... the Big XII commissioner says, "Here's an offer to join, but I need to know right now or we move on," what do you do?

Pretty sure SDSU's administrators know where they stand with Kliavkoff and the Pac-12, but it seems somewhat risky to call Yormark's bluff with the Big XII almost certainly on more stable ground.

"A bird in the hand"

SDSU is not enough. They need to add Zona. Even so, I think that combo is pretty weak for the Big 12. They got to get the Corners all together to stand out as the fourth power conference, and force UO and UW's hands. Stanford and Cal can sideline themselves indefinitely.

My guess is ESPN doesn't like the late night package without Stanford and Cal at the very least to make it worthwhile for the corner 4s to jump. 18 schools would probably be dilutive even with UO and UW and the travel would still suck for those schools.

I think SDSU waits for a PAC 12 offer nonetheless. The MWC would take them back if everything blows up. They can just negotiate a re-entry fee upon exit.

sdsu won't get an invite without a travel partner

(09-07-2022 03:59 PM)Huan Wrote:  sdsu won't get an invite without a travel partner

Agree. Need at least one more school out west, two even better. If that were to happen and the B12 were to present an offer like that, I'd be temped. The PAC would be best if it stands pat, but the B12 looks to be more stable.

(09-07-2022 03:59 PM)Huan Wrote:  sdsu won't get an invite without a travel partner

Like West Virginia? BYU?

Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you believe San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

(09-07-2022 03:49 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  SDSU is not enough. They need to add Zona. Even so, I think that combo is pretty weak for the Big 12. They got to get the Corners all together to stand out as the fourth power conference, and force UO and UW's hands. Stanford and Cal can sideline themselves indefinitely.

My guess is ESPN doesn't like the late night package without Stanford and Cal at the very least to make it worthwhile for the corner 4s to jump. 18 schools would probably be dilutive even with UO and UW and the travel would still suck for those schools.

I think SDSU waits for a PAC 12 offer nonetheless. The MWC would take them back if everything blows up. They can just negotiate a re-entry fee upon exit.

Idk. If we are looking at a Big-18 with Oregon and Washington, then that conference can most likely lock up an at-large spot every year in addition to the conference champion bid. Two units over 18 schools is more than one unit over 10 schools. Add in the late night window and both FOX and ESPN on board and you have a decent financial offering for the conference. It isn't the SEC/B1G, but it is closer than either the PAC-10 or New Big 12 individually.

(09-07-2022 04:08 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

I would take the 7 year GoR in the PAC so long as they add UH/Zaga as well. SMU is a decent add, but makes me more reluctant. UNLV is probably good enough for me as well.

Also, I need to get half shares, so 15 million at least. And then I'd pay the MWC to opt back in after seven years, like a call option that can be exercised if PAC members start fleeing.

(09-07-2022 03:32 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... the Big XII commissioner says, "Here's an offer to join, but I need to know right now or we move on," what do you do?

Pretty sure SDSU's administrators know where they stand with Kliavkoff and the Pac-12, but it seems somewhat risky to call Yormark's bluff with the Big XII almost certainly on more stable ground.

"A bird in the hand"

I would probably be stalling Yormark while franticly texting the PAC-12 office to see if they were interested. All things being equal for SDSU you would probably rather be the 12th or 10th team in the PAC than the 14th team in the B12. Your Playoff odds are better and you don't have to send your basketball team to Cincinnati, Morgantown or Orlando.

(09-07-2022 04:08 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

I like how these hypothetical threads very quickly often turn into judging the likelihood of the original topic as opposed to just answering the question.

I would call their bluff. The preference for SDSU is the PAC is it is, and it's very unlikely the B12 would make an offer with such a tight deadline, especially considering SDSU can't simply be invited, they need to apply to join. So it would be more of a "sure, we'll start the application process" and then quickly turnaround to calling the PAC in that time.

(09-07-2022 04:07 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 03:59 PM)Huan Wrote:  sdsu won't get an invite without a travel partner

Like West Virginia? BYU?

& UCF?

If they feel confident the PAC-12 is going to invite them I would wait. If they have any doubt of the PAC-12's long term survival I would go to the Big XII.

(09-07-2022 04:08 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

You’d have to take it.

(09-07-2022 04:08 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

I'd take it, and I'd like it. San Diego State isn't angling for a P2 move someday, they just need to get into a stable power conference with schools that are too valuable & successful to be left without meaningful playoff access. The Big XII is more likely to still exist and fit that description in 10 years than the PAC is.

If you are SDSU you accept an invite from the B12 immediately. The Pac-12 as is, might be a more preferred landing spot for the Aztecs but as is for the Pac-12 is only a temporary position. Eventually the B1G is going to come back and finish what they started and then gone will be Oregon, Washington, likely Stanford, perhaps Berkeley at which point it would become a free for all with everyone else trying to seek refuge in the B12. Better to have your seat there already secured than to hope the B12 would be generous enough to give you a second chance after turning them down a short time before.

A move to the Big 12 with Arizona makes the most sense for San Diego State. Stability for about the same revenue.

They'd prefer to be with Cal and Stanford, but will they be there in the Pac-12 come 2030 (heck come 2026)?

These ratings last week tell me Oregon really should be taken by the B1G now (never mind they are in a down cycle):

ND-OSU on ABC (10.5M)
LSU-FSU on ABC (7.55M)
Oregon-Georgia on ABC (6.2M)
Colorado St-Michigan on ABC (3.9M) // wow Michigan really carried this
Penn St-Purdue on FOX (3.5M)
WVU-Pitt on ESPN (3.2M)
Utah-Florida on ESPN (3.0M)

Point is Pac-12 looks very unstable.

(09-07-2022 04:48 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 04:08 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Again, just for fun, the question is what YOU would do in this (likely) hypothetical situation (as opposed to what you San Diego State is likely to do or not do)

I'd take it, and I'd like it. San Diego State isn't angling for a P2 move someday, they just need to get into a stable power conference with schools that are too valuable & successful to be left without meaningful playoff access. The Big XII is more likely to still exist and fit that description in 10 years than the PAC and ACC are

Fixed it for you :)

Definitely agree on that SDSU jumping to Big XII/Conference No. 3 is the way to go.

Just as you said, there is zero chance such a conference would be denied playoff access even if the top tier of College Football was moved out from the NCAA's umbrella

SDSU would certainly prefer the Pac-12, but if the Big 12 provides an invite and they’re just getting crickets from the Pac-12, then they really have no choice outside of accepting that Big 12 invite. If the Big Ten ends up taking more Pac-12 schools down the road, the Big 12 could move on the Four Corners schools and SDSU would effectively be either stuck in the MWC or end up in a new Pac-12 in name that is really just a bunch of other MWC schools plus Washington State and Oregon State.

Now, I think the Pac-12 probably knows this here, so I’m a bit more optimistic about them expanding soon. It almost doesn’t matter if SDSU adds revenue to the Pac-12 or not. They *have* to play defense on the Big 12 here. If the Big Ten expands further and the Big 12 has already taken SDSU off the board, the Pac-12’s already sparse Western options dwindle even more.

(09-07-2022 05:22 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  SDSU would certainly prefer the Pac-12, but if the Big 12 provides an invite and they’re just getting crickets from the Pac-12, then they really have no choice outside of accepting that Big 12 invite. If the Big Ten ends up taking more Pac-12 schools down the road, the Big 12 could move on the Four Corners schools and SDSU would effectively be either stuck in the MWC or end up in a new Pac-12 in name that is really just a bunch of other MWC schools plus Washington State and Oregon State.

Now, I think the Pac-12 probably knows this here, so I’m a bit more optimistic about them expanding soon. It almost doesn’t matter if SDSU adds revenue to the Pac-12 or not. They *have* to play defense on the Big 12 here. If the Big Ten expands further and the Big 12 has already taken SDSU off the board, the Pac-12’s already sparse Western options dwindle even more.

I will quote Jon Wilner on this subject: "If the Pac-12 permits the Big 12 to plant its flag in a campus 90 miles from Mater Dei, Bosco, Serra, Poly, etc, it might as well close up shop." I think it is safe to say that the Pac-12 will not let that happen and I think it safe to say that SDSU would prefer the Pac-12 with the current ten schools.

The travel would obviously be better in the PAC and and they would not have to deal with the annoying California Travel Ban, which does not allow a public school in California to use state funds to travel to a state on the travel ban list. It just so happens that every Big 12 school is in a state that is banned for travel using state funds.

Kliavkoff said that they would not address expansion until the media contract was done, but that they are talking with expansion targets. Obviously, the concern is the Big Ten and keeping the ten schools together. I think SDSU would say "no" to the Big 12 and wait on the PAC to get their media deal done.

(09-07-2022 05:22 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  SDSU would certainly prefer the Pac-12, but if the Big 12 provides an invite and they’re just getting crickets from the Pac-12, then they really have no choice outside of accepting that Big 12 invite. If the Big Ten ends up taking more Pac-12 schools down the road, the Big 12 could move on the Four Corners schools and SDSU would effectively be either stuck in the MWC or end up in a new Pac-12 in name that is really just a bunch of other MWC schools plus Washington State and Oregon State.

Now, I think the Pac-12 probably knows this here, so I’m a bit more optimistic about them expanding soon. It almost doesn’t matter if SDSU adds revenue to the Pac-12 or not. They *have* to play defense on the Big 12 here. If the Big Ten expands further and the Big 12 has already taken SDSU off the board, the Pac-12’s already sparse Western options dwindle even more.

That would really only explain why Oregon State and Washington State would want to invite SDSU to the PAC. Why would the other 8 members care if Oregon State and WSU have more playmates after they leave the conference?