC schedule saying that the teams aren't very good. Not only were Auburn, TAM and Vandy very good wins; our 3 point loss at Alabama gave us a very good bump. The calculations show that as the equivalent of a win on a neutral floor.

It’s not just the fans. The fans keep hearing from the media that we only have one quad one win. I know A&M is good. I went to that game. And we got hosed by the refs and still won. At this point every loss we have is in the top 100
01-15-2023 02:08 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

And what will happen with the Big Ten is that you will have very mediocre teams with records slightly above or below .500 being a Quad 1 road win. If I had to guess, I would say that there is a component that rewards the volume of games, which of course is slanted against non P5 teams. As an example, I am betting that 3-6 is better than 1-2 for Quad 1 calculations; when really, it shouldn't be. Not only should it not be different from a mathematical standpoint, but as we've seen from our schedule historically, you have much more pressure on you when you have 4 Quad 1 opportunities over the course of a season, compared to a Big 12 school that might have 12.

We do know 100% that the talking heads and the committee are only going to only talk about the number of Quad 1 wins and will ignore the percentages when it comes to seeding.

Horrible.
01-15-2023 02:52 PM
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Fluke Offline
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Post: #32
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

The weird part is kenpom which in general seems to be the best overall to me has Ohio state even higher at 16.
01-15-2023 02:58 PM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 02:58 PM)Fluke Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

The weird part is kenpom which in general seems to be the best overall to me has Ohio state even higher at 16.

The only thing that makes sense is margin of victory being weighted very heavily.
01-15-2023 03:04 PM
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Eagleonpar Offline
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Post: #34
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
Improved to 46 after a road win over Temple which moved up 1 spot from 153 to 152
01-16-2023 11:06 AM
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memphis mania Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 02:52 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

And what will happen with the Big Ten is that you will have very mediocre teams with records slightly above or below .500 being a Quad 1 road win. If I had to guess, I would say that there is a component that rewards the volume of games, which of course is slanted against non P5 teams. As an example, I am betting that 3-6 is better than 1-2 for Quad 1 calculations; when really, it shouldn't be. Not only should it not be different from a mathematical standpoint, but as we've seen from our schedule historically, you have much more pressure on you when you have 4 Quad 1 opportunities over the course of a season, compared to a Big 12 school that might have 12.

We do know 100% that the talking heads and the committee are only going to only talk about the number of Quad 1 wins and will ignore the percentages when it comes to seeding.

Horrible.

Wow. I didn't notice Ohio State's NET at 21. That is criminal. I think we honestly should be mid 30's and Ohio State should be more like 50ish. They really need to recalibrate their algorithm
(This post was last modified: 01-16-2023 12:44 PM by memphis mania.)
01-16-2023 11:31 AM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other
01-16-2023 11:55 AM
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msu35 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-16-2023 11:55 AM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other

I'm going to be a dissenting voice and throw a spanner in the works. Take a look at the margin of victory. It has to play a significant role in the calculations. This year, we've been unable to "blow" teams out to the degree the aforementioned teams have, and our rating has suffered.
01-16-2023 12:30 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-16-2023 12:30 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-16-2023 11:55 AM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other

I'm going to be a dissenting voice and throw a spanner in the works. Take a look at the margin of victory. It has to play a significant role in the calculations. This year, we've been unable to "blow" teams out to the degree the aforementioned teams have, and our rating has suffered.

But don't they claim the margin of victory is capped at 10 or 15 points, to prevent intentional blowouts?
01-16-2023 12:46 PM
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memphis mania Offline
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Post: #39
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-16-2023 12:46 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-16-2023 12:30 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-16-2023 11:55 AM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other

I'm going to be a dissenting voice and throw a spanner in the works. Take a look at the margin of victory. It has to play a significant role in the calculations. This year, we've been unable to "blow" teams out to the degree the aforementioned teams have, and our rating has suffered.

But don't they claim the margin of victory is capped at 10 or 15 points, to prevent intentional blowouts?

I believe its 10
01-16-2023 12:49 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: The NET rankings are very hard on the Tigers this year...
(01-16-2023 11:55 AM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  
(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other

That would be a definite way to cook the books for more P5-type programs in the NCAA. They always get more opportunities for Q1 games.
01-16-2023 12:50 PM
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