(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

(08-25-2022 04:57 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

I don't see the money in it and I don't see how the money can justify the crazy travel for an A&P Big 12+ Conference. 4 just makes more sense than 3. And I think 5 means the last 3 are too small relative to the Rich 2. Also, there just aren't many more G5s that can be promoted. Probably everyone but Boise would rank at the bottom of the P5. SDSU, SMU, Memphis, USF and maybe Temple, UConn and Fresno would be close to the bottom of the P5. That's only 8 possible schools.

(08-25-2022 03:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  The great thing about making making predictions 5 years in advance is that no one will remember them if he's wrong, and he'll never let us forget if he's right.

Plus, if he's right then he gets a Star from the LA times.

(08-25-2022 05:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:57 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

I don't see the money in it and I don't see how the money can justify the crazy travel for an A&P Big 12+ Conference. 4 just makes more sense than 3. And I think 5 means the last 3 are too small relative to the Rich 2. Also, there just aren't many more G5s that can be promoted. Probably everyone but Boise would rank at the bottom of the P5. SDSU, SMU, Memphis, USF and maybe Temple, UConn and Fresno would be close to the bottom of the P5. That's only 8 possible schools.

I think you could include all the service academies as there are fan bases & pride there…..assuming they want to be a part of this level. Probably CSU & UNLV too. I am sure I am forgetting others. I honestly haven’t added up how many more schools it would take to get to 80, but think there are enough to get there & them be competitive.

(08-25-2022 04:57 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

The issue, I think, is that it's easy to see how the SEC and B1G get to 20, and it's easy to see how the big 12 gets to 16 (4 corners), but the 10 leftovers in the ACC will really struggle to backfill. I could very well see the big 12 taking the 4 corners now then 4 ACC leftovers whenever they become available, and the rest just go to the big east and play a lot of basketball.

(08-25-2022 05:38 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 03:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  The great thing about making making predictions 5 years in advance is that no one will remember them if he's wrong, and he'll never let us forget if he's right.

Plus, if he's right then he gets a Star from the LA times.

This line is going to be the new Realignment meme.

I think the B1G takes UO UW to force the corners to go to the Big 12 in a take it or leave it, because Stanford Cal ain't salvaging that (and B1G is not painted as blowing up PAC because the Big 12 did it too). B1G can then scoop the Bay teams dirt cheap if they choose... Or they let them go independent for seven years and re-evaluate once NDs TV deal expires.

I think Cal/Stanford can go ACC as FO with Olympics in the Big West. Or they go Indy if they can get scheduling agreements with ND. They'd play each other rivalry weekend but they need to schedule multiple Big 12 and B1G schools every year.

ACC FO could switch the schedule to a 1+7/7.

Cal/Stanford
UNC/Duke
WF/NCSU
VaTech/UVa
BC/Cuse
Pitt/UL
Miami/FSU
GaTech/Clemson

Works perfectly for the next 7-10 years.

(08-25-2022 05:49 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 05:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:57 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

I don't see the money in it and I don't see how the money can justify the crazy travel for an A&P Big 12+ Conference. 4 just makes more sense than 3. And I think 5 means the last 3 are too small relative to the Rich 2. Also, there just aren't many more G5s that can be promoted. Probably everyone but Boise would rank at the bottom of the P5. SDSU, SMU, Memphis, USF and maybe Temple, UConn and Fresno would be close to the bottom of the P5. That's only 8 possible schools.

I think you could include all the service academies as there are fan bases & pride there…..assuming they want to be a part of this level. Probably CSU & UNLV too. I am sure I am forgetting others. I honestly haven’t added up how many more schools it would take to get to 80, but think there are enough to get there & them be competitive.

The service academies couldn't consistently compete. CSU and UNLV just rank really low on all the value metrics.

(08-25-2022 05:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:57 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:09 PM)No Bull Wrote:  The PAC is toast. The ACC will survive but will lose 4. They can backfill.

As much as I would prefer to see all 3 of the B12/PAC/ACC survive as more regionally sensible middle layer conferences. I think the odds are growing that there will be a consolidation down to just 2 mid tier which will likely fit in the new playoff system better. I am not sold on the idea of a P3 with B12 absorbing all leftovers as that assumes all three conferences are likely going above 20 & I don’t think money is there to go above 20 & I don’t see ESPN & FOX sharing the 3rd conference.

I think the odds are better ending with the top 80 schools in top 4 conferences.

Multiple ways to get there after B1G & SEC get to 20.

You can have 2 conferences focused regionally 1 EAST & 1WEST or you can have two conferences with 4 5 team regional pods spread coast to coast. TV probably prefers the second option to better cover all time zones.

I don't see the money in it and I don't see how the money can justify the crazy travel for an A&P Big 12+ Conference. 4 just makes more sense than 3. And I think 5 means the last 3 are too small relative to the Rich 2. Also, there just aren't many more G5s that can be promoted. Probably everyone but Boise would rank at the bottom of the P5. SDSU, SMU, Memphis, USF and maybe Temple, UConn and Fresno would be close to the bottom of the P5. That's only 8 possible schools.

Put some of those schools in a conference that matters, playing teams that matter and see what happens again. USF home game attendance against quality out of state opponents has eclipsed 65,000. That won’t happen playing the crappy AAC teams.

(08-25-2022 05:38 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 03:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  The great thing about making making predictions 5 years in advance is that no one will remember them if he's wrong, and he'll never let us forget if he's right.

Plus, if he's right then he gets a Star from the LA times.

Or he gets comped in Vegas!

Jon Wilner
@wilnerhotline
·
5h
Prediction: If this prediction is true, Wilner will, in fact, only be covering UNLV home games - all sports - and staying at the Aria (penthouse, comped)
Quote Tweet
GREG SWAIM ??
@GSwaim
· 22h
Prediction: @wilnerhotline will be covering the #MWC exclusively in the near future, and will report often how the MWC will be poaching the #SEC and #B1G. ??

(08-25-2022 12:14 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Fun to see media types jumping on the Conference No. 3 bandwagon many of us have been espousing on this here message board.

I agree. It's like once the bias starts to get out of the way the path things are going becomes clearer for them that were fighting against it.

(08-25-2022 01:28 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 11:47 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Two tweets posted this morning by Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News point to the conference realignment endgame being three super conferences: Big Ten, SEC and Big 12.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...Dop7ArAAAA

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...TSmrArAAAA

Wilner's been reading JRSEC.

Fact

(08-25-2022 03:23 PM)Huan Wrote:  it was only yesterday when Wilner suggested b12 programs would /could join the pac.

Which is kind of amazing considering how clear Kevin Warren has been about his intentions for the B1G. No one from the Big 12 is jumping into that.

(08-25-2022 03:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 03:48 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 11:47 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Two tweets posted this morning by Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News point to the conference realignment endgame being three super conferences: Big Ten, SEC and Big 12.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...Dop7ArAAAA

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...TSmrArAAAA

Wilner is in step 3 of the Five Stages of Grief. He’s past denial and anger; he’s now negotiating a home for each PAC school. Interesting how this is the same solution as JRsec.

I'd say he has entered acceptance. Negotiating was thinking adding WAC schools might work!

Now we just need Canzano to at least move past stage 1 for his sake.

(08-25-2022 11:47 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Two tweets posted this morning by Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News point to the conference realignment endgame being three super conferences: Big Ten, SEC and Big 12.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...Dop7ArAAAA

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status...TSmrArAAAA

^^^ [b]This is good news for Oregon State and Washington State!!!!