Bowl Eligible Teams as of October 8 Games:

Is Air Force ineligible due to probation?

Crazy how fast the season is going by.

(10-09-2022 01:21 PM)ken d Wrote:  Is Air Force ineligible due to probation?

Air Force isn’t eligible (yet) because they only have 4 wins so far.

(10-09-2022 01:58 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(10-09-2022 01:21 PM)ken d Wrote:  Is Air Force ineligible due to probation?

Air Force isn’t eligible (yet) because they only have 4 wins so far.

But the question was will they be eligible if they get to 6 wins or does their probation include a bowl ban?

EDIT: They will be allowed to play in a bowl if they qualify. They currently have 5 wins, so their chances are good.

The current list according to Wikipedia:

ACC (4): Clemson, North Carolina, Syracuse, Wake Forest
American (2): Cincinnati, Tulane
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big 12 (1): TCU
C-USA (1): UTSA
MAC (0):
Mountain West (0):
Pac-12 (3): Oregon, UCLA, USC
SEC (5): Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Sun Belt (2): Coastal Carolina, Troy
Independent (1): Liberty

(10-23-2022 06:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  The current list according to Wikipedia:

ACC (4): Clemson, North Carolina, Syracuse, Wake Forest
American (2): Cincinnati, Tulane
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big 12 (1): TCU
C-USA (1): UTSA
MAC (0):
Mountain West (0):
Pac-12 (3): Oregon, UCLA, USC
SEC (5): Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Sun Belt (2): Coastal Carolina, Troy
Independent (1): Liberty

I also show Washington, Oregon State and Oklahoma State as being eligible. These were late games that probably finished after Wikipedia went to bed.

Ineligible so far include Akron and Charlotte with 7 losses, and James Madison (FCS transition).

(10-23-2022 07:19 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-23-2022 06:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  The current list according to Wikipedia:

ACC (4): Clemson, North Carolina, Syracuse, Wake Forest
American (2): Cincinnati, Tulane
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big 12 (1): TCU
C-USA (1): UTSA
MAC (0):
Mountain West (0):
Pac-12 (3): Oregon, UCLA, USC
SEC (5): Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Sun Belt (2): Coastal Carolina, Troy
Independent (1): Liberty

I also show Washington, Oregon State and Oklahoma State as being eligible. These were late games that probably finished after Wikipedia went to bed.

Ineligible so far include Akron and Charlotte with 7 losses, and James Madison (FCS transition).

Don't know when they updated. Oklahoma State played in the afternoon so that seems strange.

Despite having only two games in Week 9 (due to transitioning to #MACtion), the MAC will almost certainly get their first bowl eligible team next week, since 5-3 Toledo at 5-3 EMU is one of those two games.

(10-23-2022 12:15 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Despite having only two games in Week 9 (due to transitioning to #MACtion), the MAC will almost certainly get their first bowl eligible team next week, since 5-3 Toledo at 5-3 EMU is one of those two games.

And the other two five win teams (Buffalo and Ohio) play each other the following week. The MAC put itself behind the eight ball with only 18 OOC wins (including FCS wins) by its 12 teams. That doesn't leave much of a margin for error. The best the league can average is 5 1/2 wins per member.

(10-23-2022 01:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-23-2022 12:15 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Despite having only two games in Week 9 (due to transitioning to #MACtion), the MAC will almost certainly get their first bowl eligible team next week, since 5-3 Toledo at 5-3 EMU is one of those two games.

And the other two five win teams (Buffalo and Ohio) play each other the following week. The MAC put itself behind the eight ball with only 18 OOC wins (including FCS wins) by its 12 teams. That doesn't leave much of a margin for error. The best the league can average is 5 1/2 wins per member.

On the other hand, Akron seems to be taking one for the MAC's bowl chances on an almost weekly basis (thanks for the Wagon Wheel win, Akron, we might not have got that win in a week with a first start freshmen QB from any other MAC school!). Spreading the wins around and concentrating the losses is part of the formula for getting more bowl eligible schools.

Teams that are 5-2 (8 teams): Odds of winning 6 or more according to ESPN Power Index (100% = 99.5% or greater). Expectation 7.92 teams
Boise State 100%
K-State 97%
Kentucky 99%
NC State 100%
South Carolina 96%
South Alabama 100%
UCF 100%
Utah 100%

5-3 (13 teams). Expectation 12.44 teams
AFA 100%
Buffalo 100%
Duke 98%
Eastern Michigan 91%
Georgia Southern 92%
Kansas 72%
Mississippi State 100%
Ohio 95%
Purdue 100%
Texas 100%
Toledo 100%
Western Kentucky 100%
Wyoming 96%

4-3 (20 teams). Expectation 16.41 teams.
Appalachian State 99%
Arkansas 78%
Baylor 79%
Florida 75%
Florida State 98%
Houston 98%
Louisiana 82%
Louisville 80%
Marshall 89%
Minnesota 99%
Notre Dame 93%
Oklahoma 73%
Pittsburgh 82%
Rice 86%
Rutgers 11%
San Diego State 76%
Texas Tech 83%
UAB 94%
USM 86%
Washington State 80%

4-4 (10 teams) Expectation 7.22 teams.
Ball State 34%
Bowling Green 38%
BYU 83%
East Carolina 99%
Georgia Southern 92%
Memphis 90%
North Texas 73%
UNLV 77%
UTEP 52%
Wisconsin 84%

3-4 (21 teams) Expectation 7.95 teams
Arizona 6%
Army 68%
Auburn 26%
California 8%
Florida International 1%
Fresno State 94%
Georgia Tech 4%
Iowa 55%
Iowa State 52%
Miami(FL) 39%
Michigan State 40%
Middle Tennessee 83%
Missouri 35%
Nebraska 8
Old Dominion 21%
SMU 67%
Stanford 29%
Texas A&M 69%
Tulsa 25%
Virginia 45%
West Virginia 20%

3-5 (9 teams) Expectation 1.72 teams
Connecticut 7%
Florida Atlantic 28%
Indiana 1%
Kent 47%
Miami(OH) 41%
Texas State 14%
Utah State 17%
Vanderbilt 1%
Western Michigan 16%

2-5 (9 teams) Expectation 0.40 teams
Arizona State 14%
Boston College 1%
Colorado State 0%
Georgia State 9%
Louisiana Tech 13%
Navy 1%
New Mexico State 0%
Temple 0%
Virginia Tech 2%

2-6 (7 teams) Expectation 0.28 teams
Arkansas State 7%
Central Michigan 4%
Hawaii 0%
Louisiana-Monroe 0%
Nevada 0%
New Mexico 0%
Northern Illinois 17%

1-6 (4 teams) Expectation 0%.
Colorado 0%
UMass 0%
Northwestern 0%
South Florida 0%

6+ wins 27 teams
No chance of 6 wins 2 teams
Not-determined 101 teams, expectation 54.34

Overall expectation 81.34. 41 bowl games, 82 slots.

This could be an opportunity for James Madison to talk itself into a waiver.

By conference:

BXII 7.75 teams (78% of teams)
SEC 10.79 teams (77% of teams)
ACC 9.48 teams (68%)
B1G 8.98 teams (64%)
AAC 6.80 teams (62%)
SunB 8.00 teams (62%, JMU excluded)
P12 7.37 teams (61%)
CUSA 6.30 teams (57%)
MtW 6.60 teams (55%)
Indies 3.50 teams (50%)
MAC 5.83 teams (49%)

Updated List:

CBS Sports Tracker:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...owl-games/

At the same point in the schedule last year there were also 36 teams eligible. There were 12 already ineligible last year, compared with 9 this year:

Colorado
Northwestern
South Florida
Nevada
Hawaii
Akron
Charlotte
Arkansas State
UMass

After Week 10 last year 19 schools were ineligible. The most we can have this year would be 17, with the following schools possibly eliminated (their opponents in parentheses):

Boston College - Duke (5-3)
Virginia Tech - Georgia Tech (3-5)
Temple - South Florida (1-7)
Colorado State - San Jose State (5-2)
New Mexico - Utah State (3-5)
Northern Illinois - Central Michigan (2-6)
Central Michigan - Northern Illinois (2-6)
Louisiana Tech - Middle Tennessee (4-4)
UL Monroe - Texas State (3-5)

Last year, another 13 schools became eligible in Week 10. This year, 22 schools could become eligible this week, though that's unlikely. They are:

Louisville - James Madison (5-2)
James Madison - Louisville (5-3)
Florida State - Miami (4-4)
Duke - Boston College (2-6)
Texas - Kansas State (6-2)
Oklahoma - Baylor (5-3)
Baylor - Oklahoma (5-3)
Kansas - Oklahoma State (6-2)
Purdue - Iowa (4-4)
Minnesota - Nebraska (3-5)
Kentucky - Missouri (4-4)
South Carolina - Vanderbilt (3-5)
Mississippi - State - Auburn (3-5)
Arkansas - Liberty (7-1)
Houston - SMU (4-4)
Air Force - Army (3-4)
San Jose State - Colorado State (2-6)
Buffalo - Ohio (5-3)
Ohio - Buffalo (5-3)
Western Kentucky - Charlotte (2-7)
North Texas - FIU (4-4)
Southern Miss - Georgia State (3-5)
Appalachian State - Coastal Carolina (7-1)
Georgia Southern - South Alabama (6-2)
Notre Dame - Clemson (8-0)

Based on ESPN Football Power Index Projections.

Teams that have 6 wins (36 teams): Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Eastern Carolina, Tulane, UCF, Oklahoma State, TCU, K-State, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois. UTSA, Liberty, Toledo, Boise State, Wyoming, UCLA, USC, Oregon State, Utah Washington, Oregon, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Coastal Carolina.

Teams that are almost certain to reach 6 wins (99.0% or higher). (12 teams) FSU 99%, Houston 100% (99.5% of higher is rounded to 100%), Texas 99%, Minnesota 100%, Purdue 100%, Western Kentucky 100%, North Texas 99%, Notre Dame 100%, Buffalo 100%, San Jose State 100%, AFA 100%, Mississippi State 100%.

Teams that are highly probable to reach 6 wins (90% <= P(6+) <= 99%): (13 teams) Duke 98%, Louisville 97%, Memphis 90%, Oklahoma 95%, Baylor 94%, Middle Tennessee 92%, Ohio 95%, Fresno State 97%, Kentucky 98%, Arkansas 95%, Appalachian State 99%, Southern Miss 96%, Georgia Southern 93%.

Roughly 64% chance of one failure.

Teams that are likely to reach 6 wins (65% <= P(6+) <= 90%): (14 teams) Pitt 74%, SMU 84%, Kansas 78%, Wisconsin 84%, UAB 81%, Army 68%, Eastern Michigan 89%, UNLV 76%, San Diego State 74%, Washington State 77%, South Carolina 84%, Florida 75%, Missouri 74%, Marshall 73%.

11 (of 14) will probably reach, 71.3 cumulative teams.

Teams that are a coin flip of reaching 6 wins (35% <= P(6+) <= 65%): (11 teams) Miami(FL) 61%, Texas Tech 58%, Iowa 61%, Florida Atlantic 63%, UTEP 38%, BYU 62%, Miami(OH) 58%, Kent 48%, Bowling Green 38%, Texas A&M 55%, Louisana 60%.

6 (of 11) will probably reach, 77.3 cumulative teams.

Teams that are unlikely to reach 6 wins (10% <= P(6+) <= 35%) (15 teams) Virginia 22%, Tulsa 11%, Iowa State 28%, West Virginia 10%, Michigan State 33%, Rice 32%, UConn 25%, Ball State 33%, Western Michigan 16%, Northern Illinois 16%, Utah State 17%, Stanford 18%, Arizona State 14%, Georgia State 19%, Texas State 18%.

3.1 (of 15) will probably reach, 80.4 cumulative.

Teams that are highly improbable to reach 6 wins (1% <= P(6+) <= 10%) (11 teams) Virginia Tech 2%, Georgia Tech 2%, Navy 1%, Rutgers 5%, Nebraska 2%, FIU 8%, Central Michigan 4%, Cal 4%, Arizona 4%, Auburn 6%, Old Dominion 8%.

About 46% chance of one of these making it. 81.1 cumulative.

Teams that are almost certain not to reach 6 wins. (P(6+) <= 1%) (9 teams) Boston College 0%, Temple 0%, Indiana 1%, Louisana Tech 1%, NMSU 0%, New Mexico 0%, Colorado State 0%, Vanderbilt 1%, Louisiana-Monroe 0%.

Teams that cannot reach 6 wins (9 teams) South Florida, Northwestern, Charlotte, UMass, Akron, Hawaii, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas State.

There are 41 bowl games, including the two CFP semifinals. Right now the mean expectation is that 41 of the 82 berths will be filled by 6-win teams. This leave open the possibility of a waiver for JMU to play a bowl game.

(10-24-2022 04:59 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  By conference:

BXII 7.75 teams (78% of teams)
SEC 10.79 teams (77% of teams)
ACC 9.48 teams (68%)
B1G 8.98 teams (64%)
AAC 6.80 teams (62%)
SunB 8.00 teams (62%, JMU excluded)
P12 7.37 teams (61%)
CUSA 6.30 teams (57%)
MtW 6.60 teams (55%)
Indies 3.50 teams (50%)
MAC 5.83 teams (49%)

SEC 10.88 teams (78% of teams)
BXII 7.64 teams (76% of teams)
ACC 9.55 teams (68% of teams)
B1G 8.86 teams (63% of teams)
AAC 6.86 teams (62% of teams)
P12 7.16 teams (60% of teams)
SunB 7.66 teams (59% of teams, JMU excluded)
CUSA 6.13 teams (56% of teams)
MtW 6.64 teams (55% of teams)
Indies 3.55 teams (51% of teams)
MAC 5.96 teams (50% of teams)

If UConn can get the win at home versus UMass Friday night, they are going have a solid chance at going to Army and pulling off a very improbable 6-6 bowl eligible season.

Its ashame they let Ball State game slip through their fingers or else they would be playing for bowl eligibility this weekend.

(10-31-2022 01:00 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  Teams that are highly probable to reach 6 wins (90% <= P(6+) <= 99%): (13 teams) Duke 98%, Louisville 97%, Memphis 90%, Oklahoma 95%, Baylor 94%, Middle Tennessee 92%, Ohio 95%, Fresno State 97%, Kentucky 98%, Arkansas 95%, Appalachian State 99%, Southern Miss 96%, Georgia Southern 93%.

App State actually has to reach 7 wins to become bowl eligible. Marshall and App State were scheduled to play an OOC game against each other this year, but with Marshall moving to the Sun Belt for the 2022 season it left a gap on their schedules with little time to fill it. They both found a second FCS opponent to fill that gap, so they'd both need to reach 7 wins to become bowl eligible.