Well the season opener is only about three weeks away, and the exhibition in 2 weeks, so I thought I would start a thread to build up some excitement for what has the potential to be an amazing season. I have previews of all 22 of UT's opponents, and some other thoughts on the season to come.

Let's start with the 1st, and likely the weakest, of the opponents, Wright State:


Wright State @Savage, 11AM Nov 7 (Education Day)

Conference: Horizon
21-22 Record: 3-19
21-22 NET: 300

All-Time UT Record: 8-3
Streak: UT 7 straight wins
Last meeting: UT 73-56 11/13/2021
Last WSU Win: 80-67 2/21/1981

WSU had a really tough season under 1st year coach Kari Hoffman. She took over a team that had finished 19-8, won the Horizon tourney, beat 4-seed Arkansas in the 1st round of the NCAAs, but lost most of their best players to the portal. This year, the rebuild starts all over again as only 2 players return from last year's interim 3-19 squad, and those two only accounted for 9 pts and 4 reb per game. (Neither of them scored in the UT game.) They add 5 DI transfers, 2 DII transfers, 5 incoming HS recruits and 1 international from Romania - so a completely new roster. On paper, none of the DI transfers appear to be immediate impact players, with the most accomplished being Bryce Nixon who comes from Santa Clara (14-15) where she averaged 5 pts & 2 ast, after having started her career at Arizona. The transfers also include former Sylvania Northview star Kacee Baumhower (mid-season transfer in her FR year at St. Bonaventure) and former CMU Chip Rachel Loobie.

Coach Hoffman came to WSU from nearby DII Cedarville, a small religious school, where she played, was a long time assistant and eventually became HC. Two of her WSU assistants and her DoBO are also Cedarville alums & former coaches. The only assistant not from Cedarville played at Liberty and had been coaching at another small religious school, Evangel (MO), although she grew up in nearby Xenia. So, I am speculating that part of last year's troubles stemmed from a culture clash between the players and the coaching staff.

Given the complete roster turnover again this year, nothing can be learned from last year's performance. Coach's most recent Cedarville teams were high scoring teams who shot a ton of threes, and Hoffman herself was a 3-pt specialist when she played. WSU is by far the smallest team UT will play, (average roster height a bit over 5'8,) so one might expect a similar style from them this year. The two best hopes for impact could be the DII grad transfers, who both come from - you guessed it - Cedarville. They were the two best players there in 5'5 G Emily Chapman (15 pts) and 5'9 G Isabelle Bolender who missed most of last year with an injury but put up 14 pts the previous season. Those two will have to prove they can not just play, but actually lead a team at the DI level to make an impact with the Raiders this year.

Will be interesting to see if the coach can eventually turn this group back into a winning program, but it seems pretty much impossible for that to happen by the 1st game of this season. Expect UT to continue its winning ways against WSU this year with a comfortable opening day win, where the newcomers and bench players get a lot of playing time.

Game 2: Canisius @Savage, 7PM Nov 11

Conference: MAAC
21-22 Record: 6-25
21-22 NET: 327

All-Time UT Record: 3-0
Streak: UT 3 straight wins
Last meeting: UT 83-65, 12/29/2019

Canisius was another team to have a rough season under a 1st year coach, former Miami & BGSU assistant Sahar Nusseibeh. In her 1st game as a head coach, the Golden Griffins lost to Buffalo an astounding 102-42 - welcome back to the MAC! She had been on Roos' staff at BGSU the year they went 30-5, beat UM and OSU, and lost to Rutgers in the WNIT Elite 8. So, she does have some experience with winning teams. That team finished top 20 in the country in scoring defense and top 5 in 3FG% defense. She had coached the defense in all her assistant stints from what I have read.

Last year, Canisius was all about the three, finishing 26th in the nation in 3-point attempts (25/g,) but fortunately for their opponents, that didn't lead to many points, as they finished 306th in scoring (58 pts) and 317th in overall FG% (36.9%). Defense was not completely terrible though, holding opponents to 69 pts and 28% 3FG%. They return about 60% of their production, including leading scorer 5-5 SO G Dani Haskell (14 pts.) They add 3 DI transfers including grad transfer G Vannessa Garrelts (2 pts) from Miami who followed her former coach there. The two other transfers did not play at all last year. They also add 3 freshmen and a Canadian recruit. The freshmen include 6'3 F Chloe Peloquin from Newark (OH) Catholic, who I mention because UT has offered her younger sister, Sophie, who is a 6'0 G 2025 recruit.

I suspect that the Griffins will be somewhat improved this year with coach in her second season, but don't see enough additions to think they will be any threat to UT. The wildcard is likely transfer Giana Hernandez-Boulden. She was a top-100 rated guard coming out of HS in 2020 who signed with WVU. It appears she transferred to Rhode Island before ever playing a game at WVU, and then transferred again in the middle of last season to Canisius. Don't know the reason for the transfers but I don't believe she has played a single college over 2 seasons. If she is as good as the HS hype though, (and stays put at Canisius) she could be an impact player this season - assuming she is eligible, given her back-to-back transfers.

I expect UT to continue their unbeaten record against the Golden Griffins with a comfortable win.

Game 3: Cincinnati @Cinci, TBA Nov 16

Conference: AAC
21-22 Record: 11-17
21-22 NET: 195

All-Time UT Record: 3-8 (3-3, post 1983)
Streak: UT 1 win
Last meeting: UT 72-51 3/19/2012
Last Cinci win: 60-59 12/23/2008

Last season, Cinci was another offensively challenged team, finishing 275th in scoring, at just under 60 per game. They were also very foul prone committing the 25th most fouls nationally, and finishing 331st in FTA attempts allowed. Their best stat was 21st in blocked shots, led by 6'1 SO G Jillian Hayes (62 blocks), who was also their leading scorer (11 pts). Cinci played 2 MAC schools last year, losing to Ohio 73-62 at home, and squeaking by last-place CMU 59-54, also at home. They also lost to Marquette 60-49 in Milwaukee. Five of their 11 victories last year were over teams that won less than 10 games, but somehow they did beat 2 top-100 teams - UCF (26-4, NET 16) at home (61-57), and Houston (NET 77) on the road (71-56). So, they can't be slept on.

This season, they return about 65% of their production from last year including Hayes, their best player, who led the Bearcats in scoring, rebounding, steals and blocks. They are a big team, with a front-court that include 6'3 & 6'4 players and several others over 6'. They did lose their starting PG, Akira Levy (10 pts, 5 ast) who transferred to Gardner Webb for some reason. They did not add a whole lot in the off-season, but did add DI transfer Mya Jackson from Seton Hall. She was a career double digit scorer for the Pirates, and scored a dozen in their OT win over Toledo last year. They also added JUCO transfer G Dais'Ja Trotter from Rend Lake College (IL) who was 1st team All-American last year and the nation's leading scorer at over 24 pts. If she adapts quickly to DI ball, she could add the much-needed scoring punch Cinci lacked last season.

Coach Michelle Clark-Heard is going into her 5th season at Cincinnati. Her teams had been averaging 25 wins during her time at WKU and her 1st 2 years at Cinci, so the last 2 seasons with losing records are a surprise. Unsure what happened those two years to cause the drop off, but you have to believe at some point she will turn things around again. The additions of Jackson and the JUCO AA could make Cinci a dangerous team, especially at their place (Cinci only averages about 800 fans a game, but had 1700 for Ohio, and so I might think they will have a better crowd for Toledo too.) UT should still be able to win, but it may be closer than it might look on paper.

Game 4: Duke @Savage, 1PM, Nov 20

Conference: ACC
21-22 Record: 17-13
21-22 NET: 52

All-Time UT Record: 1-2
Streak: UT 1 win
Last meeting: UT 71-65 11/18/2001
Last Duke win: 71-41 11/26/2000

Duke had a good, but not stellar, record last year but they showed they can play with the best on a given night. They dominated Iowa (NET 14) 79-64 & Dayton (NET 43) 70-56 and edged Notre Dame (NET 15). Not a high scoring team, they averaged just 65 pts but held opponents to just 62. That's impressive given the strength of their competition both in the ACC and OOC (by NET they had the 39th toughest schedule in DI.) Their leading scorer, Shayeann Day-Wilson returns (12 pts) as well as 2 other starters who contributed 8 pts a piece.

They lost about half their production to graduation, but have replaced it and more, I think, through the portal and with new recruits. Already a big team, they got bigger with transfers 6'3 Taya Corosdale and 6'6 Kennedy Brown both from Oregon State (combined for 15 pts, 13 reb for the Beavers.) They also added 6-3 Mia Heide from Tulane (9 pts, 6 reb) and FR G Reigan Richardson from Georgia (5 pts). But the real story is probably in their HS recruits which include 6'0 G and MacDonald's All-American Ashlon Jackson who chose Duke over Stanford, Oregon, UConn and others. She won the 3 point shooting contest at the All-American game (beat the boys' best too), and shot over 40% from three in HS. ESPN had her as the #16 recruit this year. I expect she will start and be a tough assignment for UT. They also added another 6'3 player in Shay Bollin who was also widely recruited by numerous high majors, and top 100 G Emma Koabel from Canada, who is reported to be a sharpshooter from three as well. Duke appears to be loaded.

Head coach Kara Lawson is entering her third season at Duke. She has an unbelievable resume, having played under Pat Summit at Tennessee where she was a 4-time All-American, played in 3 NCAA final fours, is an Olympic Gold Medalist, a 13 year WNBA veteran and was an assistant coach for the Boston Celtics. With the talent she's amassing, I would guess Duke will be able to challenge for an ACC title sooner rather than later.

This game will be a huge challenge for UT. Losing Noveroske will hurt, given Duke's size. Having the game at Savage will help, as will the fact that it is early in the season and all their new pieces will not have had that much time to gel yet. On the other hand, UT will not have much film to scout. So, I think it will be very difficult for UT to pull out a win, but that's what everyone thought in 2001 too, when Duke was the #5 team in the country. So I am gonna be optimistic and hope UT will be able rise to the occasion and win a tight game versus the Blue Devils. Maybe Q can take over the game like she did against Marquette when she dropped 37.

Game 5: Penn State @Daytona Beach, 1:15PM, Nov 25

Conference: Big Ten
21-22 Record: 11-18
21-22 NET: 130

All-Time UT Record: 1st Meeting

In their 1st ever meeting against PSU, Toledo faces a team that finished near the bottom of the Big10 last season. Offensively they were pretty good, but they were in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in several defensive categories, including points allowed, assists allowed and 3FG% defense. And despite being a pretty tall team, they were last in the B10 in rebounding. Granted, they were playing a bunch of high power B10 teams, but they also lost to Kent State 81-74 on a neutral floor at the Gulf Coast Showcase. Kent's 81 points there was their third most last year, only scoring more against bad EMU & Miami teams.

PSU returns about 65% of their production, including leading scorer Makenna Marisa (22 pts) who was the 2nd leading scorer in the B10 and a preseason All-B10 selection this year. They added some pieces from the portal, including East Carolina's leading scorer Taniyah Thompson (18 pts) and 2 other DI transfers. They also bring in JUCO national Freshman of the year Ivane Tensaie from North Dakota St School of Science (20 pts, 5 ast). A surprise on the roster is the return of former All-B10 center, Johnasia Cash (13 pts, 9 reb in '20-21) who had reportedly declared for the portal last year, but it seems never transferred, sat out the year, and is back with the team. She should help shore up the poor rebounding last season.

PSU's offense will definitely challenge the UT defense, but baring some huge unexpected defensive improvement by the Nittany Lions, UT should be able to score, if they play up to their potential. Will be a close game, I think, but this is the kind of game UT needs to win if they want to get noticed for postseason bids.

Game 6: UT Arlington @Daytona Beach, 1:15PM, Nov 26

Conference: Sun Belt
21-22 Record: 20-8
21-22 NET: 122

All-Time Record: 1st Meeting

UTA is coming off a tremendous season, going 20-8, finishing 2nd in the Sun Belt, winning the conference tourney, and pushing Iowa State in the NCAA 1st round (UTA led at the half). This other 'UT' played a pretty weak schedule in the Belt, but beat top 100 teams USF (24-9, NET 42), UNLV (NET 75) and Houston (NET 77) in OOC play. They were a very poor 3 point shooting team (310th in 3FGM) taking very few and also shooting a poor percentage. But they more than made up for it by getting to the line an amazing 20 times per game (17th nationally). They were also in the top 30 for fewest turnovers committed. Defensively they were top 30 in 3FG% defense, but got out-rebounded by 2 boards per game, and were 316th nationally in offensive boards allowed.

They lost a lot to graduation, returning only 46% of their production, but do return leading scorer 6'2 F Starr Jacobs (21 pts, 6 reb) who was the Sun Belt POY. And they added a couple good pieces from the portal, including Arkansas State G Jireh Washington and SMU G Kayla White (combined 25 pts, 6 reb). All-in-all they add 8 new players, including 5 freshmen, mostly all guards. They would project to continue to be a poor 3-point shooting team, as their returning players & DI transfers combined made less than 3 a game total last year. They are still a tallish roster, averaging over 5'11. UTA is switching conferences this year from the Belt to the WAC, not that it matters to UT in an OOC game.

HC Shereka Wright entering her 3rd season at UTA, and is another coach with an amazing resume. She was Gatorade HS POY, 3-time All-American at Purdue and their 2nd all-time career scorer, played in the WNBA, and comes to UTA after assistant coaching stints at Vanderbilt, Alabama and Texas Tech. The challenge will be to find the new pieces to complement their "Starr" player. UT's challenge will be making someone else beat them besides Jacobs and not getting into foul trouble.

Likely a winnable game for UT, but there are a lot unknowns with so many new faces on the UTA roster. This will be a different team than most UT face and UT will be forced to defend the paint, and avoid foul trouble. Also, this will be the 2nd game in two days for both teams, so depth could play a role, which could give the real 'UT' an advantage.

Game 7: Loyola MD @Baltimore, 11:30AM, Nov 30

Conference: Patriot
21-22 Record: 5-24
21-22 NET: 314

All-Time UT Record: 2-0
Streak: UT 2 wins
Last meeting: UT 75-53 12/11/2021

UT visits Loyola MD which comes off a 5-24 season under 1st year coach Danielle O'Banion. UT played them in December and came away with an easy 22 point victory, despite starting very slowly, and actually trailing at the half. Loyola finished near the very bottom of DI in scoring, averaging only 54 points per game. Defensively they were actually pretty good, holding opponents to under 62, but they played a very weak schedule, and with no scoring the strong defense didn't seem to matter.

The Greyhounds return more than 80% of their production - the most of any UT opponent - and 4 starters. including Lex Therien who was named Patriot League & ECAC Rookie of the year. She averaged 12 pts and 10 reb, and against UT she put up 10 and 7. Their leading scorer against UT, Charia Roberts, has since transferred to Coppin State. They didn't add any incoming transfers at all, but did add 4 HS recruits and 2 internationals, both from Spain. However, unless more than one of the new recruits is an immediate impact player, it's hard to imagine they will be hugely improved from last year.

Their HC is Danielle O'Banion, who some old-timers may remember as the former HC at Kent State, bridging the time between MAC legend Bob Lindsay (418 wins) and current coach Starkey. Her record at Kent was abysmal, going 21-98 in 4 seasons, although to give her some credit, she was under cancer treatment some of her time there, which had to be difficult. Since then she has been an assistant at Memphis & Minnesota. Minnesota's record actually worsened substantially during her tenure there, but you can't blame that all on a single assistant. Bottom line, she's going to have to actually start winning as a HC before one can come to expect much from her teams.

Last year UT scored 21 more points than the Greyhounds allowed on average, and don't see any reason for that to change this time. I expect another easy victory for the Rockets, with maybe some time for UT players to do some site seeing in DC while they are there.

(10-18-2022 07:13 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Game 7: Loyola MD @Baltimore, 11:30AM, Nov 30

Conference: Patriot
21-22 Record: 5-24
21-22 NET: 314

All-Time UT Record: 2-0
Streak: UT 2 wins
Last meeting: UT 75-53 12/11/2021

UT visits Loyola MD which comes off a 5-24 season under 1st year coach Danielle O'Banion. UT played them in December and came away with an easy 22 point victory, despite starting very slowly, and actually trailing at the half. Loyola finished near the very bottom of DI in scoring, averaging only 54 points per game. Defensively they were actually pretty good, holding opponents to under 62, but they played a very weak schedule, and with no scoring the strong defense didn't seem to matter.

The Greyhounds return more than 80% of their production - the most of any UT opponent - and 4 starters. including Lex Therien who was named Patriot League & ECAC Rookie of the year. She averaged 12 pts and 10 reb, and against UT she put up 10 and 7. Their leading scorer against UT, Charia Roberts, has since transferred to Coppin State. They didn't add any incoming transfers at all, but did add 4 HS recruits and 2 internationals, both from Spain. However, unless more than one of the new recruits is an immediate impact player, it's hard to imagine they will be hugely improved from last year.

Their HC is Danielle O'Banion, who some old-timers may remember as the former HC at Kent State, bridging the time between MAC legend Bob Lindsay (418 wins) and current coach Starkey. Her record at Kent was abysmal, going 21-98 in 4 seasons, although to give her some credit, she was under cancer treatment some of her time there, which had to be difficult. Since then she has been an assistant at Memphis & Minnesota. Minnesota's record actually worsened substantially during her tenure there, but you can't blame that all on a single assistant. Bottom line, she's going to have to actually start winning as a HC before one can come to expect much from her teams.

Last year UT scored 21 more points than the Greyhounds allowed on average, and don't see any reason for that to change this time. I expect another easy victory for the Rockets, with maybe some time for UT players to do some site seeing in DC while they are there.

Damn…. Whew!… I’m blown away NC.. kudos to you.. I’m just starting to digest your awesome effort and insightful input. Let me read and I’ll come back with some comments/questions.

I’m also very excited for 22-23. Got my season tickets in section 109

Thanks!

One quick one… how big a loss is Nevoroske in your opinion?

Go rockets!

(10-18-2022 09:40 PM)IamN2daRockets! Wrote:  Damn…. Whew!… I’m blown away NC.. kudos to you.. I’m just starting to digest your awesome effort and insightful input. Let me read and I’ll come back with some comments/questions.

I’m also very excited for 22-23. Got my season tickets in section 109

Thanks!

One quick one… how big a loss is Nevoroske in your opinion?

Go rockets!

Thanks. There's just really nowhere for a WBB fan to go to get info like this, so I tried to fill in some of the gaps. More to come.

Losing Noveroske will hurt, but how much will be opponent-dependent. Against some teams she wouldn't play much, if at all anyway (played 4 minutes against Marquette, for example) because the matchup is bad - usually when playing against a quick mobile post who can stretch the floor. Will hurt a lot against some of the OOC opponents like UM and Duke, just because they have huge front lines. Her best matchup last year was Kent, where she could play opposite Nila Blackford and just completely dominated her. But, Blackford is gone from the MAC this year.

Of course, it also hurts the depth, as she could always give 10 minutes and 5 fouls in any game that needed her. But the addition of Brewer helps with that. Although Lonasia is a bit undersized for a 5, I'm sure she can fill in there when needed and has the advantage that she can step out and stretch the floor. Also, hopefully Cook will be able to stay on the floor longer this year, and will stay out of foul trouble most games.

Game 8: Missouri State @Savage, 1PM, Dec 4

Conference: MVC
21-22 Record: 24-8
21-22 NET: 44

All-Time UT Record: 0-2
Streak: MSU 2 wins
Last meeting: MSU 60-46 12/21/2021

Missouri State is a team in transition, having lost their outstanding coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton (74-15 in 3 seasons) to Virginia. The new coach, Beth Cunningham, was an assistant at Duke and before that Notre Dame before taking the MSU job. She also has head coaching experience at VCU where she posted a 167-115 record in 9 seasons. She has a rebuild on her hands at MSU, losing 70% of last year's production and 4 starters. Only 6 players return and only 1 of those was a significant contributor to last year's 25-8 team. Last year, MSU soundly beat a tired UT team 60-46, just after UT played SIUE who had pressed them for 40 minutes. UT shot an abysmal 28% in a game that Q did not score at all. Don't expect UT to repeat that performance this year.

5-11 SR G Sydney Harris is that lone returning starter, who averaged 10 pts and 6 boards. Against UT she put up 9 and 10. No other player who scored against UT returns. They add 7 newcomers including 3 DI transfers, 1 JUCO, and 3 freshman recruits. Transfers include former Dayton Flyer G Capria Brown (1 pt last year) (who UT recruited) but who had been a bit player there in 2 seasons. The most notable transfer is GR G Aniya Thomas from Kansas who averaged 8 pts and 2 reb there. JUCO F Indya Green comes from Moberly Area CC (MO) where she averaged 19 points and 11 boards and was a JUCO All-American. Like all the other JUCO players mentioned, she can be a difference maker, if she adapts to DI ball.

Very difficult to predict what this team will look like. They will only have had a month of games to try to get all the new pieces to function as a team, but they have a very experienced coach to try to do it. I suspect they will not be the suffocating defensive team that MSU was in recent years, but who really knows at this point. Having the game at Savage gives UT a big advantage, and the Rockets should be able to come away with their 1st ever win over the Bears, but it is hard to say right now until we see what MSU really has this year.

Game 9: Michigan @Ann Arbor, TBA, Dec 8

Conference: Big Ten
21-22 Record: 25-7
21-22 NET: 17

All-Time Record: 7-11
Streak: UM 3 wins
Last meeting: UM 74-58 3/23/2015
Last UT win: 61-55 11/26/2005

Michigan finished 3rd in the B10 last year, behind OSU and Iowa, but lost in the 1st round of the conference tourney to Nebraska. They turned it around in the NCAAs though, making it all the way to the Elite 8 where they lost to a #1 seeded Louisville. They did this mostly behind All-American C Naz Hillmon who averaged 21 pts and 9 reb. UM played 3 common opponents of UT last year, demolishing Akron 93-54, comfortably beating CMU 69-45 and beating Oakland, not as convincingly, 69-58 (UT beat Oakland 84-72.) They were a monster rebounding team (3rd in the nation with a +10 margin) and top 20 in shooting percentage overall, although only average from three.

Hillmon has graduated, along with starting PG Danielle Rauch, taking 40% of UM's production with them. Although they have plenty of other talented players, those are some big shoes to fill this year. Top returning scorers are 5th year G Leigha Brown (10 pts) who is a preseason All-B10 selection, 6'3 SR F Emily Kiser (9 pts and 8 reb) and SR G Maddie Nolan (9 pts, 4 reb). They did not add that much in the off season - 1 DI transfer, Greta Kampschroeder from Oregon State (5 pts) and 3 freshman. The most heralded FR is 6'2 F Alyssa Crockett, from Westfield, IN who is ranked the #48 recruit in the nation by ESPN.

Michigan is an extremely tall team with a roster average height of 6'1 (only 3 players under 6') and so will definitely be a tough match-up for UT, especially with Noveroske out. That being said, it's hard to imagine they can just replace Hillmon and Rauch without any dip in performance. So it is possible this could be a somewhat down year. They were picked to finish 5th in the B10 in the preseason coach's poll, and not in the top 5 in the media poll. I suspect, though, that they won't be down all that much. Oakland gave them a game last year, and actually won the last 3 quarters, in large part by forcing 21 UM turnovers. Hillmon's 25 points and 11 boards were the main difference in that game, along with UM's nearly +20 rebound margin. I don't think they are invincible without Hillmon, and if there is a year to get them, this may be it while they try to find a way to replace their All-American.

I don't give UT a great shot at a win in Ann Arbor (would be different in Savage,) but the chance is certainly not zero. Need to play great D, force UM into turnovers (that was not a UT strength last year,) hold their own on the boards, and shoot the three well.

Game 10: Dayton @Savage, 2PM, Dec 11

Conference: A10
21-22 Record: 26-6
21-22 NET: 43

All-Time Record: 11-16
Streak: Dayton 3 wins
Last meeting: Dayton 69-60 11/17/2021
Last UT win: 68-50 11/22/2017

Look up the definition of "team in transition," and you may see "Dayton" in the dictionary. They were already scheduled to graduate a huge amount of production, but when coach Shauna Green took the job at Illinois, it was all-hands abandon ship and what was left quickly walked out the door. They return only 4 players and a measly 7% of last year's production - that's even less than Buffalo held onto. Those 4 players contributed 6 points in the UT game last season. So there's really no point in discussing anything about last year's performance, as this will be an entirely new team.

So, what did they add? Well, not as much as you might expect (again, Buffalo seemed to do a lot better.) They added 4 DI transfers, the most accomplished of which is former Ball State Cardinal, Sydney Freeman (11 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast,) who I have to believe is uncontested as starting PG now. They add a F from Indiana St who scored 6 pts last year, and two players from good P5 programs, Maryland and Ohio State, who contributed very little in 2 seasons each at those schools. They also add 3 freshman, including one recruit they held onto from Green's class, a 6'1 W out of Texas, and G Nayo Lear who had an offer from UT as well as an early one from Penn State. The other FR was getting DIII offers, as near as I can tell, before committing to Dayton.

The new coach is Dayton-native Tamika Williams-Jeter, another coach with an amazing resume (UConn star, WNBA player, assistant coach with multiple P5 programs (OSU, PSU, Kentucky),) but only 1 year as a HC at DIII Wittenberg. So, she may have the ability to bring Dayton back to prominence, but it's hard to imagine doing that this year with what she has to work with. There are only 11 players on the roster, so they are unlikely to be deep and may therefore be susceptible to an up tempo game. Some of the returning players, like perhaps Shannon Wheeler (who had an offer from UT) will likely step up and contribute much more, but they need 6 or more players to do that to build around Freeman, not just 1 or 2. The HC will be a miracle-worker in my mind if she manages a winning record this year. But again, can't say for sure, because this team will be a complete mystery until they actually start playing games. In the A10 preseason poll, UD was predicted to finish 10th out of 15 teams.

So, UT should be able to get some revenge against UD this year, if they play like they are capable of for a full 40 minutes (that has been an issue in past UD games.) Sydney Freeman does have a record of going crazy against UT in some games though, so the Rockets need to hold her in check too.

Game 11: Oakland @Savage, 7PM, Dec 21

Conference: Horizon
21-22 Record: 15-15
21-22 NET: 225

All-Time Record: 5-7 (5-1 post-1985)
Streak: UT 4 wins
Last meeting: UT 84-72 11/9/2021
Last Oakland win: 76-60 12/5/2006

Well, here's another team that appears to be in shambles this year. For unknown reasons, they had a mass exodus in the transfer portal with 10 players leaving or graduating, so they only return about 30% of last year's production. Gone also is associate HC (and former UT Rocket) Ke'Sha Blanton, who took a job with Castro at EMU this year, again for unknown reasons. Perhaps the two are related and the player exodus happened after the coach leaving, or vice versa. UT beat them by 12 last year at their place in the opening game of the season, and UT has improved a lot since then, while Oakland, well it does not appear that they have so much.

OU loses leading scorer Kahlaijah Dean, and most of the other starters, save Breanne Beatty (10 pts, 5 reb) who returns for her senior year. None of the other returning players averaged more than 4 points or more than 2 rebounds, and none played in more than 19 games (out of 30). They signed 4 DI transfers, 2 HS recruits and 1 international from Spain (what's with all the Spanish players?) But again, none of the transfers stand out as obvious difference-makers, with the 4 transfers combined scoring 11 pts and pulling down 9 boards last year and shooting on average <35% (not from three, but overall - yikes.) Since OU lost more than 40 pts in the players who left, that leaves a large gap still to make up. Multiple players will need to make big leaps this year for OU to even be competitive.

Jeff Tungate is going into his 10th season as HC at OU, and surprisingly last year's 15-15 mark ties the 2nd best season in his tenure - although he missed much of the season on medical leave. So Blanton was really the de facto HC last year, and should be credited with getting them to .500. But, she doesn't return, so that doesn't bode well either. Their last winning season was '16-17 when they finished 18-12. Hard to be optimistic that they are gonna break that string this year either with a mostly unproven roster.

I expect a comfortable win by UT where they can (hopefully) rest the starters in this last OOC game before conference play starts. Although, they have a long 2 week layoff between this game and MAC play starting Jan 4, so any rest won't really matter much.

That's all the OOC opponents.

4 easy wins (WSU, Canisius, Loyola, Oakland)
3 should be wins, but there could be danger (Cinci, MSU, Dayton)
2 toss ups (PSU, UTA)
2 very tough opponents that will be hard to defeat (Duke, Michigan)

(10-23-2022 10:28 AM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  That's all the OOC opponents.

4 easy wins (WSU, Canisius, Loyola, Oakland)
3 should be wins, but there could be danger (Cinci, MSU, Dayton)
2 toss ups (PSU, UTA)
2 very tough opponents that will be hard to defeat (Duke, Michigan)

Cullop designed this schedule with the idea of getting an at-large NCAA bid. To do that, you have to not only play good teams, but beat them. Last year, we played a couple of good teams but lost. We will need to beat either Duke or Michigan (or both), while winning our other OOC games.

I'm told by someone who has seen a few practices that the Long Beach State transfer, Justina King, is a "player," and should help the team. I just wish she had a few more inches to go along with her skills.

(10-24-2022 05:13 PM)Młot Polski Wrote:  I'm told by someone who has seen a few practices that the Long Beach State transfer, Justina King, is a "player," and should help the team. I just wish she had a few more inches to go along with her skills.

Dzien dobry & welcome to the board!

Nearly 1300 point scorer at LBSU, and multiple-year all-conference, and all-defensive selection in the Big West, so yeah she was a great get. She should be the backup PG to Wiard, and a defensive guard add that can rotate with Goss and Jansen, so her height is right in line with all those players.

There are some highlights of hers posted in the WBB recruiting thread.

Michigan is #25 in the AP preseason WBB poll. Duke received 2 votes. No love for Toledo.

WBB season starts today with the exhibition against Ferris State. So, let's keep the preview thread going by looking a the MAC teams.

The way I see it, there are 4 tiers of teams this year, with maybe some fuzziness in tiers 2&3, but 1 and 4 seem reasonably clear. Although I was pretty wrong last year, as were the MAC preseason polls, so you never know. Likely one or two teams will surprise on the upside and one or two will disappoint on the downside. Here are the tiers I have:

Tier 1: Toledo, Ball State, Bowling Green
Tier 2: Kent, NIU
Tier 3: Akron, Buffalo, Ohio, WMU
Tier 4: CMU, EMU, Miami

Let's look at the teams, starting with tier 4 and work our way up.

Central Michigan:

21-22 Record: 4-25, 2-18 MAC
21-22 NET: 287
21-22 Finish: 12th
NET PtPerPoss: -0.183 (12th)

Production lost: 26%
Starts Lost: 23%
Key Losses:
Molly Davis (20%) Transfer to Iowa

@UT: 74-49 Lockett 24 pts & 12 reb
@CMU: 76-52 Wiard 14 pts, Mikonowicz 12 reb, Wiard 8 ast

CMU was the worst team by almost every measure last season, including scoring the fewest points (59) and giving up the most (83). Toledo beat them twice, both by 20+ points. CMU was the worst shooting team and one of the worst in defending the three. On top of that, Molly Davis, their only really productive guard has transferred to Iowa, and their entire 2021 recruiting class joined her in the portal. Overall CMU lost 26% of their (very limited) production and 23% of their starts to transfer and graduation. They return only 6 players, 4 of them freshmen.

Coach Oesterle must be under the gun, one would think. She is on contract for 2 more seasons, which is highly incentive-laden (most of which she didn't achieve this year,) and has a $250K buyout. One bad season is likely not a make-it-or-break-it year for her, but one might think she needs to turn things around quickly or else the spector of Sue Guevara's success will hang over her and make it tough to justify an extension.

In the off-season CMU added a lot of height through the transfer portal, in three 6'1-6'5 players, but not a single one played last season (due to injuries and other reasons.) So it's hard to tell what they'll bring to CMU. They also added a 5th year PG who was a bit player for a poor SIUE team. She may provide some senior leadership but is not likely to be an impact player. They still have their outstanding post Jahari Smith (12 pts, 10 reb) coming back for her 5th year. She contributed an astounding 31% of the team production last year and IMO should have been 2nd-team all-MAC. If she has to carry that much of the load again this year, CMU is in big troube. Beyond that, there is not much proven production. They bring in three freshman including 6'0 F Sydney Harris who was 1st team all-Illinois, and recruited by some top 100 schools. The player CMU fans seem most excited about is 5'7 PG Bridget Utberg, who was 1st team all-Georgia in their biggest division. She was not widely recruited tho, with her only other good DI offer from Delaware. I guess CMU saw something that the southern schools all missed. She will have the opportunity to take the reins from day one I suspect.

Of course, last year's four freshman got a lot of experience and could all make big improvements with a season under their belts. If they do I think there is enough to lift the Chips out of the MAC cellar, but probably not very far, barring some immense production from several of the newcomers.