(09-16-2022 09:40 PM)Huan Wrote: Both of you two could be right.
The rBig8 would have taken a big hit without OUT. Media distribution would likely been no more than 15 mil a year and additional conference payout could be halved as well, resulting in something on the order of 25 millions in total distribution per rBig8. If these estimates are close to reality, that is pretty grim. If $25M was the benchmark being used for expansion such that the prorata and extension means network payout remains $27M then additional conferences revenue apart from network contract could average each of the nBig12 close to $35M each. Still far short of $45M each but still well ahead of the projected $25M each.
I believe it is the projected mean distribution that was used for adding the new 4 and likely any additional members. This bar can be met by 2-3 western additions. There are no available teams that can bring more than $45M to the conference.
Is this enough for us to be p3? I don’t think so but we should be ahead of the pac10, and when the ACC loses its premiere programs then we could be ahead of rACC.
it is a very simple concept for anyone that is not a dupe or that does not use G5 "math"
with the current Big 12 contract it AVERAGES $20 million per member per year for 13 years
that contract scales about $1 million per year from below average for the first 6 years or so to average for the 7th year to above average for the final 6 years
right now the Big 12 TV contract is paying about $24 to $25 million a year and at the end of he contract it will probably be about $27 million per year
yet somehow the Big 12 gets a distribution per member of $42.6 million per member in the last one
if the Big 12 had been stupid enough to add two members much less 4 members in the recent past the TV contract would have only paid the TV MONEY so it would have been paying in the $22 to $25 million per year per new member range because it is only "pro rata" for the TV money
so when you distribute $426 million to 10 members and you are stupid and add 4 new members that only bring $$26 million or so each well that is $104 million
now you have $426 million plus $104 million for a total of $530 million but it is divided by 14 teams now for an average of $37.86 million.......so a major loss in revenues for the current Big 12 members
and yes there would have been a "buy in", but in the past the length of time the new members would have been in the conference vs the length of the buy in simply meant that the Big 12 existing members would make some additional money at first, but in the later years as the buy in ended and the new members got full shares the reduction in payouts to current members in those later years would have been larger than the new extra money earlier during the buy in years
G5ers answer this with stupidity like:
well new members could go to The Sugar Bowl right int he first year doh!.....yes and the Big 12 gets no extra dollars for that it just means that a different team went to a bowl game that the Big 12 was going to send a team to no matter what
or....new members could be the one that makes the playoffs from the Big 12 doh......yes and the Big 12 gets $50 million every single year from the playoffs even if they never send a team to the actual playoffs
they they come in with their real "ammo" (of stupidity).....but you get $6 million for having a team in the playoffs!!!.....yes and $6 million for a team in the playoffs divided by 14 teams does not come close to making up for the loss in revenues for an existing member for adding new members long term
or the real winner.....well there can be more bowl games now for the Big 12.....yea and the Muffler Bowl pays out $1.4 million per year so an extra $100,000 for the Big 12 getting the Muffler Bowl makes no difference in the loss of revenues long term for adding new members under the existing contract
only a total dunce cannot grasp the concept that 4 new members each bringing in $18 million LESS than a full distribution is not going to be made up for with $6 million in playoff money per year (assuming that the only way the Big 12 would get that is the new members would make the playoffs and the Big 12 current members would not) and it is not going to be made up for by adding a Muffler Bowl contract that pays $1.4 million per year
I mean only a total dunce cannot look at a TV contract that pays in the mid to upper $20 million per year vs a total conference distribution of lower $40s and not understand that adding more and more members bringing in "pro rata" TV money just means a lower and lower payout
I mean anyone that cannot understand the above is just a flat fool
****
now we get to the new TV contract that the Big 12 is looking at....and here come the safe space G5ers that want to add Boise, WSU, Oregon State, maybe CSU and Memphis, one of the Academies and on and on
and their idea is instead of negotiating a TV contract for EXISTING MEMBERS that gets you the most money possible for EXISTING MEMBERS lets degrade that TV contract by putting a lot of "pro rata" garbage in there so TV partners have the uncertainty of what the Big 12 contract might cost them in the future if safe space G5ers start adding every program under the sun that has shown a pulse and exercising that "pro rata" clause
are there really people out there that are foolish enough to think that the media partners are not going to hold back dollars from EXISTING MEMBERS in a new contract of they are looking at the possibility of a conference that just gets stupid and starts adding new members to the tune of $30 million each per year
we can look at the complete and total lack of excitement that Fox and ESPN had for the Big 12 adding members in the past and KNOW that is a stupid idea from that alone
next we can use simple logic that is the media partners wanted to pay to have new members in the Big 12 they would state that RIGHT NOW while they are negotiating a contract not just leave it open ended
even if the media partners were stupid enough to agree to any of that nonsense you still have to deal with the reality above that was the whole reason it was a money loser for the Big 12 to expand in the past
G5ers simply cannot understand that the more programs you pile in your dream P6 safe space conference the less money you get per member from the CFP and from the major conference bowl games
again the Big 12 NOW gets $50 million per year from the CFP just for existing and they get $50 million 2 out of 3 years for The Sugar Bowl
so the CFP is expanding and lets say that $50 million per year goes to $120 million per year for the P5 conferences
for the Big 12 with 12 members in the near future after Texas and OU leave that is $10 million per member per year
lets say the Big 12 renews The Sugar Bowl for $72 million for 2 out of every 3 years
so that is $14 million per year per member averaged over those three years ($72 million X 2 = $144 million / 12 members / 3 years)
so that is $14 million right there in additional revenues per member per year that does not come from the TV contract
if you are a dumb G5 safe spacer and you want to get the conference to 18 well lets do the math on that
you have $120 million per year from the CFP divided by 18 = $6.67 million or a loss per member of $3.33 million per year
and you have $144 / 18 / 3 = $2.67 million or a loss per year of $1.33 million
so you have cost yourselves $4.33 million per year because you wanted to add Boise, WSU, Memphis, USF, SDSU, and Oregon State
you can add in another $670,000 at least in other conference money from sponsorships, other bowl games, and the like and probably more than that so at least $5 million per year per member for going the G5er safety conference route
and then here come the fools with "pro rate doh" "pro rata doh"
but again that is TV MONEY ONLY......if the Big 12 was to get a TV contract that averaged $35 million per year and you add in the $14 million per year per member above well that is a payout of $49 million per year
so you have 12 members getting an average of $49 million per year of TOTAL distributions with TV money making up an average of $35 million of that
only a total and complete fool thinks of you add in 6 additional members that get "pro rata" TV money of an average of $35 million per member that the existing conference members will not lose a lot of money......about $5 million per year as explained above
because the media partners are not going to sigh a contract that pays Big 12 members $35 million on average and then for some stupid reason agree that if the Big 12 adds new members they will pay $35 million per year PLUS another $14 million per year so that current Big 12 members do not lose money
that is just a totally and completely stupid thing to think.....if there were programs out there that media partners wanted to actually pay $49 million per year for they would already have plans for those programs
this is the part that safe space conference G5ers can never explain.....how adding new members that bring in $14 to $18 million less in total money (because there is no new CFP or Sugar Bowl or AlamoBowl money for adding new members) does not cost the existing members of the conference money
they just repeat "pro rata doh!!!" and "we are worth it doh!!!"
or they are so sad and pathetic they would take $5 million or more a year in reduced payouts just to add more members with the failed idea that the conference will benefit from that of more members leave in the future
