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22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 12:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

Yup. It appears the AAC will have a fairly robust "middle belt" of teams that are on the cusp of competing for a NCAA bid. Several schools from that "middle belt" will have to quickly progress or the AAC might have trouble continuing as a consistent multi-bid after the next years membership shuffle.

That seems too pessimistic, IMO - - particularly since in this comment, you've completely overlooked the top three CUSA6 teams that will be in the conference next season.

Here are the AAC 2.0 teams in the top 100 of the kenpom.com rankings:

#25 Memphis (8-2)
#46 UAB (7-2)
#47 FAU (8-1)

#67 UNT
#84 Wichita State
#87 Tulane

If UAB or FAU is a top 50 program next season, it will be a potential NCAA team, and the American could certainly be at least a two-bid league.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2022 02:10 PM by Milwaukee.)
12-11-2022 02:07 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 11:08 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  2 NCAA teams in the top 25.
4 Teams in the 51-100 range - which probably results in 2 NIT berths.

It's a 2+2 season for the AAC. We didn't do nearly enough to earn more.

Agree that it certainly looks like a 2+2 (or possibly 2-1) season at this point, although it's too soon to rule out the possibility that a third team could catch fire and earn a bid.

However, UAB and FAU are ranked #44 and #45 at barttorvik.com (#46 & #47 at kenpom.com), and they'll be in the conference next season, so a lot of us will be rooting for them, and as far as some of us are concerned, by the time the post-season rolls around, they'll be considered de facto AAC teams.

So, in that respect, it might be a 3+2 (or 3+3) season for the AAC 1.0 & 2.0 teams.

Potential AAC 2.0 tournament teams (barttorvik.com rankings):

. . . . . . . . . . . . . Potential NCAA tournament teams:
#14 Memphis
#44 UAB
#45 FAU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Potential NIT teams:
#67 UNT
#76 Tulane
#80 Wichita State
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2022 02:27 PM by Milwaukee.)
12-11-2022 02:26 PM
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TripleA Online
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Post: #43
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-10-2022 08:27 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

2 bid league "likely" but "up to" 4 bids... ucf has a decent resume they dont need to do anything crazy to get on the right side of the bubble ..and if tulane and temple finished #2 in the league i could see them in too

I don't see it. Problem is, OOC is almost done, and beyond Memphis and Houston, there are no resume-building wins in this conference. No other AAC teams are getting sniffs in poll votes or tourney brackets, to date.

If Tulane or Temple finishes second, then that could jeopardize Memphis. I don't see that, either. You can say "up to," but I don't see a reasonable path for it.
12-11-2022 02:39 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 02:39 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 08:27 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

2 bid league "likely" but "up to" 4 bids... ucf has a decent resume they dont need to do anything crazy to get on the right side of the bubble ..and if tulane and temple finished #2 in the league i could see them in too

I don't see it. Problem is, OOC is almost done, and beyond Memphis and Houston, there are no resume-building wins in this conference. No other AAC teams are getting sniffs in poll votes or tourney brackets, to date.

If Tulane or Temple finishes second, then that could jeopardize Memphis. I don't see that, either. You can say "up to," but I don't see a reasonable path for it.

ucf has ole miss and mizzou this week.. win both and they are on the right side of the bubble, both winnable
just win one and they still have a decent path

and the committee respects conferences last year they noted the a10 was getting 2 bigs no matte what happened and it made no sense becuase dayton resume wasn't up to par... or wichita the year before in the aac

the committee will reward our #2 team as long as its kinda close on the metrics , they do so for every league they see as notable

and temple has vill, rutgers and a vcu win and could maybe add ole miss.. coming in 2nd in the league would mean some ucf, memphis or houston wins, on 24-9 type of record... the issue is the likelihood of getting 2nd (not great).. but theyd be in at 2nd
12-11-2022 03:09 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 03:09 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-11-2022 02:39 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 08:27 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

2 bid league "likely" but "up to" 4 bids... ucf has a decent resume they dont need to do anything crazy to get on the right side of the bubble ..and if tulane and temple finished #2 in the league i could see them in too

I don't see it. Problem is, OOC is almost done, and beyond Memphis and Houston, there are no resume-building wins in this conference. No other AAC teams are getting sniffs in poll votes or tourney brackets, to date.

If Tulane or Temple finishes second, then that could jeopardize Memphis. I don't see that, either. You can say "up to," but I don't see a reasonable path for it.

ucf has ole miss and mizzou this week.. win both and they are on the right side of the bubble, both winnable
just win one and they still have a decent path

and the committee respects conferences last year they noted the a10 was getting 2 bigs no matte what happened and it made no sense becuase dayton resume wasn't up to par... or wichita the year before in the aac

the committee will reward our #2 team as long as its kinda close on the metrics , they do so for every league they see as notable

and temple has vill, rutgers and a vcu win and could maybe add ole miss.. coming in 2nd in the league would mean some ucf, memphis or houston wins, on 24-9 type of record... the issue is the likelihood of getting 2nd (not great).. but theyd be in at 2nd

Agree with this analysis, although much of it is obviously theoretical at this point. It's apt to remember that only 1/5th of the season has been played thus far.

Regarding Memphis, they're ranked #25 (kenpom.com) and #14 (barttorvik), and as such, they're practically a NCAA tournament lock at this point, assuming that they win at least 12 AAC games, which seems likely.

Even if UCF, Tulane, or Temple were to finish ahead of Memphis, the Tigers would be very likely to get a NCAA bid. Their current Q1/Q2 record is 2-0, and they're 5-1 in Q3/Q4 games.

The AAC has sent an average of 2.8 teams to the NCAA tournament since its inception. Earning 3 NCAA bids would be par for the course.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2022 06:48 PM by Milwaukee.)
12-11-2022 04:08 PM
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ghostofclt! Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
clt is projecting Memphis as a 5 seed
12-11-2022 04:40 PM
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TripleA Online
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Post: #47
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 04:40 PM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  clt is projecting Memphis as a 5 seed

Prefer a 6, but thanks.
12-11-2022 05:49 PM
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oliveandblue Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-11-2022 12:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

Yup. It appears the AAC will have a fairly robust "middle belt" of teams that are on the cusp of competing for a NCAA bid. Several schools from that "middle belt" will have to quickly progress or the AAC might have trouble continuing as a consistent multi-bid after the next years membership shuffle.

One of those other teams needs to get WHITE HOT and end on 22+ wins to make it spicy.
12-11-2022 10:05 PM
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Shockdaminkey Offline
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Post: #49
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
Auburn loses to Memphis which has better wins then Auburn as well, but isn't yet ranked, but Auburn stays top 20; and the over ranked Big10 continues to be over repped in the top 25 as well. They won't be able to keep Memphis out much longer.
12-12-2022 08:27 PM
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pesik Offline
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-12-2022 08:27 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  Auburn loses to Memphis which has better wins then Auburn as well, but isn't yet ranked, but Auburn stays top 20; and the over ranked Big10 continues to be over repped in the top 25 as well. They won't be able to keep Memphis out much longer.

memphis next game is alabama tomorrow... and top 60 a&m this week...

memphis will remain unranked or will be top 15 next week
12-12-2022 08:32 PM
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Memphis Yankee Offline
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Post: #51
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-12-2022 08:32 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-12-2022 08:27 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  Auburn loses to Memphis which has better wins then Auburn as well, but isn't yet ranked, but Auburn stays top 20; and the over ranked Big10 continues to be over repped in the top 25 as well. They won't be able to keep Memphis out much longer.

memphis next game is alabama tomorrow... and top 60 a&m this week...

memphis will remain unranked or will be top 15 next week

What if we split? If we lose to #4 Alabama at Alabama, and beat A&M at home, I would think we'll be about where we are now.
12-12-2022 08:38 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-12-2022 08:38 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  
(12-12-2022 08:32 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(12-12-2022 08:27 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  Auburn loses to Memphis which has better wins then Auburn as well, but isn't yet ranked, but Auburn stays top 20; and the over ranked Big10 continues to be over repped in the top 25 as well. They won't be able to keep Memphis out much longer.

memphis next game is alabama tomorrow... and top 60 a&m this week...

memphis will remain unranked or will be top 15 next week

What if we split? If we lose to #4 Alabama at Alabama, and beat A&M at home, I would think we'll be about where we are now.

bama win, a&m loss... ranked like 23-25

bama loss and a&m win -- still unranked.. but a virtual lock for the tournament with any remotely passable record
12-12-2022 08:44 PM
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Shockdaminkey Offline
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
Saturday is the last meaningful slate of OOC games for the AAC, with 8 playing opponents with some win value for the conference and the last chance for improving resumes for those teams that still have any shot at post-season play. Good luck to one and all.
Conference play begins week after next and we will bid farewell to the wholesome camaraderie we've all grown so accustom to on this brotherly board.
12-16-2022 09:09 PM
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Shockdaminkey Offline
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
Before today's games, here is where the top 7 AAC teams stand in KP:

Houston 2 at Virginia 9 UH is an NCAA lock win or lose, but seed value is large.

Memphis 25 vs. TX A&M 56 Memphis is also a lock and a win only of marginal seed value.

UCF 56 vs. Missouri 62 UCF could put itself in good position for NCAA consideration with a win.
Cincinnati 72 (vs. LaSalle 221)
WSU 82 vs. Okla. State 36
Tulane 86 (vs. George Mason 131 neutral site)
Temple 112 @ Mississippi 59

UC and Tula games of little value but losses would seriously hurt any chance of post season.

WSU could make itself NIT worthy and maintain slight NCAA hopes if they win a good deal more in conference play than projected.

Temple could get back to stronger NIT consideration with a win.

Also, for conference strength considerations are ECU vs. South Carolina, Tulsa at Loyola Marymount (120) next week, and SMU vs. Iona (57) next week in Hawaii.
12-17-2022 11:22 AM
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Shockdaminkey Offline
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
With significant OOC play all but completed, and as NET now becomes more meaningful and begins to be less volatile there is much more clarity as to post season prospects at the top and bottom of the conference with UH and MU essentially assured NCAA tourney bids, and SMU, Tulsa, ECU, and USF almost assured to be out of contention for an NIT bid short of a phenomenal showing in conference play, I will focus on the 5 middle tier teams here to assess prospects for post season.

First, UCF's OOC results, while not without warts (one Quad 4 loss), has shown competitiveness at a level that could get them on the right side of the bubble for an NCAA bid (one Q1 and one Q2 win). So, at worst they should get an NIT bid.

The other 4:

UC has a Q4 loss and no good wins, but their schedule was 3 high level teams and the rest were all low level teams, so with no record of playing middle level teams it is hard to assess how they might do against the AAC middle which is crucial to their NIT prospects. Their KP strength of schedule was not good 255, so while they have post season prospects at this point they don't look strong.

Temple has three Q3 losses which looks bad but they have a Q1 win and a strong KP strength of schedule at 90, so this shows they have strong potential against the AAC middle and potential against the three higher teams to get wins that will give them a strong chance at post-season play, though most likely NIT.

WSU has no good win and a Q4 loss so while that does not hold them up for much consideration, they have preformed well against mid-level strength teams so they have a chance to get wins against the AAC middle teams, which if they over perform 50/50 in those games might get a sniff for an NIT bid. Their KP OOC strength of schedule is 180 similar to UCF's 183, so they have some hope.

Tulane has no good wins and 3 Q3 losses, and with a terrible KP OOC strength of schedule of 322 has not performed nearly well enough of any post season consideration beyond a CBI invite to-date, though they are almost assured to win some middle level AAC games so could play themselves into something better, but their record to-date is not persuasive.

Overall, the AAC's OOC performance outside of UH and MU, and to a lesser extent UCF has been disappointing. The conference's NET standing has fallen from 7th to 9th with the last 2 weeks of games, so it doesn't appear most of our middle and lower teams are getting better, though that is very speculative. But seeing the MWC and WCC ahead of us in the NET is, to me, embarrassing, and will make getting that 3rd NCAA bid that much more dicey.

See you all soon in conference play. Let's hope for a lot of good games and some upsets to make the basketball season more fun for everyone while sharing the pain a bit.04-cheers
12-19-2022 11:25 AM
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TripleA Online
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
University of Memphis, not Memphis University.
12-19-2022 12:02 PM
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-19-2022 12:02 PM)TripleA Wrote:  University of Memphis, not Memphis University.

Of course, a typo, glad you knew who was being referred to. Good on you!
12-19-2022 12:28 PM
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TripleA Online
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-19-2022 12:28 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 12:02 PM)TripleA Wrote:  University of Memphis, not Memphis University.

Of course, a typo, glad you knew who was being referred to. Good on you!

Thank you, University of Wichita State fan!
12-19-2022 03:07 PM
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Shockdaminkey Offline
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-19-2022 03:07 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 12:28 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 12:02 PM)TripleA Wrote:  University of Memphis, not Memphis University.

Of course, a typo, glad you knew who was being referred to. Good on you!

Thank you, University of Wichita State fan!

Go um...!
12-19-2022 03:48 PM
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RE: 22/23 AAC Basketball Ratings and notable OOC games
(12-19-2022 03:48 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 03:07 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 12:28 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  
(12-19-2022 12:02 PM)TripleA Wrote:  University of Memphis, not Memphis University.

Of course, a typo, glad you knew who was being referred to. Good on you!

Thank you, University of Wichita State fan!

Go um...!

lol
12-19-2022 05:52 PM
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