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Rice in the CFP or NY6
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #1
Rice in the CFP or NY6
I was looking at a list of the 8 or so most likely G5 teams to win their conference and earn the NY6 bid and it hit me that we play two of them the next two weeks.
Combine that fact with the fact that our only loss is now up at #7 in the polls, and I realized…
We. could. go. all. the. way.

I’m still a bit disappointed how the USC game momentum shifted “just when we had them on the ropes”. And we’re now out of CFP contention.

But just win the next two and we will be on the list of teams that could make the NY6 bowl. For now, enjoying this flying “under the radar”. So, shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone we’re coming.

:)
09-12-2022 11:47 PM
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RiceLad15 Online
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RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
I’ll have what he’s having.
09-13-2022 05:49 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #3
Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-13-2022 05:49 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I’ll have what he’s having.


Put it this way.
We beat the “spread” by 35 this week.
If you said we could beat the spread by another total of 35 points all season combined over the next TEN games, that would be enough to run the table and win all ten.

Just need to beat expectations by 2TD this week. And if we do that we *might* be just a single digit underdog at UH.
09-13-2022 06:37 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-12-2022 11:47 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I was looking at a list of the 8 or so most likely G5 teams to win their conference and earn the NY6 bid and it hit me that we play two of them the next two weeks.
Combine that fact with the fact that our only loss is now up at #7 in the polls, and I realized…
We. could. go. all. the. way.

I’m still a bit disappointed how the USC game momentum shifted “just when we had them on the ropes”. And we’re now out of CFP contention.

But just win the next two and we will be on the list of teams that could make the NY6 bowl. For now, enjoying this flying “under the radar”. So, shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone we’re coming.

:)

Making reservations as we speak.
09-13-2022 09:52 AM
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WestGrayStreetOwl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-13-2022 09:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-12-2022 11:47 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I was looking at a list of the 8 or so most likely G5 teams to win their conference and earn the NY6 bid and it hit me that we play two of them the next two weeks.
Combine that fact with the fact that our only loss is now up at #7 in the polls, and I realized…
We. could. go. all. the. way.

I’m still a bit disappointed how the USC game momentum shifted “just when we had them on the ropes”. And we’re now out of CFP contention.

But just win the next two and we will be on the list of teams that could make the NY6 bowl. For now, enjoying this flying “under the radar”. So, shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone we’re coming.

:)

Making reservations as we speak.

I definitely have reservations.
09-13-2022 11:13 AM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-13-2022 11:13 AM)WestGrayStreetOwl Wrote:  
(09-13-2022 09:52 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-12-2022 11:47 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I was looking at a list of the 8 or so most likely G5 teams to win their conference and earn the NY6 bid and it hit me that we play two of them the next two weeks.
Combine that fact with the fact that our only loss is now up at #7 in the polls, and I realized…
We. could. go. all. the. way.

I’m still a bit disappointed how the USC game momentum shifted “just when we had them on the ropes”. And we’re now out of CFP contention.

But just win the next two and we will be on the list of teams that could make the NY6 bowl. For now, enjoying this flying “under the radar”. So, shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone we’re coming.

:)

Making reservations as we speak.

I definitely have reservations.

Rimshot
09-13-2022 04:15 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #7
Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-13-2022 06:37 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(09-13-2022 05:49 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I’ll have what he’s having.


Put it this way.
We beat the “spread” by 35 this week.
If you said we could beat the spread by another total of 35 points all season combined over the next TEN games, that would be enough to run the table and win all ten.

Just need to beat expectations by 2TD this week. And if we do that we *might* be just a single digit underdog at UH.


Only beat the spread by 24 tonight.

I’ll take it.

Cajuns are out of the CFP race. So is Houston. Who will be last man standing?

Rice is still standing
09-17-2022 10:25 PM
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franklyconfused Offline
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RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-17-2022 10:25 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(09-13-2022 06:37 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(09-13-2022 05:49 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I’ll have what he’s having.


Put it this way.
We beat the “spread” by 35 this week.
If you said we could beat the spread by another total of 35 points all season combined over the next TEN games, that would be enough to run the table and win all ten.

Just need to beat expectations by 2TD this week. And if we do that we *might* be just a single digit underdog at UH.


Only beat the spread by 24 tonight.

I’ll take it.

Cajuns are out of the CFP race. So is Houston. Who will be last man standing?

Rice is still standing

I sincerely doubt we have a path to the CFP. Our schedule would never get us to the top 4 after the USC loss, and that could only happen if USC went 12-1 (we'd still likely get left out for the SEC and B1G runners-up if the committee could at all sell that idea).

For the rest of the NY6, even if we go 12-1 this year, I struggle to see a scenario where a two-loss American or one-loss Sun Belt champion is ranked below us due to our schedule and recent history. Our only good-looking out-of-conference opponent this year is USC, and we lost that handily. UH and ULL aren't likely to do us any favors in the strength of schedule, and UAB and UTSA have also already lost their opportunities at winning C-USA some pre-bowling respect. For us to somehow shock the country and back into a Cotton Bowl bid, we'd need the American to be won by a three- or four-loss team and the Sun Belt to implode and beat each other up while we march through our last 10 games.

If we do it, I'd absolutely make the trek up to Arlington, but I'm not making reservations today. I think it's most likely that we get shipped off to Hawai'i or the Bahamas, whether we have 6 wins or 12.
09-18-2022 11:27 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #9
Rice in the CFP or NY6
Yes, oops, I meant to say NY6 in my excited post from last night.

But our NY6 path (other than the still fanciful “winning the next ten games” thing) is still pretty reasonable. ULL’s only blemish is us, and I see enough raw pieces there for them to figure it out and win the SBC (probably with their QB2. To me, if either ULL or Houston wins their conference (especially Houston since a 12-1 AAC would by default rank above a 12-1 CUSA team) then a 12-1 Rice could be in the final list. If Houston falls flat then a win over them will obviously carry a lot less weight. But even if Houston starts 1-3 and loses the Bucket next week, they are still a strong enough team to contend for the AAC title, as long as Dana doesn’t “lose” the team. They have the talent. And so does LoL.

A UTSA win last night sure would have been handy for a couple reasons!!!!!
09-18-2022 04:24 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #10
Rice in the CFP or NY6
Welp, looks like we’re out of the running.

Let’s run the table in conference.

Then we can play what-if about the Houston game that “cost us the NY6”

(In 2006 we lost a season opener to UH 31-30 which eventually “cost us” the division title, but i had no idea we would even contend for a bowl that year)

In other news, Louisiana-Lafayette lost, too, which would have hurt our SOS chances, even if we’d beaten Houston.
09-25-2022 08:08 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #11
Rice in the CFP or NY6
Not to let this thread go, since this week-five ranking has Rice in the top fitty! (And #6 among NY6 eligible teams)

35. Cincinnati
37. Coastal Carolina
45. Tulane
47. Middle Tenn
48. UAB
50. Rice
51. Western KY
52. USA
55. Memphis
57. Monroe
60. San Jose

Yes, like WRC, these guys are in the Massey Composite…

https://football.loudsound.org/2022/rank/5
09-28-2022 06:51 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-28-2022 06:51 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Not to let this thread go, since this week-five ranking has Rice in the top fitty! (And #6 among NY6 eligible teams)

35. Cincinnati
37. Coastal Carolina
45. Tulane
47. Middle Tenn
48. UAB
50. Rice
51. Western KY
52. USA
55. Memphis
57. Monroe
60. San Jose

Yes, like WRC, these guys are in the Massey Composite…

https://football.loudsound.org/2022/rank/5

Here are mine:

39. Cincinnati
46. Western Kentucky
53. Tulane
54. Coastal Carolina
58. South Alabama
60. UCF
61. Air Force
62. UNLV
63. Liberty
65. SMU
09-28-2022 07:37 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #13
Rice in the CFP or NY6
WRC I’m sure you know this, but it does bear repeating:

Your rankings are (likely) much more closely aligned with what we would all expect from the CFP rankings (certainly when compared to the one I quoted above)

Yours are also (usually) fairly close to the overall Massey Composite. I see you have Rice (at 93) 2 spots better than Massey Composite, about what we realistically deserve right now IMO.
09-28-2022 10:12 PM
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gsloth Offline
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RE: Rice in the CFP or NY6
(09-28-2022 06:51 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Not to let this thread go, since this week-five ranking has Rice in the top fitty! (And #6 among NY6 eligible teams)

35. Cincinnati
37. Coastal Carolina
45. Tulane
47. Middle Tenn
48. UAB
50. Rice
51. Western KY
52. USA
55. Memphis
57. Monroe
60. San Jose

Yes, like WRC, these guys are in the Massey Composite…

https://football.loudsound.org/2022/rank/5

I had noticed that earlier this week. I like that the short-hand used for them in the Massey Composite is

LSD

I'd say they must have some good stuff if they have Rice currently at 50. That's quite a hallucination.
09-30-2022 11:30 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #15
Rice in the CFP or NY6
The following 7 teams have 1 loss (or zero) and play in leagues that would put them ahead of a 2-loss CUSA champ.
All these teams (and possibly more, since our last two opponents have not won a game since playing us) are ahead of Rice in the NY6 race.

1. Tulane
2. Cincy
3. Coastal Carolina (5-0)
4. Memphis
5. UCF
6. USA
7. AFA
10-02-2022 06:27 PM
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Post: #16
Rice in the CFP or NY6
And now for something completely different, the loud sound.org rankings that have Rice moving up from 50 ^ 43 this week!

Here’s top G5’s (including postseason-ineligible JMU and NY6-autobid-ineligible Liberty), Texas teams, and other Rice opponents in their ranking this week:

5. USC
12. JMU
17. TCU
22. Liberty
26. Coastal Carolina
29. Cincinnati
31. Tulane
36. Memphis
38. USA
40. Baylor
42. Texas
43. Rice (#4 in TX){#6 in NY6 eligible}
46. San Jose State
47. Texas Tech

[Image: 4a91f6f10b24092cf008c68b35d05029.jpg]

48. UNLV
52. Troy
54. App State
55. Texas A&M
56. Air Force
59. USM
64. UCF
65. MTSU
66. Toledo
67. Houston
70. ECU
71. Central Michigan
72. SMU
73. UTSA
74. Wyoming
78. WKU
79. UAB
80. Boise
81. ULM
82. Bowling Green
83. Kent State
87. Marshall


[Image: 1e202cb0a5853388373f1f0a5e2c90bb.jpg]

94. Texas State
95. UNT
100. Tulsa
101. UTEP
102. Temple
103. FIU
104. Nebraska (!)
107. ODU
108. LoL
114. LaTech
121. Navy
123. FAU
129. USF
130. Charlotte
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2022 06:50 PM by owl at the moon.)
10-02-2022 06:48 PM
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