If the big schools break away in football only, could we see a system of European soccer style promotion and relegation?

Benefits of this include:

-It allows a "Premier League" of the biggest and best brands.

-It means only the biggest money schools make the highest playoff.

-It means the schools can still play lower division schools for buy games and even maintain rivalries with demoted schools.

-It leaves the door open for declining programs (on and off the field) such as perhaps a Miami to be demoted from the premier league.

-On the opposite side of the coin, developing potential powerhouse programs such as a Liberty can make the show and add to the league.

-It concretes the largest brands together and there are none that don't carry their own weight.

They could do this and leave basketball (and the rest) alone, which wouldn't kill their golden goose, which is the NCAA Tournament. There'd still be a place for Gonzaga, Villanova and the Big East without rendering them irrelevant.

Unlike Premier League soccer, they could promote and relegate every two years to allow for series home and homes.

(09-06-2022 08:38 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  If the big schools break away in football only, could we see a system of European soccer style promotion and relegation?

No, we couldn't see that.

You didn't even give a reason why.

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Recruiting would be even more complicated. How are you supposed to recruit in that system?
Revenue would fluctuate wildly year to year. How are you supposed to budget?

I do wonder if teams like Alabama and Michigan will seriously be willing to share a conference with teams like Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Northwestern and Rutgers.

I don't think there's any scenario where Alabama and Michigan will allow themselves to be relegated if they have two down seasons, though.

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Because we didn't start out with promotion and relegation before the money got this big.

Also, promotion & relegation works best with single-sport clubs, it would be a right royal mess with an athletic department ...

... but for goodness sake, American professional soccer doesn't even use promotion and relegation.

(09-06-2022 08:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Recruiting would be even more complicated. How are you supposed to recruit in that system?
Revenue would fluctuate wildly year to year. How are you supposed to budget?

You tell recruits to expect the best or play for a chance to get promoted.

I think there's a good chance that the historically strongest programs from the Big Ten and SEC will break away to form a superleague.

Presumably the superleague would have some kind of process where you could get voted out by the other members (doesn't every conference?), but in practice nobody would get kicked out of the superleague for just two down seasons. If your team has 20 down seasons like Tennessee, I guess you never know.

I do not think the big brand schools will ever want to subject themselves to possible relegation, so IMO this is not a likely idea.

Also, IMO the "traditional" aspect of college football is often underestimated. College football is about 100-year-old rivalries. Schools in the B1G and SEC value their longstanding relationships with their geographical and cultural fellows.

For example, IMO schools like LSU and Alabama has zero interest in seeing Mississippi State, a team they have eached played more than 100 times, get relegated and replaced on their schedules by say a UCF or a Houston with which it has no history.

(09-06-2022 09:00 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Because we didn't start out with promotion and relegation before the money got this big.

Also, promotion & relegation works best with single-sport clubs, it would be a right royal mess with an athletic department ...

... but for goodness sake, American professional soccer doesn't even use promotion and relegation.

Yeah I don't see promotion/relegation happening. Consolidation...almost undoubtedly.

(09-06-2022 08:59 AM)Poster Wrote:  I do wonder if teams like Alabama and Michigan will seriously be willing to share a conference with teams like Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Northwestern and Rutgers.

I don't think there's any scenario where Alabama and Michigan will allow themselves to be relegated if they have two down seasons, though.

One of those 4 is not like the others, having played in 12 straight bowls and averaging a top 25 FPI ranking (8th in the SEC) over the past 5 years and last 10 years

No, because it's antithetical to American sports business. Fans have been asking for it in MLS for decades but it won't happen because millionaires will not put their money forth just to be relegated. In Europe, these teams weren't started from millions, they were just put together by locals. New owners are willing to accept this because they know what the current terms are.

This is all about money, and Miami during their down seasons makes more money than Liberty does during their best seasons.

A new conference that would permanently leave historic weaklings like Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State behind- that, on the other hand, I think is a very strong possibility. In fact, that actually would fit pretty well with the current standard of money above everything- the most profitable teams in conferences might get tired of having to share their money with teams that don't produce money.

(09-06-2022 09:03 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 08:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Recruiting would be even more complicated. How are you supposed to recruit in that system?
Revenue would fluctuate wildly year to year. How are you supposed to budget?

You tell recruits to expect the best or play for a chance to get promoted.

That's what happens now.

To points made by others, even the biggest brands like Ohio State and Alabama that would be the last teams that you'd ever think would get relegated don't even want to take that chance. They want 100%, unambiguous, guaranteed money and access. That's what they plan their entire athletic department budgets on for years and even decades at a time. We saw what just one COVID-disrupted season did to throw off the financial standings of even the highest revenue generating athletic departments. (If anything, the highest revenue generating athletic departments ended up worse off because their spending assumes in-person ticket revenue that was reduced or wiped out during the COVID season, whereas lower generating athletic departments that don't have as much ticket sales weren't impacted to the same extent.) Even the SEC, which probably had the most "normal" year in terms of games played and attendance during the COVID season, provided cash advances to all of their members based on future conference revenue because it was so disruptive.

So, these athletic departments just saw what one COVID season did to their financial standings. Now, imagine if these athletic departments got slammed financially in the same manner not because of a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic, but rather because a bunch of kids went 5-7 in a football season.

No one wants to do that. It doesn't matter if you're Ohio State or Mississippi State. These schools want total and complete elimination of any downside risk (and that's even more apparent after the past few years). Guarantees, guarantees, guarantees, guarantees. Repeat that over and over and over again with respect to the power schools.

Frank, I'm not suggesting that 5-7 teams get relegated, but the worst of the worst and we're only talking 2-4 at the most over a rolling 2 -year period.

(09-06-2022 09:06 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 09:00 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 08:52 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  You didn't even give a reason why.

Because we didn't start out with promotion and relegation before the money got this big.

Also, promotion & relegation works best with single-sport clubs, it would be a right royal mess with an athletic department ...

... but for goodness sake, American professional soccer doesn't even use promotion and relegation.

Yeah I don't see promotion/relegation happening. Consolidation...almost undoubtedly.

Yeah, the question about consolidation is the pace. Consolidation will increase the market power of schools at the expense of media companies, so once the money growth slows down under the current structure, they'll have to got off the dime and tackle consolidation.

(09-06-2022 08:38 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  If the big schools break away in football only, could we see a system of European soccer style promotion and relegation?

Benefits of this include:

-It allows a "Premier League" of the biggest and best brands.

-It means only the biggest money schools make the highest playoff.

-It means the schools can still play lower division schools for buy games and even maintain rivalries with demoted schools.

-It leaves the door open for declining programs (on and off the field) such as perhaps a Miami to be demoted from the premier league.

-On the opposite side of the coin, developing potential powerhouse programs such as a Liberty can make the show and add to the league.

-It concretes the largest brands together and there are none that don't carry their own weight.

They could do this and leave basketball (and the rest) alone, which wouldn't kill their golden goose, which is the NCAA Tournament. There'd still be a place for Gonzaga, Villanova and the Big East without rendering them irrelevant.

Unlike Premier League soccer, they could promote and relegate every two years to allow for series home and homes.

I'm pretty sure the Big East and A10 would have a home in the Breakaway for Basketball. The Big East could bring in former football schools SMU, USF, Memphis ,Temple,Tulane that had a Big East invite or membership before becoming the AAC

I'm reasonably sure the A-10 would have to drop some of its dead weight, possibly cutting in half as a new conference is formed.

(09-06-2022 09:31 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Frank, I'm not suggesting that 5-7 teams get relegated, but the worst of the worst and we're only talking 2-4 at the most over a rolling 2 -year period.

Even then, no one wants to take that risk. That's simply not in the self-interest of anyone in power in college sports (or any American sports, for that matter).

As an Illinois fan, I get that I'm privileged here that my alma mater was a founding member of the Big Ten 120-plus years ago. It probably grates a lot of schools that have performed well on-the-field that a school like Illinois or places like Rutgers and Vandy are in the Big Ten and SEC for reasons that have nothing to do with on-the-field achievement.

So, I understand the emotional reasons why a promotion/relegation system is proposed virtually every single week (if not multiple times per week) on this forum. Fans that think their schools are "deserving" of a higher place on the pecking order want to see some pathway to get to that higher place and move down the "undeserving" schools.

However, I also think people don't quite understand what makes a "good bad" team. For example, schools like Illinois and Rutgers are basically perfect to be last place teams: top academic flagship schools in major recruiting states that are also home to lots of Big Ten alums that bring in major TV markets that directly translate into revenue for the BTN. They are like, well, the value of the Chicago Bears and New York Jets with respect to the NFL (also terrible teams in big markets that happen to share the fan bases of Illinois and Rutgers). I'd say a similar thing for Vandy or schools like Missouri or Kentucky in the SEC, too.

Now, if you want to say that the very top brands will form a separate closed-off Super League, I wouldn't put it past that to occur. That actually makes financial sense for those particular schools even though I think that would be terrible for the sport. However, when we're looking at "replacement level" schools that the bottom of a league, Ohio State would definitely rather have Illinois there instead of Northern Illinois and Alabama would definitely rather have Vandy there instead of Middle Tennessee State regardless of performance in any given year.

My guess on what a Southern superconference might look like

Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson (which would not have even been considered for this conference a decade ago)

Here is what a Northern Superleague might look like
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Nebraska
USCw
Miami (Fl)
Notre Dame
Some random 8th team


All of these teams are considered perpetual powers, except for the Northern superleague possibly selecting some random 8th team just to round things out. I put Miami (Fl) in the Northern superleague because it's basically a Northern city culturally.

There's no scenario where Liberty will get into a superleague.

I don't think these leagues would technically leave the NCAA, but they'd probably force the playoff committee to give them about 8 out of 12 playoff spots every year. (Regardless of whether they'd deserve it.) If the playoffs expand to 24 teams, I wouldn't be surprised if the superleagues demand that all of their members get an autobid, even if they went 0-12. As a "compromise", maybe they'd allow the playoff committee to not invite the worst team in each superleague.


The purpose of these leagues would not be to be inclusive or give every team a fair chance. In fact, the purpose of this superleagues would be quite the opposite- the leagues would be intended to exclude teams.

I guess that a team could theoretically play its way into a superleague by playing as well as Clemson (who would not have been included in a superleague 10 years ago) has played recently, but that would be the exception and not the norm.