If the new 12 team playoff will take the top 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams, would this cause the trend of mega conferences (SEC & B1G) to slow or even members from those conferences look to other smaller conferences (PAC12, Big 12, ACC) in order to increase their chance to make the playoff?

I think the ACC, B1G, and SEC won't make anymore moves for the time being. The Big XII most likely holds as well. The PAC-10 might cause some realignment if they add SDSU and SMU but they may choose to just hold at 10 since their champion is basically guaranteed a spot in the playoff each year in a 6+6 format. G5 will only make minor moves if PAC-10 takes those 2.

To make a longer explanation short, no.

1. money drives realignment, not championship, competition, rivalries, or fan travels.
2. guaranteed money is better than possible money.

I doubt a 12 team playoff will either encourage or discourage realignment.


The rumors about a 4 team playoff in the early 2010s might have encouraged realignment since conference championship games had previously been viewed as a negative to getting into a national title game. See Nebraska 1996, Kansas State 1998, both Texas and Tennessee 2001, and Missouri 2007. Oklahoma State in 2011 was the only team that was shut out of the national title game because they didn’t have a conference title game, and that occurred after the realignment chaos.

(09-07-2022 09:53 AM)cornborn85 Wrote:  If the new 12 team playoff will take the top 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams, would this cause the trend of mega conferences (SEC & B1G) to slow or even members from those conferences look to other smaller conferences (PAC12, Big 12, ACC) in order to increase their chance to make the playoff?

This is a relevant question. My answer is, keep an eye on the FBS independents not named Notre Dame.

Other than travel assistance out west...I don't know why the Big 10 would want to add more competition for playoff spots within the conference. But there has certainly been smoke and it could happen.

If your Ohio State or Michigan...do you really want to bring in 2-4 more teams like Oregon, Stanford, etc. ? Just more competition within the conference.

Assuming no more B10 expansion in near term....I would guess...

PAC adds SDSU and SMU. Would be at 12.

Big 12 adds Memphis and either USF/Boise to replace TX and OU, further fills out eastern side of conference, still plenty of room to add 4 corners in the future, and keeps them at 14 teams.

(09-07-2022 09:53 AM)cornborn85 Wrote:  If the new 12 team playoff will take the top 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams, would this cause the trend of mega conferences (SEC & B1G) to slow or even members from those conferences look to other smaller conferences (PAC12, Big 12, ACC) in order to increase their chance to make the playoff?

Expansion has already allayed the fears of those that might move for access purposes. In the larger conferences, an at-large is going to be just as much of a given as the conference champion slot is. Two units for 16 teams is better than one unit for 10 teams.

I think it could slow expansion considerably unless the fundamental value of a conference is enough to force a move anyways, but when considering distributions there isn't much need to go beyond ten teams (minimum required for a conference championship). However, if you can demonstrate that a team is just as likely to pick up an at-large spot in a 16 team conference as they are to make it in a 10-team conference, then you might see some more movement.

(09-07-2022 10:57 AM)Boots Wrote:  Big 12 adds Memphis and either USF/Boise to replace TX and OU, further fills out eastern side of conference, still plenty of room to add 4 corners in the future, and keeps them at 14 teams.

The big 12 already added Cincy, UH, UCF and BYU. A year ago. So, um, are they going to replace OU/texas again?

(09-07-2022 10:57 AM)Boots Wrote:  Other than travel assistance out west...I don't know why the Big 10 would want to add more competition for playoff spots within the conference. But there has certainly been smoke and it could happen.

If your Ohio State or Michigan...do you really want to bring in 2-4 more teams like Oregon, Stanford, etc. ? Just more competition within the conference.

Assuming no more B10 expansion in near term....I would guess...

PAC adds SDSU and SMU. Would be at 12.

Big 12 adds Memphis and either USF/Boise to replace TX and OU, further fills out eastern side of conference, still plenty of room to add 4 corners in the future, and keeps them at 14 teams.

lol... B12 will not be adding those teams, and certainly not to replace TX and OU. LMAO.

(09-07-2022 10:57 AM)Boots Wrote:  Other than travel assistance out west...I don't know why the Big 10 would want to add more competition for playoff spots within the conference. But there has certainly been smoke and it could happen. ...

"Competition for playoff spots in the CFP12" don't seem likely to be a major factor in the decision whether to add 0, 2 or 4 PAC-10 schools. After all, to the extent that the new schools are posting a credible challenge to take that spot, they also increase the prospects for the Big 10 to have more schools placed into at-large positions.

(09-07-2022 09:53 AM)cornborn85 Wrote:  If the new 12 team playoff will take the top 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams, would this cause the trend of mega conferences (SEC & B1G) to slow or even members from those conferences look to other smaller conferences (PAC12, Big 12, ACC) in order to increase their chance to make the playoff?

Not knowing the details on what G5 conferences and independants will receive from the new format, could affect Army, UConn, UMass desire to join a conference. Not because of expectations to make the playoffs but for better access to the growing pot of revenue.

(09-07-2022 11:29 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 09:53 AM)cornborn85 Wrote:  If the new 12 team playoff will take the top 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams, would this cause the trend of mega conferences (SEC & B1G) to slow or even members from those conferences look to other smaller conferences (PAC12, Big 12, ACC) in order to increase their chance to make the playoff?

Not knowing the details on what G5 conferences and independants will receive from the new format, could affect Army, UConn, UMass desire to join a conference. Not because of expectations to make the playoffs but for better access to the growing pot of revenue.

We have a bingo!

UCONN would have to find some conference that’s willing to take them as a football only member. With how awful their football team is, I think that’s very unlikely to happen.


And since UCONN isn’t going to win any conference championships, I don’t think they’d care about joining a conference where they’d be guaranteed a 20% chance at making the playoffs if they win the conference.

(09-07-2022 11:36 AM)Poster Wrote:  UCONN would have to find some conference that’s willing to take them as a football only member. With how awful their football team is, I think that’s very unlikely to happen.


And since UCONN isn’t going to win any conference championships, I don’t think they’d care about joining a conference where they’d be guaranteed a 20% chance at making the playoffs if they win the conference.

I agree. I would even go a step further in breaking down the options these three schools have, which is hardly any.

The only conferences that would be on these three schools radar would be the American, C-USA and the MAC

Army doesn't want to try the C-USA experience again, and I doubt they'd want to be in the same conference as Navy, and potentially Air Force(should the AAC snag up Air Force and Colorado State in the future).

UCONN doesn't want to be part of the American again, and UMass doesn't want to be part of the MAC again, even if both schools were added for football-only.

I would take it another step further, and say that if San Diego State, SMU, Memphis, USF and Bosie State left their respective conferences, nothing would happen in terms of adding new teams.

The MW would not want to add UTEP or New Mexico State. They would only add Gonzaga if they wanted to strengthen the conference in basketball. The American would not add FIU to replace USF unless they really wanted to have a lock on the Miami market, which they do with FAU, even though they are not actually in the city of Miami. Aside from that, the only other reason they would add FIU is that it would allow their rivalry with FAU to continue uninterrupted.

(09-07-2022 11:14 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 10:57 AM)Boots Wrote:  Big 12 adds Memphis and either USF/Boise to replace TX and OU, further fills out eastern side of conference, still plenty of room to add 4 corners in the future, and keeps them at 14 teams.

The big 12 already added Cincy, UH, UCF and BYU. A year ago. So, um, are they going to replace OU/texas again?

There was a vocalized and open possible B12 "2nd round of expansion" always under review. Bowlsby discussed this openly as did many other B12 presidents/ADs. The most mentioned names were Memphis, Boise, USF, and SMU. Many believed when TX/OU actually left instead of going back to 12 they would add to stay at 14.

Now granted some things have changed the landscape. With the B10 landing USC/UCLA...the 4 corner PAC schools may be in play for B12 if PAC blows up.

But what happens if the PAC stays in tact and the B12 can't poach them?

I know for a fact that the Memphis administration was talking to the Big 12 and prepping/staying ready for a possible B12 2nd round of expansion.

Does the Big 12 go back to the possible original plan with any of Memphis, Boise, USF, SMU if they can't land the 4 corners?

Maybe not, but that is not crazy.

(09-07-2022 12:30 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 11:36 AM)Poster Wrote:  UCONN would have to find some conference that’s willing to take them as a football only member. With how awful their football team is, I think that’s very unlikely to happen.


And since UCONN isn’t going to win any conference championships, I don’t think they’d care about joining a conference where they’d be guaranteed a 20% chance at making the playoffs if they win the conference.

I agree. I would even go a step further in breaking down the options these three schools have, which is hardly any.

The only conferences that would be on these three schools radar would be the American, C-USA and the MAC

Army doesn't want to try the C-USA experience again, and I doubt they'd want to be in the same conference as Navy, and potentially Air Force(should the AAC snag up Air Force and Colorado State in the future).

UCONN doesn't want to be part of the American again, and UMass doesn't want to be part of the MAC again, even if both schools were added for football-only.

I would take it another step further, and say that if San Diego State, SMU, Memphis, USF and Bosie State left their respective conferences, nothing would happen in terms of adding new teams.

The MW would not want to add UTEP or New Mexico State. They would only add Gonzaga if they wanted to strengthen the conference in basketball. The American would not add FIU to replace USF unless they really wanted to have a lock on the Miami market, which they do with FAU, even though they are not actually in the city of Miami. Aside from that, the only other reason they would add FIU is that it would allow their rivalry with FAU to continue uninterrupted.

UMass would be fine with going back to the MAC as a football only member. There's just currently no reason for the MAC to want to have football only members.

If they need to have 14 football playing members to get maximum return on the new CFP shares (this isn't a given, just something I saw Kit-Kat throw out in another thread) then you could potentially see a WKU+UMass Football only to get up to 14...but at that point they'd likely give WKU+MTSU another go first anyway.

ACC needs to add at least 2 more schools to get to 16. Best options for a 2024 add would be WVU, Cincinnati. After a new BigXII contract is done, it will be too late if the XII Adds a long term GOR. At 16(or more) with Top ACC schools still intact ( seems everyone talks like 8 are highly desirable) the ACC clearly become a P3 conference.

(09-07-2022 02:13 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  ACC needs to add at least 2 more schools to get to 16. Best options for a 2024 add would be WVU, Cincinnati. After a new BigXII contract is done, it will be too late if the XII Adds a long term GOR. At 16(or more) with Top ACC schools still intact ( seems everyone talks like 8 are highly desirable) the ACC clearly become a P3 conference.

Whats so special about 16 teams? They need to add brands on the level of Texas, OU and Notre Dame. Good luck with that!

Does ARMY even look at joining a conference (FB only) in the same way as your typical university?

Because they are ARMY-- I say they do not. I expect them to stay INDY-- BUT I think any G5 league would take them before hanging up the phone.

(09-07-2022 05:15 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Does ARMY even look at joining a conference (FB only) in the same way as your typical university?

Because they are ARMY-- I say they do not. I expect them to stay INDY-- BUT I think any G5 league would take them before hanging up the phone.

They would be added to the AAC in a hot minute if possible.