(09-07-2022 09:03 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 05:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-07-2022 04:35 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 09:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-06-2022 09:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Understood, but by the same token, this doesn’t mean that the Wake Forests of the world should just roll over, which seems to be what the fans of ACC schools that want to leave are implying every time they bring it up. The ACC legitimately owns TV rights of their schools that are worth hundreds of millions of dollars or even over a billion dollars in the free market for the next 14 years. That has been my point in all of these discussions: people are sandbagging the *scale* of what the ACC is contractually entitled to here in the name of, “Well, doesn’t Wake want a nice relationship with FSU later on?” If we’re talking about several hundred million or over a billion dollars in damages, I honestly don’t think Wake or any other left behind ACC school cares. Wake *knows* they’re screwed, so they would reasonably seek to extract every penny that they can. Why the heck would any school care about how a another school that is openly and actively trying to screw their league feels about them? UT left the Big 12 after that league gave them everything. UCLA left without even telling its own flagship school of its own system!

I’m generally not cynical, but when it comes to conference realignment, history says get what’s yours while you can. Relationships are meaningless now. The Big Ten just took a shiv to the Pac-12’s back. How could Wake Forest trust a single thing that FSU says when, ultimately, FSU is looking for a *favor* from Wake (allowing FSU out of the GOR) so that FSU leave and make Wake *worse* off. That still doesn’t compute in my mind no matter how many times I look at it. If I’m Wake, BC or anyone else behind, I would tell them that if FSU wants to get richer (which is entirely what this is about), then FSU’s words are meaningless without paying what’s due to the rest of the ACC. Money talks and BS walks.

Well theoretically Wake is better off financially and in the same conference they will be in during 2037 a number of years early.

Theoretically that would be correct, however it's just not Wake Forest that needs to have it's palm greased. You may have to duplicate what ever amount is requested times 10 to cover all of the other ACC schools that may not make the grade. What entity is going to make the payments? The B1G or the SEC? ESPN or FOX. FSU? Where does the money come from to make Wake financially better off? Keep in mind that ESPN is still contracted to pay Wake Forest and all of the other ACC teams over and above any potential GOR settlement for the next 14 years.

First, my assumption is that ESPN makes more money moving a few brands to the SEC. That's a big assumption. They will get more advertising revenue for those brand matchups. The question is whether that offsets the cost and loss of revenue for the ACC ads.
Second, I think its pretty clear the ACC is currently below market.
Third, it logically follows that the ACC contract (as long as too many schools didn't leave) would remain at least the same per school.
Fourth, the remaining schools get paid at least the exit fee for agreeing to allow schools to leave and get out of the GOR.

So Wake, etc. get the same from ESPN and end up ahead because they get payments for the exit fees even before any payments for the GOR release.

If you are talking about 7 or 8 teams exiting, that destroys the conference and you would have to have JR's P3 for them to go to in order to get the same money as they would in the ACC. That's probably too many moving parts to happen.

It's definitely a step down for ESPN if you replace, say, 3 FSU games a year with 3 VT or NCState games a year. But is FSU-LSU really better than Florida-Texas A&M or OU-UGA? Especially as you go later into the season, at least lately FSU has been an afterthought. FSU is a good brand, no doubt, but they a whole lot closer to #10 in a theoretical 17 team SEC than they are to #5. OU or texas, ok, you can make a strong case for them generating a whole lot of top tier matchups, texas has proven for a decade + that they don't need to be very good to draw a ton of eyeballs. But FSU is a clear step below that.

So, hurt ACC quite a bit to help the SEC a little bit. I was already really skeptical of this idea, but the more I think about it the more I don't see really much upside to anybody except FSU. Which means they're on the hook all by themselves for the $1-2b total exit amount...which means they'd better get used to the thought of being in the ACC for another 14 years.

When we turn this argument around, with no exit fees/GoR blocking things, I fully expect that in the early 2030's FSU will announce that they're joining the SEC once the GoR expires.

Not sure where you came up with that in terms of FSU's relative brand value. Perhaps due to the Noles being at a relative low point due to the 2017-2021 piss-poor run. When firings on all cylinders...there are only a handful of schools that would put as many eyes on TV's as FSU. Even when they're down...the numbers are impressive. Throw them in the SEC and Doak would be rocking. Hope we all get the chance to live to see it someday.