(10-18-2022 04:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Barring that, and if UConn leaves, the Big East should focus on adding members that do not sponsor FBS football.

This x 100 -- and I hope UConn gets the opportunity to join either (Super)Conference #3 or a reconfigured ACC.

(10-18-2022 02:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I still think it's very possible ESPN gets in with the Big East as well. Losing a lot of hoops with the Big Ten obviously.

No. They kneecapped the league once before.

Just thinking about it in a little more depth:

Nobody in the Big East is going anywhere. UConn will leave if the ACC comes calling, but that's about it.

The ACC is bound to be a shadow of itself within the next 15 years.

Why would the Big East add the likes of Memphis, St. Louis, and Dayton rather than waiting until the ACC's inevitable transformation, after which the likes of Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, and possibly NC State and Duke will be available?

In the unlikely scenario under which the ACC finds a way to retain all of its memberships in 2036, St. Louis; Dayton; VCU; and Gonzaga will all still be available should the Big East be looking to expand at that point.

(10-18-2022 06:24 PM)OneSockUp Wrote:  Just thinking about it in a little more depth:

Nobody in the Big East is going anywhere. UConn will leave if the ACC comes calling, but that's about it.

The ACC is bound to be a shadow of itself within the next 15 years.

Why would the Big East add the likes of Memphis, St. Louis, and Dayton rather than waiting until the ACC's inevitable transformation, after which the likes of Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, and possibly NC State and Duke will be available?

In the unlikely scenario under which the ACC finds a way to retain all of its memberships in 2036, St. Louis; Dayton; VCU; and Gonzaga will all still be available should the Big East be looking to expand at that point.

The Big East has “been there done that” with football schools. It’s one thing to have UConn in there as an exception, but another to add a whole class of schools where, no matter how good of basketball programs they might be, will always need to make football-first decisions. At the same time, the Big East TV contract negotiation window opens up in early 2024, so these schools aren’t going to forego an opportunity to maximize revenue for the next decade-and-a-half to wait for potential additions from the ACC that either (a) likely would just backfill the ACC anyway if other ACC schools leave for the Big Ten and/or SEC and (b) even they didn’t backfill, would bring the football conflicts of interest that they just spent the last decade getting away from (and thriving).

(10-18-2022 02:29 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 01:54 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 01:31 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Xavier is going to block them but I would like to see Dayton in the conference. They were one of the teams that was REALLY screwed over by the pandemic, that looked like a Final Four team with Obi Toppin. If that team gets to the Final Four (heck, even wins the national championship), we look very differently about them. The Big East should have added them at the same time as Xavier instead of just Xavier and allow them to block them.

Does one school really have that power? I mean if all ten other schools are on board with Dayton are they really going to let Xavier stand in the way of that?

Temple says hi. On the other hand, Seton Hall (and St. John's) couldn't keep Rutgers out.

My guess is conferences often have gentleman's agreements. Villanova will appease Xavier so that Xavier will appease Villanova to keep Temple out, DePaul will appease both of them to keep Loyola out, and even if a school has no neighboring schools now that are good, what about a few years from now? The only school that practically has no problems with that would probably be Creighton.

Same thing in the SEC. Why aren't Florida State or Clemson in now? You can say University of Texas but they're a bit bigger than Florida State or Clemson in terms of athletic budget, fanbase, and demographics.

I definitely think there’s a gentlemen’s agreement in the Big East to not add members in each other’s respective territories.

Now, the SEC example might not be the best one because that list of schools all constitute major national brands. When Texas wants to join your league, you say yes regardless of what Texas A&M wants. FSU and Clemson haven’t felt the need to seek SEC membership until now, so they’re also going to be looked at much differently as SEC candidates when the ACC GOR expires than, say, USF or Coastal Carolina.

To that point, the Big East gentlemen’s agreement works because there isn’t really a big-time national brand expansion candidate in its existing footprint, anyway. If Gonzaga was transported to Dayton’s location, it would probably be the case that Xavier wouldn’t be able to block their entry because the expansion value would be too great. It’s a lot easier to have a gentlemen’s agreement when there isn’t anyone that you’d want to add from a current market anyway. Ohio State can block Cincinnati and Penn State can block Pitt and Temple from the Big Ten, but you can be sure that Indiana and Purdue have zero ability to block Notre Dame.

(10-18-2022 05:47 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 02:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I still think it's very possible ESPN gets in with the Big East as well. Losing a lot of hoops with the Big Ten obviously.

No. They kneecapped the league once before.

$$$ talks.

So I guess Kansas was one of them?

(10-18-2022 07:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 06:24 PM)OneSockUp Wrote:  Just thinking about it in a little more depth:

Nobody in the Big East is going anywhere. UConn will leave if the ACC comes calling, but that's about it.

The ACC is bound to be a shadow of itself within the next 15 years.

Why would the Big East add the likes of Memphis, St. Louis, and Dayton rather than waiting until the ACC's inevitable transformation, after which the likes of Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, and possibly NC State and Duke will be available?

In the unlikely scenario under which the ACC finds a way to retain all of its memberships in 2036, St. Louis; Dayton; VCU; and Gonzaga will all still be available should the Big East be looking to expand at that point.

The Big East has “been there done that” with football schools. It’s one thing to have UConn in there as an exception, but another to add a whole class of schools where, no matter how good of basketball programs they might be, will always need to make football-first decisions. At the same time, the Big East TV contract negotiation window opens up in early 2024, so these schools aren’t going to forego an opportunity to maximize revenue for the next decade-and-a-half to wait for potential additions from the ACC that either (a) likely would just backfill the ACC anyway if other ACC schools leave for the Big Ten and/or SEC and (b) even they didn’t backfill, would bring the football conflicts of interest that they just spent the last decade getting away from (and thriving).

When the Catholic 7 left behind the AAC, think about who they left behind. UConn yes but Cincinnati, USF (was never a good men's basketball school in the Big East), and a bunch of schools that never played a full season in Big East men's basketball (Temple, Houston, UCF, Memphis, SMU, East Carolina). We can talk about the Big East being anti football but they were never anti UConn or anti Syracuse, both original Big East members. The original Catholic Big East members (Villanova, Seton Hall, Georgetown, St. John's, and Providence) never had a problem with Syracuse, Pittsburgh, or Boston College football and certainly had no problem with Miami football. But are Houston/SMU/East Carolina football and men's basketball worth it (and answer it from when the split happened, not the current Houston men's basketball team)? I didn't think so and neither did the Catholic 7.

I wonder if, since ESPN doesn’t have any Big Ten content to anchor the Midwest, if they’ll look to the 5 Midwestern/6 Northeastern member Big East to plant a presence in the region, even if it is just for basketball?

Maybe Dayton or St Louis could be the benefactor of ESPN’s effort to bolster the Midwestern wing of the league?

(10-18-2022 08:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 05:47 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 02:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I still think it's very possible ESPN gets in with the Big East as well. Losing a lot of hoops with the Big Ten obviously.

No. They kneecapped the league once before.

$$$ talks.

Fox broadcasts every game on linear. ESPN can only offer streaming at this point.

(10-18-2022 09:45 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 08:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 05:47 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 02:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I still think it's very possible ESPN gets in with the Big East as well. Losing a lot of hoops with the Big Ten obviously.

No. They kneecapped the league once before.

$$$ talks.

Fox broadcasts every game on linear. ESPN can only offer streaming at this point.

ESPN will be losing a lot of linear Big Ten slots.

Look I get it you want no part of ESPN. But $$$ talks. Also Fox pawns off some of the games on CBSSN.

The play is to add Gonzaga. Yes, the league would likely lose the double round robin. However, by having a 20-game schedule with 12 schools (including Gonzaga), I do think the league would average around 7 bids a year.

The travel concern is also out of whack. Gonzaga only has three men's and women's team sports: m/w basketball, m/w soccer, baseball, and volleyball. If they play two teams in a 3-4 day period on the road, they will only have to make five trips east a year at most for each of these sports.

Their other sports will only require one trip east for the conference championship meet.

(10-18-2022 07:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  [the same time, the Big East TV contract negotiation window opens up in early 2024, so these schools aren’t going to forego an opportunity to maximize revenue for the next decade-and-a-half to wait for potential additions from the ACC that either (a) likely would just backfill the ACC anyway if other ACC schools leave for the Big Ten and/or SEC and (b) even they didn’t backfill, would bring the football conflicts of interest that they just spent the last decade getting away from (and thriving).

Aside from Gonzaga, no school the Big East could add right now would materially add value to the Big East’s media deal. The BE schools each stand to get $5-6 million per year from a new deal. Dayton, VCU, and St Louis will absolutely not add that much value. Considering Fox already offloads BE games to CBS and ESPN+ Is showing games every night, it doesn’t appear that networks need to overpay to get inventory.

The Big East is about the most stable league in the nation right now. All they need to do is monitor the ACC’s situation and be ready to pounce on Syracuse if that ever becomes possible.

Inviting Gonzaga would be akin to inviting UNLV in 1991. Butler was invited because of a few hotshot years and now they look more like the A10 program they should be.

The double round robin is a nice benefit to an 11-team league, but it definitely can’t be a driving factor in expansion decisions.

I’m very rarely an “expansion for more inventory” person, but going from an 11-team league to a 12-team league has a significant impact on inventory at the “cost” of only adding one school. An odd-numbered team league is forced to have at least 1 team on a bye both in the midweek slate of games and on the weekend slate of games. That’s eliminated in a 12-team league, so you essentially gain an average of 2 additional games per week of inventory to sell to the TV partner(s) even though the league only expands by 1 team. That makes the financial bar for school #12 to make money a lot lower than what a lot of fans think - it doesn’t have to be “Gonzaga or bust” for Big East expansion to make sense.

(10-18-2022 10:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  Inviting Gonzaga would be akin to inviting UNLV in 1991. Butler was invited because of a few hotshot years and now they look more like the A10 program they should be.

I don’t think that’s quite fair for Gonzaga - they’re essentially on a 25-year run of success. I don’t think the risk of Gonzaga faltering is really any more than a general chance that any brand has a risk of not living up to prior performance.

(10-18-2022 10:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think that’s quite fair for Gonzaga - they’re essentially on a 25-year run of success. I don’t think the risk of Gonzaga faltering is really any more than a general chance that any brand has a risk of not living up to prior performance.

There is always risk. Georgetown had a 25+ year run, too.

(10-18-2022 10:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  Inviting Gonzaga would be akin to inviting UNLV in 1991. Butler was invited because of a few hotshot years and now they look more like the A10 program they should be.

Gonzaga is not UNLV. The former has gone to tournament 20+ straight years. I'm sure that streak will be broken within 5-7 years of joining the BE (regardless of whether Few is still there) but Gonzaga would be a good add and a brand that will outlive Few.

(10-18-2022 10:49 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 10:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think that’s quite fair for Gonzaga - they’re essentially on a 25-year run of success. I don’t think the risk of Gonzaga faltering is really any more than a general chance that any brand has a risk of not living up to prior performance.

There is always risk. Georgetown had a 25+ year run, too.

Georgetown has poor coaching right now. They will be back.

The thing that did UNLV in was Tark getting hit with sanctions and resigning in disgrace. Don't see that happening to Gonzaga and with Few only being 59 their run is going to last at least another decade. If they were anywhere east of the Mississippi NBE would've already tried to invite. They're a perfect fit otherwise.