(01-08-2023 01:17 PM)unalions Wrote: (01-08-2023 01:14 PM)johnbragg Wrote: (01-08-2023 12:45 PM)unalions Wrote: Then, you have the ESPN article from late November that discusses the potential for FBS teams to limit or stop scheduling FCS schools because of SOS positioning for the expanded playoff.
Except that falls apart if you think about it. With expansion to 12 teams, it's EASIER to get into the CFP with a glittering record against a weak SOS.
Did the CFP committee say anything about TCU's weak OOC schedule? FCS Tarleton State, who's barely Division I, SMU and Colorado?
What about Michigan? People DID talk about Michigan's soft OOC schedule, but that's because they didn't have a quality OOC opponent. They had 3 G5 body-bag games in HAwaii, UConn and Colorado State.
Let's take a look at who were *just* outside the playoff based on this year's rankings. FSU was 9-3, with an FCS win over Duquense. Does anybody think they'd have been ranked over Penn STate if they had pulverized Ball State or South Alabama instead of Duquesne?
Washington ended up 10-2, ranked #12. They had an FCS win. Do they make the playoff if they open the season against Wyoming instead of Porland State? I don't really think so.
The committee hasn't said anything about looking at SOS numbers. They don't seem to care about computer formulas or cross-referenced ranking systems. When they talk about SOS, it's pretty clear they mean "did you play a big quality OOC game?" Sometimes it means "who did you beat or who did you play in the top 10." They really don't seem to care about your 2 or 3 buy games, whether you played South Alabama or North Alabama on ESPN+.
The committee hasn’t had to say anything about SOS with 4. It becomes a much bigger issue at 12 & 16.
They do talk about SOS a decent amount. The issue is, what they mean by SOS. They don't mean your ranking in some computre formula. They mean--who did you play in your big OOC game? How strong is / was your conference (using their subjective eye tests)? Who was your biggest win?
None of that is subject to "gaming the metrics" by doing things like dropping Missouri Valley, Southland, Colonial Athletic Assocation FCS games and adding MAC and CUSA and Sun Belt games.
And I don't see that changing when they go from 4 to 12. I don't think they start acting more like the basketball committee, where they do look at least a little bit at those numbers.
Quote:But, the article also discussed how SEC expansion could simply cause there not to be enough open weeks for them to schedule FCS.
When the SEC goes to 9 conference games, who do you think Tennessee drops off of this year's OOC schedule?
Their OOC game with Pitt, which ended up on ABC?
Their $1.5M body bag game against Ball STate?
Their $1M body bag game against Akron?
Their $500,000 body bag game against UT Martin?
(The $500,000 number is UT Martin's guarantee for their trip to Athens, GA in 2023, but it's good enough for me.)
The Big Ten pushed their schools not to schedule FCS games, partially because the Big Ten owns 40% of BTN, and MAC games are a little better than FCS games for ratings and carriage fees.
The Committee can change their philosophy any time they want to, but if you assume that the P5 will get what they want, and the SEC will especially get what THEY want--what they want is NOT to pay more money for body bag games to no real benefit.
SOS and a 12 team playoff MAY incentivize P5 vs P5 OOC games. (It may not, since you can probably go 10-2 in the SEC or Big Ten wth 3 OOC creampuffs--or 12-1 or 11-2 in the other P5 conferences-- and probably still be #10).