(09-02-2022 03:41 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 03:24 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  C'mon...we know AAC is gonna drop... Their good teams will just be beating down the likes of Rice and Charlotte...

I assume this will come with a fatter payout for all schools too

You are basing this on what we know now. What if other conferences lose teams and some P5 schools get squeezed out, then join the AAC. As we have seen, anything is possible as the schools chase the money.

Based on what's happened in the past though, that's not too likely. If there's still a few teams left in a raided P5 league, they're more likely to pull in G5 teams than the other way around. So if the ACC or Big 12 lost some more, they're likely to raid the AAC rather than find shelter there. Which is good for the SBC because it weakens a G5 competitor.

(09-02-2022 03:41 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 03:24 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  C'mon...we know AAC is gonna drop... Their good teams will just be beating down the likes of Rice and Charlotte...

I assume this will come with a fatter payout for all schools too

You are basing this on what we know now. What if other conferences lose teams and some P5 schools get squeezed out, then join the AAC. As we have seen, anything is possible as the schools chase the money.

Yes, anything is possible, but I think there's also a chance this could stabilize some things. If a conference like AAC thinks they have a shot at a CFP slot, why add more teams to compete for that slot? It just lowers the odds for each already existing school.

And why would a P5 team leave for AAC if they have higher odds of getting one of the slots by staying where they are now?

There needs to be clear mutual benefit for both the team moving *and* all the members of the conference they are moving to.

(09-02-2022 03:32 PM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Not going to lie, in my decade and a half of JMU fandom, I have never been more excited for JMU football than this moment.

Amen!

It just got easier for Oklahoma State than Oklahoma to make the playoff every year going forward.

From Chris Vannini - The Athletic:

Quote:Good day to slow down superconferences
If you hate superconference realignment and want conferences to survive, today is a good day. The Big Ten and SEC could have done their own playoff if they really wanted to. Those two leagues will get the most teams in and continue to make more money than the other leagues.

But being outside the Power 2 isn't as much of a sinking ship now as it felt before. This was always the case and it's why the ACC/Pac-12 pushback to expansion was always shortsighted. This is the best thing that could happen to those leagues now, and they finally realized it.

(09-02-2022 04:10 PM)jjthebutcher Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 03:32 PM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Not going to lie, in my decade and a half of JMU fandom, I have never been more excited for JMU football than this moment.

Amen!

X10 this is awesome

Without a doubt, this is great news.

I do think that this will lead to a continued move toward division-less play in the power conferences. By ensuring that the top two teams play for the conference championship game, a P5 conference all but guarantees that they will have one of the top 6 conference champions. With divisions, a conference like PAC 12 or potentially the ACC run the risk of a championship game upset that results in a conference champion that isn't one of the top 6. Unlikely, but possible.

It probably doesn't matter as much in the G5 conferences, because it's less likely that they'll have two highly ranked teams to pair in a championship game.

(09-02-2022 05:56 PM)We Are the Dukes of JMU Wrote:  Without a doubt, this is great news.

I do think that this will lead to a continued move toward division-less play in the power conferences. By ensuring that the top two teams play for the conference championship game, a P5 conference all but guarantees that they will have one of the top 6 conference champions. With divisions, a conference like PAC 12 or potentially the ACC run the risk of a championship game upset that results in a conference champion that isn't one of the top 6. Unlikely, but possible.

It probably doesn't matter as much in the G5 conferences, because it's less likely that they'll have two highly ranked teams to pair in a championship game.

Its not clear yet how this all sorts out.

I've seen suggestions the top conferences may do away with their CCG entirely to reduce the risk that a top team takes a loss. It will be all about maximizing the number of slots for them.

(09-02-2022 04:01 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 03:41 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 03:24 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  C'mon...we know AAC is gonna drop... Their good teams will just be beating down the likes of Rice and Charlotte...

I assume this will come with a fatter payout for all schools too

You are basing this on what we know now. What if other conferences lose teams and some P5 schools get squeezed out, then join the AAC. As we have seen, anything is possible as the schools chase the money.

Yes, anything is possible, but I think there's also a chance this could stabilize some things. If a conference like AAC thinks they have a shot at a CFP slot, why add more teams to compete for that slot? It just lowers the odds for each already existing school.

And why would a P5 team leave for AAC if they have higher odds of getting one of the slots by staying where they are now?

There needs to be clear mutual benefit for both the team moving *and* all the members of the conference they are moving to.

Yes it could happen that way. You could also have the PAC end up with 4 leftovers like Washington St, Oregon St, Cal, and Arizona. They would have zero negotiating power and be desperate to join a conference. It will be interesting for sure. Maybe the Sun Belt goes nuts and adds West cost teams from the MWC. Just follow the media money and that will give us the answers.

Seems like the latest realignment scared the Pac12 and ACC to agreement of a 12 team playoff with 6 autobids.

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What really matters is that there will be an actual championship in I-A, we have a real path to that championship, and even the "G5" conferences are about to get some mega playoff $$$.

(I wonder how the Sun Belt will dole that out...?)

Sometimes crazy and unpredictable stuff happens but if the Pac-12 gets majorly poached further it seems like two by far most likely outcomes. Most likely the leftover Pac-12 schools pull from the MWC and possibly AAC/SBC. If not that, next most likely by far seems like the leftovers going to the MWC whether it's just the more cost efficient route or if it's due to a vote to dissolve the Pac before everyone leaves.

Either one would be a positive for the G5 with these expanded playoffs. Either the Pac-12 is much weaker and more likely to miss out on an autobid some years, or it's gone and there are always at least two autobids for the G5. Either way pretty much leaves a super 2, power 2, and G5.

Oh and also, good news for Hart and a few others... This could possibly lead to more teams abandoning the FCS games. I wouldn't bet on it though, maybe for the MAC and CUSA who need their champ to really build a resume. I'd think the SBC/AAC/MWC teams with a shot at getting in would probably just be thinking they can feel pretty good about if they can manage to win the conference with one loss or going undefeated.

I'm hearing Gill will be in Bridgeforth tomorrow.

(09-02-2022 08:28 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Sometimes crazy and unpredictable stuff happens but if the Pac-12 gets majorly poached further it seems like two by far most likely outcomes. Most likely the leftover Pac-12 schools pull from the MWC and possibly AAC/SBC. If not that, next most likely by far seems like the leftovers going to the MWC whether it's just the more cost efficient route or if it's due to a vote to dissolve the Pac before everyone leaves.

Either one would be a positive for the G5 with these expanded playoffs. Either the Pac-12 is much weaker and more likely to miss out on an autobid some years, or it's gone and there are always at least two autobids for the G5. Either way pretty much leaves a super 2, power 2, and G5.

I'm not sure if a decimated PAC would have that much power. With the CFP change, the only advantage left is $. And if they lose all their big schools/assets, will they have a media deal left?

Things are about to get VERY interesting the next few years.

(09-02-2022 08:53 PM)Bill Wrote:  I'm hearing Gill will be in Bridgeforth tomorrow.

Sounds like it’s official, I wouldn’t mind him dropping in with the commandos to deliver the game ball.

(09-02-2022 10:22 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(09-02-2022 08:28 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Sometimes crazy and unpredictable stuff happens but if the Pac-12 gets majorly poached further it seems like two by far most likely outcomes. Most likely the leftover Pac-12 schools pull from the MWC and possibly AAC/SBC. If not that, next most likely by far seems like the leftovers going to the MWC whether it's just the more cost efficient route or if it's due to a vote to dissolve the Pac before everyone leaves.

Either one would be a positive for the G5 with these expanded playoffs. Either the Pac-12 is much weaker and more likely to miss out on an autobid some years, or it's gone and there are always at least two autobids for the G5. Either way pretty much leaves a super 2, power 2, and G5.

I'm not sure if a decimated PAC would have that much power. With the CFP change, the only advantage left is $. And if they lose all their big schools/assets, will they have a media deal left?

Things are about to get VERY interesting the next few years.

Yeah it'll be interesting to see how it goes if they are left with just four teams or less. One thing about if they take from other conferences though is that it'd let them and those new schools put together the exact conference they want including possibly leaving out some MWC teams, instead of the leftovers just joining the MWC. Either way is really going to suck for the leftovers and their media money.

I think this will slow realignment. Why be part of a mega conference that makes it harder to get into a playoff. But of course money talks a lot.

This is huge for the Sunbelt and JMU

All of the at large spots will be taken by the second and third place teams from the SEC, BIG 10 and the other P5 conferences.