The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

I know this will sound odd to you but Kenpom isn't a tried and true religion. What eyes see still matters.

(02-02-2023 11:35 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I know this will sound odd to you but Kenpom isn't a tried and true religion. What eyes see still matters.

I know it might sound odd to you but I watch a crap ton of basketball.

I've probably watched more Houston than any team outside of uc. My eyes are why I am sold on them. They have so many guys. They do everything pretty well. They finally have a lottery pick type dude.. that's an elite team.

(02-02-2023 08:46 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Normally I would laugh at O$U losing again to fall to 11-11... if only they didn't beat our a$$ by 28 earlier in the season.

Oh, I can still laugh. But I'm also tired of recent basketball losses to OSU, dating back to the home and home losses we saw under Cronin.

The reason Kenpom and other efficiency metrics are useful is that over time, team records tend to converge to their efficiency. Kenpom is more useful than W/L records by far for that matter. The idea being that games are affected by variables out of a team's control like road games (worth ~1.0-2.5 ppg in a given year) and luck (the way refs call the game, the way shots fall in an arena, etc). So if a team plays 5 games that are all within 1 possession, that team could be 0-5 in those games, 2-3, 3-2, or 5-0 and all be similar in caliber, given that a team might get a 2 or 3 point advantage due to the factors mentioned.

Obviously, over time those game-to-game variances converge and you get a better picture of a team and their record. But in a 5 game stretch, the massive variances in college basketball could render some randomness to how the records play out.

Memphis and Tulane in OT right now

Tulane wins by 1 in OT.

Perhaps they will be emotionally and physically drained for the UC game?

Tulane pulls off the upset despite shooting 13-24 from the free throw line. I bet they don't miss a free throw against us on Tuesday.

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:23 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:21 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I'm starting to think the college basketball national champion will come from one of these 5 teams:

Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Kansas

UConn has the kenpom profile, but I just don't trust them. Every other team has a pretty big flaw on offense or defense.

You can remove Purdue. They always choke. ALWAYS.

You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

(02-04-2023 07:13 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:23 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:21 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I'm starting to think the college basketball national champion will come from one of these 5 teams:

Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Kansas

UConn has the kenpom profile, but I just don't trust them. Every other team has a pretty big flaw on offense or defense.

You can remove Purdue. They always choke. ALWAYS.

You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

I love this post.

I bet with you today

Several ranked teams went down on the road in conference play today...

#1 Purdue @ #21 Indiana
#6 Virginia @ Va Tech
#8 Kansas @ #13 Iowa St
#15 TCU @ OKST

Late tonight #12 Gonzaga visits #18 Saint Mary...

(02-04-2023 07:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:13 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:23 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:21 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I'm starting to think the college basketball national champion will come from one of these 5 teams:

Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Kansas

UConn has the kenpom profile, but I just don't trust them. Every other team has a pretty big flaw on offense or defense.

You can remove Purdue. They always choke. ALWAYS.

You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

I love this post.

I bet with you today

Your welcome.

Bet on Purdue at Lafayette. IU sucks on the road.

(02-04-2023 07:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:13 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:23 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:21 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I'm starting to think the college basketball national champion will come from one of these 5 teams:

Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Kansas

UConn has the kenpom profile, but I just don't trust them. Every other team has a pretty big flaw on offense or defense.

You can remove Purdue. They always choke. ALWAYS.

You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

I love this post.

I bet with you today

I went with your post (on twitter) and went 0-2.

(02-04-2023 11:59 PM)The Big O Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:13 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:23 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  You can remove Purdue. They always choke. ALWAYS.

You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

I love this post.

I bet with you today

I went with your post (on twitter) and went 0-2.

Ha. I lost those 2 too. Wasn't one of my better days off hoops (though uc game was good to me)

(02-04-2023 07:46 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Several ranked teams went down on the road in conference play today...

#1 Purdue @ #21 Indiana
#6 Virginia @ Va Tech
#8 Kansas @ #13 Iowa St
#15 TCU @ OKST

Late tonight #12 Gonzaga visits #18 Saint Mary...

Another one goes down. Life on the conference road is tough.
#12 Gonzaga 70
#18 Saint Mary 78

(02-05-2023 09:14 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:46 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Several ranked teams went down on the road in conference play today...

#1 Purdue @ #21 Indiana
#6 Virginia @ Va Tech
#8 Kansas @ #13 Iowa St
#15 TCU @ OKST

Late tonight #12 Gonzaga visits #18 Saint Mary...

Another one goes down. Life on the conference road is tough.
#12 Gonzaga 70
#18 Saint Mary 78

Logan Johnson made the best of his transfer. Another NCAA appearance and nationally ranked. Not a bad 6 year run for him.

(02-05-2023 07:22 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 11:59 PM)The Big O Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-04-2023 07:13 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  You also told me Indiana was better than Purdue and that you'd take Jackson-Davis (a great player) over Edey (far and away the best player in college basketball right now).

You were saying...???

I love this post.

I bet with you today

I went with your post (on twitter) and went 0-2.

Ha. I lost those 2 too. Wasn't one of my better days off hoops (though uc game was good to me)

I’m learning to go against you and Hawk and cash in

Dear Lord Temple is going to be a tough out. Their big, Jamille Reynolds, apparently just came back from an injury earlier in the year. Dude is six ten and about 280. He has a build like Yancey Gates...

Saw a stat last night during the West Virginia game that some here might enjoy given Huggins and UC moving to the B12.

During Huggins time as head coach at WVU, the Mountaineers have hosted 66 ranked teams in Morgantown. What is their record in those games? I'll post the answer this afternoon.

(02-09-2023 08:37 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  Saw a stat last night during the West Virginia game that some here might enjoy given Huggins and UC moving to the B12.

During Huggins time as head coach at WVU, the Mountaineers have hosted 66 ranked teams in Morgantown. What is their record in those games? I'll post the answer this afternoon.

No idea...ha.

Speaking of WVU, they are a good lesson I hope this board pays attention to in the Big 12. WVU is 15th kenpom. They had a 5 game losing streak where 4 of the 5 were one possession games in the final minute of regulation and one went to OT. They've responded by winning 5 of 7 all against top 70 teams.

The Big 12 is a monster. Losing a few games doesn't mean your team sucks. Hell, Kansas had a 3 game losing streak. I hope this board doesn't overreact when UC inevitably loses a few games in the Big 12.

(02-09-2023 08:51 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-09-2023 08:37 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  Saw a stat last night during the West Virginia game that some here might enjoy given Huggins and UC moving to the B12.

During Huggins time as head coach at WVU, the Mountaineers have hosted 66 ranked teams in Morgantown. What is their record in those games? I'll post the answer this afternoon.

No idea...ha.

Speaking of WVU, they are a good lesson I hope this board pays attention to in the Big 12. WVU is 15th kenpom. They had a 5 game losing streak where 4 of the 5 were one possession games in the final minute of regulation and one went to OT. They've responded by winning 5 of 7 all against top 70 teams.

The Big 12 is a monster. Losing a few games doesn't mean your team sucks. Hell, Kansas had a 3 game losing streak. I hope this board doesn't overreact when UC inevitably loses a few games in the Big 12.

Bolded, I worry about that a little with as fragile as some fans are. Then again, Wes will have to start winning a few games in conference to keep hope alive and we'll need 12,012 rowdy fans in Fifth Third even to beat a TTU, TCU, or West Virginia.

I really believe UC is entering a better conference, top to bottom than the old Big East, even though we witnessed multiple national championships by conference mates there. The lower half of that conference always got a good bounce in the polls based on proximity to media capital NYC and brand recognition for places such as Providence, Seton Hall, and St. John's. When TTU has been to a Final Four in recent memory, and a Hall of Fame Coach at WVU struggles to get out of the cellar I think it's evidence that the Big 12 is far and away the best these days.