The current Pac 12 media contracts expires after the 2023-24 season. After that, UCLA and USC are set to move to the Big Ten. At this point there is no news of any other current Pac 12 teams moving to the Big 10 other than the Los Angeles area teams, no word of any Pac 12 expansion, and nothing final on future Pac 12 media contracts beginning in 2024-25.

I don't know how important that late night slot is for ESPN. This year, they averaged 1.67 million viewers per game in that slot this year with mostly Pac 12 games. They won't be able to get the entire intact Pac 12 now. They can either go with the LA less Pac 12 or possibly the Big Ten if there is enough Western expansion to warrant a reasonable number of West Coast games. Let's discuss both possibilities.

Assuming the Pac 12 gets around $30 million per team per year, a 10 team Pac 12 contract would be worth $300 million (add another $30 million for San Diego State). They could get FOX or another network to share the rights but they could have to split the first tier rights and that lowers their late night ratings.

Now of course none of these options include UCLA or USC, at least home games. This past season, 3 of the 11 late night games on ESPN featured either UCLA or USC. ESPN could certainly go for the Big Ten and get access to these schools but the Big Ten would have to add more western schools to give them a full season's worth of late night games feasible. If the Big Ten adds more West Coast teams, it gives ESPN more options for hosting late night games and more late night combinations available. But you also have to convince the Big Ten to add more teams. Big Ten teams are expected to get about $70 million a year in their new contracts. If the Big Ten adds two more teams, they would need to add $140 million a year (assuming FOX, CBS, and NBC doesn't give them any additional money, if they give them less, ESPN would have to make up the difference). If the Big Ten adds four teams, that would require $280 million a year. Supposedly ESPN had nothing to do with Oklahoma and Texas going to go to the SEC (wink, wink) but would it be worth it to ESPN to nudge say Oregon, Washington, California, and Stanford to the Big Ten? If they pay $280 million per year, that would cover the expansion costs for the Big Ten and that would be less than the Pac "10" or "11" minus UCLA/USC. Are those six at $280 million more valuable than the Pac 10 at $300 million? Would just two be worth it? Four West Coast teams (only two WC teams beyond UCLA/USC) aren't going to give enough late night games unless they make non west coast teams play 10:30pm ET/9:30pm CT teams which would be unpopular to the rest of the conference teams and would hurt ESPN's ratings.

So what would be ESPN's best options for late night football? Is it even a priority?

As I gauge the situation, ESPN appears to be in cost cutting mode. The late night slot is an opportunity to squeeze out some revenue but it has a low ceiling for viewership simply because most of America is in bed for the majority of the broadcast. With that being said, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to spend big on content for the slot. I think ESPN would be elated if they could get 50% of the PAC 10 package so they’d have a game for Friday prime time and one for ESPN late night. It wouldn’t even have to be a package that included a lot of #1 picks. They just need a little bit of West CoSt content on the cheap.

The Pac is the way to go, it will be cheaper for more content. I don't think it's even a discussion at this point. In 2030? Maybe it's what pushes the B1G over the edge into picking up some more Pac members.

Is "more content" meaningful if the "more content" is Oregon State and Washington State?

The 4th time slot is the key to adding more PAC teams to the B1G.

There would be 13 games to fill and the B1G plus WA and OR could do it with each of the 4 west coast teams playing 3 night games and 1 playing 4. That's a lot to ask when each plays only 7 home games. To maximize the price, the B1G would have to guarantee ESPN the marquee games like USC vs. UCLA, but some of those might be shown in the afternoon or evening slot in the east or Fox may want some for its own late west coast slot.

That may be the only way for the B1G to add WA and OR and give them close to a full share. Adding Cal and Stanford too may not work.

(12-22-2022 10:43 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is "more content" meaningful if the "more content" is Oregon State and Washington State?

ESPN is the only real suitor for a Big 10 late night package and there’s no reason to expand deeper into the west coast unless someone is going to pay the Big 10 for the content.

If ESPN makes a deal with the PAC 10, then there’s really no threat of losing anyone.

(12-22-2022 09:37 PM)schmolik Wrote:  The current Pac 12 media contracts expires after the 2023-24 season. After that, UCLA and USC are set to move to the Big Ten. At this point there is no news of any other current Pac 12 teams moving to the Big 10 other than the Los Angeles area teams, no word of any Pac 12 expansion, and nothing final on future Pac 12 media contracts beginning in 2024-25.

I don't know how important that late night slot is for ESPN. This year, they averaged 1.67 million viewers per game in that slot this year with mostly Pac 12 games. They won't be able to get the entire intact Pac 12 now. They can either go with the LA less Pac 12 or possibly the Big Ten if there is enough Western expansion to warrant a reasonable number of West Coast games. Let's discuss both possibilities.

Assuming the Pac 12 gets around $30 million per team per year, a 10 team Pac 12 contract would be worth $300 million (add another $30 million for San Diego State). They could get FOX or another network to share the rights but they could have to split the first tier rights and that lowers their late night ratings.

These were the top-rated games in the 4th broadcast hour:
Week 12 – Utah-Oregon 2.54 million
Week 13- - Washington-Washington State 2.38 million
Week 2 – Baylor-BYU 2.37 million
Week 10 – Cal-USC 2.04 million
Week 5 – USC-Arizona State 1.92 million
Week 5 – Washington-UCLA 1.70 million (Friday Night)

The 4th broadcast hour is important to ESPN. The top three games did not involve UCLA or USC. The Utah-Oregon game, the Washington-Washington State game, and the BYU-Baylor game were the second highest rated game on ESPN in those weeks, losing out to an SEC game played earlier. The Cal-USC game and the USC-ASU game were the third highest rated on ESPN in Week 5 & Week 10, losing out to two SEC games. The Washington-UCLA game was 4th in Week 5 on ESPN.

ESPN is almost certainly going to end up with the Tier 1 rights, but then there are the Tier 2 & Tier 3 rights. Trying to figure out what each Pac-12 school would make in TV revenue is difficult but getting Amazon and/or Apple involved should enhance the total dollar number per school.

(12-23-2022 01:43 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-22-2022 09:37 PM)schmolik Wrote:  The current Pac 12 media contracts expires after the 2023-24 season. After that, UCLA and USC are set to move to the Big Ten. At this point there is no news of any other current Pac 12 teams moving to the Big 10 other than the Los Angeles area teams, no word of any Pac 12 expansion, and nothing final on future Pac 12 media contracts beginning in 2024-25.

I don't know how important that late night slot is for ESPN. This year, they averaged 1.67 million viewers per game in that slot this year with mostly Pac 12 games. They won't be able to get the entire intact Pac 12 now. They can either go with the LA less Pac 12 or possibly the Big Ten if there is enough Western expansion to warrant a reasonable number of West Coast games. Let's discuss both possibilities.

Assuming the Pac 12 gets around $30 million per team per year, a 10 team Pac 12 contract would be worth $300 million (add another $30 million for San Diego State). They could get FOX or another network to share the rights but they could have to split the first tier rights and that lowers their late night ratings.

These were the top-rated games in the 4th broadcast hour:
Week 12 – Utah-Oregon 2.54 million
Week 13- - Washington-Washington State 2.38 million
Week 2 – Baylor-BYU 2.37 million
Week 10 – Cal-USC 2.04 million
Week 5 – USC-Arizona State 1.92 million
Week 5 – Washington-UCLA 1.70 million (Friday Night)

The 4th broadcast hour is important to ESPN. The top three games did not involve UCLA or USC. The Utah-Oregon game, the Washington-Washington State game, and the BYU-Baylor game were the second highest rated game on ESPN in those weeks, losing out to an SEC game played earlier. The Cal-USC game and the USC-ASU game were the third highest rated on ESPN in Week 5 & Week 10, losing out to two SEC games. The Washington-UCLA game was 4th in Week 5 on ESPN.

ESPN is almost certainly going to end up with the Tier 1 rights, but then there are the Tier 2 & Tier 3 rights. Trying to figure out what each Pac-12 school would make in TV revenue is difficult but getting Amazon and/or Apple involved should enhance the total dollar number per school.

Well you seem to forget that ESPN already has access to that BYU-Baylor Game as part of the Big 12 Package. ESPN could pay the PAC 28M per school for 280M. Alternatively they could offer say the Big 12 an extra 30M to take Fresno and SDSU or Fresno and Boise.

That would allow ESPN to have a 7:00 pm eastern SEC game leading into a 10:30 Eastern BYU -Baylor or Fresno -TCU Big-12 game.

A late night package with SDSU and BSU/FSU in the PAC12 is the best bet to fill the late night window. You have some decent fan bases with those MWC and games with Cal and Stanford would draw the most juice. It's just a matter of whether those schools can stomach a school like BSU.

I don't think Midwest teams playing in the 10:30 window does anyone any good. Certainly, if you can't find an afternoon slot for PSU@UO or MSU@UW, that's a good late night matchup, but you can't field those matchups consistently enough to justify bumping the current B1G contract.

If I were the programmer, I would create a late-night game event.

The Saturday Night Special

A featured game each week would be scheduled for late play and broadcast. A cast of analysts would be on hand to discuss the day's results. Guests.

A nighttime version of Gameday.

When a good West coast game is available, use it. When it isn't, pick a good G5 matchup and pay them to move the kickoff.

IMO the choice is easy, the answer is a 10 team PAC. It’s cheaper and you get more content with 10 teams than you would with 2-6. The problem is if the PAC goes all in with Amazon, now you have no 4th window content except Mountain West games. At this point would the mouse sit idle and let it happen or would they along with the B1G want to snatch more PAC schools for a late night TV deal? The question really turns on its head depending on where Kliavkoff signs...