(11-07-2022 10:30 AM)Just Joe Wrote:  He's a big name but when has Dan Patrick broken realignment news before? IIRC the last I remember seeing his name was one of those "I hear Washington/Oregon to the Big Ten" right after the LA schools announced which while it certainly is possible down the road hasn't happened yet. He does quick, catchy realignment related takes for audiences that don't obsess over college sports like we do and quickly move on.

At least we know that he's an unbiased source, as far as I know he doesn't care about the Pac, big 12, or any conference unless maybe Dayton or the A10 is involved. Ofc, Dan's source might be biased or misinformed, but for him to report this the way he did gives me reason to think that he trusts the source, or perhaps he's heard a lot from many sources.

(11-07-2022 12:22 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Wilner not sold on this

That likely is the logical way to go. Find out what you will be getting, then what additions mean to bottom line. Lets say combo deal Amazon and ESPN are 29 million, will they pay 29 million extra to add SD State or anyone else for that matter.

If answer is yes SD State is totally logical way to go.

Very likely will be 1/2 shares with a GoR for 6-7 years.

I think Zaga would come in at 1/4 shares and Hawaii at 1/4 if they go with them. I wouldn't go past 1/3 1/3 for those two. I don't think SDSU joins unless they get at least 1/2.

(11-07-2022 11:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:30 AM)Just Joe Wrote:  He's a big name but when has Dan Patrick broken realignment news before? IIRC the last I remember seeing his name was one of those "I hear Washington/Oregon to the Big Ten" right after the LA schools announced which while it certainly is possible down the road hasn't happened yet. He does quick, catchy realignment related takes for audiences that don't obsess over college sports like we do and quickly move on.

This. I would tread carefully on this one. It's possible Dan Patrick has the scoop, but he has not proven anything in the realignment world.

This summer, he said something like UCF was one of the primary schools under consideration by the SEC, which is extremely unlikely.

This was my first take too. Dan Patrick?

MAYBE, whatever off-handed comment his source made signals that the Pac is transitioning from corralling their 10 members (which must be done first) to expansion OR that once they do sign their GOR, SDSU is mostly agreed upon to increase conference value. But, I think there is still work to be done finding the best possible deal that will keep everyone intact.

(11-07-2022 11:16 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Could they go with eleven schools?

If they don't go with Zaga/Hawaii, then I have to believe BSU gets a serious look before taking SMU. SMU is the favorite though.

If they add SMU, I don't see why you just don't end up adding Rice/Tulane as well. It makes sense at the right price. I can't see any of these schools coming in at more than 1/3 shares if they go to 14 schools, which I think they need to as a buffer for future defections.

Not a bad set of 14. If you go for SMU I guess Rice and Tulane DO become easier adds (at a steep discount). I also think the next deal will be for 7 years and for a rate competitive with the ACC/XII, so this could be how the Pac keeps Oregon and Washington happy (for only those 7 years).

UBC Thunderbirds

(11-07-2022 10:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:49 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:43 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  I think SDSU is really the only no brainer addition for the PAC 12. All the other candidates have reasons they shouldn’t be added.

Boise- Bad academics, luster is fading
UNLV- sports aren’t very good, tiny fanbase
Hawaii- sports aren’t good, facilities are atrocious, far away
Fresno- Academics
Colorado State- sports aren’t very good, market already covered
New Mexico- bad everything
SMU- far away, small fanbase
Rice- sports aren’t good, tiny fanbase, far away

Hawaii is building a new stadium, however. Football has been down but they have had success in the past. The islands do produce some D1 athletes. I like the pairing of Hawaii (football)/Gonzaga (Olympics).

Hawaii would be awful for the PAC, IMO. The travel is terrible, the academics are "meh", and the football tradition and history is nil.

If Hawaii was added, defections to the nB12 would soon follow, I think.

Just my take.

Hawaii football tradition isn't much different than USF's (a regular expansion candidate , their academics are Pac-worthy, and they give the pac an extra 4.5 games every year.

https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/arwu/2022 - same ranking tier as WSU and UO and one tier below a couple others.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sch...index.html - all time winning record, regular bowl participation, made the Sugar bowl in 2007.

I'd be interested to see the source material you used to come up with your claims.

edit: as far as travel time, yeah, it's 2700 miles from Seattle to Hawaii, but that's why teams get an extra game.

If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)e-parade Wrote:  If true, I feel happy for SDSU. The PAC is what they wanted and have striven for, and they could finally be getting the call up.

SDSU was already close to average Pac value, the only holding them back has been a 12th to go with them. Either the Pac decided to preemptively add them without a 12th, or there's a 12th lurking, or perhaps a Gonzaga + a football school. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzaga factored into this, they'd certainly be additive to the new pac deal, and with the big 12 Yormarkin' at them the Pac likely felt a sense of urgency on that matter. SDSU is likely to be revenue neutral, leaving just perhaps a small per-team overall loss with Boise, Fresno, SMU or Hawaii (football only), perhaps not even a loss at all if their network partners have interest in specific schools. It's easy to make a case that Fresno/SDSU helps shore up SoCal, or SDSU/SMU brings in 2 great markets, or SDSU/Gonzaga/+1 football bring value and enthusiasm.

(11-07-2022 12:33 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:30 AM)Just Joe Wrote:  He's a big name but when has Dan Patrick broken realignment news before? IIRC the last I remember seeing his name was one of those "I hear Washington/Oregon to the Big Ten" right after the LA schools announced which while it certainly is possible down the road hasn't happened yet. He does quick, catchy realignment related takes for audiences that don't obsess over college sports like we do and quickly move on.

At least we know that he's an unbiased source, as far as I know he doesn't care about the Pac, big 12, or any conference unless maybe Dayton or the A10 is involved. Ofc, Dan's source might be biased or misinformed, but for him to report this the way he did gives me reason to think that he trusts the source, or perhaps he's heard a lot from many sources.

Do we have a transcript of what PAtrick said though? Did patrick say "I spoke to a number of ADs" or did he say "well, this could happen, you never know, sometimes it just comes out of nowhere."

(11-07-2022 12:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)e-parade Wrote:  If true, I feel happy for SDSU. The PAC is what they wanted and have striven for, and they could finally be getting the call up.

SDSU was already close to average Pac value, the only holding them back has been a 12th to go with them. Either the Pac decided to preemptively add them without a 12th, or there's a 12th lurking, or perhaps a Gonzaga + a football school. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzaga factored into this, they'd certainly be additive to the new pac deal, and with the big 12 Yormarkin' at them the Pac likely felt a sense of urgency on that matter. SDSU is likely to be revenue neutral, leaving just perhaps a small per-team overall loss with Boise, Fresno, SMU or Hawaii (football only), perhaps not even a loss at all if their network partners have interest in specific schools. It's easy to make a case that Fresno/SDSU helps shore up SoCal, or SDSU/SMU brings in 2 great markets, or SDSU/Gonzaga/+1 football bring value and enthusiasm.

Of all those a Gonzaga Olympic plus SMU football only probably works for all parties - Gonzaga has great academics (of course) and also some other sports on par with P5. They could use Dallas market for recruiting.

(11-07-2022 11:10 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:15 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

If true, probably means UW and Oregon have been told no for now by Big 10.

I don't think this tells us anything about UW/UO. It might mean they're definitely staying in the pac and signing a GoR, it might mean they're definitely NOT staying and not signing a GoR, or it might just mean that 8 of the 10 pac schools voted to accept them while UO/UW said no.

(11-07-2022 11:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I still think that if the PAC couldn’t extract a Big XII school out of this, you can start counting the days until the next PAC school announces it’s leaving the conference. And it’s not like SDSU is slumming it, because we know that move maybe should have been made a long time ago (and probably has the two UC schools to blame for it not happening), but, with that name cache and group of schools, which is still high quality, how is the best thing the PAC can get is from the AAC or MWC, and not a Big XII who did their own raid of AAC?

How many times do we need to go over this.

big 12: 80m exit fee, strong stability
pac: no exit fee, 2/3 of the conference has wandering eyes

The Pac might eventually be a potentially big 12 poacher, but not this cycle. If any poaching from p5 conferences happens this cycle then it's pac schools leaving for another conference.

(11-07-2022 12:53 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:33 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:30 AM)Just Joe Wrote:  He's a big name but when has Dan Patrick broken realignment news before? IIRC the last I remember seeing his name was one of those "I hear Washington/Oregon to the Big Ten" right after the LA schools announced which while it certainly is possible down the road hasn't happened yet. He does quick, catchy realignment related takes for audiences that don't obsess over college sports like we do and quickly move on.

At least we know that he's an unbiased source, as far as I know he doesn't care about the Pac, big 12, or any conference unless maybe Dayton or the A10 is involved. Ofc, Dan's source might be biased or misinformed, but for him to report this the way he did gives me reason to think that he trusts the source, or perhaps he's heard a lot from many sources.

Do we have a transcript of what PAtrick said though? Did patrick say "I spoke to a number of ADs" or did he say "well, this could happen, you never know, sometimes it just comes out of nowhere."

someone posted the actual blurb, it was a 12 second offhand "my source tells me that SDSU is joining the pac as soon as next week". One source, not sources.

Normally I'd take Dan Patrick's source over others, but Wilner knows more about the inner workings of the Pac than any of us, and almost certainly more than Dan's source. If Wilner says "media deal first, then expansion", then I'd say that's what is happening unless something unexpected comes up.

Most SDSU fans are excited for the potential move to the PAC12 and the opportunities it will bring. However, we will believe it when we see the PAC12 and SDSU make the joint announcement. The PAC12 and SDSU wishes to join the PAC12 have been the proverbial Lucy and Charlie Brown trying to kick the football scenario with the PAC12 being Lucy and SDSU being Charlie Brown.

PAC has also met with UNLV, SMU, and UTSA. UTSA is most likely a courtesy call. UNLV is attractive but has serious issues. SMU is a no-brainer with the exception of a travel partner for the Ponies. USAFA? (National draw and great academics) Rice? (Doubtful. Content with AAC.) Tulane, Tulsa, or Memphis? Doubtful

(11-07-2022 11:15 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:49 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:43 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  I think SDSU is really the only no brainer addition for the PAC 12. All the other candidates have reasons they shouldn’t be added.

Boise- Bad academics, luster is fading
UNLV- sports aren’t very good, tiny fanbase
Hawaii- sports aren’t good, facilities are atrocious, far away
Fresno- Academics
Colorado State- sports aren’t very good, market already covered
New Mexico- bad everything
SMU- far away, small fanbase
Rice- sports aren’t good, tiny fanbase, far away

Hawaii is building a new stadium, however. Football has been down but they have had success in the past. The islands do produce some D1 athletes. I like the pairing of Hawaii (football)/Gonzaga (Olympics).

Hawaii would be awful for the PAC, IMO. The travel is terrible, the academics are "meh", and the football tradition and history is nil.

If Hawaii was added, defections to the nB12 would soon follow, I think.

Just my take.

They have gone to 13 bowl games since 1999, including the Sugar Bowl in 2008. They won seven of those games, wins against BYU, Houston, (twice) and Arizona St.

Definitely a great performance vs Georgia in that game.

We did better against Georgia in that game than Illinois did against USC the same day in the Rose Bowl. But I don’t see anybody suggesting that Illinois be kicked out of the Big 10.

(11-07-2022 12:47 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

So they can play Charlotte, Rice and FAU?

(11-07-2022 12:55 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)e-parade Wrote:  If true, I feel happy for SDSU. The PAC is what they wanted and have striven for, and they could finally be getting the call up.

SDSU was already close to average Pac value, the only holding them back has been a 12th to go with them. Either the Pac decided to preemptively add them without a 12th, or there's a 12th lurking, or perhaps a Gonzaga + a football school. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzaga factored into this, they'd certainly be additive to the new pac deal, and with the big 12 Yormarkin' at them the Pac likely felt a sense of urgency on that matter. SDSU is likely to be revenue neutral, leaving just perhaps a small per-team overall loss with Boise, Fresno, SMU or Hawaii (football only), perhaps not even a loss at all if their network partners have interest in specific schools. It's easy to make a case that Fresno/SDSU helps shore up SoCal, or SDSU/SMU brings in 2 great markets, or SDSU/Gonzaga/+1 football bring value and enthusiasm.

Of all those a Gonzaga Olympic plus SMU football only probably works for all parties - Gonzaga has great academics (of course) and also some other sports on par with P5. They could use Dallas market for recruiting.

Where would SMU put its non-football sports?

(11-07-2022 12:18 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:43 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  I think SDSU is really the only no brainer addition for the PAC 12. All the other candidates have reasons they shouldn’t be added.

Boise- Bad academics, luster is fading
UNLV- sports aren’t very good, tiny fanbase
Hawaii- sports aren’t good, facilities are atrocious, far away
Fresno- Academics
Colorado State- sports aren’t very good, market already covered
New Mexico- bad everything
SMU- far away, small fanbase
Rice- sports aren’t good, tiny fanbase, far away

Hawaii is getting a new stadium and somebody shared some pics of their basketball arena and baseball stadium. Anything but atrocious.

And they already park their Olympic sports in the Big West. However, for it to work for me it would be in combination with adding Gonzaga.

(11-07-2022 01:11 PM)The WEST is the BEST Wrote:  PAC has also met with UNLV, SMU, and UTSA. UTSA is most likely a courtesy call. UNLV is attractive but has serious issues. SMU is a no-brainer with the exception of a travel partner for the Ponies. USAFA? (National draw and great academics) Rice? (Doubtful. Content with AAC.) Tulane, Tulsa, or Memphis? Doubtful

UTSA could be an SMU travel partner eventually, but not today. UTSA is barely more than a decade into football, and they only had a $29m athletics budget last year. They have a long was to go to even get up to Boise's or Fresno's level, much less SDSU, SMU or Memphis.

(11-07-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:47 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

So they can play Charlotte, Rice and FAU?

If the AAC were willing to offer not only Air Force and Colorado State but also Wyoming and New Mexico, I think the likelihood of success would be considerably higher (assuming the MWC had already lost SDSU and one other western division member to the Pac).