Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

It will be interesting. With NIL the urgency to go pro won't be as great if you're not a lottery pick.

I imagine the the aforementioned programs will still recruit blue chippers.

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

If the rules are updated, there will be a short 1-2 year period of increased parity followed by a regression to the mean meaning the top programs will still be on top just like it was before.

I don't think this significantly impacts CBB one way or another. I think you could maybe make an argument that ratings may take a small hit since the generational talents a la Zion, etc. won't be playing at the blue-chip programs but CBB ratings have always been program driven over player driven primarily.

(09-21-2022 07:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

If the rules are updated, there will be a short 1-2 year period of increased parity followed by a regression to the mean meaning the top programs will still be on top just like it was before.

I don't think this significantly impacts CBB one way or another. I think you could maybe make an argument that ratings may take a small hit since the generational talents a la Zion, etc. won't be playing at the blue-chip programs but CBB ratings have always been program driven over player driven primarily.

Agreed. Its actually a good thing for college basketball. I've talked to other UK fans. Its just much harder to get attached to the team when it almost completely changes over every year. Might have even cost UK some national championships. Those freshman, as talented as they are, just don't always perform consistently in the big games and don't play as well as a unit as a team that's been together 2 or 3 years.

It may benefit everyone eventually with every team could set a good team that plays 2-3 years together. Most people going straight to the draft are the given top picks or people thinking there better than they are. College is a way to easily develop against non NBA talent, earn money through NIL and player's have a chance to increase their draft stock.

(09-21-2022 09:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 07:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

If the rules are updated, there will be a short 1-2 year period of increased parity followed by a regression to the mean meaning the top programs will still be on top just like it was before.

I don't think this significantly impacts CBB one way or another. I think you could maybe make an argument that ratings may take a small hit since the generational talents a la Zion, etc. won't be playing at the blue-chip programs but CBB ratings have always been program driven over player driven primarily.

Agreed. Its actually a good thing for college basketball. I've talked to other UK fans. Its just much harder to get attached to the team when it almost completely changes over every year. Might have even cost UK some national championships. Those freshman, as talented as they are, just don't always perform consistently in the big games and don't play as well as a unit as a team that's been together 2 or 3 years.

Agreed - i love seeing the teams that are Junior/Senior led do well.

And yes, College Basketball has suffered from lack of continuity with star players.

I used to know everyone drafted. Now, even taking out the foreign players, I barely know half of them.

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

This is a few years away from being implemented, if it happens. It is part of the CBA which expires in 2024 and some teams have traded for future draft picks and they will not want this change to occur to quickly.

I personally would rather see the kids play at least one year of college ball. I think some kids will try to go straight to the NBA when they are not ready and some will lack the talent to declare for the NBA draft.

In 2022, 283 players declared early for the draft, including 36 foreign players. In 2021, 353 players declared early, so it was down for some reason in 2022. The NBA draft combine invited 76 players to their workouts. Only sixty players get drafted. Most of these kids should stay in school, work on their game, get an education, and hopeully make some NIL money while in school.

(09-21-2022 09:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 07:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

If the rules are updated, there will be a short 1-2 year period of increased parity followed by a regression to the mean meaning the top programs will still be on top just like it was before.

I don't think this significantly impacts CBB one way or another. I think you could maybe make an argument that ratings may take a small hit since the generational talents a la Zion, etc. won't be playing at the blue-chip programs but CBB ratings have always been program driven over player driven primarily.

Agreed. Its actually a good thing for college basketball. I've talked to other UK fans. Its just much harder to get attached to the team when it almost completely changes over every year. Might have even cost UK some national championships. Those freshman, as talented as they are, just don't always perform consistently in the big games and don't play as well as a unit as a team that's been together 2 or 3 years.

^^This. Allowing players to go to the NBA straight out of high school should actually help the college game. Think about the 2018-19 Duke team: RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish were the #1 and #2 national recruits, but Zion Williamson became the star and Tre Jones its second most important freshman. It just seemed that Barrett and Reddish were forced to delay their NBA dreams. Inevitably, those four 5-star Duke freshman came in third place in the ACC regular season and didn’t make the Final Four. It was UVa with four 4-stars (third year players…Hunter, Guy, Jerome and Huff) that had better results. The blue blood programs will adapt to the new rules.

NIL certainly changes the decision process for a lot of kids. There are way more high school seniors that believe they are NBA ready than actually are ready. If NCAA eligibility rules don't change, a lot of them will make a bad choice and pass up a chance to make some nice money in college. You can make a living in the G League these days, but the lifestyle isn't much to write home about compared with being a BMOC in college.

Getting rid of 1-and-done benefits UK and Duke.

Most one-and-done players haven't been great in college.

In 2021 & 2022, there were 39 college freshman chosen in the NBA draft. 4 were from Duke and 3 were from Kentucky (UK also had an additional freshman who was injured the whole year). Duke's Paolo Banchero was great, and Kentucky's TyTy Washington was 2nd team all-SEC, but the other five were average or below-average college starters. The teams would have been better off having more experienced upperclassmen in those roles.


This will also give Duke and UK more roster spots to take more experienced talent (who will usually be better in college than a 1-and-done is) away from lower-tier schools.

This won't go into effect right away, so the NCAA has some time to react. I wonder about the timing of the NBA draft and how this will affect college recruiting. Will schools hold open a spot for a player who makes a late decision to withdraw from the draft? Will some coaches miss out on a less talented sure commitment in hopes of getting one of those late deciders?

Breakdown from 2022 first round:

Americans playing in NCAA (23, including 10 one-and-dones): Pick Nos. 1-5, 10, 12-23, 25-26, 28-30

Internationals playing in NCAA (3, including 2 one-and-dones): Pick Nos. 6-7 and 9

NBA G-League (2, including one-and-done equivalent): Pick Nos. 8 and 24

International players professionally overseas (2, both one-and-done equivalents): Pick Nos. 11 and 27

Interesting to see how this changes going forward

There will still be a lot of one and done.

One and done helped the NBA reduce the risk a little bit as they saw the players against better than HS competition, and they were a year older and more physically mature. The draft will be even more of a crap shoot now.

The thing to remember is the NBA only gave out 41 guaranteed contracts to rookies (rest were two-way or International player stash), and 2 of those were International and 3 were G-League Ignite. So really all of College Basketball is competing for 35 contracts. And in four years only about 15 of those will have stuck, only 5 or 6 starters.

We pay a lot of attention to the NBA draft but very little to the vast majority of players whose path is very different from the top 30-40 out of High School.

Some folks in the Twitter world - aka where all news breaks - are convinced this is to ensure LeBron James plays with his son Bronny in the NBA. But those folks don't recognize that it won't affect Bronny at all as he's class of 2023. He would still have to wait until he's 19 to be draft eligible. It's the class after that who can go straight to the pros.

WAG, I'd say Bronny's odds of playing one year in college is 70-30.

This could also make the G-League even bigger because NBA teams might want to snatch up the young but promising prospects and have them mature in the G-League under their system for 1-2 years as opposed to a college that might run a different system.

(09-21-2022 03:02 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  This could also make the G-League even bigger because NBA teams might want to snatch up the young but promising prospects and have them mature in the G-League under their system for 1-2 years as opposed to a college that might run a different system.

But while they are playing in the G-League they are virtually anonymous. The NBA doesn't benefit from the publicity they would get as college stars, and most of the players would earn less than collegiate NIL would give them. Real NIL (as opposed to the use of the term NIL as a substitute for signing bonuses or pay for play) is only valuable if your name and image are actually in the public eye.

(09-21-2022 03:02 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  This could also make the G-League even bigger because NBA teams might want to snatch up the young but promising prospects and have them mature in the G-League under their system for 1-2 years as opposed to a college that might run a different system.

The G League could use the help.

(09-21-2022 03:02 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  This could also make the G-League even bigger because NBA teams might want to snatch up the young but promising prospects and have them mature in the G-League under their system for 1-2 years as opposed to a college that might run a different system.

The G-League isn't all that big now, tbh.

The overwhelming majority of players in the developmental league will at best have a cup of coffee in the NBA — if that. The most promising raw prospects — the kind more than a handful of fans might want to keep an eye — will ride the end of the bench in the NBA, where the team's coaches and staff can invest in their development.

The numbers "prep to pros" players who start out in the G-League and end up being starters in the NBA will likely be few and far between. I'd guess the NBA will be just fine with those kids going off to college and developing or not.

(09-21-2022 06:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Reported on PTI last night that the NBA was likely to reduce the age for the draft to 18 and eliminate the requirement that a player be one year removed from his high school graduating class.

How is that going to affect schools like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas that have benefitted greatly from one-and-done players?

Will the NCAA respond by allowing players who enter the draft but don't actually enter the NBA or G League to return to school?

It seems possible that, as much as anything, this move may be an attempt by the NCAA to make the G league more competitive with college basketball, by drawing more and more young players directly out of high school and into the G league.

It might work that way, as intended, boosting G league viewership. Then again, it might not make much of a dent in college BB viewership, since that has a natural audience (the students, alumni, and fans of each school).

It might make remove some of the most spectacular players from the college game, but that might not be all bad, since BB is a team game, and it would be refreshing to see more team-oriented and less individual virtuoso-oriented play going forward.

It might also help to maintain the distinction between college and pro basketball. There are many of us who prefer the college to the pro game and would be happy to see college BB become less like the NBA.

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