We can look forward to the MACC game since fans have never been accused of losing a game by looking ahead to a championship game - at least not by sane people.

Our likely opponent will be Ohio U. Right off, what concerns me is their QB. I only look at in conference statistics because you can't compare the OOC schedules between teams without it clouding the picture. At least most of the MAC is competitive and you get a pretty good gauge on how teams are playing against comparable competition.

OU and UT match up pretty closely statistically. OU has a huge advantage at QB. Rourke is passing for 309 yards/game, has a 69% completion ratio and a 166.9 efficiency rating in MAC play. He has also rushed for 380 yards with a long of 61 yards and 4 TDs. The back-ups at OU are 6-13 for 60 yards. They cannot afford to see him get injured in the BSU game. If they win, he either plays very little in the last game of the year against BG - or he is relegated to handing the ball off and throwing quickly to avoid sacks. He won't be scrambling with the ball and turning up-field on a run. Also, didn't realize he is 6'5" and 215. His brother was 6'1" and 205 - so I figured he was about the same size. Big improvement in his numbers from last year when he was 11th ranked QB in the MAC in yardage and 9th in efficiency.
They don't do a lot on the ground running the ball.

Kent State ran for 338 yards and 3 TD's on the OU defense. Ohio gives up the most yards against the pass (#12) in the MAC against MAC competition at 316 yards/game. They are 5th against the run. Overall - the worst defense in the league in yards allowed at 465/game - and 10th in scoring defense at 32/game.

They also had a lot of their passing yards against some of the weakest defenses in the conference:

427 against Akron 7th against the pass 24/27
362 against Miami 8th against the pass 35/35
322 against Kent State #11 in pass defense 25/39

They also annihilated Fordham with 537 yards on 50 attempts that helped pump up Rourkes season totals. They won 59-52.

Then he was:
22-34 and 264 vs. Western Won 33-14 (5th in pass defense against the MAC)
14-26 and 200 vs. NIU Won 24-17 (9th in pass defense against the MAC)
20-29 and 317 vs. Buffalo with 5TDs (3rd in pass defense against the MAC) STRONG GAME HERE

Both teams are 5-1; 7-3 overall and 5-0 at home and 2-3 on the road.

Stop Rourke = win the game.

Was hoping for a rematch with Buffalo, but OU stomped them 45-24.

I think UB used up every turnover and offensive play vs. Toledo in that 4th qtr. Blowing out WMU and Miami arent exactly offenses hard to stop. Add in Akron, and their league SOS to this point is in favor of us.

Ohio defensively is not near the D we have. But their offense has helped them more by holding onto the ball and eliminating short fields. They have a nice WR corps. Finn 100% and mistakeless is far harder to gameplan. Id imagine a game in the 30's or 40's. Probably the first time in a while the best 2 teams are going to make it to the D.

Ohio U worries me because they’re the closest thing to a pure pass attack on our schedule aside from Ohio State who hung eleven touchdowns on us. Granted the OSU is probably the best passing offense in college football and Ohio U relatively speaking is nowhere in the ballpark, but UT is unproven against a pass-heavy offensive attack. There were also situations where our opponents have gone to all-out passing game against us, like the 4th quarters of the Central and NIU games, and they lit us up in those situations. Rourke would be the best QB we’d see since CJ Stroud, and it’s not close. Was really hoping to get revenge on Buffalo, but Ohio U destroyed them. Most improved team in the MAC by a wide margin. At least we should be able to hypothetically score at will on them. It’ll be a matchup between the first & second team all-MAC QB’s. That’s probably how it should be.

(11-13-2022 12:16 PM)therockets046 Wrote:  Ohio U worries me because they’re the closest thing to a pure pass attack on our schedule aside from Ohio State who hung eleven touchdowns on us. Granted the OSU is probably the best passing offense in college football and Ohio U relatively speaking is nowhere in the ballpark, but UT is unproven against a pass-heavy offensive attack. There were also situations where our opponents have gone to all-out passing game against us, like the 4th quarters of the Central and NIU games, and they lit us up in those situations. Rourke would be the best QB we’d see since CJ Stroud, and it’s not close. Was really hoping to get revenge on Buffalo, but Ohio U destroyed them. Most improved team in the MAC by a wide margin. At least we should be able to hypothetically score at will on them. It’ll be a matchup between the first & second team all-MAC QB’s. That’s probably how it should be.

QB play is awful in the MAC. Toledo is 15th nationally in passing yards allowed, and 6th in defensive passing efficiency. Its actually rushing teams which have hurt is. See 198 yards for Carson Steele. But those arent rushing teams by choice. And also big plays are far rarer rushing than passing. Ohio can put up points FAST.

Our defensive passing number is skewed toward lots of backups in the MAC, and us not playing a single team who passes first. Ohio is 13th in passing offense, OSU 19th.

(11-13-2022 12:42 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(11-13-2022 12:16 PM)therockets046 Wrote:  Ohio U worries me because they’re the closest thing to a pure pass attack on our schedule aside from Ohio State who hung eleven touchdowns on us. Granted the OSU is probably the best passing offense in college football and Ohio U relatively speaking is nowhere in the ballpark, but UT is unproven against a pass-heavy offensive attack. There were also situations where our opponents have gone to all-out passing game against us, like the 4th quarters of the Central and NIU games, and they lit us up in those situations. Rourke would be the best QB we’d see since CJ Stroud, and it’s not close. Was really hoping to get revenge on Buffalo, but Ohio U destroyed them. Most improved team in the MAC by a wide margin. At least we should be able to hypothetically score at will on them. It’ll be a matchup between the first & second team all-MAC QB’s. That’s probably how it should be.

QB play is awful in the MAC. Toledo is 15th nationally in passing yards allowed, and 6th in defensive passing efficiency. Its actually rushing teams which have hurt is. See 198 yards for Carson Steele. But those arent rushing teams by choice. And also big plays are far rarer rushing than passing. Ohio can put up points FAST.

Our defensive passing number is skewed toward lots of backups in the MAC, and us not playing a single team who passes first. Ohio is 13th in passing offense, OSU 19th.

Seems like this would be to our advantage. I only look at conference stats when doing the comparison so it knocks out weak teams on the schedule - along with the tough games - that can skew the numbers.

What concerns me the most is the completion % of Rourke and his passing efficiency. We will be the toughest pass defense he will have faced - since Penn State and Okla. State. Against PSU, Rourke was 14/30 for 119 yards. Against Oklahoma State, he was 20 of 33 for 192 and 2 intercepts. About 6 yards per attempt. BUT, he also had 2 guys that each caught 1 pass for 51 yards total. Without those receptions - he was 18 of 33 and 141 - about 4.3 yards/attempt.
He did have a good game against Buffalo - and we did not. Finn threw 24 of 46 for 240 and 4 picks spread out over 9 receivers/RB's.

One of the keys will be who has the most team speed because of it being played indoors on turf. Toledo can also make it about depth if they can control the running game and keep their defense on the field without making substitutions. I'm betting OU doesn't have much depth.

If Finn is 100%, I think he mixes in more runs and roll outs for passes. I like what that gives us with Turner and Kuhl - and the running backs. That will be tough for Ohio to defend.

We also need to be more physical and the OL has to dominate the D-line of Ohio. Easier said than done, but we have been getting better. That also means no stupid penalties - especially away from the ball. Given the completion %, I have to believe Rourke throws a lot of short stuff. Punish them on the catches. Hook needs to have the receivers peeking to see where he is at if they are throwing toward his side of the field. He causes a lot of receivers to suddenly have shorter arms.

(11-13-2022 03:21 PM)MotoRocket Wrote:  

(11-13-2022 12:42 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(11-13-2022 12:16 PM)therockets046 Wrote:  Ohio U worries me because they’re the closest thing to a pure pass attack on our schedule aside from Ohio State who hung eleven touchdowns on us. Granted the OSU is probably the best passing offense in college football and Ohio U relatively speaking is nowhere in the ballpark, but UT is unproven against a pass-heavy offensive attack. There were also situations where our opponents have gone to all-out passing game against us, like the 4th quarters of the Central and NIU games, and they lit us up in those situations. Rourke would be the best QB we’d see since CJ Stroud, and it’s not close. Was really hoping to get revenge on Buffalo, but Ohio U destroyed them. Most improved team in the MAC by a wide margin. At least we should be able to hypothetically score at will on them. It’ll be a matchup between the first & second team all-MAC QB’s. That’s probably how it should be.

QB play is awful in the MAC. Toledo is 15th nationally in passing yards allowed, and 6th in defensive passing efficiency. Its actually rushing teams which have hurt is. See 198 yards for Carson Steele. But those arent rushing teams by choice. And also big plays are far rarer rushing than passing. Ohio can put up points FAST.

Our defensive passing number is skewed toward lots of backups in the MAC, and us not playing a single team who passes first. Ohio is 13th in passing offense, OSU 19th.

Seems like this would be to our advantage. I only look at conference stats when doing the comparison so it knocks out weak teams on the schedule - along with the tough games - that can skew the numbers.

What concerns me the most is the completion % of Rourke and his passing efficiency. We will be the toughest pass defense he will have faced - since Penn State and Okla. State. Against PSU, Rourke was 14/30 for 119 yards. Against Oklahoma State, he was 20 of 33 for 192 and 2 intercepts. About 6 yards per attempt. BUT, he also had 2 guys that each caught 1 pass for 51 yards total. Without those receptions - he was 18 of 33 and 141 - about 4.3 yards/attempt.
He did have a good game against Buffalo - and we did not. Finn threw 24 of 46 for 240 and 4 picks spread out over 9 receivers/RB's.

One of the keys will be who has the most team speed because of it being played indoors on turf. Toledo can also make it about depth if they can control the running game and keep their defense on the field without making substitutions. I'm betting OU doesn't have much depth.

If Finn is 100%, I think he mixes in more runs and roll outs for passes. I like what that gives us with Turner and Kuhl - and the running backs. That will be tough for Ohio to defend.

We also need to be more physical and the OL has to dominate the D-line of Ohio. Easier said than done, but we have been getting better. That also means no stupid penalties - especially away from the ball. Given the completion %, I have to believe Rourke throws a lot of short stuff. Punish them on the catches. Hook needs to have the receivers peeking to see where he is at if they are throwing toward his side of the field. He causes a lot of receivers to suddenly have shorter arms.

Great Summary.

I love our DBs ability to challenge passes and tackle in open space. Would/will be a fun matchup. One of the top matchups of programs the MAC could ask for.