With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

My advice to those schools -- be careful what you wish for.

I like it.

At what point do P2 presidents start to tell their athletic departments how much they can spend on athletics and how much they have to start contributing to the general funds of the university? No athletic department really needs as much as those schools are earning, even if they start paying athletes outrageous salaries.

The problem with this concept is that, right now, even in a bad year or series of bad years, these programs are pretty close to .500. But in a conference like this, the texas or tennessee of the past 15 years might go 2-10. Every year. It won't take much of that to tarnish and, eventually, devalue many of these brands. Heck, what happens to tOSU if they start going 7-5 in a good year b/c they have to face bama and a bevy of other SEC juggernauts every year?

The only way something like this works is if the P2/top conference truly separates from the rest of CFB and only play each other in an NFL-style system. That requires at minimum 24 teams, probably 32, likely meaning most of the current P2, with maybe one or 2 from each moved out to make room for ND/Clemson/FSU. As Jerry Jones has proven, you can play .500 ball for 25 years in the NFL and still have the most valuable franchise in sports.

(09-16-2022 12:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The problem with this concept is that, right now, even in a bad year or series of bad years, these programs are pretty close to .500. But in a conference like this, the texas or tennessee of the past 15 years might go 2-10. Every year. It won't take much of that to tarnish and, eventually, devalue many of these brands. Heck, what happens to tOSU if they start going 7-5 in a good year b/c they have to face bama and a bevy of other SEC juggernauts every year?

The only way something like this works is if the P2/top conference truly separates from the rest of CFB and only play each other in an NFL-style system. That requires at minimum 24 teams, probably 32, likely meaning most of the current P2, with maybe one or 2 from each moved out to make room for ND/Clemson/FSU. As Jerry Jones has proven, you can play .500 ball for 25 years in the NFL and still have the most valuable franchise in sports.

Which is why a Super 2 with a compilation third conference is a transitional phase.

The B1G and SEC can likely only find value at 20 each. The other four would provide another 48 conference games and a better win/loss bell curve.

The third conference becomes a proving ground for what will be eventually a couple of 30-32 school leagues.

(09-16-2022 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  At what point do P2 presidents start to tell their athletic departments how much they can spend on athletics and how much they have to start contributing to the general funds of the university? No athletic department really needs as much as those schools are earning, even if they start paying athletes outrageous salaries.

That already happens at Texas. Probably does at other places.

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

On the Longhorn boards, we've been referring to that as "Prestige Worldwide" for a number of years. There's a lot of logic to it. But it would probably only have 6 or 7 conference game so that the members could rack up wins against the other guys.

I don't think it happens until TV money tops off. As long as TV revenues are going up, people aren't going to be thinking about such radical steps.

(09-16-2022 12:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The problem with this concept is that, right now, even in a bad year or series of bad years, these programs are pretty close to .500. But in a conference like this, the texas or tennessee of the past 15 years might go 2-10. Every year. It won't take much of that to tarnish and, eventually, devalue many of these brands. Heck, what happens to tOSU if they start going 7-5 in a good year b/c they have to face bama and a bevy of other SEC juggernauts every year?

The only way something like this works is if the P2/top conference truly separates from the rest of CFB and only play each other in an NFL-style system. That requires at minimum 24 teams, probably 32, likely meaning most of the current P2, with maybe one or 2 from each moved out to make room for ND/Clemson/FSU. As Jerry Jones has proven, you can play .500 ball for 25 years in the NFL and still have the most valuable franchise in sports.

If the Premier Conference decides on an 8 game conference schedule, a Florida can go 2-6 in conference and still go 6-6.

(09-16-2022 12:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

On the Longhorn boards, we've been referring to that as "Prestige Worldwide" for a number of years. There's a lot of logic to it. But it would probably only have 6 or 7 conference game so that the members could rack up wins against the other guys.

I don't think it happens until TV money tops off. As long as TV revenues are going up, people aren't going to be thinking about such radical steps.

Fewer conference games makes a lot of sense. That way some top brands can better justify 2 (home) for 1 (away) OOC scheduling. Creates media inventory while structurally building the brand. A win-win solution that builds revenue.

I don’t think that this is that radical. We’re already planning to have programs from Southern California play conference games in Maryland and New Jersey.

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

So, 5 from B10:
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

And 9 from SEC:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Why don't you just have those 9 schools breakaway from the SEC and start their own conference? You could still add 1 or 3 other schools of your choice from wherever for 10 or 12.

One would presume the media companies would just throw money at them.

Fewer conference games, but a larger conference playoff.

(09-17-2022 07:04 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

So, 5 from B10:
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

And 9 from SEC:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Why don't you just have those 9 schools breakaway from the SEC and start their own conference? You could still add 1 or 3 other schools of your choice from wherever for 10 or 12.

One would presume the media companies would just throw money at them.

IMHO, an SEC-only break-away is a no win proposition. If it’s initially successful, an SEC-only approach will further regionalize and eventually shrink the sport. As an alternative, the remaining best brands (for example: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State) could theoretically create a more compelling and diverse consumer alternative.

In addition, I listed the brands in what I believe is the order of media importance. The SEC has more quality depth (9 out of top 13 programs) and will undoubtedly win the lion’s share of championships. Nevertheless, the B1G has the two most valuable brands (Ohio State and Michigan), 3 of the top 6 brands, and 4 of the top 10 brands. There is a good reason why the B1G media contract payouts still exceed those of the SEC.

As an aside, there are six (not 5) B1G programs in my Premier Conference.

(09-17-2022 11:03 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-17-2022 07:04 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

So, 5 from B10:
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

And 9 from SEC:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Why don't you just have those 9 schools breakaway from the SEC and start their own conference? You could still add 1 or 3 other schools of your choice from wherever for 10 or 12.

One would presume the media companies would just throw money at them.

IMHO, an SEC-only break-away is a no win proposition. If it’s initially successful, an SEC-only approach will further regionalize and eventually shrink the sport. As an alternative, the remaining best brands (for example: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State) could theoretically create a more compelling and diverse consumer alternative.

In addition, I listed the brands in what I believe is the order of media importance. The SEC has more quality depth (9 out of top 13 programs) and will undoubtedly win the lion’s share of championships. Nevertheless, the B1G has the two most valuable brands (Ohio State and Michigan), 3 of the top 6 brands, and 4 of the top 10 brands. There is a good reason why the B1G media contract payouts still exceed those of the SEC.

As an aside, there are six (not 5) B1G programs in my Premier Conference.

The SEC would have 6 of the top 10 brands, and two of the top 3 most years, and all of the key recruiting regions in the SE and SW, which are also the only regions not seeing a strong decline in high school participation in the sport.

So, you need to do some non COVID year research on valuations and revenue production, and you need to reconsider where Clemson & FSU would be.

Oh, and the PAC schools aren't normally in the top 20 in value and revenue, but then neither is Clemson.

(09-17-2022 11:03 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-17-2022 07:04 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

So, 5 from B10:
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

And 9 from SEC:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Why don't you just have those 9 schools breakaway from the SEC and start their own conference? You could still add 1 or 3 other schools of your choice from wherever for 10 or 12.

One would presume the media companies would just throw money at them.

IMHO, an SEC-only break-away is a no win proposition. If it’s initially successful, an SEC-only approach will further regionalize and eventually shrink the sport. As an alternative, the remaining best brands (for example: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State) could theoretically create a more compelling and diverse consumer alternative.

In addition, I listed the brands in what I believe is the order of media importance. The SEC has more quality depth (9 out of top 13 programs) and will undoubtedly win the lion’s share of championships. Nevertheless, the B1G has the two most valuable brands (Ohio State and Michigan), 3 of the top 6 brands, and 4 of the top 10 brands. There is a good reason why the B1G media contract payouts still exceed those of the SEC.

As an aside, there are six (not 5) B1G programs in my Premier Conference.

lol mea culpa, apparently I can't count a list of names from my own post : )

And your follow-up list is interesting too. ND (which isn't joining anybody); FSU and Clemson - more likely to join the SEC breakaway; and 9 others which look like a PAC/B10 breakaway conference.

I think both of your breakaway conferences could make 10 or 12 members.

The only real question is whether they'd leave their old conferences behind for the money truck...

(09-17-2022 12:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-17-2022 11:03 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-17-2022 07:04 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-16-2022 10:39 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  With the B1G and SEC solidly in control of FBS governance for the next decade, I wonder whether the evolution in the 2030s will entail further consolidation of top brands. The P6 were decision makers in the 00’s; Big East football didn’t survive and the P5 ruled the 2010s; and now P2 + M3 seems to be the governing structure for the next decade.

Is there a point where athletic leaders at Alabama and Ohio State (plus other top brand programs) realize that their long-standing conferences aren’t the best vehicles to generate revenue opportunities? The biggest brands will increasingly have more in common with each other than with many of their legacy conference members. Nothing against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Missouri or Rutgers, but football revenue is exploding when more brand-v-brand games are scheduled.

The new CFP model is all about maximizing post-season revenue. Forming a Premier Conference would maximize regular season revenue. My Premier Conference would consist of:
Ohio State
Michigan
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Penn State
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
LSU
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Nebraska
Iowa

Only the first 10 programs are essential. The last five programs add depth. There is even room for an additional member (ND? USC? FSU?) if negotiations become complex.

Expanding the B1G or SEC to 20 or 24 teams will inevitably dilute the brand power of the top earners. Football and college athletics are in a retrenching/consolidation phase. The top brands may not want to continue their alliance with archaic conference models.

So, 5 6 from B10:
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

And 9 from SEC:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Why don't you just have those 9 schools breakaway from the SEC and start their own conference? You could still add 1 or 3 other schools of your choice from wherever for 10 or 12.

One would presume the media companies would just throw money at them.

IMHO, an SEC-only break-away is a no win proposition. If it’s initially successful, an SEC-only approach will further regionalize and eventually shrink the sport. As an alternative, the remaining best brands (for example: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State) could theoretically create a more compelling and diverse consumer alternative.

In addition, I listed the brands in what I believe is the order of media importance. The SEC has more quality depth (9 out of top 13 programs) and will undoubtedly win the lion’s share of championships. Nevertheless, the B1G has the two most valuable brands (Ohio State and Michigan), 3 of the top 6 brands, and 4 of the top 10 brands. There is a good reason why the B1G media contract payouts still exceed those of the SEC.

As an aside, there are six (not 5) B1G programs in my Premier Conference.

The SEC would have 6 of the top 10 brands, and two of the top 3 most years, and all of the key recruiting regions in the SE and SW, which are also the only regions not seeing a strong decline in high school participation in the sport.

So, you need to do some non COVID year research on valuations and revenue production, and you need to reconsider where Clemson & FSU would be.

Oh, and the PAC schools aren't normally in the top 20 in value and revenue, but then neither is Clemson.

SEC - 10
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
FSU
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M

Definitely makes for an interesting conference.

If you had to pick 2 more (likely from SEC or ACC, but I won't limit it) - who would you suggest?