Teams with 1st loss week 2:
Central Florida
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas State
Texas A&M
Akron
South Carolina
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Houston
Northwestern
Ohio U.
Missouri
UNLV
Iowa
Virginia
Nevada
Old Dominion
UAB
Baylor
Stanford
Arizona State
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
San Jose State
Fresno State
Arizona
Florida

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
12: The 10 conference champs, James Madison (who is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship), and one of BYU/Liberty
-no changes from last week

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

-The SEC had several interesting story lines with Alabama escaping Texas with a win, Texas A&M losing to Appalachian State in the programs 2nd most national memorable win, and Kentucky beating Florida. If Alabama had lost too, the odds of the SEC getting two teams in the playoff bowls would have taken a real hit. With just A&M they probably only drop a little. In the east, Kentucky beating Georgia in the swamp means they or Tennessee are the 2nd team to beat in the east (after Georgia of course).

-The Big Ten overall had a less than stellar week. The western half the conference now has all teams with a loss except Minnesota. Wisconsin managed to lose a game it dominated the stats, Iowa cannot get their offense going, and Nebraska is already moving on from the Frost era. It is worth noting as well that the Notre Dame loss to Marshall will impact how the Buckeye win over the Irish is viewed. That said, the top of the east still looks pretty strong, although it will be tested next week.

-Speaking of the Irish, them losing takes away hopes of the CFP and now they probably need to win out to get in the NY6. Fellow independent (for this year anyway) BYU is in better shape with a win over Baylor. BYU was close to the NY6 last year as an at large and is definitely in the running this year if they can keep winning (with an outside chance of the CFP if everything breaks right).

-USC won at Stanford handily. The conference may not want to root for the Trojans hard this year, but they are definitely the conference's best bet to get back the CFP.

-While they both lost with good games, Baylor and Texas now likely need to win out to make the CFP. Oklahoma remains the league's best shot at the CFP, but the league is definitely open.

-The Mountain West, MAC, and Conference USA are now all down to just one undefeated team. Baring a monster out of conference win, I do not believe there is a likely path for a 1-loss MAC or Conference USA team. The Mountain West would be more open with a 1-loss champion, but it has taken far fewer of the NY6 auto spots than would have been guessed at the start of the era. The American, which has dominated that spot the last several years, remains in decent shape, but only has two undefeated teams left in it and they have had pretty light schedules and are not favored to win the league. The Sun Belt is definitely in contention now with early success and still 6 undefeated teams (5 if you factor out James Madison). In an American vs. Sun Belt comparison, something like East Carolina's victory over Old Dominion last week might help.

Week 3 Thoughts:
We have 8 games between undefeated FBS schools this week.

Friday: Undefeated Air Force @ Wyoming: Air Force is the final Mountain West undefeated team. Winning out, they will be a strong NY6 contender. Losing will leave the conference needing more help.

Undefeated Oklahoma @ Nebraska: I love seeing this game being played, but hate the timing. It would be special for the Cornhuskers if they can pull it off though.

Undefeated Western Kentucky @ Undefeated Indiana: Western Kentucky is the final undefeated Conference USA team. I think any hope the conference has for the NY6 likely rests with them. Indiana meanwhile would really like to start 3-0 and that might be important for bowl eligibility.

Undefeated BYU @ Oregon: Oregon is a bit of a favorite here and it would help take a bit of the sting off the Georgia loss. BYU can't afford many losses and get into the NY6 in their final year of independence.

Undefeated Penn State @ Undefeated Auburn: A nice early Big Ten vs. SEC match-up. Auburn is a home underdog, but winning the game would help with perceptions to get two CFP teams from the SEC again while the Big Ten would benefit from the being perceived well as the west took a hit last week.

Undefeated Texas Tech @ undefeated North Carolina State: North Carolina State is ranked 15 and the ACC could definitely use some teams moving up the ranking beside Clemson (although they have several in this range). Who #2 in the ACC is currently is an open question and the wins this week might show who else is the team to beat.

Undefeated Michigan State @ Undefeated Washington: Washington is a small favorite here. This would be a good win for either of them and leave the winner a long shot CFP contender.

Undefeated Miami @ Texas A&M: Miami is the 2nd favorite it win the ACC in the betting odds, and, if they turn out to actually be that close to the top, this could be a game that matters a lot to conference perceptions. If we end up with a 1-loss ACC champion vs. a 1-loss non-SEC champ for instance this kind of game can make a lot difference. Meanwhile, Texas A&M very much wants to prove last weeks loss was a fluky early season thing they can move past.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 8, American: 2, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 8, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 6, SEC: 8, Sun Belt: 6, independents: 2, total: 50
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Rutgers
Syracuse
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Marshall
Southern Mississippi
Tulane
Toledo
Air Force
Brigham Young
Texas Christian
California
Oregon State
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Louisiana-Lafayette
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
(James Madison)

You forgot to mention Georgia Southern’s victory over Nebraska. GS looking like they’re returning to old form aka winning!!

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

A surprising loser with Notre Dame's struggle? The SEC. I was counting on Notre Dame to beat Clemson this year. Now imagine if Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all finish 13-0. The SEC Championship Game loser is likely OUT of the Playoff this year (or they are in and one of the other 13-0 teams is out and we're really going to hear SEC bias complaints).

ESPN's Playoff Predictor now has Oklahoma now an underdog vs. Texas in Dallas (36% chance to win) and certainly Texas playing Alabama close gives more of an argument to UT winning. OU is only a 58% favorite to beat Baylor at home but Baylor lost at BYU. They are 58% at Iowa State, 62% over Oklahoma State, 64% at TCU, and 65% at Texas Tech. I would guess they have a decent chance to lose at least one of those road games (I don't really trust Texas). Kansas State is usually OU's nemesis but they play in Norman (even though KSU has beaten them in Norman recently).

Clemson is now a 64% favorite at Notre Dame, 75% at Florida State, 76% at home vs. Miami, and 77% at Wake Forest. I think Clemson now has a better chance to go undefeated than Oklahoma. The issue now with Clemson with ND not being as good is will that 13-0 be as impressive?

(09-12-2022 08:47 AM)schmolik Wrote:  A surprising loser with Notre Dame's struggle? The SEC. I was counting on Notre Dame to beat Clemson this year. Now imagine if Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all finish 13-0. The SEC Championship Game loser is likely OUT of the Playoff this year (or they are in and one of the other 13-0 teams is out and we're really going to hear SEC bias complaints).

ESPN's Playoff Predictor now has Oklahoma now an underdog vs. Texas in Dallas (36% chance to win) and certainly Texas playing Alabama close gives more of an argument to UT winning. OU is only a 58% favorite to beat Baylor at home but Baylor lost at BYU. They are 58% at Iowa State, 62% over Oklahoma State, 64% at TCU, and 65% at Texas Tech. I would guess they have a decent chance to lose at least one of those road games (I don't really trust Texas). Kansas State is usually OU's nemesis but they play in Norman (even though KSU has beaten them in Norman recently).

Clemson is now a 64% favorite at Notre Dame, 75% at Florida State, 76% at home vs. Miami, and 77% at Wake Forest. I think Clemson now has a better chance to go undefeated than Oklahoma. The issue now with Clemson with ND not being as good is will that 13-0 be as impressive?

I would bet strongly against Clemson finishing the season undefeated.

(09-12-2022 08:13 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Teams with 1st loss week 2:
Central Florida
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas State
Texas A&M
Akron
South Carolina
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Houston
Northwestern
Ohio U.
Missouri
UNLV
Iowa
Virginia
Nevada
Old Dominion
UAB
Baylor
Stanford
Arizona State
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
San Jose State
Fresno State
Arizona
Florida

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
12: The 10 conference champs, James Madison (who is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship), and one of BYU/Liberty
-no changes from last week

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

Georgia Southern beat Nebraska, that makes four P5 scalps for the Sun Belt.

ECU over ODU is interesting as a barometer, but ECU lost to NC State while ODU beat Virginia Tech. The rest of their schedules aren't much to talk about either way.

Should have included Nebraska in that list.

I agree Oklahoma likely has losses in front of them. They do have a bit more of a margin of error for now though.

I hadn't thought about fact Notre Dame plays Clemson yet. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Ill be very surprised if we end up with more than 3 undefeated champs, but for the SEC to get a 2nd team, it needs that and for the competition to not be too strong of a 1-loss champ.

(09-12-2022 08:22 AM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  You forgot to mention Georgia Southern’s victory over Nebraska. GS looking like they’re returning to old form aka winning!!

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

LOUISIANA (not Louisiana Lafayette), also of the Sun Belt, has the nation's longest winning streak at 15.

Southern Miss is not undefeated and Wake Forest (2-0) vs. Liberty (2-0) is an undefeated matchup.

(09-12-2022 10:56 AM)HoustonCajun Wrote:  

(09-12-2022 08:22 AM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  You forgot to mention Georgia Southern’s victory over Nebraska. GS looking like they’re returning to old form aka winning!!

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

LOUISIANA (not Louisiana Lafayette), also of the Sun Belt, has the nation's longest winning streak at 15.

I'm certainly not overlooking you folks...I have you noted as our third toughest opponent on our schedule behind App and Marshall (I ranked Nebraska as our 5th toughest game ).

(09-12-2022 08:13 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Teams with 1st loss week 2:
Central Florida
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas State
Texas A&M
Akron
South Carolina
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Houston
Northwestern
Ohio U.
Missouri
UNLV
Iowa
Virginia
Nevada
Old Dominion
UAB
Baylor
Stanford
Arizona State
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
San Jose State
Fresno State
Arizona
Florida

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
12: The 10 conference champs, James Madison (who is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship), and one of BYU/Liberty
-no changes from last week

Week 2 Thoughts:
-What a week! Let's start with the Sun Belt. The conference now has teams with wins over Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Considering the conference was once the 11th best and even at the start of the CFP era was probably at the bottom (could argue above the MAC), them even being in the conversation for being one of the best Group of 5 conferences is rather stunning. Whether a Sun Belt school can take the NY6 bowl is still a long way away, but regardless it has been an impressive start.

-The SEC had several interesting story lines with Alabama escaping Texas with a win, Texas A&M losing to Appalachian State in the programs 2nd most national memorable win, and Kentucky beating Florida. If Alabama had lost too, the odds of the SEC getting two teams in the playoff bowls would have taken a real hit. With just A&M they probably only drop a little. In the east, Kentucky beating Georgia in the swamp means they or Tennessee are the 2nd team to beat in the east (after Georgia of course).

-The Big Ten overall had a less than stellar week. The western half the conference now has all teams with a loss except Minnesota. Wisconsin managed to lose a game it dominated the stats, Iowa cannot get their offense going, and Nebraska is already moving on from the Frost era. It is worth noting as well that the Notre Dame loss to Marshall will impact how the Buckeye win over the Irish is viewed. That said, the top of the east still looks pretty strong, although it will be tested next week.

-Speaking of the Irish, them losing takes away hopes of the CFP and now they probably need to win out to get in the NY6. Fellow independent (for this year anyway) BYU is in better shape with a win over Baylor. BYU was close to the NY6 last year as an at large and is definitely in the running this year if they can keep winning (with an outside chance of the CFP if everything breaks right).

-USC won at Stanford handily. The conference may not want to root for the Trojans hard this year, but they are definitely the conference's best bet to get back the CFP.

-While they both lost with good games, Baylor and Texas now likely need to win out to make the CFP. Oklahoma remains the league's best shot at the CFP, but the league is definitely open.

-The Mountain West, MAC, and Conference USA are now all down to just one undefeated team. Baring a monster out of conference win, I do not believe there is a likely path for a 1-loss MAC or Conference USA team. The Mountain West would be more open with a 1-loss champion, but it has taken far fewer of the NY6 auto spots than would have been guessed at the start of the era. The American, which has dominated that spot the last several years, remains in decent shape, but only has two undefeated teams left in it and they have had pretty light schedules and are not favored to win the league. The Sun Belt is definitely in contention now with early success and still 6 undefeated teams (5 if you factor out James Madison). In an American vs. Sun Belt comparison, something like East Carolina's victory over Old Dominion last week might help.

Week 3 Thoughts:
We have 8 games between undefeated FBS schools this week.

Friday: Undefeated Air Force @ Wyoming: Air Force is the final Mountain West undefeated team. Winning out, they will be a strong NY6 contender. Losing will leave the conference needing more help.

Undefeated Oklahoma @ Nebraska: I love seeing this game being played, but hate the timing. It would be special for the Cornhuskers if they can pull it off though.

Undefeated Western Kentucky @ Undefeated Indiana: Western Kentucky is the final undefeated Conference USA team. I think any hope the conference has for the NY6 likely rests with them. Indiana meanwhile would really like to start 3-0 and that might be important for bowl eligibility.

Undefeated BYU @ Oregon: Oregon is a bit of a favorite here and it would help take a bit of the sting off the Georgia loss. BYU can't afford many losses and get into the NY6 in their final year of independence.

Undefeated Penn State @ Undefeated Auburn: A nice early Big Ten vs. SEC match-up. Auburn is a home underdog, but winning the game would help with perceptions to get two CFP teams from the SEC again while the Big Ten would benefit from the being perceived well as the west took a hit last week.

Undefeated Texas Tech @ undefeated North Carolina State: North Carolina State is ranked 15 and the ACC could definitely use some teams moving up the ranking beside Clemson (although they have several in this range). Who #2 in the ACC is currently is an open question and the wins this week might show who else is the team to beat.

Undefeated Michigan State @ Undefeated Washington: Washington is a small favorite here. This would be a good win for either of them and leave the winner a long shot CFP contender.

Undefeated Miami @ Texas A&M: Miami is the 2nd favorite it win the ACC in the betting odds, and, if they turn out to actually be that close to the top, this could be a game that matters a lot to conference perceptions. If we end up with a 1-loss ACC champion vs. a 1-loss non-SEC champ for instance this kind of game can make a lot difference. Meanwhile, Texas A&M very much wants to prove last weeks loss was a fluky early season thing they can move past.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 8, American: 2, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 8, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 6, SEC: 8, Sun Belt: 6, independents: 2, total: 50
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Rutgers
Syracuse
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Marshall
Southern Mississippi
Tulane
Toledo
Air Force
Brigham Young
Texas Christian
California
Oregon State
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Louisiana-Lafayette
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
(James Madison)

You left off Undefeated Louisiana @ Rice. Louisiana has the longest winning streak in the country at 15.

I see that UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana and UCLA are all undefeated. Who said they were basketball schools?

Nice to read this every week. Thanks!