(06-18-2023 01:13 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think the AAC and MWC are poaching each other. They’re both likely getting hit by the Pac-12 and they’ve both failed to poach each other despite each having had a superficial upper hand over the other at different points over the past decade.

Texas State is the school to watch because of the location. They would get the MWC into the part of Texas that “matters” for recruiting and market purposes (which unfortunately for UTEP, they don’t address). For that same reason, the AAC may want Texas State to solidify their position as the primary G5 league for the State of Texas and not let the MWC entrench into that territory. If there was an obvious different G5 target that would bring value, then maybe the MWC and AAC would think differently, but I honestly think the location of Texas State is the most valuable piece on the G5 board for conference realignment purposes (which is distinct from competitive purposes) out of the schools that aren’t already in the MWC or AAC.

Frank, long time appreciater, first time questioner — doesn’t the loss of two NCAA MBB auto bids and the impending 12 team CFP make an AAC-MWC merger a pipe dream?

(06-19-2023 03:31 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 03:12 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 02:44 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 09:30 AM)Comet Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 10:10 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Some seem to be letting their biases cloud their predictions. I'll try to take an unbiased stab at this...

The AAC takes Air Force & Boise State (after the AAC agrees to wave the entrance fees, allow Air Force to have a separate Navy type home game media deal, and Boise realizes their special deal won't be so special in a MWC minus SDSU & Air Force)

The AAC is not pulling the best from MWC.

The PAC is taking the best from the MWC. The AAC has a chance to take the second best. The MWC's position is only going to weaken over time. With SDSU and possibly others leaving for the PAC, the MWC's media deal will get hit. I could see Aresco offering Air Force and either Boise or Colorado State an invitation without an entrance fee. None of the MWC programs want to get left behind and be forced to backfill with marginal options. A few of the better programs might have an exit to the AAC. These university presidents and AD's are thinking 10 to 20 years into the future. Paying a $16 or $17 million buyout now seems worth it to escape the MWC before the league falls further behind.

So you think the PAC will raid the MWC beyond just SDSU, in fact you have CU leaving the PAC for the B12 but CSU and AF are going to be worried that they'll get left behind to the point they'll jump right into another G5 conference that is at just as much risk of losing it's best properties in the next 5-10 years. Not going to happen.

I think the PAC will take UNLV, for their Vegas market. And yes, I do think the presidents at the better MWC schools understand the door is closing on their power conference options. The Big12 is set on raiding from the PAC and in time the ACC. Those MWC programs have no chance at backfilling any of those future ACC openings. And, if the PAC wants them later once the B1G finally adds Oregon and Washington, they will still be able to take them.

Remember the entire P5/G5 dynamic is finished. Even if we see another round of realignment in 10 years, any MWC program that moves to the AAC will be in a stronger position to move up when those dominos begin to fall.

Woke Judge Smails isn’t in charge of Stanford anymore? Dang, times are a changing!