(09-20-2022 02:12 PM)Hootyhoo Wrote:  I really like Warnock but this is going to be close. Feels like kemp wins easy and Warnock/walker is a toss up. Abrams not conceding after the last governor's race hasn't aged very well. Other than his silly comercials and some "owning the libs" moves kemp has been fine I guess.


Mostly I'm just sick of the ads. Apparently walker is a homicidal maniac and Warnock literally hates Georgians and wants to destroy the country.

Up next - a month of ROBO-Calls

(09-20-2022 02:12 PM)Hootyhoo Wrote:  I really like Warnock but this is going to be close.

At least on television, Warnock projects a quiet, grandfatherly warmth and peace. That served him well against Loeffler and I’m sure it will again against Walker. With that said, he has been an automatic party-line vote in the Senate, and I think there are still a few more R’s than D’s in Georgia.

Quote:Feels like kemp wins easy and Warnock/walker is a toss up.

Agreed.

Quote:Abrams not conceding after the last governor's race hasn't aged very well.

Abrams’ main problem is that the more people get to know her, the less they like her. But yeah, her attempts to explain why Biden’s victory in 2020 was totally legit and above-aboard, but Kemp’s victory in 2018 was shady and fraudulent, have been a wipe-out. She really needs to never mention those subjects again. And if she’s asked about them, she should simply ignore it and change the topic.

Quote:Other than his silly comercials and some "owning the libs" moves kemp has been fine I guess.

A true do-nothing, say-nothing Governor. The closest thing you can be to a non-entity and still get ahead in politics. It’s honestly strange how it’s all worked out for him so far. And now with the Biden shitshow rolling on, he’s basically guaranteed to get re-elected. With a little luck he could win by 10 points.

Quote:Mostly I'm just sick of the ads. Apparently walker is a homicidal maniac and Warnock literally hates Georgians and wants to destroy the country.

So glad that I don’t watch TV anymore. I honestly don’t get why anyone does.

The Atlantic's poll (which is very left leaning) has Walker +2. They had Warnock +3 2 months ago. Another 5 point swing in a poll towards Walker.

It also has Kep well ahead by 8.

Marist has a poll that has Warnock +2, but Kemp +11. In no way is Kemp going to finish that far ahead and Walker not win.

Even in the sh*tty polls, the 30-60 day trend is very bad for the democrats.

(09-20-2022 01:02 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  AM, I believe you to be wrong that the right now needs to do the personality thing better. The majority of people have stopped listening to the media.

The media are not the voters. The candidates have started to get on message on the issues. Inflation, Crime and Immigration are the big three and those pounding that message are starting in many races, to build a lead.

Nice strawman you've constructed there, Mr. Exedrin. NOBODY has said or is saying that the impending victory will be permanent. That's leftist thinking right there. It was your side of the aisle that was saying that.....until they over reached and became silent when they saw what was happening.

It was the cackling Cajun that said when zerO was reelected (I think that's right) The GOP may not win another election for 50 years.

4 short years later we had the Drumpf. The loons always overreach and their current zeal for criminals over families and crime victims is their latest brain dead boondoggle.

They'll pay at the ballot box for ruining this once great Country. And dearly.

(09-20-2022 01:49 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(09-20-2022 01:02 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  AM, I believe you to be wrong that the right now needs to do the personality thing better. The majority of people have stopped listening to the media.

The media are not the voters. The candidates have started to get on message on the issues. Inflation, Crime and Immigration are the big three and those pounding that message are starting in many races, to build a lead.

Nice strawman you've constructed there, Mr. Exedrin. NOBODY has said or is saying that the impending victory will be permanent. That's leftist thinking right there. It was your side of the aisle that was saying that.....until they over reached and became silent when they saw what was happening.

Really, strawman? What happened in Jan of 2017? Nothing. Was it the left at the Capitol on Jan 6th 2021? So tell me again who has a distorted view of our political system. The simple fact that you believe most Americans are partisan as you are is telling. Research does not agree with you

You're joking with that, right?

You don't recall the burning schit, the smashing of windows at innocent Starbucks and CVS's and others? The riots and people starting fights or just cheap-shotting anyone they could ID as having been to the Inaugural, tearing down Historic Statues and all the other "mostly peaceful" destruction? Then it just carried on into the Summer of Love, CHAZ/CHOP, the war on ICE, chasing cops from their precinct offices, pot shots at GOP Headquarters in various States, the *****-hat march, then the June march that occupied the Capital (They were given $50 citations not a year plus in solitary) and on and on. We had years of this crap and Billions in damage, not a whiff of which has been rebuilt.

But yea, Jan. 6 some people got out of hand and broke some windows, roamed around, stole/borrowed a SOTH envelope. Few hours later the election was certified and the governments business went on as usual. The attempted merder of the ditzy bartender excepted.

Some ya'll have very short and selective memories.

I know, I know but muh polls...


Noticed on realclear this morning that the Nevada race nobody is really talking about is very much polling at a coinflip or leaning R now.
Of the 6 polls done in the last month, Laxalt is leading in 4 of them, with Cortez Masto +1 and +7 in the other two.

I have had more confidence in NV than PA for a few weeks now.

We take NV, they get PA; GA & AZ are splits.

Also we pick off WI.

(09-23-2022 08:00 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I have had more confidence in NV than PA for a few weeks now.

We take NV, they get PA; GA & AZ are splits.

Also we pick off WI.

If the incumbent-party holds serve in all the other races, I think your predictions here would result in 51R, 49D. That would represent a huge fail — or at least, a missed-opportunity — for the GOP, if that happens.

(09-23-2022 08:00 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I have had more confidence in NV than PA for a few weeks now.

We take NV, they get PA; GA & AZ are splits.

Also we pick off WI.

AZ is the other one I can't figure out where all the D confidence is coming from. Fivethirtyeight's model has had it at roughly 80% for ages, and Kelly is always polling with the lead, but that lead has been inside the MoE in just about all of the polls. Wouldn't take much to flip that a couple percentage points.

It's hard not to look at polls. That's all we have to try and gauge where things are at, regarding races. But the polling over the past few cycles has gotten much less reliable.

This article, by Robert C. Cahaly, the chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group, says that a big part of the issue is what he calls 'submerged voters.'

Quote:Democrats will likely experience more political opposition at the ballot box than expected, thanks to an army of voters that won’t be easy to track.

President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s recent attacks against Conservatives are motivating a large coalition of hard-to-poll Americans to vote for the Republican Party in the midterms, according to Robert C. Cahaly, the chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group.

“If the election were tomorrow, Republicans should feel extremely optimistic,” Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “How should they feel in six weeks? There is a lot that can happen in that much time. But for right now, they should feel extremely optimistic.”

Cahaly labeled this new group of voters “submerged voters” in a Twitter thread posted Saturday. These voters will be even harder to poll than in previous elections when left-wing attacks caused supporters of former President Donald Trump to avoid political surveys but not the ballot box, Cahaly tweeted.

Quote:
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

Quote:Biden’s recent speech, where he demonized Trump supporters in front of a red-stained White House, flanked by two active duty U.S. Marines in uniform, and the aggressive actions by the U.S. Justice Department against “MAGA Republicans” will push these “submerged voters” voters deeper underground, Cahaly said. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls,” he tweeted.

Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

“At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” Cahaly tweeted. “The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.'”

Quote:Cahaly told the Daily Caller that voter turnout will likely exceed typical midterm numbers, measuring “somewhere between 2018‘s turnout and 2020.” However, due to the attacks against Conservative voters, pollsters will have a more challenging time accurately estimating how large a voting bloc these “submerged voters” are -similar to pollsters getting caught off guard with the over 150 million votes cast in 2020.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fda...r-group%2F