Based on what I saw with opponent considered:
1. (=) WMU- MAC wins are hard to come by on the road!
2.(+1) Toledo- Easy one from the jump. Technically FBS win.
3. (+1) Kent- Was in this game for a LONG time. It seems like defense is a bit improved.
4. (+2) Miami- a win is a win these days.
5. (-3) Ohio- honestly no shame in losing to PSU. Neck and neck with the MAC East foes in front of yall.
6. (+4) NIU- I think theyll figure out the offense fully, eventually. The jump is honestly because no one else did anything of a note. So close losses to AAC teams are fairly pallatable.
7. (+5) BSU- They looked okay vs the current top dog.
8. (+1) EMU- good half vs probable 9 win team.
9. (+2) Akron- idk...
10. (-5) CMU- A bit dramatic of a drop, but you cant lose to Carter Bradly at home, guys.
11. (-4) Buffalo- Holy Cross any good?
12. (-4) BG- should have taken the season under!
To answer one question, not that it excuses anything, but Holy Cross is actually ranked 15th in FCS right now. I looked it up when I saw they might pull the upset. I was surprised, but it looks like they've won their last 3 conference titles.
(09-11-2022 09:29 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote: To answer one question, not that it excuses anything, but Holy Cross is actually ranked 15th in FCS right now. I looked it up when I saw they might pull the upset. I was surprised, but it looks like they've won their last 3 conference titles.
Pat league right? Whatever. Still a bad look. UB probably is the worst coached team with top 4 or 5 talent. The talent alone might keep em out of the basement. But for now theyre in a group with other MAC teams who have lost to FCS teams.
The MAC does look weaker this year...maybe the top 3-4 teams can salvage the season for the rest of the conference. Just not sure yet.
UB record-wise looks lousy but their actual play on the field is better than how they ended last season. They have a couple stud WR's and the new QB can actually distribute the ball fairly well (although not a very strong arm).
The loss last night on a hail mary would have been embarrassing against Ohio State or Holy Cross. That's just inexcusable for UB, against anyone. But I'll say this, Holy Cross, as mentioned above, is a top-15 FCS team (will be ranked higher this week) who are going for their 4th consecutive Patriot League Championship. Their QB, Sluka is a tough SOB and can run really well and throw a bit. He reminded me of Edelman back in the day. There's no doubt in my mind this version of Holy Cross would be a middle of the pack MAC team. The talent level looked about the same. They would definitely knock off some other MAC teams this season. So i don't see the loss as embarrassing but the final play was.
In my opinion, the Top 15 maybe 20 FCS teams could beat the bottom 25% of FBS teams on any given day. There just isn't a huge difference.
It may just be Toledo is the best team but there's no way to tell because they probably have played the easiest first two weeks of opponents in all of college football. They get their first true test against Ohio St next week
CMU was bound to have a huge drop off. CMU lost a lot of very good and productive players on offense and defense. They were 3rd from last in MAC for returning production. Lew Nichols hasn't been able to have the same success.
No one in this conference appears to be able to keep other teams from scoring lots of points besides Toledo (but again, very weak schedule so far -- Ohio St probably lights them up).
NIU played six straight quarters of conservative football and tried to force the rush game to no avail as teams loaded the box. We open up the offense and allow Rocky to improvise and we score 28 points on last two qtrs. Stop forcing Lombardi to only stay in the pocket to give handoffs or throw.
The MAC East may be worse than last season, if that's possible. Poor Kent State has played a brutal schedule but they will certainly be battle tested and hungry (or defeated) for wins and they can feast on East division opponents.
(09-11-2022 11:08 AM)epasnoopy Wrote: It may just be Toledo is the best team but there's no way to tell because they probably have played the easiest first two weeks of opponents in all of college football. They get their first true test against Ohio St next week
CMU was bound to have a huge drop off. CMU lost a lot of very good and productive players on offense and defense. They were 3rd from last in MAC for returning production. Lew Nichols hasn't been able to have the same success.
No one in this conference appears to be able to keep other teams from scoring lots of points besides Toledo (but again, very weak schedule so far -- Ohio St probably lights them up).
NIU played six straight quarters of conservative football and tried to force the rush game to no avail as teams loaded the box. We open up the offense and allow Rocky to improvise and we score 28 points on last two qtrs. Stop forcing Lombardi to only stay in the pocket to give handoffs or throw.
The MAC East may be worse than last season, if that's possible. Poor Kent State has played a brutal schedule but they will certainly be battle tested and hungry (or defeated) for wins and they can feast on East division opponents.
I want a game bet for Ohio State. I dont think theyll light us up. An under the pt total for sure. Their offense was not good vs stAte or ND. WR and Oline hits to the draft are playing large. Penn State, MSU and Michigan all look like tough games now. Compared to preseason expectations at least.
Rockets cover? 5 bucks?
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2022 08:10 AM by UofToledoFans.)
(09-11-2022 11:25 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: I want a game bet for Ohio State. I dont think theyll light us up. An under the pt total for sure. Theyre offense was not good vs stAte or ND. WR and Oline hits to the draft are playing large. Penn State, MSU and Michigan all look like tough games now. Compared to preseason expectations at least.
Rockets cover? 5 bucks?
What's the current point spread? I agree that OSU hasn't looked as good on offense. I don't see Toledo holding them to under 35 points. Toledo fans don't seem impressed with their own offense. If they can't move the ball and are forced to punt a lot that just gives OSU more opportunities to score points.
(09-11-2022 11:25 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: I want a game bet for Ohio State. I dont think theyll light us up. An under the pt total for sure. Theyre offense was not good vs stAte or ND. WR and Oline hits to the draft are playing large. Penn State, MSU and Michigan all look like tough games now. Compared to preseason expectations at least.
Rockets cover? 5 bucks?
What's the current point spread? I agree that OSU hasn't looked as good on offense. I don't see Toledo holding them to under 35 points. Toledo fans don't seem impressed with their own offense. If they can't move the ball and are forced to punt a lot that just gives OSU more opportunities to score points.
UT fan 1: offense in 450 yd performances are "ugly" and using the past to create a scenario where Toledo is same old same old 7 win team with no Oline.
UT fan 2: We are vanilla as sh!t because our opponents are sh!t and doing the bear minimum is way enough to scorch the losers our last AD put on our schedule. Literally zero things we know more now than August and we have shown that because big dogs are on the schedule now.
Im fan 2, and pretty annoyed with the negativity of fan 1. I think Ohio state scores in the 30s or low 40s. Coming into the year I thought about 48 pts.
35-21 is my prediction... and close for 3 qtrs. Probably a turnover or special teams mistake that does us in.
(09-11-2022 11:25 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: I want a game bet for Ohio State. I dont think theyll light us up. An under the pt total for sure. Theyre offense was not good vs stAte or ND. WR and Oline hits to the draft are playing large. Penn State, MSU and Michigan all look like tough games now. Compared to preseason expectations at least.
Rockets cover? 5 bucks?
What's the current point spread? I agree that OSU hasn't looked as good on offense. I don't see Toledo holding them to under 35 points. Toledo fans don't seem impressed with their own offense. If they can't move the ball and are forced to punt a lot that just gives OSU more opportunities to score points.
UT fan 1: offense in 450 yd performances are "ugly" and using the past to create a scenario where Toledo is same old same old 7 win team with no Oline.
UT fan 2: We are vanilla as sh!t because our opponents are sh!t and doing the bear minimum is way enough to scorch the losers our last AD put on our schedule. Literally zero things we know more now than August and we have shown that because big dogs are on the schedule now.
Im fan 2, and pretty annoyed with the negativity of fan 1. I think Ohio state scores in the 30s or low 40s. Coming into the year I thought about 48 pts.
35-21 is my prediction... and close for 3 qtrs. Probably a turnover or special teams mistake that does us in.
I’m thinking in the neighborhood of 45-27 …
Am concerned about too many 3 and outs with our defense being on the field too long !!
Still too early to tell -- gotta wait a couple more weeks for the most part....
TOP TIER:
WMU - Played MSU tough 1st 3Q on paper, trying to get their ducks in a row which will take a few weeks; beat fired up BSU who has talent & potential and showed confidence against
Toledo - Hard to tell how good they'll be. Their QB has been passing poorly and they played 2 teams that wouldn't be close to ranked in D1AA. But adjusting, good D and good running game.
MIDDLE WHO KNOWS:
NIU - They're adjusting and won't have the same amount of wins than last year. Vandy's the true test.
Miami - They won their bowl, expected to win the MAC East, played a Good Kentucky team decently, but didn't impress VS Robert Morris but key injuries which if lasting, will prevent any MAC East title
EMU - Beat a possibly good D1AA week one by only a TD. BUT played well against a top-dog SBC team for a good long while
Ohio - Beat a decent OOC opponent week 1. Looked hapless against PSU (who to be fair has a better O this year; but their D isn't quite as rock-solid)
Kent - Showed promise against Washington, if Washington shows to be good this year in the P12. Played awesome for a 1st half against Oklahoma.
CMU - Showed power & promise late in the game against OK-St where it wasn't all their subs because they HATED CMU and wanted to cream them bad, which CMU thwarted. But last loss bad.
BAD:
BSU - They have promise with their QB. Put up good stats against Tennessee but turnovers and fell short. They don't have all the pieces in place. Played well against WMU but let it go and WMU with their new QB & WRs gave them plenty of opportunity and is very beatable when they have to go on the road. I can't put them in the middle since they weren't supposed to be all that decent this year, but who knows!
Buffalo - Given how they won't have a good O, they played decent against Maryland, considering Maryland's to be a good O, low D type of team. Did bad losing to Holy Cross who was ranked #18 in D1AA (now #16)
BGSU - Great 1st half in their 1st game against P12. Then got whipped -- and lost to a seemingly good D1AA in many OTs at home, tho. Not good.
Akron - It's Akron. They could move the ball against a high-level MSU D, but 4 turnovers and 1 yard per carry with 99 yards of penalty totally outweighs a decent pass % with no INTs. And virtually losing to a blah D1AA team at home? Sheesh. Mine as well a toilet bowl with them VS UMass.
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2022 04:57 PM by toddjnsn.)
(09-12-2022 06:25 AM)toddjnsn Wrote: Still too early to tell -- gotta wait a couple more weeks for the most part....
TOP TIER:
WMU - Played MSU tough 1st 3Q on paper, trying to get their ducks in a row which will take a few weeks; beat fired up BSU who has talent & potential and showed confidence against
Toledo - Hard to tell how good they'll be. Their QB has been passing poorly and they played 2 teams that wouldn't be close to ranked in D1AA. But adjusting, good D and good running game.
MIDDLE WHO KNOWS:
NIU - They're adjusting and won't have the same amount of wins than last year. Vandy's the true test.
Miami - They won their bowl, expected to win the MAC East, played a Good Kentucky team decently, but didn't impress VS Robert Morris but key injuries which if lasting, will prevent any MAC East title
EMU - Beat a possibly good D1AA week one by only a TD. BUT played well against a top-dog SBC team for a good long while
Ohio - Beat a decent OOC opponent week 1. Looked hapless against PSU (who to be fair has a better O this year; but their D isn't quite as rock-solid)
Kent - Showed promise against Washington, if Washington shows to be good this year in the P12. Played awesome for a 1st half against Oklahoma.
CMU - Showed power & promise late in the game against OK-St where it wasn't all their subs because they HATED CMU and wanted to cream them bad, which CMU thwarted. But last loss bad.
BAD:
Buffalo - Given how they won't have a good O, they played decent against Maryland, considering Maryland's to be a good O, low D type of team. Did bad losing to Holy Cross who was ranked #18 in D1AA (now #16)
BSU - They have promise with their QB. Put up good stats against Tennessee but turnovers and fell short. They don't have all the pieces in place. Played well against WMU but let it go and WMU with their new QB & WRs gave them plenty of opportunity and is very beatable when they have to go on the road.
BGSU - Great 1st half in their 1st game against P12. Then got whipped -- and lost to a seemingly good D1AA in many OTs at home, tho. Not good.
Akron - It's Akron. They could move the ball against a high-level MSU D, but 4 turnovers and 1 yard per carry with 99 yards of penalty totally outweighs a decent pass % with no INTs. And virtually losing to a blah D1AA team at home? Sheesh. Mine as well a toilet bowl with them VS UMass.
I can't really argue with the Akron rating. They did show some promise against MSU in the first half both offensive and defensively. One could think had they been able to fix the fumble issues they could have won a few games in what appears to be a very weak MAC this season. That said once Irons left the wheels fell off. I'm not sure how long he will be out, but I saw someone mention they saw him in a walking boat so I imagine no time soon.
-Toledo undefeated
-Ohio & Western have wins over FBS
-Northern Illinois, Eastern, Miami, Akron have FCS wins
- Rest of the conference winless.
- Central’s looked good in spurts, Kent’s played tough conference so can’t punish them too hard, Ball St slots in
over Buffalo & Bowling Green St who lost to FCS
No, I don't expect Akron to stay middle of the pack.
Toledo needs to play tougher competition.
Seems like every year Western starts good, then falls as season goes on :(
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2022 08:22 AM by Bronco'14.)
(09-12-2022 08:18 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: UT
OU
WM
NI
EM
MU
UA
CM
KS
BS
UB
BGS
-Toledo undefeated
-Ohio & Western have wins over FBS
-Northern Illinois, Eastern, Miami, Akron have FCS wins
- Rest of the conference winless.
- Central’s looked good in spurts, Kent’s played tough conference so can’t punish them too hard, Ball St slots in
over Buffalo & Bowling Green St who lost to FCS
No, I don't expect Akron to stay middle of the pack.
Toledo needs to play tougher competition.
Seems like every year Western starts good, then falls as season goes on :(
CMU played lousy football for at least half the game against a good team and deserved to lose. One of our radio crew, a former CMU OL, said he thought we underestimated USA, and I'm inclined to agree. It was pretty clear the team wasn't focused. Our normally solid QB missed open throws, some of the better passes were dropped, and we had some bonehead plays on D and special teams. I suspect the coaches and team leaders are already addressing the issues.
Quote:I can't really argue with the Akron rating. They did show some promise against MSU in the first half both offensive and defensively. One could think had they been able to fix the fumble issues they could have won a few games in what appears to be a very weak MAC this season.
Yeah, MSU made us fumble twice pretty deep in MSU territory. So not shocking ya'd fumble but yeah. Akron is going to need a year to get things going I'd imagine, even if the HC is a good one to stick around and get good recruits.
Quote:Seems like every year Western starts good, then falls as season goes on :(
Well, I wouldn't say we started all that good. "Par" I would say, with both strengths & weaknesses. If we take out Pitt at home due to their starting QB likely not playing, thus likely having a 3rd stringer start (or their veteran 2nd stringer who can't move) -- which makes it not a wild upset if we did, then I'd say if we beat @SJSU, we'd have a great start. The BSU game wasn't impressive with a bad 1st half. This early season though with a new Offense, one can't expect to be on-point out of the gates. Our D wasn't good against BSU who should have a pretty decent O this year, but we help shut them down 2nd half, and our D is supposedly good. Dunno.
With nobody sticking out as great in the MAC, it's anyone's game in the West. These next couple weeks will give us a better picture.
(09-11-2022 10:40 AM)zrb2 Wrote: In my opinion, the Top 15 maybe 20 FCS teams could beat the bottom 25% of FBS teams on any given day. There just isn't a huge difference.
Forget NDSU, they’re on another level from the FCS. The top 5-8 FCS teams are on a level, then there’s quite a drop off through the rest of the ranked teams. There’s Top 15 teams that get destroyed in the playoffs when they go up against the top dogs. Luckily for them James Madison just moved up and others (Sam Houston SU and Jacksonville State) are transitioning as well. It already has been NDSUs title to lose each year, going forward it will be ridiculous. The Patriot League is a joke, and those teams wouldn’t be running through 1/2 of the MAC. Holy Cross runs through a weak conference to the playoffs; last year they scraped by a Sacred Heart team from the 45 scholarship NEC 13-10 then lost to Villanova. Year before they got slaughtered 31-3 by SDSU and 44-27 by Monmouth the year before that.
The top 3 to 5 FCS teams are legit. Bottom P5 to top G5 good. Maybe that number was 10 a decade ago, but id think Toledo would make the final 4 in the FCS year in and year out and we rank in the top say 25 of the G5 on a regular basis. Sagarin adds em all in. Check their rankings.
(09-12-2022 06:10 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: The top 3 to 5 FCS teams are legit. Bottom P5 to top G5 good. Maybe that number was 10 a decade ago, but id think Toledo would make the final 4 in the FCS year in and year out and we rank in the top say 25 of the G5 on a regular basis. Sagarin adds em all in. Check their rankings.
True, the differences are in the scholarship limits and the depth you can develop. FBS gives you 85 full rides, FCS schools only get 63 and many of the kids are on partials. Even inside the FCS some conferences are on reduced limits NEC) or don’t offer any scholarships at all (Pioneer).
PS: Sagarin has Holy Cross ranked in the 30s in regards to FCS schools on the list.
Quote:In my opinion, the Top 15 maybe 20 FCS teams could beat the bottom 25% of FBS teams on any given day. There just isn't a huge difference.
I would not say that. I would say (as the norm) the Top 3-5 would beat the bottom 25% FBS on any given day. And be from small to solid favorites over about 65% of FBS.
The Top 6-10? IMO, a drop-off difference. Top 11-20? You can beat but will be working hard to beat most of the bottom 15% of FBS -- the "league level" you're at in comparison.
