(10-04-2022 12:31 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:06 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I think UConn has a chance at the ACC once the southern schools are poached by the SEC and/or B10

At a minimum, I think these 5 are likely gone:

FSU
Clemson
NC
NC state
VA

With others likely as well

But just doing a backfill of 9 for 5, to get to 18 (17+1+1)

Boston College
UConn
Temple
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Virginia Tech
Duke
East Carolina
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech

Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis

Miami
UCF
USF

Navy – fb
Notre Dame - non-fb

Why 18? Because I think 2 or more of the above are also likely poached, but it's very debate-able which those would be. So just listing them all.

These additions are are basically either former Big east schools or were on the B12's short list.

I think UConn would seem to fit in here just fine

How many ACC teams are poached by the SEC/B1G is well down the road with the GoR in place until 2036. I predict it won't be challenged until the earliest in 2030 and at the latest 2034.

By then I suspect the B1G will already be at 20 with the additions of Oregon, Washington, and Stanford with the last program being either ND or Cal.

I just don't see the B1G taking any program that isn't AAU (with the exception of ND and quite possibly FSU) - which means the ACC's programs likely to be considered are from amongst UNC, UVA, GT, Duke, and with a possible exception FSU.

As I have theorized in other posts I believe ESPN will fight to keep control of its Southeastern holdings within its two exclusive power conferences the SEC and the ACC.

ESPN/ABC which is under siege by both old (FOX, NBC, CBS) and new (Amazon, possibly Apple) competitors in the sports market as well as parent company Disney under siege by Wall Street who want the Mouse to divest itself of ESPN (which I personally don't see Chapek doing that for at least another decade unless Apple makes them an offer they can't refuse) - will do whatever they have to keep the B1G away from FSU and UNC primarily and by extension Clemson, GT, and UVA.

I am assuming (and I think it's a reasonable if not guaranteed assumption - I have been known to be wrong before) that the B1G will not pursue VT and NC State. But since I don't see ESPN giving the ACC SEC type monies, that means they will have to somehow at minimum facilitate FSU and UNC to the SEC where they can get SEC type $$$ and therefore not in the B1G.

That leaves 2 spots open to get the SEC to 20 (which I believe the B1G will reach that number prior to this) and those 2 programs are likely to be ACC programs. I have proposed those remaining two teams as being UVA and Duke but I readily admit it could just as easily be Clemson and UVA or GT.

Note: Why Duke? - I see the SEC/ESPN as likely going to play the LONG game - just look at the SEC's record in being a head of the curve as far back as when they left the Southern Conference to form the SEC, went down to 10 over time, then expanding to 12 in the 1990s for purposes of a conference title game, expanding again with Texas A&M to get into Texas, and the recent expansion with Texas and OU. As for ESPN its road to become the sports juggernaut is quite a story as well.

I see taking Duke along with UNC to add to the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU ensures the SEC will be a major basketball conference for the time ahead should the NCAA men's bb tourney also fall under the jurisdiction of the Power 2 Conferences. But that is probably a stretch.

Anyway, my apologies for this long-winded post.

Cheers,
Neil

Fair opinion.

I think it's really the question of FSU and possibly travel partners like GT or Miami; and NC plus one or more schools from the VA/NC cluster.

And Clemson as a possibility for the SEC.

How that looks or breaks down, I don't think anyone knows, even the decision-makers. It'll probably be based on the circumstances of the moment.

But I don't think more than 7 total schools are taken from the ACC, and possibly fewer.

And so from there, as I mentioned, I think the rest would be smarter to pick up the pieces of the ACC and move forward, backfilling with the best of the G5 - the B12's shortlist (since they were already vetted), and former big east members.

But again, that'll likely depend on the circumstances of the time.

(10-04-2022 01:30 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 12:31 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:06 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I think UConn has a chance at the ACC once the southern schools are poached by the SEC and/or B10

At a minimum, I think these 5 are likely gone:

FSU
Clemson
NC
NC state
VA

With others likely as well

But just doing a backfill of 9 for 5, to get to 18 (17+1+1)

Boston College
UConn
Temple
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Virginia Tech
Duke
East Carolina
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech

Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis

Miami
UCF
USF

Navy – fb
Notre Dame - non-fb

Why 18? Because I think 2 or more of the above are also likely poached, but it's very debate-able which those would be. So just listing them all.

These additions are are basically either former Big east schools or were on the B12's short list.

I think UConn would seem to fit in here just fine

How many ACC teams are poached by the SEC/B1G is well down the road with the GoR in place until 2036. I predict it won't be challenged until the earliest in 2030 and at the latest 2034.

By then I suspect the B1G will already be at 20 with the additions of Oregon, Washington, and Stanford with the last program being either ND or Cal.

I just don't see the B1G taking any program that isn't AAU (with the exception of ND and quite possibly FSU) - which means the ACC's programs likely to be considered are from amongst UNC, UVA, GT, Duke, and with a possible exception FSU.

As I have theorized in other posts I believe ESPN will fight to keep control of its Southeastern holdings within its two exclusive power conferences the SEC and the ACC.

ESPN/ABC which is under siege by both old (FOX, NBC, CBS) and new (Amazon, possibly Apple) competitors in the sports market as well as parent company Disney under siege by Wall Street who want the Mouse to divest itself of ESPN (which I personally don't see Chapek doing that for at least another decade unless Apple makes them an offer they can't refuse) - will do whatever they have to keep the B1G away from FSU and UNC primarily and by extension Clemson, GT, and UVA.

I am assuming (and I think it's a reasonable if not guaranteed assumption - I have been known to be wrong before) that the B1G will not pursue VT and NC State. But since I don't see ESPN giving the ACC SEC type monies, that means they will have to somehow at minimum facilitate FSU and UNC to the SEC where they can get SEC type $$$ and therefore not in the B1G.

That leaves 2 spots open to get the SEC to 20 (which I believe the B1G will reach that number prior to this) and those 2 programs are likely to be ACC programs. I have proposed those remaining two teams as being UVA and Duke but I readily admit it could just as easily be Clemson and UVA or GT.

Note: Why Duke? - I see the SEC/ESPN as likely going to play the LONG game - just look at the SEC's record in being a head of the curve as far back as when they left the Southern Conference to form the SEC, went down to 10 over time, then expanding to 12 in the 1990s for purposes of a conference title game, expanding again with Texas A&M to get into Texas, and the recent expansion with Texas and OU. As for ESPN its road to become the sports juggernaut is quite a story as well.

I see taking Duke along with UNC to add to the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU ensures the SEC will be a major basketball conference for the time ahead should the NCAA men's bb tourney also fall under the jurisdiction of the Power 2 Conferences. But that is probably a stretch.

Anyway, my apologies for this long-winded post.

Cheers,
Neil

Fair opinion.
I think it's really the question of FSU and possibly travel partners like GT or Miami; and NC plus one or more schools from the VA/NC cluster.

And Clemson as a possibility for the SEC.

How that looks or breaks down, I don't think anyone knows, even the decision-makers. It'll probably be based on the circumstances of the moment.

But I don't think more than 7 total schools are taken from the ACC, and possibly fewer.

And so from there, as I mentioned, I think the rest would be smarter to pick up the pieces of the ACC and move forward, backfilling with the best of the G5 - the B12's shortlist (since they were already vetted), and former big east members.

But again, that'll likely depend on the circumstances of the time.

another poster who should be summarily dismissed ...
just glossed over Miami & Georgia Tech ...
and now we’re supposed to take seriously ...

BELIEVE WHAT YOU WANT

Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

How do you figure 3 schools max? FSU and Kansas to the SEC; and GT and Miami to the B1G. That's about the only way I come up with losing 3 based on what you said. (in which case the ACC should add UCF and stay at 12). 18 teams seems like an odd number to me for the B1G and SEC.

That would be great BTW. I'd love it if the ACC lost 3 or less teams. Preferably zero.

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

Interesting stance. Don't necessarily agree but interested in knowing why you think so. I can be convinced.

Cheers,
Neil

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

From what you are saying, my guess is that you don't think the VA/NC cluster of schools would leave the ACC if invited by the P2?

Interesting position, and you could very well be right.

But any list of "I'm outta here" schools should include Clemson to the SEC, in my opinion.

(10-04-2022 07:50 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

From what you are saying, my guess is that you don't think the VA/NC cluster of schools would leave the ACC if invited by the P2?

Interesting position, and you could very well be right.

But any list of "I'm outta here" schools should include Clemson to the SEC, in my opinion.

I am minority but I don’t think the P2 are that interested in VA/NC schools. I think UNC (and VT!) had a chance to join the SEC as #14 but they decided to stay. FSU really wanted to get an offer from the SEC but the SEC chose Mizzou instead. Clemson didn’t and doesn’t have any chance in my opinion.

(10-04-2022 07:10 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

Interesting stance. Don't necessarily agree but interested in knowing why you think so. I can be convinced.

Cheers,
Neil

The SEC is complete with 16 because there is no one out there that can increase the SEC’s payout.

The next target schools have to generate more viewers/revenue than the average SEC school. And if you think about the average SEC school, that would be A&M/Tenn in terms of football viewership. (Bama, GA, FL, LSU, Auburn, UT and OU are ahead of them and the others are behind them). In other words, the new target school should be better than A&M and Tenn.

Let’s see which ACC/Pac/B12 schools are clearly better than A&M and Tenn? I don’t see any. Clemson/FSU may be similar but not clearly better. Why would the ESPN/SEC need to add two more average schools (for the SEC standard) that are located in their territory? Remember the SEC didn’t invite FSU as their #14 and chose Mizzou instead.

The BIG is different. They are clearly more market driven than the SEC. The ESPN is a nationwide network but the BTN is not. It’s beneficial for the BIG if the BIG adds a team in a major markek and local cable companies in that major market start carrying the BTN.

Below is the media market ranking.
(https://newsgeneration.com/broadcast-res...o-markets/)

1 New York, NY
2 Los Angeles, CA
3 Chicago, IL
4 Philadelphia, PA
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
7 Atlanta
8 Houston, TX
9 Washington (Hagerstown), DC-MD
10 Boston (Manchester)
11 Phoenix (Prescott)
12 Seattle-Tacoma
13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
15 Detroit, MI
16 Denver, CO
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL
18 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA
21 Portland, OR
22 Charlotte, NC
23 St. Louis, MO
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC
25 Indianapolis, IN

With USC/UCLA on board, the BIG will have foothold in #1,#2, #3, #4 and #9. They could have gotten #5 and #8 if UT headed to the BIG. If ND decides to join, then Stanford would be the obvious media pick for #6 market.

If the ACC schools are available, UNC, UVa, and Duke are not good candidates at least for the BTN cable. The BIG already has the cable provider for the Washington DC area, which is the UVa’s biggest market. UNC/Duke’s market would be #22 and #24 and it was reported that #12 seattle market is not strong enough for the BIG to invite UW.

I would say the better candidates are actually GT with #7 Atlanta market and Florida school for #13, #17, and #18 media market.

So the BIG may want to add ND, Stanford, GT, and FSU to become a 20 team national league covering the North, the South, the Midwest, and the West.

(10-04-2022 09:20 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 07:10 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

Interesting stance. Don't necessarily agree but interested in knowing why you think so. I can be convinced.

Cheers,
Neil

The SEC is complete with 16 because there is no one out there that can increase the SEC’s payout.

The next target schools have to generate more viewers/revenue than the average SEC school. And if you think about the average SEC school, that would be A&M/Tenn in terms of football viewership. (Bama, GA, FL, LSU, Auburn, UT and OU are ahead of them and the others are behind them). In other words, the new target school should be better than A&M and Tenn.

Let’s see which ACC/Pac/B12 schools are clearly better than A&M and Tenn? I don’t see any. Clemson/FSU may be similar but not clearly better. Why would the ESPN/SEC need to add two more average schools (for the SEC standard) that are located in their territory? Remember the SEC didn’t invite FSU as their #14 and chose Mizzou instead.

The BIG is different. They are clearly more market driven than the SEC. The ESPN is a nationwide network but the BTN is not. It’s beneficial for the BIG if the BIG adds a team in a major markek and local cable companies in that major market start carrying the BTN.

Below is the media market ranking.
(https://newsgeneration.com/broadcast-res...o-markets/)

1 New York, NY
2 Los Angeles, CA
3 Chicago, IL
4 Philadelphia, PA
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
7 Atlanta
8 Houston, TX
9 Washington (Hagerstown), DC-MD
10 Boston (Manchester)
11 Phoenix (Prescott)
12 Seattle-Tacoma
13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
15 Detroit, MI
16 Denver, CO
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL
18 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA
21 Portland, OR
22 Charlotte, NC
23 St. Louis, MO
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC
25 Indianapolis, IN

With USC/UCLA on board, the BIG will have foothold in #1,#2, #3, #4 and #9. They could have gotten #5 and #8 if UT headed to the BIG. If ND decides to join, then Stanford would be the obvious media pick for #6 market.

If the ACC schools are available, UNC, UVa, and Duke are not good candidates at least for the BTN cable. The BIG already has the cable provider for the Washington DC area, which is the UVa’s biggest market. UNC/Duke’s market would be #22 and #24 and it was reported that #12 seattle market is not strong enough for the BIG to invite UW.

I would say the better candidates are actually GT with #7 Atlanta market and Florida school for #13, #17, and #18 media market.

So the BIG may want to add ND, Stanford, GT, and FSU to become a 20 team national league covering the North, the South, the Midwest, and the West.

Thanks for sharing. I understand your position better. And it certainly is as valid as any other. Time will tell.

Cheers,
Neil

(10-04-2022 09:11 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 07:50 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

From what you are saying, my guess is that you don't think the VA/NC cluster of schools would leave the ACC if invited by the P2?

Interesting position, and you could very well be right.

But any list of "I'm outta here" schools should include Clemson to the SEC, in my opinion.

I am minority but I don’t think the P2 are that interested in VA/NC schools. I think UNC (and VT!) had a chance to join the SEC as #14 but they decided to stay. FSU really wanted to get an offer from the SEC but the SEC chose Mizzou instead. Clemson didn’t and doesn’t have any chance in my opinion.

And it could be a fair argument to say that that ship sailed with Delaney for the B10 as well.

From a "invite as few schools as possible" standpoint, it really does increase the value for FSU quite a bit for both of the P2

(10-04-2022 09:11 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 07:50 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 03:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 02:25 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's my min/max for the number of teams that end up jumping from the ACC to the SEC:

MIN: Zero. This happens if ESPN decides to build the ACC into the clear #3 conference.
MAX (probably): 4 to 6. This happens if ESPN feels like they cannot protect the ACC as a whole and therefore want to protect certain key brands in the SEC.

Everyone seems to assume the max. I'm not so sure. At any rate, a lot can change in the next 10 years or so...

I see a Minimum of Zero for multiple reasons. 1) ESPN could build up the ACC to a point where there's no financial incentive to leave [very low possibility]. 2) The B1G and SEC make so much more per school that no other schools add money for the existing schools [moderate possibility]. 3) The B1G and SEC decide that 16 schools is barely manageable and don't want to add any more schools [more probable than the other reasons].

Then on the other side I think 8 ACC schools is the absolute max the SEC would want. That's if they take Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, (Duke or NCSU), UVA and VT. Or 7 ACC schools if they want 7 of those 8 and Kansas to fill out the North West corner of the conference. If Basketball becomes 1/2 as important as football or more for revenues, an addition of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas become very attractive.

I think the BIG is a bigger threat than the SEC. But in the worst case, I expect the ACC would lose two or three schools max. FSU is the most likely candidate. GT and Miami are the other two. If the ACC loses FSU and/or Miami, UCF would be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know what the ACC would do if GT leaves.

From what you are saying, my guess is that you don't think the VA/NC cluster of schools would leave the ACC if invited by the P2?

Interesting position, and you could very well be right.

But any list of "I'm outta here" schools should include Clemson to the SEC, in my opinion.

I am minority but I don’t think the P2 are that interested in VA/NC schools. I think UNC (and VT!) had a chance to join the SEC as #14 but they decided to stay. FSU really wanted to get an offer from the SEC but the SEC chose Mizzou instead. Clemson didn’t and doesn’t have any chance in my opinion.

It's not that the SEC wouldn't have preferred FSU or Clemson over Missouri. The SEC's contract with ESPN required that the 2 new additions had to open up new states or else they wouldn't re-open the SEC's contract.

So, Texas A&M was a no brainer but VT felt that if they agreed to leave, it might destabilize the ACC to the point where the SEC would take someone else instead (UNC, Duke, UVA). Remember at that time the B1G had just negotiated membership for Missouri, it destabilized the Big 12 to the point where Nebraska became available and the B1G took Nebraska and left Missouri high and dry.

So... VT decided against pursuing SEC membership. They didn't turn them down because it never gets to that point. They would only offer if you had already committed to go. VT made it clear they were happy in the ACC but if the ACC became destabilized they would pursue membership.

(10-04-2022 12:31 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 06:06 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I think UConn has a chance at the ACC once the southern schools are poached by the SEC and/or B10

At a minimum, I think these 5 are likely gone:

FSU
Clemson
NC
NC state
VA

With others likely as well

But just doing a backfill of 9 for 5, to get to 18 (17+1+1)

Boston College
UConn
Temple
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Virginia Tech
Duke
East Carolina
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech

Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis

Miami
UCF
USF

Navy – fb
Notre Dame - non-fb

Why 18? Because I think 2 or more of the above are also likely poached, but it's very debate-able which those would be. So just listing them all.

These additions are are basically either former Big east schools or were on the B12's short list.

I think UConn would seem to fit in here just fine

How many ACC teams are poached by the SEC/B1G is well down the road with the GoR in place until 2036. I predict it won't be challenged until the earliest in 2030 and at the latest 2034.

By then I suspect the B1G will already be at 20 with the additions of Oregon, Washington, and Stanford with the last program being either ND or Cal.

I just don't see the B1G taking any program that isn't AAU (with the exception of ND and quite possibly FSU) - which means the ACC's programs likely to be considered are from amongst UNC, UVA, GT, Duke, and with a possible exception FSU.

As I have theorized in other posts I believe ESPN will fight to keep control of its Southeastern holdings within its two exclusive power conferences the SEC and the ACC.

ESPN/ABC which is under siege by both old (FOX, NBC, CBS) and new (Amazon, possibly Apple) competitors in the sports market as well as parent company Disney under siege by Wall Street who want the Mouse to divest itself of ESPN (which I personally don't see Chapek doing that for at least another decade unless Apple makes them an offer they can't refuse) - will do whatever they have to keep the B1G away from FSU and UNC primarily and by extension Clemson, GT, and UVA.

I am assuming (and I think it's a reasonable if not guaranteed assumption - I have been known to be wrong before) that the B1G will not pursue VT and NC State. But since I don't see ESPN giving the ACC SEC type monies, that means they will have to somehow at minimum facilitate FSU and UNC to the SEC where they can get SEC type $$$ and therefore not in the B1G.

That leaves 2 spots open to get the SEC to 20 (which I believe the B1G will reach that number prior to this) and those 2 programs are likely to be ACC programs. I have proposed those remaining two teams as being UVA and Duke but I readily admit it could just as easily be Clemson and UVA or GT.

Note: Why Duke? - I see the SEC/ESPN as likely going to play the LONG game - just look at the SEC's record in being a head of the curve as far back as when they left the Southern Conference to form the SEC, went down to 10 over time, then expanding to 12 in the 1990s for purposes of a conference title game, expanding again with Texas A&M to get into Texas, and the recent expansion with Texas and OU. As for ESPN its road to become the sports juggernaut is quite a story as well.

I see taking Duke along with UNC to add to the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU ensures the SEC will be a major basketball conference for the time ahead should the NCAA men's bb tourney also fall under the jurisdiction of the Power 2 Conferences. But that is probably a stretch.

Anyway, my apologies for this long-winded post.

Cheers,
Neil

A couple of things to consider:
Under the announced media arrangement, the B1G can monetize additions much more quickly than ESPN/ABC (because of the increased OTA content which is not bound by long term contracts with cable operators).
Notre Dame's contracts with the ACC.

I don't foresee ESPN making any moves with ACC schools as long as Notre Dame is bound by contract to the ACC and therefore ESPN.
I also don't foresee ESPN giving any cable operator a reason to challenge negotiated rates because of reduced brand content.
It is to ESPN's advantage to keep the status quo as long as possible and keep it's contracts intact, especially if Disney were considering selling off ESPN.

NC State and UNC, being located in the same core metro bring the same Statewide DMA footprint -

22- Charlotte, 24 - Triangle, 35 - Tidewater, 46 - GSA, 47 - Triad, Greenville/NB - 102 - All told about 14 million people

VT and UVa, are not located in the same core metro but other than Beckley they would bring -

9 - DC, 46 - Tidewater - 56 - Richmond, 71 - Roanoke, 100 - Tri-Cities, Beckley is just 164 All told about 13 million people


The maps are very because for instance the Charlotte DMA works for UNC and NC State, as much as for Clemson and SC.

I think you might have to account for the fact that "Southern" eyeballs are more valuable than "Northeast" or "Western" eyeballs in the future.

(10-05-2022 11:31 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  NC State and UNC, being located in the same core metro bring the same Statewide DMA footprint -

22- Charlotte, 24 - Triangle, 35 - Tidewater, 46 - GSA, 47 - Triad, Greenville/NB - 102 - All told about 14 million people

VT and UVa, are not located in the same core metro but other than Beckley they would bring -

9 - DC, 46 - Tidewater - 56 - Richmond, 71 - Roanoke, 100 - Tri-Cities, Beckley is just 164 All told about 13 million people


The maps are very because for instance the Charlotte DMA works for UNC and NC State, as much as for Clemson and SC.

I think you might have to account for the fact that "Southern" eyeballs are more valuable than "Northeast" or "Western" eyeballs in the future.

eyeballs are eyeballs.

what I am guessing you mean is that there would seem to be more eyeballs interested in this, in the south, in the future, and "that", is something that might be worth taking into account.

I think Uconn's value is tied to its hatred of BC. If that rivalry developed into something like a UNC/Duke or Louisville/Kentucky it would add value.They should schedule BC more and keep that fire going.

If their basketball returned to prominence the could be another Duke. Good but someone everyone loves to hate.

I still don't see them being a good investment at this time.

5-5 with games against Liberty and Army left on the schedule. 1 season is an anomaly, but if they can string together several seasons like this, would this change anybody’s mind?

(11-05-2022 08:10 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  5-5 with games against Liberty and Army left on the schedule. 1 season is an anomaly, but if they can string together several seasons like this, would this change anybody’s mind?

No. I hope UConn and their pinhead senator Blumenthal rot.

I have a very long memory.

(11-05-2022 08:10 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  5-5 with games against Liberty and Army left on the schedule. 1 season is an anomaly, but if they can string together several seasons like this, would this change anybody’s mind?

For UConn to have any shot they'd have to turn into Penn State,
OR Basketball would have to pay a LOT more.
JMO.