(01-09-2023 07:16 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  I think to get to the 30-35M they want they have to expand as they have been told that at 10 they are worth 20-24M per school without USC/UCLA.

I don't believe the PAC has been told that they are worth 20-24M per school.

Even if they were, there is NO addition that would bring in enough to raise that by 10M per team.

(01-09-2023 02:21 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 05:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I agree that SDSU and SMU make the most sense, and both get the invite the day after the new deal is signed (coming in at ~ 1/2 shares for the new deal). Gonzaga has many reasons to prefer the Pac over the big 12, and the Pac is more anxious for good news now than the big 12, meaning they'll likely offer Gonzaga a better deal than the big 12 would. Add it all together, and you still get a big dropoff from USCLA, but perhaps not as crushing of a blow as we might have thought a few months ago.

I think this is plausible.

The 50% shares for the duration of the new deal makes sense and it would give a raise to the current PAC schools and give a bump for SMU/SDSU. I do wonder what happens at the end of the deal? SMU/SDSU won't accept being half a member in future deals.

They are not likely to get only 50% shares for the entire length of the deal. I don't think that has ever happened. There are often graduated payments or buy-ins, but they result in the new member eventually achieving a full share.

(01-09-2023 02:32 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:21 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 05:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I agree that SDSU and SMU make the most sense, and both get the invite the day after the new deal is signed (coming in at ~ 1/2 shares for the new deal). Gonzaga has many reasons to prefer the Pac over the big 12, and the Pac is more anxious for good news now than the big 12, meaning they'll likely offer Gonzaga a better deal than the big 12 would. Add it all together, and you still get a big dropoff from USCLA, but perhaps not as crushing of a blow as we might have thought a few months ago.

I think this is plausible.

The 50% shares for the duration of the new deal makes sense and it would give a raise to the current PAC schools and give a bump for SMU/SDSU. I do wonder what happens at the end of the deal? SMU/SDSU won't accept being half a member in future deals.

They are not likely to get only 50% shares for the entire length of the deal. I don't think that has ever happened. There are often graduated payments or buy-ins, but they result in the new member eventually achieving a full share.

I don't think the PAC will expand anyway. But if the PAC does expand, there's a pretty good chance that the conference would completely collapse before the new members make it to the full share period.

(01-09-2023 02:35 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:32 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:21 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 05:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I agree that SDSU and SMU make the most sense, and both get the invite the day after the new deal is signed (coming in at ~ 1/2 shares for the new deal). Gonzaga has many reasons to prefer the Pac over the big 12, and the Pac is more anxious for good news now than the big 12, meaning they'll likely offer Gonzaga a better deal than the big 12 would. Add it all together, and you still get a big dropoff from USCLA, but perhaps not as crushing of a blow as we might have thought a few months ago.

I think this is plausible.

The 50% shares for the duration of the new deal makes sense and it would give a raise to the current PAC schools and give a bump for SMU/SDSU. I do wonder what happens at the end of the deal? SMU/SDSU won't accept being half a member in future deals.

They are not likely to get only 50% shares for the entire length of the deal. I don't think that has ever happened. There are often graduated payments or buy-ins, but they result in the new member eventually achieving a full share.

I don't think the PAC will expand anyway. But if the PAC does expand, there's a pretty good chance that the conference would completely collapse before the new members make it to the full share period.

The PAC will expand by 2 to 4 schools or will be gone within 36 months.

(01-09-2023 02:06 PM)YNot Wrote:  All in. PAC 20. Destroy the Big 12 or bust. 9 of the future 12 to dissolve the Big 12.

Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, BYU, plus SDSU.


Or, complete merger with the Big 12. Add SDSU to the west side and Memphis, USF, or Tulane to the east side of the behemoth with four 6-team scheduling divisions:

WEST: Washington, Wazzu, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford
MOUNTAIN: SDSU, Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor
EAST: TCU, Houston, UCF, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Memphis/Tulane/USF

I'd say just add 9 from the XII (everyone except Central Florida, Cincinnati, and West Virginia) plus SDSU. Maybe the ACC picks them up with a couple others.

PAC
Central: BYU, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St
Northwest: Oregon, Oregon St, Utah, Washington, Washington St
Pacific: Arizona, Arizona St, California, San Diego St, Stanford
Southwest: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
> Pods are more or less regional.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, South Florida, Virginia
Eastern: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Tulane
> Every pod has a Florida school.
> Pods are more or less historical.

(01-09-2023 02:43 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:06 PM)YNot Wrote:  All in. PAC 20. Destroy the Big 12 or bust. 9 of the future 12 to dissolve the Big 12.

Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, BYU, plus SDSU.


Or, complete merger with the Big 12. Add SDSU to the west side and Memphis, USF, or Tulane to the east side of the behemoth with four 6-team scheduling divisions:

WEST: Washington, Wazzu, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford
MOUNTAIN: SDSU, Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor
EAST: TCU, Houston, UCF, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Memphis/Tulane/USF

I'd say just add 9 from the XII (everyone except Central Florida, Cincinnati, and West Virginia) plus SDSU. Maybe the ACC picks them up with a couple others.

PAC
Central: BYU, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St
Northwest: Oregon, Oregon St, Utah, Washington, Washington St
Pacific: Arizona, Arizona St, California, San Diego St, Stanford
Southwest: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
> Pods are more or less regional.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, South Florida, Virginia
Eastern: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Tulane
> Every pod has a Florida school.
> Pods are more or less historical.

PAC has no chance of getting 8 of those schools.

Another realistic scenario is that the PAC 10 stays at 10 and schedules a few conference games each year in Los Angeles and Texas. Some of the Texas games kickoff at 12pm ET. Balance the 9-game schedule with 4 home, 4 road, and 1 neutral-site game for every team in the conference: 2 in Texas, 3 in Los Angeles.

Stand pat. Have in this scenario where more eyeballs care about Fresno/Boise than SanDiego/SMU.

I don’t care what the DMAs are, hardly anyone in San Diego cares about football compared to Fresno and Boise.

But then academics question blows and that away as well, so….stands pat!

(01-09-2023 09:50 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 12:00 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 07:08 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think the most likely scenario is the PAC offers Tulane and offers Houston the support for AAU membership to join them. Tulane is AAU already.

I actually laughed when I read this. I mean, I get it though, why bother with a SoCal school when you can go to New Orleans for a program with very little support and no history of success. And UH is already out of the Pac's reach, they've been trying to get into the big 12 for 25 years and aren't going to fumble that away at the 1 yd line.

Esp when they have 3 Tx schools and 1 OK school to play. B12 is the perfect landing spot for UH.

They always wanted in the big 12, it's their perfect home. And if they did for some reason switch gears and join the Pac, the big 12 could always just add Rice or UTSA as a replacement in Texas. If given the choice of "10 games a year against West Coast teams" or "TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor and OSU + the rest of the big 12", even if the money were slanted $5m in favor of the Pac they'd still want the big 12. A potential Pac expansion with SMU/UTSA/Rice would be a strong play but they'd clearly be #3 in Texas.

(01-09-2023 02:06 PM)YNot Wrote:  All in. PAC 20. Destroy the Big 12 or bust. 9 of the future 12 to dissolve the Big 12.

Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, BYU, plus SDSU.


Or, complete merger with the Big 12. Add SDSU to the west side and Memphis, USF, or Tulane to the east side of the behemoth with four 6-team scheduling divisions:

WEST: Washington, Wazzu, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford
MOUNTAIN: SDSU, Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor
EAST: TCU, Houston, UCF, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Memphis/Tulane/USF

They already tried but big 12 walked away from merger talks and all the teams agreed to a new media rights deal through 2031. That ship has sailed, found a new harbor, received upfits, and sailed again.

(01-09-2023 02:48 PM)YNot Wrote:  Another realistic scenario is that the PAC 10 stays at 10 and schedules a few conference games each year in Los Angeles and Texas. Some of the Texas games kickoff at 12pm ET. Balance the 9-game schedule with 4 home, 4 road, and 1 neutral-site game for every team in the conference: 2 in Texas, 3 in Los Angeles.

What was your first "realistic" scenario? Do you mean the one about the Pac raiding the big 12 for 9/12 of their schools, even though the big 12 has a media rights deal, GoR through 2031, and $80m exit fees, while the Pac has jack squat and 8/10 schools eyeballing an exit? I'm pretty bullish on the Pac short-term, but your scenario is not realistic at all.

(01-09-2023 02:35 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:32 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-09-2023 02:21 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 05:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I agree that SDSU and SMU make the most sense, and both get the invite the day after the new deal is signed (coming in at ~ 1/2 shares for the new deal). Gonzaga has many reasons to prefer the Pac over the big 12, and the Pac is more anxious for good news now than the big 12, meaning they'll likely offer Gonzaga a better deal than the big 12 would. Add it all together, and you still get a big dropoff from USCLA, but perhaps not as crushing of a blow as we might have thought a few months ago.

I think this is plausible.

The 50% shares for the duration of the new deal makes sense and it would give a raise to the current PAC schools and give a bump for SMU/SDSU. I do wonder what happens at the end of the deal? SMU/SDSU won't accept being half a member in future deals.

They are not likely to get only 50% shares for the entire length of the deal. I don't think that has ever happened. There are often graduated payments or buy-ins, but they result in the new member eventually achieving a full share.

I don't think the PAC will expand anyway. But if the PAC does expand, there's a pretty good chance that the conference would completely collapse before the new members make it to the full share period.

The PAC will sign a media contract with GOR until 2030. It will be, at the very least, as good as the B12 contract. Bank on it. The schools have no other options, the BIG isn't offering anyone now and that is the only viable alternative for the PAC schools.

Oh, SDSU will be added as well. If the PAC doesn't, the B12 will take SoCal away from them. No way they can let that happen.

(01-09-2023 12:05 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 10:04 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 10:02 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I've read/watched/listened to the punditry regurgitate this, but sorry, no -

The PAC isn't adding SMU - or anyone else east of the rockies - unless they are part of a group of schools, ie. a whole division.

And that would likely involve a B12 raid. Which, I think, at this point is unlikely.

You should be in LA witnessing who is meeting whom right now….

I could make a case for SMU/UTSA/Memphis/SDSU right now to the Pac (Memphis is nearly the same travel time from Dallas as SA), but I think that the SDSU/SMU/Gonzaga adds is the most likely fit for now. They can always circle back and add UTSA and Memphis when UW/UO leave, and I can absolutely imagine a scenario where all of that happens and nobody ends up leaving the Pac for the big 12.

I don't see the PAC bringing in more than 2 schools. SDSU is a slam dunk for them, but a partner isn't. It is possible, after the UCBOR meeting, that the tax proposed against UCLA would make moving to the BIG much less attractive. I consider that possibility maybe about 20% (pulling that number outta my a$$) but UCLA has to consider that. They have already said that they will pay at least $10M more per year on travel and student/athlete support. Adding a $10M "tax" makes the move much less profitable.

Gonzaga leveraged the MWC to get a better deal with the WCC. So, there is a precedence.

Imagine, the PAC loses USC but keeps UCLA and then adds SDSU. I think that is unlikely but not impossible. I think that would put them in a $40-50M range for conference members.

Gonzaga could be the next Depaul a one coach power.

I think it's going to be SDSU and SMU. I just wonder if they go for four instead of two.

(01-09-2023 12:00 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-08-2023 07:08 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think the most likely scenario is the PAC offers Tulane and offers Houston the support for AAU membership to join them. Tulane is AAU already.

I actually laughed when I read this. I mean, I get it though, why bother with a SoCal school when you can go to New Orleans for a program with very little support and no history of success. And UH is already out of the Pac's reach, they've been trying to get into the big 12 for 25 years and aren't going to fumble that away at the 1 yd line.

Not to disparage SDSU but

1) Tulane has played in a News Year Day bowl, SDSU has not
2) Tulane is already AAU and ranked 44 nationally
3) Houston and Tulane make much better travel partners than SMU and SDSU.

Add SDSU and UNLV or don’t do anything at all.

I fail to see what, if any, appeal SMU has to the existing PAC members.

(01-09-2023 11:05 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  Add SDSU and UNLV or don’t do anything at all.

I fail to see what, if any, appeal SMU has to the existing PAC members.

Why is their AD telling staff members they aren’t being. Considered?

(01-09-2023 09:11 PM)Alanda Wrote:  I think it's going to be SDSU and SMU. I just wonder if they go for four instead of two.

I've been wondering the same. It's a move that would mimic the B12, the only difference is the P12 would become the P14. SDSU, UNLV, SMU, Tulane

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I think personally it's going to be San Diego State, Gonzaga and a separate all sports (football also) school. I personally don't think they add a Texas school to the conference. I think Texas is potentially over recruited with 6 FBS conferences recruiting in Texas. It's going to be 7 if the PAC 12 goes to the conference. I don't think SMU draws enough TV viewership to help the PAC 12 in Texas.
In my mind SMU makes sense if you go to 14 and add at least another Texas school or Tulane plus let's say Colorado State. It would be easy and west divisions

East
Tulane
SMU
Colorado
Colorado State
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State

West
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington State
Washington
Stanford
California
San Diego State

With Gonzaga just adding a 15 team like Notre Dame does with the ACC. I prefer another Texas team over Tulane personally.. though I don't know what the best option is if Rice is to small. I don't know how UTSA, North Texas or Texas State look. I'd figure UTSA is the best option.