(09-23-2022 05:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: A lot of the people crying about this don’t seem to realize these dips and slowdown are helping fight inflation. It’s the market regulating itself.
Yes, it's a byproduct of the Fed's interest rate decisions. I consider the market on sale. If any past recessions are an indicator, now is the time to step into the market, not run away.
(09-23-2022 05:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: A lot of the people crying about this don’t seem to realize these dips and slowdown are helping fight inflation. It’s the market regulating itself.
You’ve diagnosed the problem, but this was preventable.
It’s the consequence of extended lockdowns, war against small business during Covid, global supply chain, and trillions more in government spending. Biden wanted vaccine mandates in the private sector, hurting business activity and recovery efforts. Instead of alleviating economic hardships, he enabled it. Now we are suffering the consequences of woke leaders who care more about trends on Twitter than an average American.
It really wasn’t though.
This has been coming for sometime now—the end of the Boomer generation in the workforce. That’s the single largest driver of all of this, add to it a pandemic, Russia’s impact on global energy and now food, the erosion of the Chinese and German workshops, and you have the cost of capital skyrocketing.
Bad policies haven’t helped but they are all far too small of movers to be meaningful. They are damaging though in they focus the argument and discussion on minutia and prevent people from seeing the big picture and how to handle it.
It's true that there a multiple reasons how recessions or downturns happen, yes.
But we were caught flat footed after 2020. This administration took all the steps to kick the can down the road for an entire year. Inflation isn't an issue/it's transitory, supply chain isn't an issue (took a month to acknowledge the baby formula crisis), vaccine mandates (hurting blue collar jobs to own the R's), federal moratorium on mortgages, then blaming Putin for high gas when the average prices were rising for months prior, draining our SPR to record lows.
The supply chain was the main driver of inflation in 2021. There were many questions being asked about how to alleviate this problem because it was causing bottlenecks and low supply, which made groceries more expensive. They did nothing to try and fix this. Biden owns this mess by not addressing any of it for two years.
The entire point is there wouldn't be a recession if it wasn't for inflation. That caused everything to go sideways. Rates would be still around 0 if it was the usual 2/3/4% monthly YOY inflation rate.
(This post was last modified: 09-27-2022 09:05 AM by WalkThePlank.)
This administration and the Democrats in Washington have done everything they can to destroy the economy with woke policies. If the GOP can't take total control of Washington in the next two years they are totally incompetent.
An interesting point. The 1929 crash was bad---but it was nothing compared to the 2 year grinding bear that ran from 1930 to 1932. In 1929 the Dow topped out at 381. It crashed in 1929 all the way down to 199---close to a fast 50% decline. But the Dow recovered to 294 by mid 1930 recovering over half of its losses---from that point it went on a relentless grinding 2-year tailspin finally bottoming out at 41 in mid-1932 (thats an 86% decline from its 1930 high in 2 years). The Dow wouldnt see its 1930 high of 294 again until the mid 1950's (that same bull would take the market past its 1929 high as well).
(This post was last modified: 09-27-2022 04:13 PM by Attackcoog.)
(09-23-2022 05:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: A lot of the people crying about this don’t seem to realize these dips and slowdown are helping fight inflation. It’s the market regulating itself.
Yes, it's a byproduct of the Fed's interest rate decisions. I consider the market on sale. If any past recessions are an indicator, now is the time to step into the market, not run away.
Not yet
Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
agree, I'm thinking first of the year.
explain the recovery ... I'm all ears with the subsequent gens barely being able to row that boat ashore + muh gubb'mints' rolling the dice with porous border infiltration...
they busted the nut with the 401k and the boomers ... how's that entry level working out now ... oh yeah, muh muh muh loan forgiveness...
study up how dutch tulips eventually play out ... I only missed it by a decade...
I'll carry the guilt of having a child (haven't said that in a while ... she's past the point of solid; now being self-employed at 23.5) .... this isn't about any individual....
An interesting point. The 1929 crash was bad---but it was nothing compared to the 2 year grinding bear that ran from 1930 to 1932. In 1929 the Dow topped out at 381. It crashed in 1929 all the way down to 199---close to a fast 50% decline. But it recovered to 294 by mid 1930---from that point it went on a relentless grinding 2-year tailspin finally bottoming out at 41 in mid-1932 (that an 86% decline over 2 years).
pay att'n to the flatline post wwII ... why is that?
I really want to see how smart you econ fellers can play that one to today ... here's a hint: muh goldy locks standard
(This post was last modified: 09-27-2022 04:11 PM by stinkfist.)
An interesting point. The 1929 crash was bad---but it was nothing compared to the 2 year grinding bear that ran from 1930 to 1932. In 1929 the Dow topped out at 381. It crashed in 1929 all the way down to 199---close to a fast 50% decline. But the Dow recovered to 294 by mid 1930 recovering over half of its losses---from that point it went on a relentless grinding 2-year tailspin finally bottoming out at 41 in mid-1932 (thats an 86% decline from its 1930 high in 2 years). The Dow wouldnt see its 1930 high of 294 again until the mid 1950's (that same bull would take the market past its 1929 high as well).
I don't see it taking years to rebound after this. While the economy has been slowed by inflation, wages are up, people are working are still spending. Inflation looks to be our barrier to moving forward.
An interesting point. The 1929 crash was bad---but it was nothing compared to the 2 year grinding bear that ran from 1930 to 1932. In 1929 the Dow topped out at 381. It crashed in 1929 all the way down to 199---close to a fast 50% decline. But the Dow recovered to 294 by mid 1930 recovering over half of its losses---from that point it went on a relentless grinding 2-year tailspin finally bottoming out at 41 in mid-1932 (thats an 86% decline from its 1930 high in 2 years). The Dow wouldnt see its 1930 high of 294 again until the mid 1950's (that same bull would take the market past its 1929 high as well).
I don't see it taking years to rebound after this. While the economy has been slowed by inflation, wages are up, people are working are still spending. Inflation looks to be our barrier to moving forward.
Unfortunately in mainstream Econ the only real easy equation I see in short term is for inflation to go down employment will have to go up. Then, there are a whole lot of other variables you can include that are negative.
(This post was last modified: 09-28-2022 09:35 AM by natibeast2.0.)
The Stock Market has been overvalued for well over a decade. It was boosted with FED money. No way Tesla is worth more than Toyota and GM combined. Mortgage rates will be at 7 within 30 days(sooner than I expected), and layoffs will begin in October(new quarter). People are currently maxed out on credit cards which means Christmas will be a disaster. The problem I see is who will scoop up shares of stock that will be sold to get cash once inflation levels off this year to take advantage of the high interest rates. Is our government smart enough to keep our enemies from making a run on our US companies. Do they even think they are our "enemies". That is the scary part. We have absolute idiots running our country presently. That is the real fear about this and it won't be reported because the media that is supposed to be on OUR side is not. They are on the side of government, which is the most "UnAmerican" thing of all.
![[Image: currencies.png]](https://www.telfordmann.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/currencies.png)