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Will there be a P6 conference at some point in the future?

(09-23-2022 05:38 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

If the P5 Survive, will there be a P6 conference at some point in the future?

I think, if all 5 P5 survive, it'll likely be by taking several G5 schools.

If that happens, I think that ends the idea of a P6.

And even if all 5 survive, at least 1 could be left raided enough to appear to be more of a G conference.

To put it another way, at this point, I think P4 is more likely than P6.

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Predictions:

Most of the Big Ten and SEC fans will vote for "P2" and "M3"

Most of the Big XII and ACC fans will vote for "P3" or "P4"

Most of the PAC fans will vote for "P5"

Most G5 fans will vote for "P6," "P7" or something beyond our imaginations.

P2 and little 8. More of the little 8 members will be joining the P2 as soon as possible. Only a few left in the remains of P3 would can afford to be with the P2 crowd.

I think we need to see who the PAC adds. If they didn't add anyone they need to make a conference with the best of AAC and MW how ever that is done.

(09-23-2022 05:49 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Predictions:

Most of the Big Ten and SEC fans will vote for "P2" and "M3"

Most of the Big XII and ACC fans will vote for "P3" or "P4"

Most of the PAC fans will vote for "P5"

Most G5 fans will vote for "P6," "P7" or something beyond our imaginations.

You are probably correct with your prediction, Milwaukee.

To your question: I do not foresee a "Power 6." There has never been a P6 (despite what Mike Aresco claimed) — and I say that as a Cincy and a Memphis fan.

We are seeing — and likely will continue to see — consolidation of the most high-profile athletics programs. This alteration was inevitable. And if this consolidation continues, lots of quality individual athletics programs — and even entire leagues (including potentially the MWC, AAC, Big East, A10, etc.) — could be marginalized further.

Super Power 2
Power 3
G5

ACC/Big 12/Pac-12 will making half or so what the Super Power 2 mak, but they'll be making 7-10X what the G5 will be making. That's too much of a gap not to call those three "Power" conferences.

"P6" is a joke. Now that Cincy, Houston, and UCF are leaving, the AAC, Sun Belt, and MW are much closer to each other than the #5 league, both in revenue and performance.

I wanna see app st and bama in the playoff final… with of course app st winning…

You have to keep in mind that P6 is not so much a sixth power conference as that its a mentality that you can run with the power programs.

Contrary to the idea of much of the G5 dropping out of FBS which some desperately hope happen, P6 mentality is rampant among G5 athletic departments. They have facility projects lined up, dreams of bringing in name coaches and P5 opponents to their FB/BB facility.

As a fan of a G5 program I want all that stuff but not to keep up with the bluebloods. I want it to dominate the conference we play in. Have the biggest basketball arena in the conference also want the largest football stadium.

Ultimately if the P5 split off that would be fine by me because all of the sudden my team is playing in one of the strongest conferences in DI without the bluebloods driving up the cost of everything.

Consolidation seems to be inevitable.

Question: how is it possible for the first 4 choices to happen if the premise of the poll is that the P5 survives? Shouldn't the only options to choose from be ones where the P5 survives?

(09-23-2022 10:42 AM)e-parade Wrote:  Question: how is it possible for the first 4 choices to happen if the premise of the poll is that the P5 survives? Shouldn't the only options to choose from be ones where the P5 survives?

Good question. The only way I see a P6 is if the SEC and B1G stop growing and the other three power conferences realign into four smaller regional conferences that include all schools currently considered P5. The chances of that happening are extremely slim.

P5 can't survive if it's already dead.

(09-23-2022 01:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-23-2022 10:42 AM)e-parade Wrote:  Question: how is it possible for the first 4 choices to happen if the premise of the poll is that the P5 survives? Shouldn't the only options to choose from be ones where the P5 survives?

Good question. The only way I see a P6 is if the SEC and B1G stop growing and the other three power conferences realign into four smaller regional conferences that include all schools currently considered P5. The chances of that happening are extremely slim.

I posted this in the ACC forum:

The idea of separating football from all other sports in the ACC, Big 12 and PAC isn't entirely crazy. There will be 36 schools in the three P5 conferences and 33 in the SEC, B1G and ND. There will be a CFP that gives an automatic bid to the top six conference champions.

So, instead of creating a single new super football conference out of the M3, why not create four new nine team football conferences, all of which come together to negotiate media contracts as if they were a single entity? All other sports stay in their current conferences, either with each negotiating separate media contracts or also negotiating as one entity.


ACC FC: Clemson, FSU, NC State, Ga Tech, Va Tech, UNC, Duke, Virginia, WFU
Big East FC: Miami, WVU, Pitt, Louisville, UCF, Cincy, BC, Syracuse, Houston
Big 12 FC: OK State, Baylor, K State, TCU, BYU, Texas Tech, Iowa St, Colorado, Kansas
PAC FC: OU, Stanford, UW, Utah, ASU, UA, Cal, Washington St, Oregon St


These, along with the B1G and SEC, would constitute a P6.

I think there’s definitely a P2 and M3 but beyond that I think the situation is more complex.

C-USA and the MAC are definitely at the bottom of the spectrum. I think the MWC has the best top to bottom value of the G5. The AAC’s top will be strong but it’s bottom (particularly some of the new schools) are likely going to be embarrassingly bad and drag the league down. Meanwhile you have a well balanced SBC whose calling card is parity and who’s top isn’t as good as the best MWC and AAC schools but their bottom will be better than most of C-USA and the MAC and the bottom of the MWC and AAC.

Actually there will be a P2 and a M1.

Big Ten will grow to 24 schools. SEC will grow to 20. The remaining schools from the ACC, Big12 and PAC will consolidate into a 24 team "Best of the Rest" conference.

About 4 current P5 schools will be left out, including Wash St and Wake

(09-23-2022 10:42 AM)e-parade Wrote:  Question: how is it possible for the first 4 choices to happen if the premise of the poll is that the P5 survives? Shouldn't the only options to choose from be ones where the P5 survives?

You have a point. The poll question should have been reworded (but unfortunately, they can't be edited once the poll is posted).

A "yes"/"no" response to the premise of the thread topic would have been less interesting, and would have left out all the respondents who don't buy into the premise that the P5 will survive.

This is all kind of semantics. It's clear no one else is on the level of the SEC or Big 10 at this point, even if people call it a power five. And people still count the Big 12 as a "power" conference, even though it lost the top half of its members and back filled almost entirely with non power 5 schools. So what make it a power conference anymore? History? Some level of good football? Cincinnati was really good last year, does that make the AAC a power conference, albeit temporarily? It's very unclear how that status is determined. So it just seems to be what people claim it is.

(09-24-2022 01:31 AM)Jericho Wrote:  It's clear no one else is on the level of the SEC or Big 10 at this point, even if people call it a power five.

That's simply not true, according to the most recent Massey Composite conference rankings.

Final Massey Composite Ranking

Basketball (2022): Big XII: #1 https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Football (2021): Big XII: #2 https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2021-15.htm

Football (current): Big XII: #1 https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

(09-24-2022 01:31 AM)Jericho Wrote:  And people still count the Big 12 as a "power" conference, even though it lost the top half of its members and back filled almost entirely with non power 5 schools. So what make it a power conference anymore?

The 2021 and current (2022) Massey Composite Football Rankings indicate that the Big XII is one of the top two football conferences even after TX & OU depart for the SEC.

Why? Because the average rankings for Cincy, UCF, Houston, and BYU have been similar enough to the average rankings of the current Big XII that the conference's average ranking is #2, regardless, both at present, and in the final 2021 rankings.

The Big XII will lose Oklahoma and Texas, which were ranked #9 and #47 (average rank: #28) in football last season, and they will gain UC, UCF, UH, and BYU, which were ranked #6, #21, #52, and #27 (average rank: #26.5) last season.

Currently, UC, BYU, UCF, and Houston are ranked slightly lower than they were last season, and Oklahoma/Texas are ranked higher than last season, but despite that fact, when Texas and Oklahoma's rankings are replaced with UC, BYU, UCF, & Houston's rankings, the future Big XII schools are nevertheless ranked #2 in the nation:

..............................................Current Mean Massey Composite Ranking
#1 Big XII (with Texas & Oklahoma)..................33.09
#2 SEC..........................................................33.42
#3 Big Ten......................................................42.66

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2021-15.htm

Replacing TX/OU with UC/UCF/UH/BYU:

#1 SEC..........................................................33.42
#2 Big XII (with UC, UCF, UH, & BYU)................39.16
#3 Big Ten......................................................42.66

What this shows is that when Texas and Oklahoma are replaced with UC, UCF, UH, and BYU, the Big XII is one of the top two football conferences in the nation, ahead of the Big Ten.

This was also the case in the final 2021 Massey Composite Football Rankings.
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