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Billy_Bearcat Online
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Post: #101
RE: benglas playoffs
Bottom line is if we want to get back we can’t lose games to Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the regular season. Their only way back to the SB is to be the 1 seed.

***Mark, you’re the stats guy. I’d love to know:

1.) What’s the winning percentage for home teams in the playoffs.
2.) What’s the winning percentage for the home team in the championship game
3.) what’s the percentage of 1 seeds that go to the SB

Winning on the road with the way refereeing is anymore is almost impossible.
 
01-30-2023 01:41 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #102
RE: benglas playoffs
Idk the stats but we made the super bowl against all of that literally 1 year ago with a worse team...
 
01-30-2023 01:58 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #103
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 11:12 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 11:06 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 09:47 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Page 1 of Foxnews and CNN online this am. Safe to say the whole team has seen it by now. No bueno.

Just heat of the moment emotional damage (insert mental meme here). Everything else I've seen is highly supportive of Ossai including Zac's postgame comments. I couldn't even make out what he was saying in the beginning about "last year". The only thing that makes sense that I can think of is that it's his (Pratt's) last year with the Bengals as he's a free agent and the Bengals have a lot of guys looking to get paid.

Pratt had a surprisingly good year and I'd like to have him back from a performance standpoint, but he's probably gone unless he takes a significant discount over what he might get in the open market.

Following up on that:



My interpretation: He knows he's probably gone and it's not likely it will be to a place that's in as good of a position to have future SB runs in them. This was maybe his best shot going forward. I don't blame him for being upset right after the game.

By the way, FWIW, I think Ossai is going to have a big year next year if he's healthy...

Putting a bow on this "issue", at least for me:

 
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2023 02:12 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
01-30-2023 02:11 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Online
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Post: #104
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Idk the stats but we made the super bowl against all of that literally 1 year ago with a worse team...

My point is I believe that is extremely rare so the odds of doing it again are slim to none
 
01-30-2023 02:16 PM
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Post: #105
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 02:11 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 11:12 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 11:06 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 09:47 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Page 1 of Foxnews and CNN online this am. Safe to say the whole team has seen it by now. No bueno.

Just heat of the moment emotional damage (insert mental meme here). Everything else I've seen is highly supportive of Ossai including Zac's postgame comments. I couldn't even make out what he was saying in the beginning about "last year". The only thing that makes sense that I can think of is that it's his (Pratt's) last year with the Bengals as he's a free agent and the Bengals have a lot of guys looking to get paid.

Pratt had a surprisingly good year and I'd like to have him back from a performance standpoint, but he's probably gone unless he takes a significant discount over what he might get in the open market.

Following up on that:



My interpretation: He knows he's probably gone and it's not likely it will be to a place that's in as good of a position to have future SB runs in them. This was maybe his best shot going forward. I don't blame him for being upset right after the game.

By the way, FWIW, I think Ossai is going to have a big year next year if he's healthy...

Putting a bow on this "issue", at least for me:


Wonder how quickly his agent blew his digits up about cleaning that stuff up heading into contract season.
 
01-30-2023 02:37 PM
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Post: #106
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 02:16 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Idk the stats but we made the super bowl against all of that literally 1 year ago with a worse team...

My point is I believe that is extremely rare so the odds of doing it again are slim to none

It's certainly not impossible and happens more than you think, BUT... it's an enormous advantage to get home field...particularly now. There is almost no way they get that bad a whistle if the game is at PBS. When you try to figure out why home court/field matters...officiating is a huge part of it. Over the long run, you just get a better whistle at home.
 
01-30-2023 02:37 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Online
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Post: #107
RE: benglas playoffs
35 of 66 #1 seeds since 2000 have made the Super Bowl

The real stat I want to know but am having trouble finding is the win percentage of home teams in conference championship games
 
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2023 02:48 PM by Billy_Bearcat.)
01-30-2023 02:44 PM
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RealDeal Online
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Post: #108
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 02:44 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  35 of 66 #1 seeds since 2000 have made the Super Bowl

However the last #1 to win the Super Bowl was Philadelphia in 2017. Obviously this year's winner will be a #1 seed. I do think there's something to be said today for the bye week getting teams out of their rhythm. Everyone would take it because it eliminates the risk of losing and accumulating injuries but since the inclusion of the 7th teams last year the #7s have been awful teams. In the long run not sure being #2 isn't better even with the risk of injury.
 
01-30-2023 02:50 PM
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Post: #109
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 02:50 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 02:44 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  35 of 66 #1 seeds since 2000 have made the Super Bowl

However the last #1 to win the Super Bowl was Philadelphia in 2017. Obviously this year's winner will be a #1 seed. I do think there's something to be said today for the bye week getting teams out of their rhythm. Everyone would take it because it eliminates the risk of losing and accumulating injuries but since the inclusion of the 7th teams last year the #7s have been awful teams. In the long run not sure being #2 isn't better even with the risk of injury.

53% of 1 seeds making the Super Bowl seems like a pretty big deal, and seems to run counter to that. I don't believe in the rust thing AT ALL. Teams know how to deal with a bye. In a one game scenario, where a little bad luck can knock you out...that may 1 seeds getting the Super Bowl shows how meaningful it is. 47% of teams seeded 2-7. HUGE difference.

Obviously, those are the better team, but typically the gap between 1 and 2 (and sometimes 1 and 3) isn't really that big.

And that number includes some outliers. Tennessee was the 1 seed last year, but probably the 5th best team in the AFC. Some random schedule luck and key wins in close games gave them the 1 seed.
 
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2023 02:55 PM by bearcatmark.)
01-30-2023 02:54 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Online
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Post: #110
RE: benglas playoffs
I bet the percentage of home teams winning conference championship games is really skewed. That’s why being 1 or 2 is so important. At 2 you still have that shot to host the CCG.
 
01-30-2023 03:00 PM
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Post: #111
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 03:00 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I bet the percentage of home teams winning conference championship games is really skewed. That’s why being 1 or 2 is so important. At 2 you still have that shot to host the CCG.

Not sure what the overall history record is, but if you go back to 2010, in the AFC the home team has gone 9-3 in the CCG.

2012 Ravens won at New England
2018 Patriots won at Arrowhead
2021 Bengals won at Arrowhead

The NFC has been a little more balanced. The home team has gone 7-5.

2010 Packers won at Chicago
2011 Giants won at San Fran
2012 49ers won at Atlanta
2018 Rams won at New Orleans
2020 Buccaneers won at Green bay
 
01-30-2023 03:44 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #112
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-30-2023 02:16 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-30-2023 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Idk the stats but we made the super bowl against all of that literally 1 year ago with a worse team...

My point is I believe that is extremely rare so the odds of doing it again are slim to none

Sure but that's always true of making the super bowl. I think the biggest factor right now, and for the next few years, will be getting the seed that avoids having to play Buffalo and Kansas City twice in one playoffs. The Chiefs were better than us last year but had a tough game over the Buffalos a week prior. This year they got to play the Jags while we went to a snow game on the road against Josh Allen.

I think in the next few seasons we see Trevor Lawrence get close to that trio but apart from that the Super Bowl runs through Burrow, Mahomes, and Allen moving forward. Lamar in the right situation too.
 
01-30-2023 03:53 PM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #113
RE: benglas playoffs
i hope they bring back von bell and hayden hurst, find a way to pay tee, target a replacement in free agency for bates and continual depth on the ol. draft a rb early (but not too early). cbssports had us taking that georgia te in the first round; i'd be fine with that. wonder how much wiggle room they'll be after joe's contract enters the room

it sucks the season's over and it's a long time till next playoffs but i soon as rather lose than to go to the super bowl via penalty
 
01-31-2023 03:25 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #114
RE: benglas playoffs
(01-31-2023 03:25 PM)Lush Wrote:  i hope they bring back von bell and hayden hurst, find a way to pay tee, target a replacement in free agency for bates and continual depth on the ol. draft a rb early (but not too early). cbssports had us taking that georgia te in the first round; i'd be fine with that. wonder how much wiggle room they'll be after joe's contract enters the room

it sucks the season's over and it's a long time till next playoffs but i soon as rather lose than to go to the super bowl via penalty

A few thoughts:

- I'm like Billy. I like winning, even if it is by penalty. In fact, I feel like we're due to win a game or two that way, maybe even by a "bad call" penalty or two.

- I'd hate to lose both starting safeties especially since we didn't really get a lot of chances to play backups at safety to gain experience. Presumably Bell will be more affordable than Bates so that might be the prudent path. I could see drafting another safety but I don't necessarily think it will be early on given that we took Dax in R1 last year.

- There's a lot to figure out before the draft but I'm a bit of a homer so I wouldn't mind seeing the Bengals draft Mayer if they go for a TE in R1 although he probably won't still be there. If they draft one later on, I'd like to see them get Whyle and/or Taylor. But first, my impression is both the Bengals and Hurst would like to extend their relationship. One nice thing about the Bengals these days is that many guys would choose Cincinnati over similar offers, especially on offense. In the past, they seemed more inclined to go elsewhere. But as you seem to suggest, a lot of it is still going to come down to $$.
 
(This post was last modified: 01-31-2023 08:30 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
01-31-2023 08:28 PM
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Post: #115
RE: benglas playoffs
Reich to Panthers. Payton to Broncos. Ryans to Texans. That leaves Colts and Cardinals. I like this quote from SI.com:

Quote:It’s wild that the Bengals are in position to bring their entire staff back.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/01/30/nfl-co...ns-broncos
 
02-01-2023 10:48 AM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #116
RE: benglas playoffs
put another way, i take solace in knowing the chiefs couldn't advance on their own merits. i know there potentially would have been an overtime but i would have expected the defense to come up with a pick six or some sh!t cuz who knows if burrow would have been able to run the length of the field with that line
 
02-01-2023 12:54 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #117
RE: benglas playoffs
(02-01-2023 10:48 AM)Cat-Man Wrote:  Reich to Panthers. Payton to Broncos. Ryans to Texans. That leaves Colts and Cardinals. I like this quote from SI.com:

Quote:It’s wild that the Bengals are in position to bring their entire staff back.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/01/30/nfl-co...ns-broncos

I'm not celebrating yet. IIRC, reportedly both Lou and Callahan have had interviews with Arizona. And Callahan has advanced to the second round of interviews with the Colts although it sounds like that only means he is in their final 7.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2023 01:14 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
02-01-2023 01:10 PM
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Post: #118
RE: benglas playoffs
(02-01-2023 01:10 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(02-01-2023 10:48 AM)Cat-Man Wrote:  Reich to Panthers. Payton to Broncos. Ryans to Texans. That leaves Colts and Cardinals. I like this quote from SI.com:

Quote:It’s wild that the Bengals are in position to bring their entire staff back.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/01/30/nfl-co...ns-broncos

I'm not celebrating yet. IIRC, reportedly both Lou and Callahan have had interviews with Arizona. And Callahan has advanced to the second round of interviews with the Colts although it sounds like that only means he is in their final 7.

I'm not worried about losing Callahan. As good as the offense has been, it feels like it could be better. Lou is the one that would be hard to replace.
 
02-01-2023 02:26 PM
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