Quote:The business of building homes is in a deep slump.

The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday that its monthly confidence index fell 8 points to 38 in October. This is the tenth straight month of falling confidence, the longest stretch of declines on record.

A year ago, the index was at a robust 90. Outside of the first months of the pandemic, this is the lowest level since 2012.

Economists had expected a shallower decline to 44 after the September read of 46. Any number lower than 50 indicates that builders regard conditions as poor rather than good.

All three components of the index were down sharply. The measure of current sales conditions dropped 9 points. The metric for sales expectations six months ahead declined by 11 points. The buyer traffic gauge dropped six points.

Builder confidence was down in all four geographic regions, led by the south and the west—the two biggest markets for home building.

Interest rates have risen sharply as the Fed has sought to squeeze inflation out of the economy. The 30 fixed rate began the year around seven percent and recently topped seven percent. That has hurt hoousing affordability and driven both buyers and sellers out of the market.

Builders expect there will be a decline in single-family starts this year, according to the trade group. That would be the first annual decline since 2011.

“This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues. While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers.”

“This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable,” the association’s chairman Jerry Konter said in a statement. “Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

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Cost of construction materials are through the roof, 40 year high in inflation is eroding purchasing power and mortgage interest rates are double what they were under Trump.

watch what happens as inflated $$$ from the NE and WC are fully realized in the S/SE as the boomers die off in transition...



we're gainin' on _ _ it _






y'all ain' seen shite, yet...

(10-19-2022 08:52 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  watch what happens as inflated $$$ from the NE and WC are fully realized in the S/SE as the boomers die off in transition...



we're gainin' on _ _ it _






y'all ain' seen shite, yet...

Yep, that's exactly right. My parents live in a nice neighborhood. Really just looks like a 60s and 70s era upper middle class suburb, which it basically is (there are some newer homes scattered in as acreage was slowly sold off or subdivided). It was all kids growing up there, now almost no kids. A lot of parents in a similar income to myself relative to the population. At least half the current owners are the same people that built their house in the 60s and 70s. New people coming in have been mostly boomers or their kids that only need to be able to afford the taxes. You can't get a 1,900 sqft rancher in that neighborhood for under $550k right now and there is also about a mile of waterfront homes that range from about $1.2M to $3M. Who is going to buy these when the old folks start croaking or moving into retirement homes?

(10-20-2022 08:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  Yep, that's exactly right. My parents live in a nice neighborhood. Really just looks like a 60s and 70s era upper middle class suburb, which it basically is (there are some newer homes scattered in as acreage was slowly sold off or subdivided). It was all kids growing up there, now almost no kids. A lot of parents in a similar income to myself relative to the population. At least half the current owners are the same people that built their house in the 60s and 70s. New people coming in have been mostly boomers or their kids that only need to be able to afford the taxes. You can't get a 1,900 sqft rancher in that neighborhood for under $550k right now and there is also about a mile of waterfront homes that range from about $1.2M to $3M. Who is going to buy these when the old folks start croaking or moving into retirement homes?

Investment companies who can then rent them out

You will own nothing and you will like it

(10-20-2022 08:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-19-2022 08:52 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  watch what happens as inflated $$$ from the NE and WC are fully realized in the S/SE as the boomers die off in transition...



we're gainin' on _ _ it _






y'all ain' seen shite, yet...

Yep, that's exactly right. My parents live in a nice neighborhood. Really just looks like a 60s and 70s era upper middle class suburb, which it basically is (there are some newer homes scattered in as acreage was slowly sold off or subdivided). It was all kids growing up there, now almost no kids. A lot of parents in a similar income to myself relative to the population. At least half the current owners are the same people that built their house in the 60s and 70s. New people coming in have been mostly boomers or their kids that only need to be able to afford the taxes. You can't get a 1,900 sqft rancher in that neighborhood for under $550k right now and there is also about a mile of waterfront homes that range from about $1.2M to $3M. Who is going to buy these when the old folks start croaking or moving into retirement homes?

the law of diminishing has just begun ... it was inevitable ... most folks don't have a clue what's staring them in the face ... most never figgle it out until it's too late...

this country will be unrecognizable in <50 years...

hence, #costa ... if not, it's to the woods with me geetars, muh whiskey/keg and 420 ... I'll accept either, but fishing the best salt-life on the planet vs. watching this shiteshow unfold is muh preference ... ~7 yrs now running to the finish line...



@simpleNumbers

(10-20-2022 08:52 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  Yep, that's exactly right. My parents live in a nice neighborhood. Really just looks like a 60s and 70s era upper middle class suburb, which it basically is (there are some newer homes scattered in as acreage was slowly sold off or subdivided). It was all kids growing up there, now almost no kids. A lot of parents in a similar income to myself relative to the population. At least half the current owners are the same people that built their house in the 60s and 70s. New people coming in have been mostly boomers or their kids that only need to be able to afford the taxes. You can't get a 1,900 sqft rancher in that neighborhood for under $550k right now and there is also about a mile of waterfront homes that range from about $1.2M to $3M. Who is going to buy these when the old folks start croaking or moving into retirement homes?

Investment companies who can then rent them out

You will own nothing and you will like it

Investment companies are not buying up $550k, 50 year old ranchers to rent out at $2000 per month. That's a pretty schitty investment.

(10-20-2022 09:12 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:52 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  Yep, that's exactly right. My parents live in a nice neighborhood. Really just looks like a 60s and 70s era upper middle class suburb, which it basically is (there are some newer homes scattered in as acreage was slowly sold off or subdivided). It was all kids growing up there, now almost no kids. A lot of parents in a similar income to myself relative to the population. At least half the current owners are the same people that built their house in the 60s and 70s. New people coming in have been mostly boomers or their kids that only need to be able to afford the taxes. You can't get a 1,900 sqft rancher in that neighborhood for under $550k right now and there is also about a mile of waterfront homes that range from about $1.2M to $3M. Who is going to buy these when the old folks start croaking or moving into retirement homes?

Investment companies who can then rent them out

You will own nothing and you will like it

Investment companies are not buying up $550k, 50 year old ranchers to rent out at $2000 per month. That's a pretty schitty investment.

that is correct ... they're buying up beaters and 'fluffing' to absorb the 20 under a roof sect that are crossing the southern border....

@watchingItHappenInRealTime