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ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
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schmolik Offline
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Exclamation ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
The current Pac 12 media contracts expires after the 2023-24 season. After that, UCLA and USC are set to move to the Big Ten. At this point there is no news of any other current Pac 12 teams moving to the Big 10 other than the Los Angeles area teams, no word of any Pac 12 expansion, and nothing final on future Pac 12 media contracts beginning in 2024-25.

I don't know how important that late night slot is for ESPN. This year, they averaged 1.67 million viewers per game in that slot this year with mostly Pac 12 games. They won't be able to get the entire intact Pac 12 now. They can either go with the LA less Pac 12 or possibly the Big Ten if there is enough Western expansion to warrant a reasonable number of West Coast games. Let's discuss both possibilities.

Assuming the Pac 12 gets around $30 million per team per year, a 10 team Pac 12 contract would be worth $300 million (add another $30 million for San Diego State). They could get FOX or another network to share the rights but they could have to split the first tier rights and that lowers their late night ratings.

Now of course none of these options include UCLA or USC, at least home games. This past season, 3 of the 11 late night games on ESPN featured either UCLA or USC. ESPN could certainly go for the Big Ten and get access to these schools but the Big Ten would have to add more western schools to give them a full season's worth of late night games feasible. If the Big Ten adds more West Coast teams, it gives ESPN more options for hosting late night games and more late night combinations available. But you also have to convince the Big Ten to add more teams. Big Ten teams are expected to get about $70 million a year in their new contracts. If the Big Ten adds two more teams, they would need to add $140 million a year (assuming FOX, CBS, and NBC doesn't give them any additional money, if they give them less, ESPN would have to make up the difference). If the Big Ten adds four teams, that would require $280 million a year. Supposedly ESPN had nothing to do with Oklahoma and Texas going to go to the SEC (wink, wink) but would it be worth it to ESPN to nudge say Oregon, Washington, California, and Stanford to the Big Ten? If they pay $280 million per year, that would cover the expansion costs for the Big Ten and that would be less than the Pac "10" or "11" minus UCLA/USC. Are those six at $280 million more valuable than the Pac 10 at $300 million? Would just two be worth it? Four West Coast teams (only two WC teams beyond UCLA/USC) aren't going to give enough late night games unless they make non west coast teams play 10:30pm ET/9:30pm CT teams which would be unpopular to the rest of the conference teams and would hurt ESPN's ratings.

So what would be ESPN's best options for late night football? Is it even a priority?
12-22-2022 09:38 PM
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46566 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
Honestly the PAC 12 is the best bet still. What else are they going to show the Mountain West or Big Sky? I think San Diego State is a solid add but #12 is where the numbers screw up for everyone. Cal is happy getting $5 million from UCLA at most yearly so I think they wouldn't mind taking a hit on money per school with expansion. I'm not to sure about the others. Some probably want another California team as #12 while others may want the most valuable brand available.
(This post was last modified: 12-23-2022 02:15 AM by 46566.)
12-23-2022 02:13 AM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
Must have accidentally hit post reply twice. Please merge this post with my other one.
12-23-2022 09:19 AM
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Post: #4
RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
(12-22-2022 09:38 PM)schmolik Wrote:  The current Pac 12 media contracts expires after the 2023-24 season. After that, UCLA and USC are set to move to the Big Ten. At this point there is no news of any other current Pac 12 teams moving to the Big 10 other than the Los Angeles area teams, no word of any Pac 12 expansion, and nothing final on future Pac 12 media contracts beginning in 2024-25.

I don't know how important that late night slot is for ESPN. This year, they averaged 1.67 million viewers per game in that slot this year with mostly Pac 12 games. They won't be able to get the entire intact Pac 12 now. They can either go with the LA less Pac 12 or possibly the Big Ten if there is enough Western expansion to warrant a reasonable number of West Coast games. Let's discuss both possibilities.

Assuming the Pac 12 gets around $30 million per team per year, a 10 team Pac 12 contract would be worth $300 million (add another $30 million for San Diego State). They could get FOX or another network to share the rights but they could have to split the first tier rights and that lowers their late night ratings.

Now of course none of these options include UCLA or USC, at least home games. This past season, 3 of the 11 late night games on ESPN featured either UCLA or USC. ESPN could certainly go for the Big Ten and get access to these schools but the Big Ten would have to add more western schools to give them a full season's worth of late night games feasible. If the Big Ten adds more West Coast teams, it gives ESPN more options for hosting late night games and more late night combinations available. But you also have to convince the Big Ten to add more teams. Big Ten teams are expected to get about $70 million a year in their new contracts. If the Big Ten adds two more teams, they would need to add $140 million a year (assuming FOX, CBS, and NBC doesn't give them any additional money, if they give them less, ESPN would have to make up the difference). If the Big Ten adds four teams, that would require $280 million a year. Supposedly ESPN had nothing to do with Oklahoma and Texas going to go to the SEC (wink, wink) but would it be worth it to ESPN to nudge say Oregon, Washington, California, and Stanford to the Big Ten? If they pay $280 million per year, that would cover the expansion costs for the Big Ten and that would be less than the Pac "10" or "11" minus UCLA/USC. Are those six at $280 million more valuable than the Pac 10 at $300 million? Would just two be worth it? Four West Coast teams (only two WC teams beyond UCLA/USC) aren't going to give enough late night games unless they make non west coast teams play 10:30pm ET/9:30pm CT teams which would be unpopular to the rest of the conference teams and would hurt ESPN's ratings.

So what would be ESPN's best options for late night football? Is it even a priority?

They aren't going to pay more than its worth. And its no guarantee ESPN gets any Big 10 late night.
12-23-2022 10:06 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
Sounds like Amazon is going to get lions share of Pac. So ESPN won't be getting much out of there, but will have some nibbles of late night games.
Still seems to be questions about GOR signing and Unequal sharing of revenue. How much of a hit are the giver's in sharing willing to take, and how long or if OR/WA will sign.
12-23-2022 10:22 AM
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RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
Or Big 12 expansion...
12-23-2022 10:50 AM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
(12-23-2022 10:50 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Or Big 12 expansion...

BYU + Four Corners?
12-23-2022 11:48 AM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
(12-23-2022 11:48 AM)schmolik Wrote:  
(12-23-2022 10:50 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Or Big 12 expansion...

BYU + Four Corners?

BYU + 4c playing conferences games against fellow big 12 opponents would be great, but keep in mind that this is the one time when California has an advantage, or at least less of a disadvantage, over Texas. That 2 hr time difference really matters at midnight. And a hypothetical Pac10 without the 4c would have lots of California/Oregon/Washington exposure in a time slot that isn't nearly as bad there as it is in the midwest, South, or NE.
12-23-2022 02:43 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: ESPN Late Night Football Options (Pac Ten or Big Ten Western Expansion?)
(12-23-2022 10:50 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Or Big 12 expansion...

Or ACC expansion?

Like the NFL, putting 4 far-West teams in a conference (whichever one) should be sufficient to cover the later time slot for a television package.

Divvying up the Pac would be a TV coup. Why pay $30M on 10 when you can spend $50M on 4 and cut your expenses by a third? Of course the Pac is more institutionally aligned than any G5 conference so it won’t be pulled apart too easily.
(This post was last modified: 12-24-2022 03:02 PM by Crayton.)
12-24-2022 03:02 PM
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