(08-25-2022 06:52 PM)TalonsUpPuckDown Wrote: ... But is the time horizon 2-3 years or 15-20 years - would the raiding of March Madness happen before the ACC's GOR runs out in '36 (again, you would have a better sense than me)? ...
First the CFP has to be ironed out. That is a pile of money sitting on the table where it's not even an argument over how its spread out between admin costs and the conferences/schools ... but rather, the pile of money is just sitting there, not being picked up.
The current CPF contract runs through 2025/26, so if they can't get unanimous agreement to change the current contract, the new version of the CFP rolls out for the 2026/27 season.
Then the current NCAA Tourney contract runs through 2032.
That window between 2026/27 and 22031/32 is when the question of whether or not to breakaway from the NCAA Tourney will have to be sorted out.
But the NCAA is going to try to avoid a breakaway if they can, and if there is something they can get done "now", before serious attention has turned to that issue ... it wouldn't be surprising if that gets pushed through sooner rather than later.
And what if they have side-effects that hit single-sports conferences harder than multi-sports conferences? Well, the conferences they are trying to keep "in house" are all multi-sports conferences, so any special challenges that a reform creates for single-sports conferences might not get the attention they would "normally" have.
I know that a lot of people who talk about conference realignment want to talk about "big bang" changes, but enough smaller scale reforms can start to have big effects once they start to accumulate.
All of that is a long winded way of saying I think it's
plausible that some changes may be in the wind that will make life harder for single sports conference.
Quote: So if Saylor knows something is about to happen and is telegraphing this to the world via a blog post about the formation of MAC Hockey then yeah, I agree his scenario is relevant in the here and now.
It doesn't have to be as definite as that. It could be that he is seeing some proposals being made and then hearing from the single sports conference that Miami is part of what kinds of challenges the proposals present to a single sports conference.
Quote: I'm just not sure the AD of a MAC program has that kind of inside info AND is hinting at it publicly in such an obtuse manner.
Quote: However, this is also an AD whose hockey program has been on the skids for going on 7 years and is now in cost containment mode in the most expensive and competitive conference in college hockey. OK, 2nd most expensive behind the B1G but unquestionably the most competitive. Hence my interpretation of his comments.
Your second part kind of says exactly why the AD of a MAC program would
have that kind of information. The MAC is going to be seeing the proposals that various parties are sending around to fix this or that identified "challenge". And the Miami and WMU AD would be hearing from their conference mates in the NCHC what problems some of those proposals would present to the NCHC.
And, of course, as part of looking at whether or not Miami should switch to the CCHA, the Miami AD would also be seeing whether those same problems are also likely to face the CCHA.
And he would have heard over and over again, "why doesn't Miami just join the CCHA?", so it's something that is going to be on his mind when he it thinking about the path ahead.
It's not like the NCAA would be
targetting getting ride of single sports conferences, more a problem of side-effects of reforms aimed at doing something else ... similar to the way the move to clean up the issues of cross-division DI/DIII schools that led to several multi-division schools playing scholarship Division 1 soccer, lacrosse and hockey schools having to work very hard to win a grandfather clause.
Quote: Would I love to see MAC Hockey? You betcha!! But I'm not holding my breath.
Thing is, suppose that something has a 10% chance of happening that makes it hard for single sports conferences to survive. That's serious enough that an AD with an important sport in a single sport conference has to give it some thought.
But still, 90% chance it comes to nothing.