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Crosstown Shootout
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #1
Crosstown Shootout
We might as well start talking about it. I know the views from this board and UC fans in general about this team are very negative, but this is a winnable game.

Xavier:
Xavier is honestly not that different from last year (though I don't expect them to completely collapse the last 1/3 of the season again). They are a team with elite, high end offensive talent that often struggles to defend. You can get good shots against them, and they don't have much rim protection.

They have one specific strength that really worries me... multiple back to the basket bigs that can score. Nunge and Fremantle are both very difficult matchups for this team. UC desperately needs Vik to stay on the floor (no silly fouls).

The guy on Xavier's team that has impressed me the most this year is UTEP transfer Souley Boum. Good passer, great shooter, gets to the foul line and doesn't miss free throws. It will be interesting who gets the assignment on him. I'd probably go with MAW and just give up some size against Kunkel.

Their best player is probably Colby Jones who is another player that gets to the foul line and makes his free throws (also he's a great passer).

In short. Xavier is a load to defend, but you can score on them.

Cincinnati:
So what does UC do well? If you throw out the second half against NKU, the Bearcats have also been a really good offensive team. The Bearcats shoot it well, don't turn it over and hit the offensive glass hard. The biggest issue the UC offense has is that it doesn't do a good job of drawing fouls.

On defense the only thing UC has done well is rebound. They will need to keep X off the offensive glass. The one game that really got away from them was OSU, and that was the one game where UC was just atrocious on the glass. Can't happen.

Intangible Factor / Home Court Advantage:
Xavier has yet to play a true road game and none of their guys have played a true road game in the crosstown shootout (the last game at Cincinnati there was no crowd). Playing on the road is different in college basketball. For me this is the biggest advantage UC will have. Kenpom has Xavier as a 2 point favorite despite Xavier being about 40 spots higher in the rankings. Home court often matters...and in this case it could matter more than normal.

Recipe for UC Victory:
1. Make the shots Xavier gives you. Xavier isn't strong on defense and will give teams open looks. UC's shooters have to hit them.
2. Win on the defensive glass. Xavier is too good on offense to give them a ton of extra possessions.
3. Vik avoids foul trouble. The dropoff from Vik to our other bigs is just enormous against teams with talented scoring bigs. He has to play.
4. Get a good home whistle. The biggest advantage home teams typically get is getting more of the 50/50 calls. It feels like every time UC goes to the Cintas center they are at the wrong end of the whistle. It would be really nice if they felt the same way on Saturday. If the refs are putting Xavier on the line at their typical rates, it is going to be hard to win.
5. No runouts / play in control. Both teams want to push the ball up the floor and play quickly. Both offenses are at their best doing so. We can't be afraid to play to our strength just because its their strength too, but we have to take away the runouts we gave Arizona. They just have to be incredibly disciplined about getting back.

Anyways... That's the recipe. I think UC has more players at their level than they have since 2019... (though we still are not nearly as good in the post and at the PG). The numbers say it should be close. Let's steal one!
 
12-06-2022 09:50 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Crosstown Shootout
Mayne just because I do not live in Cincinnati proper, but I can not get excited for this game. Anymore, it is just another pre-conference game to me.

Now there is a Xavier fan in my hometown I ran into the other day. He knew more about UC basketball than I did because he has been watching all of our games as part of his personal scouting for the for the Shootout.

I shrugged and asked him abut the rumors Xavier is starting a football team. He just said they are desperate to attract any student to the school right now.
 
12-06-2022 10:13 AM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Crosstown Shootout
Count me in on the non-optimistic crowd.

I don't see who we have to guard Nunge and Freemantle. Lahkin will foul out in five minutes. They're just going to abuse us underneath.

I'm not a big stat guy. Stats lie. Especially shooting stats. When you light it up one night against a bad team and can't throw it in the ocean from the beach the next night against a good team, stats will tell you you're a decent shooting team. We're not a good shooting team. I can't see us scoring enough to stay in the game.

It will take an effort not yet seen from this team for us to win.
 
12-06-2022 10:19 AM
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Crewdogz Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
Sean Miller, giving out the NILs before it was a thing
 
12-06-2022 10:20 AM
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levydl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:13 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Mayne just because I do not live in Cincinnati proper, but I can not get excited for this game. Anymore, it is just another pre-conference game to me.

Now there is a Xavier fan in my hometown I ran into the other day. He knew more about UC basketball than I did because he has been watching all of our games as part of his personal scouting for the for the Shootout.

I shrugged and asked him abut the rumors Xavier is starting a football team. He just said they are desperate to attract any student to the school right now.

Ah yes, the old, "You can't hurt me anymore because I don't care" defense mechanism. If you can't get excited about playing X at home with the schedule we have this year, there is no reason to follow UC basketball. This is a huge game.
 
12-06-2022 10:30 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:20 AM)Crewdogz Wrote:  Sean Miller, giving out the NILs before it was a thing

03-lmfao
 
12-06-2022 10:31 AM
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Cat-Man Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Crosstown Shootout
There is some historical significance to this game. MAW and Davenport could be the first class EVER to go 0-4 against X.
 
12-06-2022 10:42 AM
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Edgebrookjeff Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:30 AM)levydl Wrote:  
(12-06-2022 10:13 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Mayne just because I do not live in Cincinnati proper, but I can not get excited for this game. Anymore, it is just another pre-conference game to me.

Now there is a Xavier fan in my hometown I ran into the other day. He knew more about UC basketball than I did because he has been watching all of our games as part of his personal scouting for the for the Shootout.

I shrugged and asked him abut the rumors Xavier is starting a football team. He just said they are desperate to attract any student to the school right now.

Ah yes, the old, "You can't hurt me anymore because I don't care" defense mechanism. If you can't get excited about playing X at home with the schedule we have this year, there is no reason to follow UC basketball. This is a huge game.

I've felt the same way about this team and for about the last 3-4 years. To me it's no different than the way I follow the reds. I'm interested in April, May & June. By the middle of July I'm ready to move on to College football.
 
12-06-2022 10:42 AM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Crosstown Shootout
If UC can keep the loss under double digits I’d consider it a passing grade.
 
12-06-2022 10:46 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:19 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  . When you light it up one night against a bad team and can't throw it in the ocean from the beach the next night against a good team, stats will tell you you're a decent shooting team. We're not a good shooting team. I can't see us scoring enough to stay in the game.

Their best shooting night of the year was against Arizona (the best team on the schedule) when they shot 50% from 3.

UC's shooting is pretty well spread out, not really dependent on who it is against so much as random fluctuations. I get it. People are hung up on the ridiculously awful second half against NKU and the bad OSU game (which was like 16 hours after a hard fought, fast paced Arizona game ended). UC isn't an elite shooting team, but they are a good shooting team, with multiple guys that can hit from deep.
 
12-06-2022 10:49 AM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:49 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-06-2022 10:19 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  . When you light it up one night against a bad team and can't throw it in the ocean from the beach the next night against a good team, stats will tell you you're a decent shooting team. We're not a good shooting team. I can't see us scoring enough to stay in the game.

Their best shooting night of the year was against Arizona (the best team on the schedule) when they shot 50% from 3.

UC's shooting is pretty well spread out, not really dependent on who it is against so much as random fluctuations. I get it. People are hung up on the ridiculously awful second half against NKU and the bad OSU game (which was like 16 hours after a hard fought, fast paced Arizona game ended). UC isn't an elite shooting team, but they are a good shooting team, with multiple guys that can hit from deep.

I'm pretty sure Houston's the best team on the schedule.

And Arizona appeared to not be too interested in defense once the got out well ahead of us.

Maybe there should be a stat called "shooting percentage when it counts".
 
12-06-2022 11:03 AM
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bearcatfan Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Crosstown Shootout
From what I've seen it will take a miracle for UC to win. But who knows.
 
12-06-2022 11:15 AM
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Tomcat Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 10:46 AM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  If UC can keep the loss under double digits I’d consider it a passing grade.


I'm with you Billy. Under 10 a win, but i'm thinking 15-20. Nunge and Freemantle will dominate the paint!
 
12-06-2022 11:25 AM
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UCBearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Crosstown Shootout
Must win game. Cats need it badly this year more than ever.
 
12-06-2022 11:36 AM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
Idk, feels like this is the year. Wes and co start to figure it out from this point forward. Lahkin with another double double. JD hits 6 threes.
 
12-06-2022 11:37 AM
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BrooklynRocket Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Crosstown Shootout
I'm already having nightmares of Davenport getting destroyed in the post.
 
12-06-2022 12:00 PM
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BearcatDave Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Crosstown Shootout
I hate to say it but i have no idea the last time UC won the shootout?
 
12-06-2022 12:44 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 12:44 PM)BearcatDave Wrote:  I hate to say it but i have no idea the last time UC won the shootout?

It was Mick's last season (also the last true home game for UC in the shootout).
 
12-06-2022 12:46 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 11:25 AM)Tomcat Wrote:  
(12-06-2022 10:46 AM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  If UC can keep the loss under double digits I’d consider it a passing grade.


I'm with you Billy. Under 10 a win, but i'm thinking 15-20. Nunge and Freemantle will dominate the paint!

The spread is going to depend on which Nolley shows up. Dude is capable of dropping 30 on any given night. Unfortunately, he might also only score six points on another night. If he is on fire then margin will be tight.
 
12-06-2022 12:54 PM
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bearcatfan Offline
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RE: Crosstown Shootout
(12-06-2022 12:00 PM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  I'm already having nightmares of Davenport getting destroyed in the post.

Don't worry, he doesn't spend much time there.
 
12-06-2022 01:26 PM
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