Now that the CFP looks like it is going to expand to 12, I think we will see Notre Dame officially stay independent.
Although the B1G has had conversations with Oregon and Washington, I believe these are more exploratory in nature and ultimately serve to destabilize the Pac-12. Ultimately for financial reasons, the B1G decides to stay at 16.
The Big 12 at this point has no leverage on the corner 4 schools and decides to stay at 12.
The SEC and ACC also stand pat.
I'm going back and forth as to whether the Pac-12 will stay at 10 or expand to 12, but my gut tells me ESPN is pushing for 12 (based on some comments by Burke Magnus). Therefore, the Pac-12 adds SDSU for the SoCal market and UNLV for the Vegas market. SMU is not selected as ESPN tells the Pac-12 to steer towards Vegas and leave their AAC property alone.
The MW looks around but doesn't find anyone that moves the needle and decides to stay at 10.
Gonzaga is then faced with a further dilemma: with the Pac-12 and Big 12 stable at 12 and the MW and WCC both weakened, the Zags decide to join the Big East.
The WCC elects to add Seattle to get back to 9 schools (at the behest of St. Mary's who would prefer to keep the league small).
The WAC elects to stay at 10 members.

Give it up.

Stick with your day job.

Become a weatherman----- they keep their job even when wrong.

This actually seems pretty reasonable. But most posters here don't want reason or logic, so we'll see..

I don’t care if they end up wrong. I like reading these threads. It’s better informed speculation on the domino effect than most.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Big 12 at this point has no leverage on the corner 4 schools and decides to stay at 12.

The Big XII may stay at 12 for a few months, but it's entirely possible that they'll expand at some point between now and 2026. I'd put the odds at 75/25 in favor of an expansion announcement by 9/1/25, and 50/50 by 9/1/23.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The SEC and ACC also stand pat.

I wouldn't expect them to "stand pat" because there are too many reasons for the ACC to keep up with the Jones's by adding 1 or 2 teams to stay even with the SEC and Big Ten.

A strong case could be made for the ACC to add two schools, giving them 16 P5 teams plus Notre Dame. Their best option would be to poach two of these three P5 schools from the Big XII: Cincy/UCF/WVU.

Plan B would be to take two of the best available G5 schools in the eastern U.S. This would be an appealing option for the ACC, even though the FB teams are less competitive, since the conference could add three of the largest market areas in the eastern U.S., such as Philadelphia, Tampa/St. Pete, and metropolitan NYC.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I'm going back and forth as to whether the Pac-12 will stay at 10 or expand to 12, but my gut tells me ESPN is pushing for 12 (based on some comments by Burke Magnus). Therefore, the Pac-12 adds SDSU for the SoCal market and UNLV for the Vegas market. SMU is not selected as ESPN tells the Pac-12 to steer towards Vegas and leave their AAC property alone.

Agree that the PAC will probably expand to 12 sooner, rather than later, and would expect an expansion announcement within the next 12 months.

It's also possible that the PAC could expand to 14 or even 16 schools, although they might opt to do it in stages, adding two fairly soon and 2-4 more within the next few years. Once they acclimate to the idea of inviting two MWC schools to join the PAC, the idea of adding two more might not be so foreign to them.

The core PAC schools (the "PAC-8") played in the same conference with Idaho and Montana - which are now FCS schools - for 36 seasons (from 1922 to 1958). Many of the current MWC schools would be considered much stronger candidates than Idaho and Montana are at this point.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The MW looks around but doesn't find anyone that moves the needle and decides to stay at 10.

Disagree, for multiple reasons:

• Dropping to 10 members would weaken the MWC and put them at risk of dropping down into the second tier of G5 conferences.
  .
• Not only that, but it would have an adverse effect on their viewership and broadcasting revenue, due to the loss of two of their best markets (e.g., San Diego).
  .
• The MWC would have several different ("+2") expansion options:
  
  1. Add New Mexico State and UTEP, FBS schools in their geographical region with basketball legacies.
  
  2. Add two other G5 schools from Texas (UTSA, UNT, Texas State, Rice, SMU). There would be advantages to tapping into the Dallas, Houston, or San Antonio markets and, more broadly, into the Central Time Zone.
  
  3. Add Montana and Montana State, which have upper-tier FCS football programs and are in their geographical region.
  
  4. Add North and South Dakota State, which may be the nation's #1 and #2 FCS football programs, and would generate viewership in the Central Time Zone and the Upper Midwest.
  .
• The MWC could take a "Chinese menu" approach and take "two from column A, two from column B," etc. (e.g., two Texas schools and two FCS schools).
  

.

MWC losing San Diego St and UNLV would hurt. There is no real way to slice up the G5 to make them much more profitable per school. I’d say, at that point, the MWC should add 4-6 of Navy (football), North Texas, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and UTSA. Maybe Wichita St as well.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Now that the CFP looks like it is going to expand to 12, I think we will see Notre Dame officially stay independent.
Although the B1G has had conversations with Oregon and Washington, I believe these are more exploratory in nature and ultimately serve to destabilize the Pac-12. Ultimately for financial reasons, the B1G decides to stay at 16.
The Big 12 at this point has no leverage on the corner 4 schools and decides to stay at 12.
The SEC and ACC also stand pat.
I'm going back and forth as to whether the Pac-12 will stay at 10 or expand to 12, but my gut tells me ESPN is pushing for 12 (based on some comments by Burke Magnus). Therefore, the Pac-12 adds SDSU for the SoCal market and UNLV for the Vegas market. SMU is not selected as ESPN tells the Pac-12 to steer towards Vegas and leave their AAC property alone.
The MW looks around but doesn't find anyone that moves the needle and decides to stay at 10.
Gonzaga is then faced with a further dilemma: with the Pac-12 and Big 12 stable at 12 and the MW and WCC both weakened, the Zags decide to join the Big East.
The WCC elects to add Seattle to get back to 9 schools (at the behest of St. Mary's who would prefer to keep the league small).
The WAC elects to stay at 10 members.

Ok, for this thread, I guess we're presuming that the PAC, B12, and ACC, all survive this round of realignment.

If so, then for this round (this year-ish)

1.) I think the B10 will either stay at 16 or add Stanford and 1 other school - I think it will be AZ state, but it could also be Colorado. I don't think OR and WA are moving this time around.
2.) Same with the B12. I think they'll only add if the lose schools. If they lose the eastern schools, they'll likely backfill with western ones.
3.) I think the SEC either stays at 16, or adds Kansas plus one more school - most likely OK state or a Texas school.
4.) I think that the ACC avoids losing any schools this go round - though FSU and Clemson (and maybe Miami) may find a way out. I do think they should be inviting Cin, WV, UCF, and Memphis - even if they don't lose schools. And if they do lose 1 or more Florida schools, add USF as well.
5.) the PAC will stay at ten unless they lose 2 schools, in which case they add SDSU plus at least one other. I think gonzaga, hawaii, BSU, and others from the MWC are possibilities. I don't think they'll go after any B12 schools or Texas schools. Though AAU member Rice might have an outside chance.
6.) MWC hasn't seemed very interested in expanding eastward - into Texas, for example - So I don't know if they backfill if PAC takes a couple, but they could I suppose.
7.) I really don't think Gonzaga joins the big east - distance is really a thing. I think PAC, or maybe MWC, is more likely in their future.

(09-04-2022 10:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I don’t care if they end up wrong. I like reading these threads. It’s better informed speculation on the domino effect than most.

I agree, IWULT. Shizzle does a quality job with his "next dominoes" posts. I enjoy reading them and the responses.

Threads like the Next Dominoes and YouTube channels like Gold and Blue Dude and Depressed Ginger, all provide derivative but nonetheless entertaining content.

I believe the B10 is done this time around. I think their next move will be to 20. I think they have identified 3 PAC schools in Oregon, Washington, and Stanford. They really want ND and will wait until they join a conference whether it be B10 or ACC (I don’t believe the SEC is in play for ND). Should ND join ACC over B10, I see B10 then adding the 3 plus Cal or Colorado (maybe Arizona) as the ACC will be safe until the GoR are up.

The PAC-12 (until B10 expands again) will add the 2 stated to get to 12 again with the potential of going to 16 if they can find 4 more. I’m not sure who would be the 4 with the exception of New Mexico and maybe Nevada. I could see a combination of 2 Hawaii, Utah State, Colorado State, or some lesser Texas school.

Mountain West could add UTEP and New Mexico State to backfill the loss of SDSU and UNLV. I don’t believe they would take the FCS call ups as I’m sure they feel above other FBS conferences.

C-USA would then be back to replenishing again and hoping WKU and Middle Tennessee St bolting this time around for MAC. There options are very limited and would only be FCS call ups. Can they get the 4 Dakota schools and Missouri St? For survival and stability, I believe this is their only move if they can get it as I don’t see anyone trying to poach the Dakotas anytime soon.

If that were to happen, MVFC (Summit League and possibly MVC) take hits and not sure where they go.

I will be beyond shocked if the current version of the PAC seriously adds teams like UNLV and SDSU to get back to 12. Especially now that 12 teams isn't needed for a conference championship game. If the Big Ten is done taking PAC schools, the PAC will just stay at 10. No matter how much this board has an odd belief that these G5 teams actually have value to P5 conferences.

The only scenario I see for UNLV or SDSU getting invited to the PAC is if the BIG further raids the PAC for Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal, the Four Corners schools go to the Big 12, and Oregon State and Washington State decide to technically keep the PAC name alive rather than joining the MWC. (Which would really only be possible if Washington State and Oregon State can keep the PAC alive and resolve the basketball tournament credits issue with the NCAA.)

There recently has not been a move with as much noise as Oregon and Washington to the Big 10 than hasn't ended up happening. Yeah, I know there was stuff like Missouri loudly and unsuccessfully trying to get into the Big 10 in 2010 , but schools in the 2020s have been pretty quiet unless their move is practically etched in stone.

I think UW and Oregon are on their way to the Big 10. I suspect Stanford and Cal also move.
After that the 4 corners move to the Big 12.
Oregon St. and WSU are forced to join the MWC.
That will be it for this year.

(09-04-2022 09:48 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Now that the CFP looks like it is going to expand to 12, I think we will see Notre Dame officially stay independent.
Although the B1G has had conversations with Oregon and Washington, I believe these are more exploratory in nature and ultimately serve to destabilize the Pac-12. Ultimately for financial reasons, the B1G decides to stay at 16.
The Big 12 at this point has no leverage on the corner 4 schools and decides to stay at 12.
The SEC and ACC also stand pat.
I'm going back and forth as to whether the Pac-12 will stay at 10 or expand to 12, but my gut tells me ESPN is pushing for 12 (based on some comments by Burke Magnus). Therefore, the Pac-12 adds SDSU for the SoCal market and UNLV for the Vegas market. SMU is not selected as ESPN tells the Pac-12 to steer towards Vegas and leave their AAC property alone.
The MW looks around but doesn't find anyone that moves the needle and decides to stay at 10.
Gonzaga is then faced with a further dilemma: with the Pac-12 and Big 12 stable at 12 and the MW and WCC both weakened, the Zags decide to join the Big East.
The WCC elects to add Seattle to get back to 9 schools (at the behest of St. Mary's who would prefer to keep the league small).
The WAC elects to stay at 10 members.

That's a lot of talking just to give a reason for Gonzaga to join the Big East. I still don't think that's going to happen.

I don't believe any of this. But just for giggles and laughs, here goes. The PAC will be broken up after a diabolical plan developed by ESPN, B12 and the ACC in order to stop the B1G in their tracks and keep the two LA schools on an island.
1. The B12 take the 4 corner schools moving to 16.
2. The ACC takes the academic all stars (Cal & Stanford) and the Northwestern darlings (Oregon & Washington).
3. ESPN signs B12 up with a sweet deal which starts out to $60M per school with possible bonuses based on viewership and inflation triggers.
4. ESPN renegotiates the ACC deal to the tune of $60+ per school with possible bonuses based on viewership and inflation triggers.
5. ESPN and the ACC agree to expand the ACC network to include B12 content thus creating a network for cable and steaming services that stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the Florida Keys, from sunny California to the urban Northeast. The B12 becomes an equal partner when B12 and new additions to the ACC agree to build up the network with the same financial investments the ACC schools have already done. It remains the ACCN but ACC now means, "America Coast to Coast Network".
6. The ACC and B12 now take in an average of $15M per school in ACCN money each year.
7. ESPN now has content for all it's channels, streaming etc. from coast to coast that will dominate the sports world.
8. The B1G wonders what happened to their master plan.
9. The SEC remain the king of college football and work out scheduling agreements with the B12 and ACC for all sports without the need for cooperation with the B1G.

I know crazy talk, but I was bored and I can dream!

I could see the PAC adding SDSU and stopping at 11. With no clear-cut candidate for #12, there is no need to go any further. CCG don't require 12 teams anymore.

The only problem with 11 teams is that not everyone can play 9 conference football games. Maybe they could decide all 11 teams should play a 10-game round-robin football schedule to increase TV inventory.

(09-05-2022 02:25 PM)goofus Wrote:  I could see the PAC adding SDSU and stopping at 11. With no clear-cut candidate for #12, there is no need to go any further. CCG don't require 12 teams anymore.

The only problem with 11 teams is that not everyone can play 9 conference football games. At least 1 team would have to play 8 or 10 teams. Or maybe they would decide for all 11 teams would play a 10-game round-robin football schedule to increase TV inventory.

Going to 11 teams seems like an even less likely scenario to me than going to 10. 11 teams doesn’t even allow the conference to split into divisions. And you mentioned the scheduling headaches it causes.

What does SDSU really bring to the table that any other MWC team doesn’t? All the MWC teams seem about equally worthless to me. Any MWC team would be a money loser for the PAC-just another mouth to feed for the conference. I don’t know why this board doesn’t understand that.

(09-04-2022 10:15 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Give it up.

Stick with your day job.

Become a weatherman----- they keep their job even when wrong.

Actually no worse than 95% of the posts here. Give us a counter argument.

(09-05-2022 02:33 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(09-05-2022 02:25 PM)goofus Wrote:  I could see the PAC adding SDSU and stopping at 11. With no clear-cut candidate for #12, there is no need to go any further. CCG don't require 12 teams anymore.

The only problem with 11 teams is that not everyone can play 9 conference football games. At least 1 team would have to play 8 or 10 teams. Or maybe they would decide for all 11 teams would play a 10-game round-robin football schedule to increase TV inventory.

What does SDSU really bring to the table that any other MWC team doesn’t?

Easy question.

They're located in SoCal - a massive recruiting/alumni hotbed for PAC-12 schools that is now vacated in the footprint.

San Diego is the highest ranked DMA (#27) with zero P5/NFL/NHL/NBA competition.

SDSU MBB has top-30 attendance that would rank 2nd in the P12.

SDSU FB has won 10+ games in 5 of the past 7 seasons - finishing top-25 twice.

SDSU MBB has been a top-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 8 of the past 12 years. They've finished in the AP Top-16 in 4 of those.

Facilities. Brand new FB stadium. MBB arena a frequent NCAA Tournament host.

(09-05-2022 02:25 PM)goofus Wrote:  I could see the PAC adding SDSU and stopping at 11. With no clear-cut candidate for #12, there is no need to go any further. CCG don't require 12 teams anymore.

The only problem with 11 teams is that not everyone can play 9 conference football games. Maybe they could decide all 11 teams should play a 10-game round-robin football schedule to increase TV inventory.

That can work too.

Several schools get put on notice to improve their short comings

I think SDSU is a no brainer