For giggles -- lets see who is the best prognosticator for the Federal results.

House -- Repubs take it with 224, a net +12 gain.

Senate -- Dems hold AZ, GA. Reps flip NV. Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
End up with a 50/50 split.

Close 2nd
Dems hold AZ, GA, NV (by a hair). Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
51/49 Dems for the Senate.

GA seemed to me to be that pathway (with NV) to get a Senate R majority. Walker has never been a strong candidate, and this latest kerfluffle didnt help him.

For the life of me I cant understand how PA might roll with Fetterman -- the guy's stroke really Ko'ed him. But that is what the numbers seem to say, that is the PA folks dont mind sending this guy who is obviously impaired to the US Senate

House: GOP ends with 234
Senate: GOP wins slim majority with 52.

Pennsylvania and Georgia go red. Masters loses by 2-3%.

Its just that they hate Oz that much, I sometimes wonder if McCormick would fare better but I think no.

(10-13-2022 10:15 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  House: GOP ends with 234
Senate: GOP wins slim majority with 52.

Pennsylvania and Georgia go red. Masters loses by 2-3%.

What is the other state to get flipped? NV, I assume? The Pennsylvania seat is currently help by Toomey, a Republican, so that one isnt a flip.

(10-13-2022 10:09 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  For giggles -- lets see who is the best prognosticator for the Federal results.

House -- Repubs take it with 224, a net +12 gain.

Senate -- Dems hold AZ, GA. Reps flip NV. Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
End up with a 50/50 split.

Close 2nd
Dems hold AZ, GA, NV (by a hair). Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
51/49 Dems for the Senate.

GA seemed to me to be that pathway (with NV) to get a Senate R majority. Walker has never been a strong candidate, and this latest kerfluffle didnt help him.

For the life of me I cant understand how PA might roll with Fetterman -- the guy's stroke really Ko'ed him. But that is what the numbers seem to say, that is the PA folks dont mind sending this guy who is obviously impaired to the US Senate

I say Dems hold GA, Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Reps flip AZ, NV, and PA
52/48 Reps

Herschel will take GA by 10 points or more.

I don't know about anything else.

(10-13-2022 10:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2022 10:15 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  House: GOP ends with 234
Senate: GOP wins slim majority with 52.

Pennsylvania and Georgia go red. Masters loses by 2-3%.

What is the other state to get flipped? NV, I assume? The Pennsylvania seat is currently help by Toomey, a Republican, so that one isnt a flip.

Battlegrounds:
Safe Red: Ohio, Florida
Likely Red: Wisconsin, NC
Lean Red: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia
Lean Blue: Arizona
Likely Blue: Colorado, New Hampshire

52-48

GOP takes NV & WI.
Dems take PA
Split GA & AZ

The governorships follow the Senate, except GA b/c Stacy is apparently just that terrible.

GOP will make gains but not as much as they should due to the SCOTUS RvW decision. It's going to energize some Dem. voters that otherwise might not give a damn about politics.

My prediction for the morning after election day...PAIN.

(10-13-2022 10:09 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  House -- Repubs take it with 224, a net +12 gain.

Senate -- Dems hold AZ, GA. Reps flip NV. Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
End up with a 50/50 split.

Close 2nd
Dems hold AZ, GA, NV (by a hair). Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
51/49 Dems for the Senate.

I readily admit, I have no idea how the elections will turn out. But if the result is that ^^^, it would be an historic victory for the Democrats, and a powerful sign that the American people are very content with the status quo. Biden would be in great shape for 2024 if that happens.

(10-13-2022 11:48 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  My prediction for the morning after election day...PAIN.

Rocky III is perhaps my guiltiest guilty pleasure movie of all time.

(10-13-2022 11:59 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-13-2022 11:48 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  My prediction for the morning after election day...PAIN.

Rocky III is perhaps my guiltiest guilty pleasure movie of all time.

I pity the fool!

(10-13-2022 11:56 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-13-2022 10:09 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  House -- Repubs take it with 224, a net +12 gain.

Senate -- Dems hold AZ, GA. Reps flip NV. Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
End up with a 50/50 split.

Close 2nd
Dems hold AZ, GA, NV (by a hair). Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
51/49 Dems for the Senate.

I readily admit, I have no idea how the elections will turn out. But if the result is that ^^^, it would be an historic victory for the Democrats, and a powerful sign that the American people are very content with the status quo. Biden would be in great shape for 2024 if that happens.

I dont like the result I come to in the Senate. But I just dont see Walker winning, or AZ coming through.

Walker was gaining some traction, but honestly, he is not a great 'election' candidate in the first place. Walker literally got caught with his pants down on the abortion 'gotcha', then continued to fumble (and still does) with obviously not-so-honest answers.

In AZ, my comment is that it is too bad that Lake is not running for the Senate seat. She would have been a far better choice to flip that seat.

The only flip I see for the Rs is NV, and that will be a neck and neck race.

And Oz has been ineffectual against Fetterman, even with the obvious disability from the stroke there. Oz needs a giant surge for the Rs to hold that seat.

PA in all likelihood gets a D flip. If Rs flip NV, they cancel. If they dont, Ds have a one seat advantage.

Tanq, it all may go exactly as you’ve described here. I’m not knocking it. But that would be a cataclysmic disaster for the GOP, if it does happen.

(10-13-2022 12:32 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Tanq, it all may go exactly as you’ve described here. I’m not knocking it. But that would be a cataclysmic disaster for the GOP, if it does happen.

I think you meant the country as a ‘whole’ … if the GOP loses the senate this merry-go-round, 2 more years will be more than ample time to fuxxor the constitution and this once great republic to its’ core…

welcome to the 21st century in the last fully developed land mass…

(10-13-2022 12:23 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2022 11:56 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-13-2022 10:09 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  House -- Repubs take it with 224, a net +12 gain.

Senate -- Dems hold AZ, GA. Reps flip NV. Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
End up with a 50/50 split.

Close 2nd
Dems hold AZ, GA, NV (by a hair). Reps hold WI, NC, OH. Dems flip PA
51/49 Dems for the Senate.

I readily admit, I have no idea how the elections will turn out. But if the result is that ^^^, it would be an historic victory for the Democrats, and a powerful sign that the American people are very content with the status quo. Biden would be in great shape for 2024 if that happens.

I dont like the result I come to in the Senate. But I just dont see Walker winning, or AZ coming through.

Walker was gaining some traction, but honestly, he is not a great 'election' candidate in the first place. Walker literally got caught with his pants down on the abortion 'gotcha', then continued to fumble (and still does) with obviously not-so-honest answers.

In AZ, my comment is that it is too bad that Lake is not running for the Senate seat. She would have been a far better choice to flip that seat.

The only flip I see for the Rs is NV, and that will be a neck and neck race.

And Oz has been ineffectual against Fetterman, even with the obvious disability from the stroke there. Oz needs a giant surge for the Rs to hold that seat.

PA in all likelihood gets a D flip. If Rs flip NV, they cancel. If they dont, Ds have a one seat advantage.

I am skeptical of 2 things with regard to conventional wisdom on some of these races:

1. Frequency of polling. Last poll released for PA was for the period of 9/27 to 9/30. The last 2 weeks have been pretty bad for Fetterman. You can't tell me no polls have been conducted since then. Where are the results?

2. ~20 point margins of error. For instance, the above mention poll shows Fetterman up 46-40. Yeah, I know, it says the margin of error is 4.4 points. However, my math shows 46 + 40 = 86. So what about the other 14? The real Margin of Error here is 18.4 points.

If the media and consulting class wasn't so obviously in the tank for one side, I'd agree with you, but I think they are hiding something. I do think the dems hold Georgia though. Walker has been particularly bad and Georgia polling has actually been decent over the years.

House: Uniparty
Senate: Uniparty

..and you will keep on like it...

(10-13-2022 12:43 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  House: Uniparty
Senate: Uniparty

..and you will keep on liking it...

to the historical ‘former’, I would have agreed in the past … today?!?!! … not this time…

the latter is about how one has the capacity to deal with the consequences ‘if donk (WEF)’

@notAprettyPicture

Who knows....

- You can't trust the polls
- You can't trust the media
- You can't trust any of the candidates
- You can't even trust anyone "calling it" until 100% of the votes are counted like they are all in such a rush to do.

I will worry about it on about the 15th of November (or so)